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  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Just now, Anastasis said:

Every single "crisis" has worked out to the upside with sufficient time horizon. The backstops are monetary policy and aircraft carriers. But maybe this time is different. 


Smoot-Hawley lead to a 35% drop in GDP.  It was a less global world but I can’t see anything currently other than a self inflicted crises that negatively impacts Americans, American corporations, American O&G, treasuries, and the USD. We don’t exactly have a PHD in economics leading the charge. Ron Vara notwithstanding. 

1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

We don’t exactly have a PHD in economics leading the charge.

Nor was the last.

Look best against it at your own peril. 

We are seeing market action where 30 minutes of movement reflects months in a normal environment. 

Make money on the volatility.

But get long over longer term, imo. 

7 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Smoot-Hawley lead to a 35% drop in GDP.

Hey, there is always the world war backstop. 

Joe Biden wasn’t on the shitter tweeting out world changing economic policy minute by minute. Congress actually had a say in what we did. Hence the CHIP Act and Inflation reduction act. 
 

145% tariffs on China. Give me a break. 

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

When was the last “crisis” that was completely and totally manufactured out of thin air by the folks in charge?

yesterday?

10 hours ago, Slacks said:

Hmmmmmmm.... While I was about to say I didn't think 5% was the number this train is going to sit on, I then thought, if I had $2M liquid, catching a 'guaranteed' 100k in the mailbox per year wouldn't be terrible.

Of course, I am currently nowhere near $2M, because of this mfer...

 

10 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Just remember that the inflation, driven by tariffs, is going to get you much less than you think it will

Came to post this. Even with normal inflation and the rapid cost of living increases, I don’t think 100k is going to give you the retirement you want/need. And that’s before you throw in the possibility of elder care for yourself (and not your kids). 

Yeah been watching the implied open and 10 year. Pretty calm. Which if I've learned anything last 14 days means utter chaos is coming 

I don’t see a lot of traders wanting to hold through the weekend. I’m expecting a big slide in the last hour.

Which means stonks to the moon, of course.

It's wild that the market bounced back after tariffs were effectively increased after the so-called "pause"

A weekend selloff feels more likely than not

Edited by Captainant

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's wild that the market bounced back after tariffs were effectively increased after the so-called "pause"

A weekend selloff feels more likely than not

Yeah as far as the 10 year I expect prob a +.03 today and then red .08-.10 come Monday. But as they say wish in one and shit in the other well now you got shit in one hand. 

Edited by UTPhil2006

Trump is threatening to put the tariffs back in place. 

Edited by RabidM

Trump is threatening to put the tariffs back in place. 

Duh.
Listened to Kai Ryssdal this morning, and he is breaking form and really not holding back. And he’s also saying the obvious: most of the capital in the world is sidelining itself because it’s apparent that one man can upset the entire global economy on a whim, there is no discernible plan or path, and he is “at best, mercurial.” He will change his mind minute to minute, to accomplish…nobody knows. Our trade issues with China are real, but will take years to unwind. If he’s trying to accomplish that in weeks, it’s madness.
While money and business do some irrational things, on the whole, they at least require some certainty. And it is clear that the world’s largest economy will change course 180 degrees on one man’s whim, multiple times a week, even a day. So everyone just stays put, hunkers down, and works on their plan to weather the storm of insanity.
This is catastrophic, by the way. That’s not an overstatement.
11 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

When was the last “crisis” that was completely and totally manufactured out of thin air by the folks in charge?

9/11?

I asked AI and this is what I got back
Based on available data, the closest parallel to the current surge occurred in late September to early October 2023, when the 10-year yield jumped from about 4.1% to 4.8% in roughly two weeks—a roughly 70-basis-point increase. The current 10-day rise, estimated at around 50-60 basis points (from approximately 3.9% to 4.51%), is significant but slightly less intense in magnitude.
 

Add in the comparison to the rates for other countries’ debt.
Add in the market crash.
Add in the complete collapse of consumer confidence to levels not seen since 1952.
Add in the complete destruction of hundreds of thousands of American businesses built on our current trade environment.
And keep going. Fuck off with your bullshit.

The drop in consumer sentiment and producer price index tells me everyone, across the board, is slamming their wallets shut and hunkering down. Combined with the bond flight, that screams recession to me. 
 

But what the fuck do I know. I was still equity heavy 6 weeks ago. 
Sponge Bob GIF

1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

Holy shit.  We are so fucked.  This might finally be what causes trump to fafo

Love the casual hand wave as to…everything.
And ffs, on #4, that’s literally from business owners themselves. Incoming China trade is rapidly shutting down. No inventory, no business.
Nobody in the world except Ron Vara thinks we’re not in a crisis.

I’m bullish right now short term. IMO we see a China deal in seven days or less. 

And what is your trust level that this man won’t reverse THAT within a week…or do something else equally unstable in a week, a day, or an hour? Is that trust level sufficient for you to make, say, a billion dollar investment in building a manufacturing facility?
This is the problem: not so much what he has done, but that he’s demonstrated that he will do all manners of irrational shit, with no warning or provocation, then change course in minutes, creating an environment with zero predictability. Capital hates that.
4 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I’m bullish right now short term. IMO we see a China deal in seven days or less. 

Agree. We're back to last Thursday level. I am existing SPY equity positions and just gonna ride July and Sept calls. Buying more BRK and dividend payers. 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


And what is your trust level that this man won’t reverse THAT within a week…or do something else equally unstable in a week, a day, or an hour? Is that trust level sufficient for you to make, say, a billion dollar investment in building a manufacturing facility?
This is the problem: not so much what he has done, but that he’s demonstrated that he will do all manners of irrational shit, with no warning or provocation, then change course in minutes, creating an environment with zero predictability. Capital hates that.

I know it’s unbelievable to a lot on this board…but I trust.

15 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I know it’s unbelievable to a lot on this board…but I trust.

You know what they say about a fool and his money...

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You know what they say about a fool and his money...

They sit on the sideline during periods of high volatility and whine on the internet?

I’m open to trusting.  What are we basing it on?  Legitimate question for people feeling bullish that the worst has past.

16 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Every single "crisis" has worked out to the upside with sufficient time horizon.

- All Nikkei/Japan Longs, 1991-2023
 

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

What are we basing it on?

They are basing it on normality bias. Or at least that’s what they’ve said. What I would like to hear is a *first principles* perspective in support of a bullish posture. 

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

well, he’s a businessman….

Art of the Deal, my man.

Confused Donald Trump GIF

In God and Warren Buffet I trust. Everyone else can get a fucking hedge with the quickness. 

21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

- All Nikkei/Japan Longs, 1991-2023
 

If you believe that that is where this is headed, there are market bets you can make that will secure a very comfortable retirement for you and throw off cash starting tomorrow. Let us know what positions you take. 

Edited by Anastasis

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

In God and Warren Buffet I trust

Warren Buffet is in cash and God caught the last train for the coast, my dude.

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

If you believe that that is where this is headed, there are market bets you can make that will secure a very comfortable retirement for you and throw off cash starting tomorrow. Let us know what positions you take. 

I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Warren Buffet is in cash and God caught the last train for the coast, my dude.

Good. BRK is my third largest holding in my trading account, behind free money (employer stock) and a 7%+ yield dividend payer. 

29 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I’m open to trusting.  What are we basing it on?  Legitimate question for people feeling bullish that the worst has past.

The world is not ending.

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don’t have a thesis at this point, but do you? It sounds like you just have a default.

Near term high volatility. Make money on both sides. By end of summer we are north of here. Get OTM Sept calls on the dips (e.g. last Friday). Shed the July calls ASAP on a bump. Those may be hosed. For long term investments, keep doing what you have been doing for the last 20 years. Averaging in. 

Love the casual hand wave as to…everything.
And ffs, on #4, that’s literally from business owners themselves. Incoming China trade is rapidly shutting down. No inventory, no business.
Nobody in the world except Ron Vara thinks we’re not in a crisis.

I guarantee you #4 is happening. Tariff is applied on ship date. If companies didn’t have the cash to load up Nov - March, they are fucked or they are scrambling for new suppliers - which also costs money and time.
14 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

The world is not ending.

Well, I certainly hope you are correct, but that’s a bit light on how things have materially normalized to something close to what they were before liberation day.  I’m looking for indicators vs faith.

16 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Near term high volatility. Make money on both sides. By end of summer we are north of here. Get OTM Sept calls on the dips (e.g. last Friday). Shed the July calls ASAP on a bump. Those may be hosed. For long term investments, keep doing what you have been doing for the last 20 years. Averaging in. 

Right. Default to normalcy, but with volatility. That’s what I thought you meant. What am I missing?

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Right. Default to normalcy, but with volatility. That’s what I thought you meant. What am I missing?

I don't think you are missing much. I think that that is basically correct. You asked for my thesis. Bet on warren, bet on solid dividends, trade like a cat in the near term. Stay the course with long term retirement portfolio. You brought up Japan lost decades, but that you don't seem to believe that is where we are heading with any conviction. 

Also 556 and seeds. Important part of the portfolio. 

I like the idea of a goat and some chickens too. But fn HOAs man. 

2 hours ago, Thomas Walsh said:

I asked AI and this is what I got back

I hate the future.

18 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Well, I certainly hope you are correct, but that’s a bit light on how things have materially normalized to something close to what they were before liberation day.  I’m looking for indicators vs faith.

My post was the indicator.

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

They sit on the sideline during periods of high volatility and whine on the internet?

What does that have to do with trusting? The market is volatile because of a lack of trust. An investor that trusts whatever we are going to do right now is a fool. Playing the volatility is definitely an aggressive play that conceptually I agree with. But, as you've indicated earlier in this thread, it is also straight gambling. Gamble away I say (especially if you're hedging like you say you're doing). Just do it with open eyes. The investor that is "trusting" isn't doing that. 

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