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Featured Replies

The Fed won’t admit it but they are trying to create a recession, because it’s the only way to get wage growth under control and get real estate supply higher. Both of those are needed to fix the wonky economic environment. 

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  • alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

  • Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

  • Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Luckily haven't personally been impacted yet but it's getting ugly out there.

Usually not completely caught off guard by the 'who' when it comes to layoffs but even some good ones are getting caught up in the mess now.

Yep. That’s when you know it’s bad when they actually cut competent people that know their job and not just use last quarter to get rid of underperforming people. 

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The Fed won’t admit it but they are trying to create a recession, because it’s the only way to get wage growth under control and get real estate supply higher. Both of those are needed to fix the wonky economic environment. 

They also need a recession to tamp down demand for consumer goods.  

Powell opens his mouth and the MBP market falls 47 points.  No rally for you. 

I don’t understand this market reaction at all…

  • Author
16 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t understand this market reaction at all…

Basically this

burn-it-all-down-kiki-burn.gif

Market is reacting to the possibility of the 50bip hike in 2023. It already priced in 2022 hikes. Powell said there could be some economic growth coming, which gives him more cover for more hikes 

6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

college gameday sport GIF

now up 300

We talking bonds dude, not stocks. 

Just now, Incredulity said:

Sad Shame GIF

But- to your point, MBS are now up 3 for the day. They were down 47 points 20 minutes ago. 

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

But- to your point, MBS are now up 3 for the day. They were down 47 points 20 minutes ago. 

Big Deal Diva GIF

7 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Luckily haven't personally been impacted yet but it's getting ugly out there.

Usually not completely caught off guard by the 'who' when it comes to layoffs but even some good ones are getting caught up in the mess now.

That’s the worst. I went thru 6 or 7 at one company as it slowly died. After the second, it’s no longer just fat trimming. 

2 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Saw posted somewhere today. 
 

6.2% $392,000 - $2,402/m

2.6% $600,000 - $2,401/m

Yikes. 

6% $600,000 - $3,600/m. 

  • Author

No one look at the 10 year numbers, just go outside and take a nice long walk.  

53 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

No one look at the 10 year numbers, just go outside and take a nice long walk.  

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2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

No one look at the 10 year numbers, just go outside and take a nice long walk.  

So is my hard money loan at 10% on a 5+ actually a decent rate at this point?

  • Author
4 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

So is my hard money loan at 10% on a 5+ actually a decent rate at this point?

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Is down 84 basis points in the MBS market good for the day?  How about being down 225 points since last monday?  Is that any good?

2YT ripping this morning.  10YT should follow?

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3 hours ago, Esque said:

2YT ripping this morning.  10YT should follow?

Flat as of right now 

I’m going to guess in this backyard after he threw his monitor through the office window about mid-day

4 hours ago, bluto said:

Where’s that black background green font rate chart for today 

Usually on Monday gets posted. Hint- it won’t be pretty. 

  • Author
1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Usually on Monday gets posted. Hint- it won’t be pretty. 

At least the day ended in the red considering where the morning started 

19 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

At least the day ended in the red considering where the morning started 

Yeah not a great start  or middle. We did get up a couple points in the MBS market before ending down 3, but that’s nothing. Basically flat. 

It sucks for first time homebuyers. Although I’m super impressed with this generation trying to get a home. When I was 24, I could barely afford rent as most of my salary went to booze. This kids are like, I have 20K in savings. 

On 9/24/2022 at 9:56 AM, Neonmoon said:

It sucks for first time homebuyers. Although I’m super impressed with this generation trying to get a home. When I was 24, I could barely afford rent as most of my salary went to booze. This kids are like, I have 20K in savings. 

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

1 minute ago, gurt said:

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

Damn that’s dark and depressing, largely agree though. ‘Needing’ to enter the rat race in full sprint before late 20s… invest in Zoloft I suppose. 

35 minutes ago, gurt said:

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

All of this is true, but I'd say you have to figure it out by the time you are 17 as opposed to 21.  School is so fucking expensive right now, and if you don't go to the school that makes financial sense for you in light of what your career and earnings are going to be you are stuck behind the 8 ball. You make that decision at 17.  My daughter is 11 and yammering about wanting to go to UCLA. I'm like- that's 250k to do that- you aren't getting that from your mom and I (we are planning on 50k per kid, maybe as much as 100k total). So, if she goes to UCLA she will get out with 150k or 200k in debt.  Better not be an art history major sweetheart.  She's 6 years away from making that decision. It's really really really wild to think about.  

Same as always- this doesn't mean this will be your loan. This isn't a guarantee to lend.  This is just what it is- the averages for mortgages on Friday.  We are down 77 basis points today- that's about 1/4 of a point worse than what you are looking at on this chart.  I'm going to go suck my thumb in the corner right now and cry.

30-YR. CONFORMING

6.511% +0.112

30-YR. JUMBO

6.204% +0.031

30-YR. FHA

6.226% +0.074

30-YR. VA

6.190% +0.105

30-YR. USDA

6.204% +0.072

15-YR. CONFORMING

5.585% +0.032

 

Oh man that is brutal.  Home prices fixin to take a wholesale beating if that keeps up.

28 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Oh man that is brutal.  Home prices fixin to take a wholesale beating if that keeps up.

Except there isn’t much inventory at all. Rates are pushing buyers out of the market but the number of sellers is tiny and shrinking. 

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Except there isn’t much inventory at all. Rates are pushing buyers out of the market but the number of sellers is tiny and shrinking. 

Some people don’t have the luxury of picking when to sell.  The other thought I had is how many variable rate / ARM instruments are there still in the market?  Those are about to bite a giant shit sandwich.

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Some people don’t have the luxury of picking when to sell.  The other thought I had is how many variable rate / ARM instruments are there still in the market?  Those are about to bite a giant shit sandwich.

There’s shouldn’t be many close to expiring. Most took care of that the last couple years. 

There are still a lot of people who bought as much as they could possibly afford when prices were at their highest and interest rates were at their lowest. So unless they have suddenly started making a lot more, they are probably struggling to pay the note with inflation now. It won't take much to break that dam.

  • Author

Me and @Wulaw Horn will be mowing lawns for the foreseeable future if you need to know where to find us 

What's the current break point between conventional and jumbo pricing?

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

What's the current break point between conventional and jumbo pricing?

705k or something like that.  Doesn't officially happen until after the first of the year but many lenders are already offering that/allowing that. 

23 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Me and @Wulaw Horn will be mowing lawns for the foreseeable future if you need to know where to find us 

I told my wife if she ever wanted to teach school now would be a good time for it.  They need teachers in the schools and, well, that insurance and shit isn't free and doesn't pay for itself.

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Oh man that is brutal.  Home prices fixin to take a wholesale beating if that keeps up.

plotting episode 4 GIF

29 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Me and @Wulaw Horn will be mowing lawns for the foreseeable future if you need to know where to find us 

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Only down 137 points now.  Don't worrry, I will post another one of those happy little charts tomorrow I think...

My vacation was nice, and with rates this high, I also have time to work on my second book. 

  • Author
15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

My vacation was nice, and with rates this high, I also have time to work on my second book. 

Get into gambling 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I told my wife if she ever wanted to teach school now would be a good time for it.  They need teachers in the schools and, well, that insurance and shit isn't free and doesn't pay for itself.

My wife "teaches" private preschool.  She and I were having the "where do we go from here" talk the other night and I was shocked to find out that AISD substitute teachers are apparently making roughly as much (per day) as full-time teachers are.  That used to not be the case, and I'm not sure it isn't wishful thinking on her part, but still, if true, substitute teaching here we come, 'cause that's about a 40% raise for her.

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My wife "teaches" private preschool.  She and I were having the "where do we go from here" talk the other night and I was shocked to find out that AISD substitute teachers are apparently making roughly as much (per day) as full-time teachers are.  That used to not be the case, and I'm not sure it isn't wishful thinking on her part, but still, if true, substitute teaching here we come, 'cause that's about a 40% raise for her.

That's not how it is in our ISD.  It's $85.00 per day for a college degreed person.  Way less than a normal teacher makes. 

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's not how it is in our ISD.  It's $85.00 per day for a college degreed person.  Way less than a normal teacher makes. 

Like I said, could be wishful thinking on her part, or some random breakroom chatter that she believed.

EDIT:  looked it up for AISD, max amount is $225/day, some of which she wouldn't qualify for (retired AISD, special ed, etc.).  It would probably be a net raise for her if she worked 20 days/month, but she'd surely not do that, because reasons.

Edited by jimmyjazz

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