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9 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


Great advice. And have had plenty of similar conversations on Thursday and Friday. This is just completely out of the historical norm (Covid, GFC, tech wreck, black Monday) because it was completely self inflicted. 

Yep.  Fareed Zakaria called it an own goal.  In 2000-2002, 2008, and 2020, we knew exactly why what was happening was happening.  The first two were systemic issues and the third was a black swan from outside the markets.  It sucked, but it all made sense.

This is just the worst economic policy in the history of the civilized world, and a refusal to back away from it.  

Unless someone actually wants to break the global economy, which cannot be ruled out.

So, this is either accidentally or intentionally tanking everything when it was in really good shape a month ago, and I'm honestly not sure which is worse.

Edited by TexArcher

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19 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

And please understand, I am not enjoying this. Im just fascinated by once in a lifetime events like this and enjoy commenting on them. Im also positioned quite conservatively so I dont feel the anxiety some of you are feeling so its easier for me to comment on technical bounces, what I think will happen etc. 

This is where I’m at. This stuff fascinates me and I’m in a conservative position. 

12 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Unless someone actually wants to break the global economy, which cannot be ruled out.

So, this is either accidentally or intentionally tanking everything when it was in really good shape a month ago, and I'm honestly not sure which is worse.

Imagine the wealth that could be generated by those in-the-know.

It would be similar to a group waging biological warfare on the world and buying up property and businesses throughout the globe during the crisis.

The Australian, Japanese, South Korean as well as other Markets in Asia and Oceania are in freefall right now, with Japan’s TOPIX down over 12% while Australia’s ASX is down 6%.

47 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is life altering for everyone. 

I mean, I'm all cash right now.

Sorry Fireplace GIF by South Park

40 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

And please understand, I am not enjoying this. Im just fascinated by once in a lifetime events like this and enjoy commenting on them. Im also positioned quite conservatively so I dont feel the anxiety some of you are feeling so its easier for me to comment on technical bounces, what I think will happen etc. Speaking of what I think will happen tomorrow. Im gonna take my shot and say if we hold above 480 the rest of the night, we will sell off hard in the first 5-30 minutes, flushing out the panic sellers, then rally the rest of the day and we close above 500.

Same.  Every libertarian is a bit of an anarchist.  NGL I kinda wanna see what happens.  Not bragging but admitting. 

9 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

I mean, I'm all cash right now.

Sorry Fireplace GIF by South Park

I mean, as long as you’re retired and never buy anything, you’ll come out of this unscathed!

Oof

The situation was not better in other parts of the world. Stock futures in Japan were briefly halted after futures for the country’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes declined by more than 8%. Circuit breakers kick in on the Japanesese stock exchanges when the Nikkei or Topix move more than 8% in either direction.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/us-stock-futures-plunge-ahead-monday-open-trump-tariffs-shock-continue-rcna199924

So frazzled they misspelled it. 

 

 

On 4/5/2025 at 8:51 AM, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

but once the deal is done all parties magically work together to make profit.

This is pretty clearly not one of Trump's core beliefs.

What’s everyone got on their bingo card for the market tomorrow?

9 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

What’s everyone got on their bingo card for the market tomorrow?

Animated GIF

9 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

What’s everyone got on their bingo card for the market tomorrow?

We hit the limit once and finish the day down 6%.  Not bad, all considering.

8 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

What’s everyone got on their bingo card for the market tomorrow?

More news of over-leveraged accounts (retail & cocky hedge funds) blowing up.

20 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

image.png.843b5c1726e0feccb314b0df85475c80.png

Hong Kong getting in on the action now

@TexArcher with some excellent advice.

 

Note that I believe the Hang Seng was closed Friday so its just playing catch up today.

33 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

What’s everyone got on their bingo card for the market tomorrow?

1 hour ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Imagine the wealth that could be generated by those in-the-know.

I expect a green box for UVIX again. And a little closer to not imagining. 

followed by survivors guilt...

 

 

Edited by horn4life

40 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

More news of over-leveraged accounts (retail & cocky hedge funds) blowing up.

Yeah that's going to be a problem soon as these over leveraged hedge funds have to sell safer assets to cover the margin calls on their risky bets.  I'm waiting on the sidelines for awhile though. 

I don't have nearly enough dry powder as I would like. But I am buying all the way down this shit. And will start converting physical metals soon. My backstop is 5.56 and real estate with garden plots. 

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Time horizon is 10-15 years. Worst case scenario is 20. 

I like the aggressiveness. Have any kids to sell?

 

* No I’m not buying.

Edited by Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just now, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

I like the aggressiveness. Have any kids to sell?

Three.  Reasonably good genetics. Their 529s looks like shit right now though. 

15 minutes ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Yeah that's going to be a problem soon as these over leveraged hedge funds have to sell safer assets to cover the margin calls on their risky bets.  I'm waiting on the sidelines for awhile though. 

Wait.  These hedge funds go broke with a 20% correction?  If so, let them burn.

For these kinds of market reactions there are only a few time frames that have ever been this volatile. 1929 on a few dates, 1933 on a few, 1940, 1987, 2008 on a few, and 2020. So this, and what looks like tomorrow has in store for us, are effectively unprecedented. Unprecedented because those other dates had severe issues going on with global economy. This is happening due to one person.

The messaging of ‘reciprocal’ prior to throwing out what is now viewed as haphazard, at best, is what has caused the current calamity.

I’d also caution against expecting a snap back rally ala April 2020. Besides the lack of a liquify hose, given this was caused by poor tariff messaging /clear goals out of djt , uncertainty is now higher and will/should force a downward rerate on multiples

35 minutes ago, Da Fino said:

Smart. 

Any thing anaphylaxis says you can safely bet against.  One of the few truths in this new world.

What, if any, legal repercussions could Donald Trump be subject to with the effects it's had on the other global economies? If S. Korea, Australia and Japan told Trump he would immediately be arrested if he steps foot in their countries that'd be metal.

3 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

This is where I’m at. This stuff fascinates me and I’m in a conservative position. 

Imagine the wealth that could be generated by those in-the-know.

It would be similar to a group waging biological warfare on the world and buying up property and businesses throughout the globe during the crisis.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14575733/Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-stock-market-treasury-bills-donald-trump-tariffs.html

5 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

I’m 42. I don’t really manage my 401k, just put it in the 2040 retirement bucket. Tomorrow is not the day to start managing it and move everything to a money market, right?  I’ve already got the losses and would just risk missing when things move back up. Right?…

You will get the traditional advice to ride it out. Personally, I’m a bit pessimistic about the traditional advice applying to a playing field where the US President is actively trying to wreck the country and world.  My UT Econ professors didn’t cover that one. 

5 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

This is where I’m at. This stuff fascinates me and I’m in a conservative position. 

Imagine the wealth that could be generated by those in-the-know.

It would be similar to a group waging biological warfare on the world and buying up property and businesses throughout the globe during the crisis.

If I had a moment i'd post what one nutcase hedge fund guy close to the administration (Ackman) posted about another nutcase hedge fund guy (Lutnick) who's part of the administration who did the 'everything is going to okay Americans will just do the jobs of Chinse for $2/hour" comedy routine yesterday on the news "interview" shows.

1 hour ago, RabidM said:

These fucking assholes.  I bet she's hardly the only politician who got out of stock volatility just in time.

Jokes on her when the government defaults on its debt.

1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Jokes on her when the government defaults on its debt.

HAHAHA.... wait

Looks like the Nikkei closed down 7% and S&P500 futures down a little over 2%?  Coulda been worse.  I don’t think we’re gonna be ok here.

Fear will keep the decline moving until Trump shows some sign he might do something. He digs in and markets will force his hand.

12 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Fear will keep the decline moving until Trump shows some sign he might do something. He digs in and markets will force his hand.

I doubt there will be any course changes in the next week. Trump has been saying since before the election this was the plan. Dude has tied us all to the mast. 

What's so crazy about this is all the useful idiots that didn't believe he would go through with it. "If" there's gonna be tariffs, right @Incredulity?

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I doubt there will be any course changes in the next week. Trump has been saying since before the election this was the plan. Dude has tied us all to the mast. 

What's so crazy about this is all the useful idiots that didn't believe he would go through with it. "If" there's gonna be tariffs, right @Incredulity?

Agree, I don't see him changing course for months. I don't think he does anything until companies start laying off in mass.

He won’t do shit. He wants the entire world to have to come groveling to him. Dude is a fucking sadist, among his many other endearing qualities.

I think there will be a bounce today.  As there is still hope.  The hope being this is as bad is it will get....

After hearing Peter Navarro tell me the Dow is going to 50,000.  But I would bet every dime in my portfolio, and my house, that Navarro is not losing money because of this stupidity. In other words the important people at the Whitehouse do NOT have skin in the game when it comes to the stock market. 

I expect a fight back on hopes of a bottom today, that largely evaporates with a downward push into the close.  If this is the case I may buy some UVIX options with my remaining 8% cash.  I still hold that it's going at least another 3-5,000 points down before there is any real pressure on Trump to change course.  Despite getting ridiculed for this statement as peing "political."  After hearing Peter Navarro mansplain this AM, I think the bottom is at least a few thousand points lower.

Of course I could be wrong, but I just do see what makes these numbers a bottom? 

14 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I think there will be a bounce today. 


There wasn’t.

Quote

As there is still hope. 

There isn’t.

 

IMG_6793.png

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