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Update:

Weather models are showing (I'll be back if they change):

Tonight: Clouding up by dinner time.  "Frontal" type squall line comes through overnight, can drop a lot of rain maybe.  Not nec. severe but 1-2 could be.  Rain lingers after that... could be a 1"-2" event for a lot (yeah, we'll see).

Wed.: more or less dry day, a "break" between the 2 systems.
Thurs.: 2nd bigger low moves toward us, rain picks up Thurs. afternoon.  Periods of heavy rain scattered.
Fri.: same - on/off all day periods of rain, some heavy.  Too early to tell if all day or 1-2 concentrated periods.
Sat.: rain moves out by evening.  Between Fri.- Sat. 2"-5" could fall in some spots.  Everyone should get at least an inch or so.

Always dicey to predict this stuff but I'll be back if the above looks like crapola eventually.

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Looks like some good thing happening in Right places for Travis. 

10 hours ago, Hate said:

If this verifies, it would probably fill up Lake Buchanan for the winter.
00947579f03761df996ece206880f5f4.gif

For some reason the purple/red/orange looks like a pig (facing east) taking a green shit. the orange in the middle kinda looks like a longhorn. I need glasses. 

Looks like we'll get it nice and muddy right before ACL.

13 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Looks like we'll get it nice and muddy right before ACL.

That is not mud. 

Edited by Anastasis

Man that was quite the lightning show a bit ago. Pouring in 78717. 

I always wanted to have that cool Bill Paxton moment in Twister where the tornado hits and they're yelling, "Its coming...its headed right for us." And he's all "Its already here!"

Can't even find decent Twister giphs...like that.

Any reports of significant hail with this? I literally just had a roof replacement done.

LCRA is showing good rain bombs in Lago Vista, etc. over the last hour.  1" +.  Hope it makes its way into Austin, so far just sprinkles.

#disappointment

I'm watching a nice lightning show to the north of me.  Meanwhile, I can look up and see stars.

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

LCRA is showing good rain bombs in Lago Vista, etc. over the last hour.  1" +.  Hope it makes its way into Austin, so far just sprinkles.

#disappointment

Nice reverse jinx

9 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Force field is going to fuck us like a mom here in south Austin.

You rock. I saw your dad's desk you were working on in the wood thread...that's bad ass. It has been pouring buckets since about 8:20...dayum. 

South Austin just getting teased, so here is a rushed drone shot because I forgot to charge the batteries.

6CE46AA3-2F76-4137-96D0-040AB428D623.jpeg

It’s lightning like crazy here in Hewitt.   Still not raining much though.   

Edited by Trey3216

Just now, Nicole44 said:

That's a bad ass shot...

Ehhh, I missed some much better ones because I was very rushed, and the wind was crazy up at 200 feet. 

According to LCRA's hydromet, as of 9:00 p.m. Lago Vista was up over 3 inches. 

1556124044_ScreenShot2021-09-28at9_04_09PM.thumb.png.ffc52f73af18cbdd30d8b3c618d8545a.png

And South Austin WILL GET NOTHING AND LIKE IT!

32 minutes ago, hornian said:

Nice reverse jinx

You're welcome, neighbor.  Just checked hydromet -- 1.54" in the last hour.  Ha ha! forcefield!  You lose!

Creek behind the house was running at 2 cfs at last reading a couple hours ago. Gonna guess it’s close to 100 right now and the rain is still slowly increasing. Lookin like a good day to kayak tomorrow!

The LCRA gauge by me, at Bull Creek/360, shows 1.85” so far and it just started pouring again. 

We're getting a lot of rain in The Manchaca.

According to LCRA's hydromet, as of 9:00 p.m. Lago Vista was up over 3 inches. 
1556124044_ScreenShot2021-09-28at9_04_09PM.thumb.png.ffc52f73af18cbdd30d8b3c618d8545a.png
And South Austin WILL GET NOTHING AND LIKE IT!

I live in south Austin and am enjoying a nice steady rain and a whiskey on the porch.

Also, it’s never dry in south Austin with the deluge put out by South Austin’s mom.

We're getting a lot of rain in The Manchaca.

Sounds painful. Maybe you could see a doctor?
2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

That is not mud. 

I’ll never forget the year they put Dillo Dirt in Zilker right before ACL years ago only to have it rain right before and during the festival. Watching drunk/high patrons running and sliding head first in that sludge was pretty disgusting. 
 

 

Yep. 78749 has been good. We haven’t got shit for a while until tonight

Also, have over 2 1/2 inches in the rain gauge in 78750. Was raining buckets earlier.

Edited by Ewreck10

1 hour ago, Ewreck10 said:

I’ll never forget the year they put Dillo Dirt in Zilker right before ACL years ago only to have it rain right before and during the festival. Watching drunk/high patrons running and sliding head first in that sludge was pretty disgusting. 
 

 

Yes. That would be the reference. 

2 hours ago, hornian said:

And South Austin WILL GET NOTHING AND LIKE IT!

'45 here. Plenty of rain. Up and down congress. 

holy shit that sounded like a bomb went off just now!

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

holy shit that sounded like a bomb went off just now!

For the last half hour or so it seems like big ones going off towards central Austin (or points east).  

2 hours ago, mchookem said:

holy shit that sounded like a bomb went off just now!

Sorry. Had a pretty big burrito a couple hours ago. 

It was suddenly, and powerfully, loud, South of town, several times tonight. Our black mouth cur mix has fucks on credit. If a fuck is needed, other folks better handle it. She has no fear. She wants her belly rubbed, right now.

It’s pouring, once again.

Edited by Willfully Horn
Phrasing

Looks like upper Bull Creek was the winner over the last 12 hours, with almost 5 inches 

 

0671BB67-341F-489F-A650-FB262BD9E5A3.jpeg

11 hours ago, miguelito said:

I'm watching a nice lightning show to the north of me.  Meanwhile, I can look up and see stars.

You arrogant ass.  Nonstop thunder from 10-midnight, and 3-6, with 3.9" of rain with it. 

image.jpeg.48688ebb3b1ba70219c1a6fb6893cbe7.jpeg

that was the warm up for the main event?  noice.

Ever had the lightning strike so close, that you couldn't hear the initial thunderclap because the sound wave generated outside of the sphere of space that you shared with the lightning? That happened to us last night. 

Update:

Not much change to the forecast, Round 1 did its job.

The only change from my post yesterday is that the systems are moving slower than at first, so the 2nd system will move in late Thursday, not late tonight.

Today rain still lingers, but the sun should actually come out afternoon.
Thursday, not today, is our dry "break" day.
Friday/Saturday are the big rain days.  Could see 2-3 more inches easily widespread.

ACL looking more and more like a humid, smelly, muddy mess - if they don't axe some of each day entirely.

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