Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Featured Replies

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

To the moon. Let's fucking go.

all accelerative no retardation

  • Replies 18.1k
  • Views 1.4m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

BTW - this is probably the single most important economic concept for Americans to understand and think about. It's the reason why we alone can do what we alone can do. 
Exorbitant Privilege

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I was saying it tongue in cheek. It's just funny how everyone these days seems to be selling an opinion and so many of them conflict.

He seems like someone who has predicted 24 of the last 3 market drops.

I figured your post was tongue in cheek, but I answered for the benefit of lurkers who maybe didn't know.  From listening to Dalio in interviews, videos he's produced, and things he has written, he does not strike me as "someone who has predicted 24 of the last 3 market drops".  He is a pretty sober thinker.  It's probably why he was so successful with his investing/hedge fund.

10 minutes ago, bernorange said:

It's probably why he was so successful with his investing/hedge fund.

Bookies make money whether you win or lose.

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Who the fuck is that assclown?

Inspirational book author cum youtube content creator

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bookies make money whether you win or lose.

BridgewaterAssociatesCumulativeReturns.p

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Bookies make money whether you win or lose.

spacer.png

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Lol.  So much genius.

How I tied the market! Subscribe to my newsletter!

Fucking hedgies.  Literal con men.  You could just park it in index funds and save a couple of hundred basis points.

Something to be said for smooth returns tho

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Fucking hedgies.  Literal con men.  You could just park it in index funds and save a couple of hundred basis points.

Well where is the fun in that?

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Well where is the fun in that?

Making money without lame ass effort

6 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

BTW - this is probably the single most important economic concept for Americans to understand and think about. It's the reason why we alone can do what we alone can do. 
Exorbitant Privilege

Read that as few years ago.  Definitely super important we don’t fuck up this privileged, or over use it for various political aims.  Like overusing antibiotics.

But keep in mind that the primary reason RMB isn't picking up use is completely out of our control. It's not really up to us to "fuck up." If China decides to accept the domestic economy hit that floating RMB will bring, and proves to the world over many years that they're serious about it, they'll take a large chunk of global reserve usage and there's zero we can do about it.

1 hour ago, Sam Lin said:

But keep in mind that the primary reason RMB isn't picking up use is completely out of our control.

I don’t disagree.

On 8/10/2023 at 4:53 PM, nbmishoid said:

Read that as few years ago.  Definitely super important we don’t fuck up this privileged, or over use it for various political aims.  Like overusing antibiotics.

Congress:  I will need an aide to hold my Heineken

My brothers in Christ the current VIX futures is expiring in 2 days and its dropped 2 points to 15 for a $2k profit from an 8k margin position….(despite SPX itself going down over that time period!)

The next time vol spikes you must short it, again, for it is your duty as an american imperative. 

Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Is he hedging other investments or going full Wally?

As far as I can tell he is hyper-Wally on this bet, he is convinced that there is a correction. It would be interesting to see the strike and expiration dates. I mean you can buy out of the money puts than are near dated for $0.10. 
I would guess that he has them at least 6 months out, maybe up to 2025 (which is much more expensive), but you don't want to be right about a correction but miss out by having your options expire before the fall. It is not an easy game to play; it can make you rich and/or it can also drive you crazy.

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

As far as I can tell he is hyper-Wally

Never go full Wally.

29 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

but you don't want to be right about a correction but miss out by having your options expire before the fall. It is not an easy game to play; it can make you rich and/or it can also drive you crazy.

All of which was perfectly represented in The Big Short in regards his MBS short in the Great Recession.

 

 

16 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

20,000 contracts is a drop in the ocean for those tickers.  some individual strikes on each of those options chain have more open interest than that.  so you wont be able to parse which OI is his, not to mention the delay in the 13F filing (he might not even hold those instruments anymore).  also, the reporting requirement is only for long position, so he might be holding spreads, possibly even net bullish (e.g. short SPY 450P, long SPY 420P), where those short legs are not reported.

makes great headlines for his fund though

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

S&P 500 market cap is $33.5 TRILLION.

His puts equals around 0.002%.

 

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

20,000 contracts is a drop in the ocean for those tickers.  some individual strikes on each of those options chain have more open interest than that.  so you wont be able to parse which OI is his, not to mention the delay in the 13F filing (he might not even hold those instruments anymore).  also, the reporting requirement is only for long position, so he might be holding spreads, possibly even net bullish (e.g. short SPY 450P, long SPY 420P), where those short legs are not reported.

makes great headlines for his fund though

I get that - and the real issue is that the media is reporting the $1.6 billion notional value of the stocks underlying value. 
As an example I bought 20 SPY calls at the end of June - so 2,000 shares with a $440 strike, so I had a notional value of $880,000. My total cost was under $850; now these were 2 day expiration gambles that I guessed right on 1/2 of them and made $2,400. My total risk was less than 0.10% of the value of the stock. 
So Blurry could have a couple of million, maybe $10-$20 million riding on his bet, but it is misinformation when the media highlights the story with the $1.6 billion bet headline.

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

Edited by Wally Fairway

6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I found your problem

sources say MB is a homosexual member of the Ursid family, nttawwt

50 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I get that - and the real issue is that the media is reporting the $1.6 billion notional value of the stocks underlying value. 
As an example I bought 20 SPY calls at the end of June - so 2,000 shares with a $440 strike, so I had a notional value of $880,000. My total cost was under $850; now these were 2 day expiration gambles that I guessed right on 1/2 of them and made $2,400. My total risk was less than 0.10% of the value of the stock. 
So Blurry could have a couple of million, maybe $10-$20 million riding on his bet, but it is misinformation when the media highlights the story with the $1.6 billion bet headline.

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

Burry:

giphy.gif?resize=295,217&ssl=1

On 8/16/2023 at 8:53 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

I think that was the play.  Let the media spread the fear due to his name, sink the market for a couple of days, and make some solid money.  He could rinse and repeat a few times a year with the same result. 

On 8/15/2023 at 12:52 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

according to this article Burry's puts expire in the December/January time frame.

3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I think that was the play.  Let the media spread the fear due to his name, sink the market for a couple of days, and make some solid money.  He could rinse and repeat a few times a year with the same result. 

Yeah - it sucks that they can make that play, but I've seen Ackman to public to discuss (aka promote) his latest position

2 hours ago, WithoutAClue said:

according to this article Burry's puts expire in the December/January time frame.

again with the bad reporting using the notional value of the underlying stock, which I get but that is not the value or cost of the options he bought. I will say that I was tempted to jump on that bandwagon, but haven't yet.

17 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah - it sucks that they can make that play, but I've seen Ackman to public to discuss (aka promote) his latest position

cosmo kramer pimp GIF

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.