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  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Because you don't understand the DJIA like Ana does.  And you also don't understand consumer confidence.  Or inflation.  Or supply chain pressure.  Or burning bridges with all of your trading partners.  You just don't get the 20-D chess that is being played here.  This is what things getting BETTER looks like.

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

You may be a Roy Cohn clone, but you are our Roy Cohn clone.

BTW - how are all the markets whose indices I do not understand doing today?  All up I guess…

Looks like blood in the streets. The play is still the same imo. Trade the volatility. Just bought 2 more sept 550 calls. YMMV. 

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Someone needs to do the Aggy roller coaster: “Nobel peace prize talk”, “Biggly DJIA increase” “ Early tariff talk setback”, “Clap-on, Clap-off tariff promise”  “JPow threats”  

8 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

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Someone needs to do the Aggy roller coaster: “Nobel peace prize talk”, “Biggly DJIA increase” “ Early tariff talk setback”, “Clap-on, Clap-off tariff promise”  “JPow threats”  

yeah but do you even know what the DJIA stands for??? GAWRSH!

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Dow about to be at the same point we were at when Trump paused the tariffs.

Have you tried unpausing and repausing them?

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Flag at half mast for Pope is worth a red live update headline, unlike the thousand point Dow drop.

And the libs at Forbes are just making people upset for no particular reason.

59 minutes ago, bluto said:

doin that scary thing where ten yr yields go up the same day the stonks tank. 

Yea, this the real dank stuff that gives me the fear. 

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

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And the libs at Forbes are just making people upset for no particular reason.

You should see what those pinko sonsofbitches down at the WSJ Editorial Board are saying

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

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Flag at half mast for Pope is worth a red live update headline, unlike the thousand point Dow drop.

And the libs at Forbes are just making people upset for no particular reason.

"By predicting event X -- before it even begins."

Yes, I mean....that IS how predictions work.  Now personally, my preferred practice is to predict things after they've already happened.  For example, I predict that Texas will sweep Auburn in baseball last weekend.  I also predict that Pope Francis will die right after Easter.  PRO: my accuracy rate is 100%.  CON: the timing of my predictions doesn't leave a lot of room for people to act on them.  Oh well, everything has a downside.

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For example, I predict that Texas will sweep Auburn in baseball last weekend.  I also predict that Pope Francis will die right after Easter.  

Image of What are you a wizard?!    A genius?!

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

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Flag at half mast for Pope is worth a red live update headline, unlike the thousand point Dow drop.

And the libs at Forbes are just making people upset for no particular reason.

legitimately news for retards.  how can anyone read that site and think they are getting anything but spin.

Panic-y Trump is the most genuine Trump.

All of the bad news coming in on the economy gives him some cover for the bad news coming in about the department of defense abortion. 

I expect some huge tantrum today to try to change the headlines to something else. 

Trump announces his plans to rename Greenland ‘East Virginia’, thereby balancing out the state!”

56 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

 

So you're saying this will be the point it magically turns around and Lebron dominates the tariffs? 

I honestly do not think Trump understands why his whiny, (fix it Daddy,) attacks on Powell are so concerning to the markets.  Stock AND Bonds!!!!!  This is where you wish there were more strong smart people around him.  But like I said am betting against a bad CEO, surrounded by uniquely unqualified management nearly universally across the board.  Nothing like taking a little breathing room from a 90 day tariff reprieve... and then upping the ante with a destruction of the stability of the US Central Bank.  

I hope like fuck I am wrong, and I get burned bad on my short bet.  But I am very, very afraid, that we are about the go back in time financially about 3 years in two trading days in the not too distant future.  Again hope I am fucking wrong.  

 

19 minutes ago, horn4life said:

very afraid, that we are about the go back in time financially

The market is certainly fickle and emotional at this point and the current administration appears to have blinders on when it comes to their emotional toll on whipping the markets one way or another. Do it too much and a lot of investors are going to sit with cash for a very long time until they know they won’t get burned by a temper tantrum and baffling behavior in international trade negotiations.

31 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

JPM ringing all the alarm bells. 
 

 

Well that doesn't sound good. 

I was thinking that there was a Star Trek that reminded me of our current times.  Look up "the Squire of Gothos."  If you are an old like me and still remember shit.  Hilarious that Liberace is playing today's Trump role.  

I think there are a lot of people still expecting the administration to cut quick deals and roll the tariffs back.  I don’t think they understand there isn’t a rewind button here.  This isn’t getting quickly undone.

When 50% of our country has no savings or 401k, I can tell you there is a significant contingent of voters who are loving this. If you have nothing, why wouldn't you want to burn it all down and start over. They have nothing to lose. And trump amplifies this way of thinking.

When 50% of our country has no savings or 401k, I can tell you there is a significant contingent of voters who are loving this. If you have nothing, why wouldn't you want to burn it all down and start over. They have nothing to lose. And trump amplifies this way of thinking.

Correct. What we need is for them to start losing their jobs and off the charts inflation. Hitting them from every direction.

Correct. What we need is for them to start losing their jobs and off the charts inflation. Hitting them from every direction.

Recessions sure as shit hit people with no 401k.
The world is 1) fleeing US investments, 2) fleeing US treasuries, and 3) fleeing and weakening the dollar. JPM is up to a 90% likelihood of a recession coming right soon.
But see, none of them understand the DJIA and smart trade policy like Ana does. The genius outcome is headed our way any minute now. Annnnnnnnny minute now…..
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But see, none of them understand the DJIA and smart trade policy like Ana does.

You are clowning yourself brisket. It doesn't take much to understand that the DJI is an very flawed index. The post I responded to was a clown post, the dip on that day was driven by one stock, which just exemplifies the underlying issue with the DJI. Like the top 4 stocks drive 25% of the index. I am sorry i guess that pointing out these very basic things triggers some ledge dwellers like you. The fact that a handful of you have to continually mischaracterize to get any traction only speaks to how weak your takes are. 

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Potato is the new currency.  Tell me I’m wrong.

Hershey chocolate bars, my grandparents (who come from Germany in the early 1930's) hoarded them and hid them from each other. My grandfather said that it was a more stable holder of value than the deutschmark during the depression. 

We found almost 100 hidden in their basement, kitchen, attic and garage when they moved to an old folks home in about 1972, it was a house they bought in the early 60's. They would rarely eat them, or bake with them, but they loved to but them.

You are clowning yourself brisket. It doesn't take much to understand that the DJI is an very flawed index. The post I responded to was a clown post, the dip on that day was driven by one stock, which just exemplifies the underlying issue with the DJI. Like the top 4 stocks drive 25% of the index. I am sorry i guess that pointing out these very basic things triggers some ledge dwellers like you. The fact that a handful of you have to continually mischaracterize to get any traction only speaks to how weak your takes are. 

Says the man who thinks that an economic approach that has the world - not just China, the whole fucking world and everyone in it - dumping 1) our assets, 2) our debt, and 3) our currency….is 10-D chess.
I’m perfectly good with where you and I stand relative to each other. And yes, I know what your point re the DJIA was…which was also a deflection from the fact that the market as a whole, not just the DJIA, has been taking a massive dump with no sign of arresting the trend.
I’m going to nod my head largely in agreement with what the guys at JPM are observing, not a self-styled brain genius on surly who thinks the exact opposite.

You are only proving the point of that last sentence you quoted. Do whatever the guys at jpm tell you with your trades. I’ll keep running my play.  

You are only proving the point of that last sentence you quoted. Do whatever the guys at jpm tell you with your trades. I’ll keep running my play.  

And maybe…just maybe…the economy is about more than betting right on the stock market. A guy can make a lotta money betting on destruction….which is still destruction.
Celebrating a plague because you invested in coffin futures is certainly an approach.
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

the economy is about more than betting right on the stock market.

Are you sure? Next thing that you are going to tell me is that maybe the outcomes aren't measured in timeframes of 24 hours. 

Sorry if the vapors of American consumerism are going to get a little more difficult to huff when you can't off shore slave labor and turn the other way cause meh quarterly reports. Suck it up buttercup. 

Are you sure? Next thing that you are going to tell me is that maybe the outcomes aren't measured in timeframes of 24 hours. 

Trust in a market and economy is definitely built in long-term timeframes.
Trust in a market and economy - like trust in anything or anyone - can be destroyed in 24 hours. Less, even.
Trust destruction? Going swimmingly.
Any inkling of even a coherent foundation for building a long-term trust? Nope.
You are siding with the economic strategy of a man who literally made up a fake authority that is an anagram of his own name to cite in his book. This is fantastic. That you are all-in on it with zero chance of ever admitting you might have it wrong makes it even better.

Nikkei down fractionally today.  Maybe the worst is behind us and we’re back to #todamoon?

So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.

Same. I forgot where I was and jumped right in. My bad, surly.
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Sorry if the vapors of American consumerism are going to get a little more difficult to huff when you can't off shore slave labor and turn the other way cause meh quarterly reports. Suck it up buttercup. 

When is this happening, exactly?

4 hours ago, horn4life said:

So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.

 

1 hour ago, scottsins said:


Same. I forgot where I was and jumped right in. My bad, surly.

Literally can’t be separated anymore. Y’all good. 

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

Nikkei down fractionally today.  Maybe the worst is behind us and we’re back to #todamoon?

On one hand maybe so, on other hand all the money fleeing every crack and corner of the us system has to go somewhere. 

5 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

When is this happening, exactly?

Chinese pharmaceutical, textile, and tech supply chains. 

6 hours ago, scottsins said:


Same. I forgot where I was and jumped right in. My bad, surly.

The moment Brisket repped my post I knew I had gone too far. 

9 hours ago, horn4life said:

So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.

You’re fine. This moment in the markets is a product of politics. You’re not saying anything that bond traders and analysts on Bloomberg aren’t. 

8 hours ago, Anastasis said:

You are only proving the point of that last sentence you quoted. Do whatever the guys at jpm tell you with your trades. I’ll keep running my play.  

So, trolling, basically?  You’re trying to have this both ways, as discussed on another thread. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you seem to essentially have taken these two positions concurrently:

1) The current tariff regime is mainly just a continuation of the previous one, and that the reaction is a function of political bias/crisis actors/bothsides™️

AND

2) The current tariff regime is a disruptive negotiating position, but will be resolved by late summer, one way or another. 
 

First, I think these two things are in conflict. But since the first position is both patently absurd and strictly political, we’ll agree to keep that one in the CR. 
W/R/T the second position, you *seem* to have said you are basically long and intend to ride it out, and in the meantime you are trading vol swings for cash flow since there’s money to be made if you can stay on the right side of the boom. 
 

Do I have that right?

So I have enjoyed the planting of the flag on the flaws in the Dow as an index, rather than the basic decline of all indexes.  In this, the Dow is not unique, it is falling along with all US stock indexes.  Does that mean somehow all the indexes are flawed?    All I know is betting against the DOW has me up like 60% on my invested capital this year,  So a decent quarter for sure by anyone's standards, and the best quarter I have ever had by far and away.

Is it because I was betting against a flawed index?  Or because I identified flawed policy and bet against that?  I think we all know the answer to that one.

Wait until the market starts to see the inflation and unemployment numbers that were absolutely the single most likely scenario of Trump's tariff scheme start creeping in.  Last week saw the first blip of folks staying on the rolls longer.  This week we should see the first signs on inflation creep.  And the solution?  Press Powell to come in and save the child from his own flawed policies, before any actual data is put forth.  As like ANYONE with a brain knows, tariffs are inflationary!  But wait... we have been told tariffs are a miracle cure, and they do not cause inflation!  So does Powell act on what history has ALWAYS told us regarding tariffs? Or does he believe the unserious claims of the executive branch implementing policy?

If SPY breaks 500 again, then so help me God I'm going to YOLO all my cash into broad-market equity index funds like the sensible and dutiful middle-aged Gen X'er that I am.

Probably a lot of people in the same boat. What else are we going to do? Hookers and blow? I'm too old for that shit.

1 minute ago, tokamak said:

If SPY breaks 500 again, then so help me God I'm going to YOLO all my cash into broad-market equity index funds like the sensible and dutiful middle-aged Gen X'er that I am.

Probably a lot of people in the same boat. What else are we going to do? Hookers and blow? I'm too old for that shit.

If we break 500 again and there is no clear line of sight to trade deals getting done, I'm afraid it's just going to keep sliding. There is no 90 day pause type action that can stop the bleeding again. The only hope will be that enough people like you YOLO off the sidelines and turn the market. Other indicators (10 year/shipping activity/consumer sentiment/dollar weakening) will make this difficult IMO.

23 minutes ago, tokamak said:

If SPY breaks 500 again, then so help me God I'm going to YOLO all my cash into broad-market equity index funds like the sensible and dutiful middle-aged Gen X'er that I am.

Probably a lot of people in the same boat. What else are we going to do? Hookers and blow? I'm too old for that shit.

 

18 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

If we break 500 again and there is no clear line of sight to trade deals getting done, I'm afraid it's just going to keep sliding. There is no 90 day pause type action that can stop the bleeding again. The only hope will be that enough people like you YOLO off the sidelines and turn the market. Other indicators (10 year/shipping activity/consumer sentiment/dollar weakening) will make this difficult IMO.

I don’t think retail investors are in a position to turn this market. Furthermore, and I can‘t emphasize this strongly enough, there is no combination of bilateral “trade deals” can get these BBs back in the box. I‘m not predicting doom or making any directional predictions, but I am saying this is terra incognita.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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