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  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Any news causing the quick climb in the last half hour?

Deal to prevent trade war with Eurozone apparently.  

GRUB had a great day today. I have an exceedingly small position (8 shares), but hey, any time a stock goes up 25% in one day, that’s real money.

Edited by RiceOwl

Facebook getting hammered. Down 20% afterhours. Yikes! 

I’m interested in where it will bounce back to. I have some FB stock, so on paper today hurts. That said, it’s still double where it was a little over a year and a half ago. This last run up was very fast.

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

But Instagram!!!!

 

the P&G data point surprised the shit out of me in that it didn't get enough press or notice.  Can't believe other companies, at least that I know of, haven't started trimming their social media advertising budgets.

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

So where will they take their advertising money and spend it?

My wife, a teacher, said all the kids use snapchat now so it peaked my interest. Sort of interested, but once teens and young adults get in the target demo age for advertisers, will they still use snapchat?

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

I fell out of the 18-49 demo a couple of years ago.  But I am still relevant, dammit!

And I've bought a few things through FB ads.

Edited by Sbbruin

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Tomorrow's GDP number should be very interesting. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/kudlow-says-fridays-gdp.html

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow predicted that the second-quarter GDP release Friday will live up to the mounting hype.

"You're going to get a very good economic growth number tomorrow. Big," Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council, told the Fox Business Network in an interview Thursday.

While he said he could not speculate on where the number will land specifically, he did not disagree with a suggestion that it would be in the 4 to 4.5 percent range.

I haven't dug in to it yet, but Amazon had a pretty good quarter.

Just now, Yarbr said:

I haven't dug in to it yet, but Amazon had a pretty good quarter.

Yep.  Up 4% AH.  AMD had a huge day as well, up 14+%. 

3 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/kudlow-says-fridays-gdp.html

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow predicted that the second-quarter GDP release Friday will live up to the mounting hype.

"You're going to get a very good economic growth number tomorrow. Big," Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council, told the Fox Business Network in an interview Thursday.

While he said he could not speculate on where the number will land specifically, he did not disagree with a suggestion that it would be in the 4 to 4.5 percent range.

Barclays says 5.2, others revising down to 3.8. 

Anything north of 4% and the Fed is likely to accelerate rate hikes.

No cloak room, but debt financing stimulus during expansion is really stupid. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Barclays says 5.2, others revising down to 3.8. 

Anything north of 4% and the Fed is likely to accelerate rate hikes.

No cloak room, but debt financing stimulus during expansion is really stupid. 

Anything under 4 and the market is gonna be ugly tomorrow.  But I think we're in for a 4.5 number  

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Anything under 4 and the market is gonna be ugly tomorrow.  But I think we're in for a 4.5 number  

That feels about right to me. Barclays keeps reiterating 5.2 even today, which I find puzzling. Any  thoughts on why they might do that?

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

That feels about right to me. Barclays keeps reiterating 5.2 even today, which I find puzzling. Any  thoughts on why they might do that?

A lot of that is likely due to the gains in the O&G market during Q2, and it's not that far-fetched to imagine those gains will have an addt'l .7% effect on the market.  5.2 is a huge #, and yes, the FED will definitely act quickly on that.  Matter of fact, we could see a huge GDP # actually cause a major market fade over the course of the day as folks undoubtedly have reports typed up and ready to send when the big # does come out.  Think the GS and MS of the world.  

We're thinking about this the same way. I'm actually more worried about the higher number than the lower number given the anticipatory nature of valuations. 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

We're thinking about this the same way. I'm actually more worried about the higher number than the lower number given the anticipatory nature of valuations. 

Yep.   Consequences for everything even if they’re marginally ‘counter-intuitive’.  Even then, I’d be more happy seeing real economic growth associated with a number like that.   

Another factor in Barclays assessment is likely the 3.8% unemployment rate and numbers I’ve seen about 2.2mm fewer on food stamps and 1.8mm fewer SSDI recipients.  

Mid those people are employed and doing better for themselves, that will have a multiplicative effect in the real economy    

 

 

5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

P&G would be better off paying a Kardashian/Jenner to shove a bottle of fabreeze up their snatch on Instagram than giving FB ad dollars.

Gonna take more than Fabreeze to freshen that snatch.

CPI up 3%

Personal consumption up 4%

GDP up 4.1% on First estimate

Final Q1 up from 2 to 2.2% 

Business Investments 7.3 %

Massive increase in exports up 9.3% 

Edited by Trey3216

PCE inflator at 1.8%, that that could keep the FED at bay 

core CPI 2%

So I bought some KNX yesterday after it got hammered (I worked for them before grad school).  With the numbers above they should have some good gains if they can solve their driver shortage issues.  

Trey, curious on your thoughts on TWTR. 

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

GDP up 4.1% on First estimate

Markets all yawning. I'm guessing a 4% quarter was more or less expected and priced in. Anything less would have probably gotten ugly.

1 hour ago, Yarbr said:

Trey, curious on your thoughts on TWTR. 

Frustrating.  I think they’re a better platform going forward with the removal of bots and what have you.   Numbers were solid.  Caution on guidance did them in.     I do think it opens the. Back up as an M&A target.   The company’s momentum is pretty healthy in terms of Earnings, Rev, ARPU, and other metrics.  

22 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

You laugh, but my MIL buys dumb shit off facebook ads on a near monthly basis. I'm sure she's but one of millions doing so

45 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Twitter taking a huge hit today 

maybe you should post some more tweets, if possible

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

You laugh, but my MIL buys dumb shit off facebook ads on a near monthly basis. I'm sure she's but one of millions doing so

Like I said, P&G was very surprised when they pulled their online ad budgets.  They expected a sales hit but there was nothing.  The average time spent on their ads was something like 1.7 seconds.  P&G was one of the bigger spenders in online advertising, too.

I'll see if I can try and find a link later.  It's out there, though.....

HMNY is having a bad day down 65%

23 minutes ago, SDG said:

HMNY is having a bad day down 65%

Since the reverse split the other day they’ve dropped from 24 to 3.  Almost identical to DRYS.   They’ll reverse again next week and get taken to zero again.   Absolute dumpster fire 

Y’all should go read the StockTwits stream of HMNY.   It’s sad 

They didn’t have enough cash to purchase movie tickets yesterday. Out a fork in it...

The only question I have abbout HMN

6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

CPI up 3%

Personal consumption up 4%

GDP up 4.1% on First estimate

Final Q1 up from 2 to 2.2% 

Business Investments 7.3 %

Massive increase in exports up 9.3% 

So, Goldilocks. Good. 

6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Since the reverse split the other day they’ve dropped from 24 to 3.  Almost identical to DRYS.   They’ll reverse again next week and get taken to zero again.   Absolute dumpster fire 

I was really hoping I could buy some puts post reverse split, but I didn't see any listed, at my brokerages, at least. They burn 40-50 mil a month, and needed an emergency loan for 5 mil on Thursday to keep the dream alive...for a few days anyways. Pretty shady history laid out in this article

https://www.businessinsider.com/moviepass-owner-emerged-from-indian-company-accused-of-massive-fraud-2018-7

Edited by Blotto

3 minutes ago, Washpark said:

I bought FB today

I don’t do tech buy bought yesterday. We’ll see. 

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