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26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

And I sure as shit ain't listening to the guy who gave us the most awkward "trader" story just a few pages ago and who compared a trade deficit to fucking household finances. 

I’ll definitely listen to this guy over some blowhard on a football board who can’t detach from his emotions long enough to potentially learn something.

image.thumb.png.8da26f3ff9fa47d9159500e8fb459c9a.png
 


 

I can admit my areas of weakness, truly desire to keep learning, and listen to anyone, regardless of their political affiliation or lack of.  I still will not put 100% faith in anything. 

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47 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

. I did my best to stay awake in economics class and don’t claim anything above that level of education in the matter.

ECO 101 or ECO301 is fucking interesting as shit this year.  You don't normally get to see moves that take months and years in a matter of days.  But right now... everyone reading this thread NOT interested in very basic economics, should sell all their stocks and start learning.  SOUNDS CRAZY doesn't it. But I feel very, very strongly I will be correct.  

Hell, I came back dinner and Bloomberg had the the front end of the Trump speech to the NRCC... like 20 minutes,Live and uninterrupted...   As a person betting against the market I will sleep fantastically tonight. 

Edited by horn4life

Just now, horn4life said:

ECO 101 or ECO301 is fucking interesting as shit this year.  You don't normally get to see moves that take months and years in a matter of days.  But right now... everyone reading this thread NOT interested in very basic economics, should sell all their stocks and start learning.  SOUNDS CRAZY doesn't it. But I feel very, very strongly I will be correct.  

Hell, I came back dinner and Bloomberg had the entire Trump speech to the NRCC... Live and uninterrupted...   As a person betting against the market I will sleep fantastically tonight. 

On one hand, I agree. There will be a better place to invest at some point. The problem is, the fear following something catastrophic prevents a vast majority people from getting back in, until it’s too late and they’re buying the tops again.

Those people are better off staying in and waiting for the recovery.

1 minute ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

On one hand, I agree. There will be a better place to invest at some point. The problem is, the fear following something catastrophic prevents a vast majority people from getting back in, until it’s too late and they’re buying the tops again.

Those people are better off staying in and waiting for the recovery.

Well if you are 100% cash, sure.  If you want to take a 20% down ride (maybe worse) hang on, do not sell.  Just my advice, but right now ECO 101 Fucks!

Just now, horn4life said:

Well if you are 100% cash, sure.  If you want to take a 20% down ride (maybe worse) hang on, do not sell.  Just my advice, but right now ECO 101 Fucks!

Just be careful with your puts, Black Swan events can happen at the bottom, too. Sometimes the truly powerful people eliminate problems that go against them.

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

So what are you telling your clients.  Seeing some of your other posts elsewhere makes me think you're not the most unbiased investor

Vol is back on the menu for a while.  But yes, we will go down more.  Still haven't had the puke

AAPL will a great way to play max fear re China.  When all hope is lost (think when Brisket starts posting in all caps and in bold regarding WW3 and nukes and shit), buy Apple.

I'm dead serious, the tell is seeing this guy plastered all over finance websites.  I've seen his picture a couple of times the last four trading days, but he hasn't hit max saturation yet.  More pain to come.

GettyImages-1206168220.jpg?quality=85&st

So much for the moonshot theory of tanking the economy to “re-finance the debt at lower rates”

 

hello stagflation. 
 

 

10-Year ain't cash. 3 to 6 month is cash-equivalent, but 10 years is different.

If China and the rest of the world starts dumping TB’s, isn’t that pretty much a recipe for potential collapse of our economy?

It's kind of a nuclear option, but if the world decides to stop using the dollar as it's reserve currency, I don't see how we can finance our deficit spending or pay the interest on our debt, much less the debt itself.  Disaster seems like a woefully inadequate word. 

35 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You boomers broke yet? Hopefully soon.

You don’t think that would impact how many cart pushers Walmart has? You better think about your own job security.

7 hours ago, pantone159 said:

10-Year ain't cash. 3 to 6 month is cash-equivalent, but 10 years is different.


you really think I don’t know that?

4 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You boomers broke yet? Hopefully soon.

Looks like today is the day I go 6 figs on profit in 5 trading days betting against this predictable stupidity.  Not bad for a stupid boomer talking ECO 101, on an account with a value of less than $200K.  Of course it could all disappear as there is a reason why it says, "unrealized gains" on my screen.

Mainly that fact the 401K has trimmed only around 3-4% as of yesterday off from the top, due to removing stock risk is sort of cool too.

Eco 101 my friends, Eco 101...

 

But yes a lot of my boomer friends are watching a lifetime of savings savaged. 

 

It is possible that treasury bonds are being sold by sovereign funds as retaliation for tariffs.  It’s also possible that it’s just smart money heading for the exits.  Either way if treasury bonds are viewed as a weapon, it is a nuclear one.  Today should be fun.

If you are up over 50% in your trading account this week, maybe go to cash and call it a day? 

2 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Gambling is an addiction.

I like dopamine. 

7 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It is possible that treasury bonds are being sold by sovereign funds as retaliation for tariffs.  It’s also possible that it’s just smart money heading for the exits.  Either way if treasury bonds are viewed as a weapon, it is a nuclear one.  Today should be fun.

Hedge funds blowing up?

5 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

You boomers broke yet? Hopefully soon.

Why does everyone think everyone else's is a boomer on Surly. I just don't get it. 

Edited by Mother mopar
Mikes mom

4 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

You don’t think that would impact how many cart pushers Walmart has? You better think about your own job security.

The World needs ditch-diggers too.

30 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Looks like today is the day I go 6 figs on profit in 5 trading days…

 

https://imgflip.com/gif/334u0h

15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It is possible that treasury bonds are being sold by sovereign funds as retaliation for tariffs.  It’s also possible that it’s just smart money heading for the exits.  Either way if treasury bonds are viewed as a weapon, it is a nuclear one.  Today should be fun.

Politics should never cloud your investment plans, but I thing they are for a lot of people.  Pro Trump wanna buy.  Anti wants to go short.

From what I’ve read it’s the carry trade getting unwound under duress.  Hopefully it’s limited to a few funds caught with their pants down…

Just now, Anastasis said:

If you are up over 50% in your trading account this week, maybe go to cash and call it a day? 

Yeah - I'm 34% cash now.  should be 40% by close Friday with no change.

I told my wife this strategy was risky, but I also said this could be a life changing opportunity to make money.  I must also point out I was $20K down on the sae holdings a month ago.  SO yes super risky.  I will likely look at doing what I was going to do yesterday and what has been my normal stock strategy, sell calls for half the shares after a steep run up.  Probably will sell some 105/110/100 calls to cover up half the remaining shares.  I tired to yesterday when UVIX was touching $100, but pull back dashed my plan in the last 4 minutes of the day.  

And yes these positions are fucking risky. But this is the risky account. 

Hell it's hard to sell shit that keeps putting up 4 and 5 digit wins.  My hedge both on the way up and way down has been covered calls. That's how I grew the account to begin with trading a very volatile PLTR mostly.  So risk is what it is.   Yesterday was $24K down to $20K up.  

If for even a second I thought that Trump would be the one to reach out to China I would be a LOT more worried.  But I think right now we are likely to see an ego standoff between Trump and Xi.... over who makes the fucking phone call...         And do you see the architect of this amazing change for the world economy making that call?  DO you?  I put up a post a few pages back, that said it was going to take perhaps as much as a 10,000 points down for Trump to change course.  Sadly I still believe this.  

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Politics should never cloud your investment plans, but I thing they are for a lot of people.  Pro Trump wanna buy.  Anti wants to go short.

The fake rally showed me there is still way too much hope.  And I am big on betting against folks that believe stuff that is not true and invest emotionally because of that.  I am going short only because Trump has been predictably stupid.  Just trying to cash in betting against a really badly managed company right now.

11 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:

Why does everyone thing everyone else's is a boomer on Surly. I just don't get it. 

I just assume you are all GenX for the most part. Unless the poster is a constant whiner. 

Lulz it's gonna be a fun ride with running the government like a business, especially when the guy in charge very recently publicly filed that he's a shitty businessman and a number of his businesses go bankrupt and fail

 

Edited by Captainant

PS sorry for bragging on my gains.  The boomer comment set me off when so many of my friends are truly terrified about that the retirement they were planning in the next year or so, may not be possible.  And that sucks in your 60's.

 

Fed is going to have to step in.  And that's when I start getting fucked.  And that is why the market is getting a little bounce today I assume.  And yes... bragging is almost an instantaneous reversal of fortune.  Damn boomer post...

But Trump just told folks to buy... signed the tweet DJT and DJT spikes... lemmings... 

28 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

Fed will step in. Pretty straightforward. Hopefully Horn4Life takes profits before that becomes necessary and is announced.

IMG_4415.gif.5df4936a199128ce5720ddeb66c3d262.gif

Tomorrow morning premarket is going to likely have some serious movement.   CPI , Initial Jobless and Consumer confidence reports before market.  I expect a negative upside to all.  But what has me scratching my head is... will the market rally on bad news.. because Fed forced to the Rescue?  

What would spike the market honestly is an announcement from the White House that they had made a deal with somebody, anybody!  

 

46 minutes ago, horn4life said:

PS sorry for bragging on my gains.  The boomer comment set me off when so many of my friends are truly terrified about that the retirement they were planning in the next year or so, may not be possible.  And that sucks in your 60's.

 

I'm 63 and planning for retirement so yeah, it sucks, but I'll come out all right.  Some things I can't do much about right now but all new money is very conservative until this shitshow works out.

17 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Just checked El Presidente's shoutbox, BE COOL! It's a good time to buy

image.thumb.png.dfd920b0444676ee1d65447a7f61a2f9.png

 

There ain't no tariff relief coming yet. 

Nothing encourages people to relax quite like yelling at them "BE COOL!"  

Where is hope the fed is going to step in soon coming from?  Seems like Powell wanted to find out the impact of tariffs on inflation first.

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Nothing encourages people to relax quite like yelling at them "BE COOL!"  

pulp fiction tarantino GIF

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Nothing encourages people to relax quite like yelling at them "BE COOL!"  

image.png.c84ad42d3da075a008d25ff1f4b0a875.png

2 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

US Treasury market function and stability takes precedence over everything.

I mean, and it should.

5 minutes ago, Thomas Walsh said:

US Treasury market function and stability takes precedence over everything.

Fucking legit lulz that anything takes precedence over Trumps idiocy or ego. If treasury market function and stability truly takes precedence over everything as you state, we would not have headed down this path. 

Edited by Blotto

It seems like shit has to go way more south before the Fed fires up the QE machine again, right?

They are in a bind on cutting rates with tariffs already being extremely inflationary. I don't think the Fed is coming to save us.

I don't konw why people think the Fed is going to step in to save the Market. At this point, the electorate has gotta swim through it's own shit river and let the economy shake out. Tariffs are sort of a one time inflationary event (at least in theory).  They aren't the classic too much money chasing too few goods. Once they induce a recession, prices will top out/stall and the Fed can start thinking about cutting rates. Again.....in theory.  But theory doesn't account for a Mad King. 

4 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

It seems like shit has to go way more south before the Fed fires up the QE machine again, right?

They are in a bind on cutting rates with tariffs already being extremely inflationary. I don't think the Fed is coming to save us.

Powell does not give a fuck what trump thinks. 

51 minutes ago, immamac said:

Powell does not give a fuck what trump thinks. 

Lulz, like Trump gives a fuck about some law saying he cant throw Powell in jail for national security reasons.  

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