Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

Using your hawt takes on the football board as 2/5 points to represent your intelligence is WILD

  • Replies 18.1k
  • Views 1.4m
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

I'm sure all his rich friends got out just before the tariff announcement was made.  I'm sure they also bought back in huge before the tariff pause was announced.  This is disgusting, amoral behavior.  It's sickening. 

So in net we've increased tarrifs 10% on everyone and 100%+ on China and market is down <4%.  He removes the China over and above tariff and net likely positive after increasing tariffs on everyone....  I don't expect that though so expect a slow decline for awhile.

China is now around 150%. That is going to still do damage to our economy. Fuck anyone cheering for this.

29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can't imagine how crushing it is to people that exited yesterday. 

Yeah, Ive decided whenever shit gets real squirrely I just buy puts so I dont have to sell anything. I exit those option positions every week or so on the way down, bank the profits and buy more. I got lucky as fuck in that I sold basically all of my April 17 puts yesterday afternoon, banked about 60% of the profits and bought more puts for May/June. Those are all down 50% now, but I'll average down on those as well. Inexplicably a couple of my larger holdings (WMT and HACK) did so well in the rebound, that I finished $200 in the green today, lulz. 

Nothing got solved today, and arguably the China situation is getting worse, so imo the markets will creep back down once today's euphoria wears off.  I have full confidence Trump will start wrecking shit again in a few days once everyone keeps pointing out it that it was donnie that caved, and absolutely none of this was necessary. 

We are going to do it again in 86 days when people have gotten un-yippy, aren’t we?

IMG_9185.jpeg

15 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah, Ive decided whenever shit gets real squirrely I just buy puts so I dont have to sell anything.

Right, so those are just hedges and not just naked directional bets. You are effectively straddled at the risk of missing some upside, which in current environment makes 100% sense. 

CNBC's Fast Money host Melissa Lee just basiclly called out Howard Lutnick for Trump signaling there was going to be a manipulation of the market with his great time to buy DJT truth a few hours before he suspended the tariffs.  At least some are calling it out. 

  • Popular Post
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard.  

Yeah- I'm dumb.  I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people.  DUMB. Or, nailing the Sark hire and what he was doing after being 5-7.  And writing at length about it. Or- saying the Astros were going to win the division in 23 and 24 when they were buried under a mountain of shit. My track record on this board from the beginning is wrong about everything.  

Go look at the 2025 draft thread where I say we are getting mid double digits from last April for another example of Wulaw missing the point!

To be fair, you also drove a 14 ft RV through a 12 ft clearance underpass and sheared the roof clean off. Let’s say your prognostication is a mixed bag. 

48 minutes ago, RabidM said:

I'm sure all his rich friends got out just before the tariff announcement was made.  I'm sure they also bought back in huge before the tariff pause was announced.  This is disgusting, amoral behavior.  It's sickening. 

This is the game, always had been. Surly will tell anyone who thinks outside the message board vacuum they are an idiot.

This game is always the same, but different. Love him or hate him, he warned everyone it was coming, told everyone to hold tight, and then quite literally told us when to buy.

This pattern likely isn't over so I'd recommend against anyone getting aggressive either direction. 

Side note: Living overseas at the moment is interesting. For the first time, I feel a strong sense of shame to be an American. 

19 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Side note: Living overseas at the moment is interesting. For the first time, I feel a strong sense of shame to be an American. 

I just got my new passport in the mail over the weekend. As I was checking it out, I thought "it might be a while before I put this one to use." On the positive side of things, it took less than 4 weeks to get the thing, so at least that function of government appears to be business as usual. 

5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I just got my new passport in the mail over the weekend. As I was checking it out, I thought "it might be a while before I put this one to use." On the positive side of things, it took less than 4 weeks to get the thing, so at least that function of government appears to be business as usual. 

I just got mine. Took less than 3 and I didn't even expedite using online with taking my own pic and everything. 

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

I just got mine. Took less than 3 and I didn't even expedite using online with taking my own pic and everything. 

Same. Couldn’t believe how fast the turnaround time was.
 

I took a picture with my bedroom wall in the background and thought it had a 95% chance of getting rejected. It didn’t; I guess their LLM didn’t pick up on what a shitty picture it was. 

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Who swerved exactly? 

 

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Ah, so as of now, the orange fucktard swerved when he realized the rest of the world was ready to call his bluff. Got it. 

image.thumb.jpeg.c9288e9b003614cf9dacfe7a39de9fb9.jpeg

I’m a long term investor but raised some cash this afternoon. The bb’s are not back in the box and it takes a lot longer than 4 hours to figure out where we go from here. We pissed off 200+ countries and for what?

1 minute ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Found Surly's hooker and blow connection.

Horn4Life’s hookers and blow party got scaled down by 25% today. 

Just now, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Sorry for your loss.

May the memory of his $200k in gains be a blessing. 

  • Popular Post

I think we have permanently damaged the reputation of the United States as a safe place to invest for international investors.  I think the strength of the dollar has also eroded as a safe haven.  I do not think interest rates are going to be falling anytime soon.  Because we are going to have higher inflation. 

I said back when the President was elected that we would be very, very lucky if we got to 6.25% mortgage rates this Spring on the MMI.  I felt we would be closer to 7% because of the inflationary pressures that tariffs cause.  This is still the same case as it was in November.  We are going to want to borrow a shit ton more money for the big beautiful budget bill and it's not going to be paid for.  At the very best it will be "pretend paid for" with some accounting trickery.  And we are going to have to pay a higher rate than necessary to fund that.  

We are not going to get a shit ton of foreign investment in the US because we are not as stable a place to do business as we were 10 days ago.  There is a longer term cost to the level of stupidity and simply not accounting for the most obvious results of their policy.  They really just did not anticipate the most likely scenario.  To me that is fucking scary as shit, from the folks running the USA Corporation.

Now it's just going to be more of a slow motion roll out of stupidity.         And for me... that is sort of hard for me to bet on long at this point.  

I also think the only reason we are not staring at the cliff, is some fiscal conservative house member was not going to vote to add a shit ton of debt in this environment.  So kick the can down the road, get out of the house, then back to math that simply does not add up. 

 

Edited by horn4life

7 minutes ago, horn4life said:

And for me... that is sort of hard for me to bet on long at this point.  

I generally agree, but I am talking myself into an exception here in the short term. Reading a bit more about Trump's comments today, it doesnt shock me to learn that he plans on further manipulating markets by picking and choosing which companies have to pay tariffs:

Quote

Even as Trump calmed the markets – for now, at least – he also raised new questions by suggesting he would consider exempting some US companies from tariffs, saying he would make any such decisions “instinctively.”

So he's basically announcing he will now be soliciting bribes or quid pro quo favors in exchange for protection. I bring this up because those companies will likely see a recovery beyond just what we saw today. There is no concrete explanation, just Trump's instinct. 

Take AAPL for example, while their 15% recovery up to $200 today is a start, it was trading at $250 in february. My guess is doubling the cost of Iphones in the US is not a complaint he wants to hear constantly, and as they have greater than 50% market share it would be a constant complaint. Plus he probably drops about 3 Iphones in his toilet each week. OTM AAPL calls might be an interesting gamble as they would skyrocket if Trump does his buddy Tim Apple a solid. Maybe $220 or $225 AAPL calls for 5/16 expiry.

Anybody got other guesses as to who he would likely exempt? Tesla obviously, but they have bigger issues and I'm not sure it benefits them that much. Which CEOs that kiss his b-hole regularly import significantly from Gina?   

If you think the tariff wars are behind us, I think you are sadly mistaken. IMO, based on several commentators remarks, I think this was politically motivated, related to the upcoming budget legislation. Republican leaders were starting to worry about losing support in both houses, and this is trump giving some room to pull together the votes to pass tax cuts and other MAGA agenda points. Then readdress tariffs with the budget behind them.

 

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

If you think the tariff wars are behind us, I think you are sadly mistaken. IMO, based on several commentators remarks, I think this was politically motivated, related to the upcoming budget legislation. Republican leaders were starting to worry about losing support in both houses, and this is trump giving some room to pull together the votes to pass tax cuts and other MAGA agenda points. Then readdress tariffs with the budget behind them.

 

Whelp, they just pulled the budget vote tonight, so if Trump was trying to impress Chip Roy, it didn’t work. 
 

I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out, and they pulled the relief valve. I’m a long etf guy. I used today’s rally to diversify and reduce my equity exposure, eating some minor losses to protect my portfolio against more turbulence. I’m trying to retire abroad in the next 3 years. I don’t need that dipshit from Queens fucking up my retirement. 

We're going to have a nice recession this year.

The administration is not done with the stupid shit.

CEOs will howl and there may not be an unanticipated rise in bond yields to derail it next time.

He's telling you who he is.  A reckless crackpot that believes he's never wrong.

 

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out

earlier on bloomberg someone said the chinese and japanese started selling at the same time which i took to mean they were implying the 2 were in league

Does anyone really doubt this? The fucking felon in chief has an active shit coin and pump and dump SPAC. 

 


 

Solid thread of the obvious insider trading that went on today. Only posting the first post in the thread

 


 

At some point the market is gonna start looking at what it thinks we’ll be 5 years from now and just yawn at the day to day idiocracy?  Right?

And the entire S&P 500 has become a meme stock.

7 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Whelp, they just pulled the budget vote tonight, so if Trump was trying to impress Chip Roy, it didn’t work. 
 

I think the sell off in long term bonds freaked them out, and they pulled the relief valve. I’m a long etf guy. I used today’s rally to diversify and reduce my equity exposure, eating some minor losses to protect my portfolio against more turbulence. I’m trying to retire abroad in the next 3 years. I don’t need that dipshit from Queens fucking up my retirement. 

Chatting with folks who know their shit, their read is 10 yr bonds were hauling ass to 5% on Japan unloading their US treasury’s with some f you attached along with the msg they weren’t gonna stop and had others on board to do the same*. trump panicked. #shartofthedeal
 

*makes me think back a week or two ago when this tariff shit started and managed to turn Japan and China into allies

Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go  the manipulated rally.

Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn.  Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy.

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

And the entire S&P 500 has become a meme stock.

Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we?  To match the meme administration.

The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning.  And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession.  I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well.  

-------------------------

THE BLOW BY BLOW

But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out.

I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back.  The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing.  I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it.

I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder.  So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar.  Went to look at tides and winds for Port A,  Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV...  Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit...  Then it fucking freezes.  So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed.  Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" 

My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond.  I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash?

I am upset but relieved.  And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful."  and "You still made us so much money!"  What a great fucking wife!  She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck!  What are you doing!"

Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red.  I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room.  Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it.  So another crisis averted.

-----------

Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months.  So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down.

Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow...

 

Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ

Edited by horn4life

Damn near everything we touch / use has some component linked back to China. A massive amount of construction equipment parts that builds the roads to get us places, for example. Everything will go up in cost due to this bullshit.

10 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Damn near everything we touch / use has some component linked back to China.

Seems like a problem. 
 

We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

Seems like a problem. 
 
We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

I don’t disagree. However, unraveling 50 years of globalization like this isn’t the answer.

Oh look, it’s Trump’s billionaire buddy and appointee to be the ambassador to Italy taking advantage of this market manipulation.

Quote

Billionaire casino owner Tilman Fertitta has taken advantage of a steep drop in the stock market by acquiring more shares of Wynn Resorts at close to its 52-week low.

According to an SEC filing released Tuesday afternoon, Feritta has acquired an additional 400,000 shares. Some 200,000 of the shares were acquired for $70.39; 100,000 shares at $70.30, and 100,000 shares at $67.62.

The date of the acquisition was April 4.

 

15 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Losing the trust and confidence of the entire world for "marginal improvements".  That's a hell of a risk / reward evaluation right there.

In Wulaw's mind, shaving 5% off the trade deficit with China by reducing the amount of Chinese goods we buy by slightly more than American companies lose in exports to China while destroying the dollar's status as reserve currency is a win. It's like shooting ourselves in the dick and balls so that we can aim for our feet a little easier.

Well I was wrong, no creeping in of Trump policy into Jobless and inflation.  Market should be surging on that news right...? 😉 

So bought couple hundred shares of UVIX at $58.25...  will sells calls on those sometime this AM.  But gotta get my shit together to hit the road.  No worries at all about a big upside any time soon

Martha Stewart has to be pissed these days. “Why the fuck did I go to prison again?”

Just now, tbone_ said:

Martha Stewart has to be pissed these days. “Why the fuck did I go to prison again?”

If only she could have just held out another decade and worn a red hat to show fealty to the regime, she too could get away with insider trading and market manipulation 

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Seems like a problem. 
 

We also have substantial dependency on china for our pharmaceutical supply chain. Like some of the real basics eg antibiotics. We need to return production capacity to Americans shores. 

Subsidizing or providing tax benefits for domestic production would be a more direct and targeted away to solve those sorts of strategic issues. Unpredictable application of tariffs will not encourage investment into domestic industry. They can be here today and gone tomorrow. 

12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Subsidizing or providing tax benefits for domestic production would be a more direct and targeted away to solve those sorts of strategic issues. Unpredictable application of tariffs will not encourage investment into domestic industry. They can be here today and gone tomorrow. 

Sounds an awful lot like the evil CHIPS Act.

46 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If only she could have just held out another decade and worn a red hat to show fealty to the regime, she too could get away with insider trading and market manipulation 

 

IMG_8661.jpeg

Funny headline this AM:

Stocks plummet as tariff-pause euphoria gets reality check

Reality check = people realizing this shit will happen again in 3 months and do not want to deal with the volatility.  Retirees moving $$ to safer havens.  People moving the Jr/Sr in HS college funds into cash, etc.

Just my opinion, worth what you paid.

  • Popular Post
49 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Subsidizing or providing tax benefits for domestic production would be a more direct and targeted away to solve those sorts of strategic issues. Unpredictable application of tariffs will not encourage investment into domestic industry. They can be here today and gone tomorrow. 

I used to work with a lot of Chemical companies, and this dude from a certain Delaware company once told me: “Regulate me, or don’t regulate me, but set the rules in stone and get the fuck out of the way so I can invest and apply capital.”

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.