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Featured Replies

2 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

My advice, disconnect your economics education from your short-term trading.

Or

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2 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

My advice, disconnect your economics education from your short-term trading.

Evergreen 

40 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Walmart down on the day, which surprises me.  Seems like they'd be buoyed by Chinese deal more than anyone.

30% is still an insanely high tariff rate.

41 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

I wonder whose stock market it is today?

The President

Spoiler

President Xi, he didn't give up anything and had tariffs reduced for 90 days

 

2 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

I wonder whose stock market it is today?

Mine

7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the krassenstein brothers are retarded.  they are the left's version of joe rogan.

Good to know. it popped up, and lately it has been difficult to tell Onion articles from the daily news. 

5 hours ago, horn4life said:

Anyone know why Soundhound (SOUN) is spiking today? +20% on the day?

Discourse comimg out of Geneva is that China will be more favorable to opening their markets..  These guys have business in China is my guess.  AI voice space is right up the China alley.

10 hours ago, horn4life said:

My Dad just told me … peace in … Ukraine

Your dad is as delusional as orange makeup man

On 5/16/2025 at 6:51 PM, Trenchtown said:

Not sure where to put this. It would potentially affect multiple markets so I guess it can go here. Haven’t seen it discussed at all but would be massive. 
 

My surface reading of this is it will be used to offset extending the existing tax cuts. The politics of that aside, it should hurt demand for Treasuries for sure and perhaps equities. At the same time it’s an unusual carve out that no one else around the world gives. We’ll see what happens. 
 

 

I’m no economist, but this bullshit does not seem good for rates. Assuming, I suppose, that one would prefer them lower as I do. 

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

But I don't think passing a huge debt fueled tax cut when there is already a lot of upward long term interest rate pressure is... super prudent. Particularily if that tax cut doesn't structurally change much, since it's really just an extension of a previous tax bill. 

Edited by Bateshorn

50 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

But I don't think passing a huge debt fueled tax cut when there is already a lot of upward long term interest rate pressure is... super prudent. Particularily if that tax cut doesn't structurally change much, since it's really just an extension of a previous tax bill. 

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing. 

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing. 

I wouldn't say we're doing exactly nothing...

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

That’s true, and if you were designing an incentive strategy to encourage other nations to dedollarize the global trade economy, you would unilaterally impose a broad based tariff regime that reduces imports and enlarge the deficit and weaken the dollar via domestic tax stimulus. 
 

46 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing

If only!

You think ten yr is fun, the 30 yr closed at highest since 2007. 
 

stable geniuses running shit… right into the mountainside. 

But gaze upon the crypto gains as people flee the USD!  #WINNING.

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is undefeated. 

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This is not an expression your president likes

 

We're HOT Tua.  You gotta put tariffs on that thang.

Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards.  Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise.  

Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers.  Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged.

"The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently.  Tariffs ahve been the closest shark.  Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise.  And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks.  Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not. 

 

On 5/29/2025 at 10:21 AM, horn4life said:

Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards.  Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise.  

Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers.  Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged.

"The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently.  Tariffs ahve been the closest shark.  Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise.  And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks.  Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not. 

 

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  
 

Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

Edited by jdhorn92

22 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  
 

Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

At what point does unemployment impact the economy from the pov that those ppl have no income. 

1 hour ago, jdhorn92 said:

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

It's impossible not to.  Tariff taxes on imports cannot be absorbed by manufacturer and US importing company.  Unless you think all companies have a shit ton of excess profits they can shed to absorb the new tax.  Ultimate whoever buys the product will absorb the majority of the cost increase.  It's just math.

Market will indeed take off like a rocket if there is no inflation.  But we are going to get both unemployment and inflation.  And the Fed will simply not know which is the bigger shark until more data comes in.  Unless brutal unemployment numbers can overwhelm inflation concerns... hopes for Fed, or Bond market pushing rates downward is a bad bet.

 

On 5/28/2025 at 12:07 PM, washparkhorn said:

The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is undefeated. 

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Dos nasty

Holy shit. $118 currently. 4x in a day. I hope you sold!

I have a trailing stop order set at 10%. Floor at $103 currently.

What shall I do with the proceeds? Duh! Load up on IBRX! (Am I doing this right?)
2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

No you aren’t. Hookers and blow.

Excuse me, Sir. This is the stonks thread.

Hookers and blow should wait until IBRX rockets to the moon. The goal is a lifetime of hookers and blow while traveling the world, not one weekend in Vegas.

55 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Excuse me, Sir. This is the stonks thread.

Hookers and blow should wait until IBRX rockets to the moon. The goal is a lifetime of hookers and blow while traveling the world, not one weekend in Vegas.

I like the stonk. 

Ha. Zaslov basically ran the Warner Bros/Discovery merged company into the ground (while paying himself $100s of millions from shareholder value), and now he's effectively spinning off the pieces that are dragging down the company. And keeping the profitable areas for himself to run.

Warner Bros. Discovery to split into two public companies by next year

I don't hate him for putting so much money in his pocket but rather pointing out how boards fail to protect shareholders against strong CEOs. It's a big flaw in the public company space.

Regardless good news for shareholders that a good portion of their holdings will be separated from him.

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