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  • That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

  • Rusty Shackelford
    Rusty Shackelford

  • I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Live look at the stock market

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32 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

!Where’s that fucker now.

i want a signed copy of today’s Dow movement highlighting the last hour of trading.

Fuck that orange fuck.

Don't care, bought SQQQ!

3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Don't care, bought SQQQ!

How does an inverse fund work? I’m baffled that this is a thing but not surprised. I don’t have the balls for it, but am genuinely curious.

Im just out of the market and waiting to jump back in at the bottom-ish... 

16 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

How does an inverse fund work? I’m baffled that this is a thing but not surprised. I don’t have the balls for it, but am genuinely curious.

Im just out of the market and waiting to jump back in at the bottom-ish... 

-3X Nasdaq

26 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

How does an inverse fund work? I’m baffled that this is a thing but not surprised. I don’t have the balls for it, but am genuinely curious.

Im just out of the market and waiting to jump back in at the bottom-ish... 

The managers of the fund use options contracts (discussed above) to match the intended direction and leverage of the bet.  In this case, magnifying 3x the nasdaq100 going down.

 

The problem is because of requires very active management, there is a high fund fee, and it has decay -- over long term the fund doesn't track its target (nasdaq100) very well.

 

Basically use it if you have a high conviction on your bet over the course of days.  Don't hold onto it for long time hoping the market will "catch back up" to your bet because your money is basically getting shaved everyday

Edited by 52-80

8 hours ago, Lurch said:

Same, -13% seems a reach

Damn good prognosticators here.  Seriously, I would have thought there was no way in a day.

27 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The managers of the fund use options contracts (discussed above) to match the intended direction and leverage of the bet.  In this case, magnifying 3x the nasdaq100 going down.

They actually use swaps, but everything else is spot on and good info.

29 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

For a wild ride, try TVIX. What a month.

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

40 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

I bought some VXX calls on that friday.  I remember your post. I wish I was still holding them but I sold them with the spike on the following monday.   

45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

Wow, I just checked the term structure here http://vixcentral.com/

Looks like VXX should benefit from massive backwardation for a while, as the VIX usually doesn't tail off that fast

1 hour ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Smart move.  Global Central Bank action won't stop this ugly bubble they've been building since 2009.  

 

Disregard earlier comment.  Short selling ban shouldn’t be a big factor.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets

31 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good christ, to have bought into VXX ~ Feb 24 or so.

Yeah, when it was around $12-13/sh.   That’s when I was talking about it.  I looked at the weekly $20 calls for the next week and the were around $.05/sh.  They closed that week at over $10/sh.  $5k would have made me $1mm.    Was either that, or buying 2k shares of TVIX is what I was looking at ($38.50/sh) or both.   Would have made millions.   Couldn’t convince myself to pull the trigger all the way.  I’m sick 

Not to go to CR...but these companies got MASSIVE tax bailouts.  They used all that money to buy back their own stock.  And now that money is essentially up in smoke.  Profit?

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not to go to CR...but these companies got MASSIVE tax bailouts.  They used all that money to buy back their own stock.  And now that money is essentially up in smoke.  Profit?

and pay senior management yuge bonuses

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

and pay senior management yuge bonuses

Why keep cash reserves right?   Fucking idiots.  You wouldn't run your household like that, so why the fuck do you run a fortune 500 company like that?  

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah, when it was around $12-13/sh.   That’s when I was talking about it.  I looked at the weekly $20 calls for the next week and the were around $.05/sh.  They closed that week at over $10/sh.  $5k would have made me $1mm.    Was either that, or buying 2k shares of TVIX is what I was looking at ($38.50/sh) or both.   Would have made millions.   Couldn’t convince myself to pull the trigger all the way.  I’m sick 

I bought 04/17 16 calls on 2/21.  I paid 1.64 and sold them at 2.50-2.60.  Felt pretty fucking good about myself with a one day turn.  Those calls are worth 45.95 today. 

9 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Why keep cash reserves right?   Fucking idiots.  You wouldn't run your household like that, so why the fuck do you run a fortune 500 company like that?  

I absolutely fucking would run my household like that if every time I pissed away my money, there was a big group of people to give it back to me penalty free. 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good christ, to have bought into VXX ~ Feb 24 or so.

 

Overnight trading looks to be sleeping off a bender. Or perhaps puke and rally?

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Man, just give me a quiet day. Need a few in a row to feel like we’ve made a bottom. Long term returns looking better and better by the day though.

I'm convinced the S&P 500 will drop to 1750 (it >might< hold there).  Should the SOXS (the bearish ETF for semis) drop into the 20's, am buying a chunk and holding for the ride up. My goal is to sell at 50, but if I see more downside, will let it ride.  In June, SOXS was a $70 stock.  

52 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Overnight trading looks to be sleeping off a bender. Or perhaps puke and rally?

All this whipsaw up & down action gives you a chance to make some good bank, all you have to do is buy & sell at the right time.
Easy peasy - or the most mind numbing, gut-wretching kick in the nuts, day in & day out.
Just depends how you look at it
 

I don’t have the stomach for this shit.... just tell me when to buy for the ride up.

After all the heel nippers are burned down across all the various industries the giants that remain standing will further consolidate their empires....Darwin at his finest.  

3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

After all the heel nippers are burned down across all the various industries the giants that remain standing will further consolidate their empires....Darwin at his finest.  

Yeah, at some point either megacorps like XOM are a "buy" or the whole thing is fucked.  It's down almost 60% from the 52-week high.  (Admittedly, the oil price war is a big part of that and should be considered.)

With no sports to Bet on right now, may see more gamblers placing bets in the stock market for awhile... 

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18 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

With no sports to Bet on right now, may see more gamblers placing bets in the stock market for awhile... 

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Not 2, red - $SPY puts, you lose

5 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Don't care, bought SQQQ!

Futures up 3.3% right now.  Of course we could be limit down by opening bell tomorrow.

Gotta love it when your 40% cash position turns into a 50% cash position without making any trades.  That happens when the 60% gets fucking poleaxed.

Yeah, at some point either megacorps like XOM are a "buy" or the whole thing is fucked.  It's down almost 60% from the 52-week high.  (Admittedly, the oil price war is a big part of that and should be considered.)

I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

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2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I'm convinced the S&P 500 will drop to 1750 (it >might< hold there).  Should the SOXS (the bearish ETF for semis) drop into the 20's, am buying a chunk and holding for the ride up. My goal is to sell at 50, but if I see more downside, will let it ride.  In June, SOXS was a $70 stock.  

We have a couple big events remaining.  I got out thinking the large sports/events cancellations would hit.  Then I thought about quarantines in general.  The next two big ones that seem inevitable are cancellation/severely limiting domestic flights and the actual deaths/hospitals being overwhelmed.  I see both of those happening although I'm more sure about the latter, vs former.  I will likely push all the chips I have left back in at 2000 but 1750 is a realistic bottom.  I think the fed fucked up shooting all their bullets already.  We were gonna drop to these levels with or without their tricks.  After the virus and when we get into recovery, that's when economic stimulus makes sense to me.  What can people fucking buy right now anyway?  But either way...this was bound to be a mess.  

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

commercial toilet paper has been pretty wild for a while

5 minutes ago, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

Probably will happen this week....

It's been a topic of conversation on both CNBC and Bloomberg since last Thursday.

7 minutes ago, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

If this continued the rest of the year, yes.  I don't see that happening.  It may flare back up in Fall but we will have a couple months of reprieve in summer - that's my somewhat educated guess.  

24 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

3ffa612c98928da14427c96769d0c33a.jpg

I have averaged XOM down so far it’s finally making sense. Dammit 

Just now, UTexasFight said:


I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

 

this is me. fml.

I am now buying every x% drop in the S&P and NASDAQ. My portfolio is about 40% equities from 5% now and only down less than 5%. 

Just now, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

Yeah, the bond funds in this market are shit. Shows that the markets aren't working that highly rated bonds are getting crushed albeit way less than equities. 

4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

and pay senior management yuge bonuses

Trickle-down economics, sugar babies get nice gifts 

14 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

commercial toilet paper has been pretty wild for a while

Toilet Paper Comedy GIF

Yeah, the bond funds in this market are shit. Shows that the markets aren't working that highly rated bonds are getting crushed albeit way less than equities. 

So where do I hide.
My 401k has no cash/money market option.

Or just plug it all to the most conservative bond fund in my plan and take single digit vs double digit losses and be happy?

[obligatory]you shouldn’t be messing with your 401k. Stick to the plan if you aren’t retiring in the next decade /obligatory
2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

My 401k has no cash/money market option.

what? is that a thing?

Edited by Anastasis

Just now, UTexasFight said:


So where do I hide.
My 401k has no cash/money market option.

Or just plug it all to the most conservative bond fund in my plan and take single digit vs double digit losses and be happy?

[obligatory]you shouldn’t be messing with your 401k. Stick to the plan if you aren’t retiring in the next decade /obligatory

are you already in cash?

i am moving my cash to equities slowly. 

i will take the single digit bond loses as i still get the dividend and the bonds will bounce back to par




So where do I hide.
My 401k has no cash/money market option.


I've never heard of that. I suspect that whoever told you that was wrong. Otherwise you need to call those guys and chew them out.

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