Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

I just learned lake Jackson texas has inventory coming out of their ears this week!  

  • Replies 11.4k
  • Views 755.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

  • Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

  • Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

Posted Images

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I just learned lake Jackson texas has inventory coming out of their ears this week!  

As does Westlake Hills.  Small towns all over do!

On 6/30/2023 at 9:40 AM, SydneyCarton said:



I bought my first home, a townhome, at 33. I scraped and scratched and clawed just enough money to get an FHA loan with 5% down, and had to pay PMI.

Yeah no.

He probably meant the annual MIP for FHA. It’s mortage insurance either way. Same same. 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

He probably meant the annual MIP for FHA. It’s mortage insurance either way. Same same. 

Yes. Mortgage insurance. Gil bang’d

On 7/1/2023 at 1:23 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I just learned lake Jackson texas has inventory coming out of their ears this week!  

Dow layoffs?

6 hours ago, WBT said:

Dow layoffs?

Don’t think so. Apparently they have been busy building houses down there. Who knew? 

This Housing Wire article was free, had some good info about inventory levels. March 2022 had lowest level ever recorded in history. Still not great inventory now.

Here is a good graph

image.png.d593ba376dfee11e54ad1222cbba2eb8.png
 

MBA Purchase Application Data

image.png.57a5233ce5c2a97ffd2d6f5f11e07ef6.png

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This Housing Wire article was free, had some good info about inventory levels. March 2022 had lowest level ever recorded in history. Still not great inventory now.

Here is a good graph

image.png.d593ba376dfee11e54ad1222cbba2eb8.png
 

MBA Purchase Application Data

image.png.57a5233ce5c2a97ffd2d6f5f11e07ef6.png

Yep.  This is what makes me laugh about people who are waiting around for the bottom to fall out of the market on price- yeah- not going to happen when there isn't any inventory, even if rates are cursedly too high.  

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep.  This is what makes me laugh about people who are waiting around for the bottom to fall out of the market on price- yeah- not going to happen when there isn't any inventory, even if rates are cursedly too high.  

I wonder if people aren't starting to get used to rates in the 6.x% range.  Those of us who have been around for near forever know these aren't historically high rates.  If incomes aren't keeping up (and they aren't), it still puts downward pressure on what type of home a given individual might be interested in.

Weird times.

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wonder if people aren't starting to get used to rates in the 6.x% range.  Those of us who have been around for near forever know these aren't historically high rates.  If incomes aren't keeping up (and they aren't), it still puts downward pressure on what type of home a given individual might be interested in.

Weird times.

Yeah, I see some extra people in the market- either I'm getting more as a percentage than I was earlier in the year or else there are more people in the market. I think eventually people are going to decide to pull the trigger regardless of rates if they need to.  But yeah, that's not pushing pricing down as a general rule.  Some areas may be different of course.  Austin might be one.  But overall appreciation is happening the last couple months and we are down something like less than 2% year over year.  On pace to be up 3 or 4% on the year last I saw. 

  • Author
19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wonder if people aren't starting to get used to rates in the 6.x% range.  Those of us who have been around for near forever know these aren't historically high rates.  If incomes aren't keeping up (and they aren't), it still puts downward pressure on what type of home a given individual might be interested in.

Weird times.

Yeah, it’s also a lot of younger buyers as well that never experienced the lower rates like you said. Also a decent amount of buyers are doing the 1/1, 2/1 etc buydowns and building it in to seller contributions 

8 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah, it’s also a lot of younger buyers as well that never experienced the lower rates like you said. Also a decent amount of buyers are doing the 1/1, 2/1 etc buydowns and building it in to seller contributions 

What do you mean by 1/1 vs 2/1 buy down, and how is seller able to pay that?

1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

What do you mean by 1/1 vs 2/1 buy down, and how is seller able to pay that?

3/2/1, 2/1, and 1/1 are all temporary interest rate buy downs. It’s just pre-paid interest that is escrowed. The buyer can pay the money or the seller can provide a seller concession in the contract. 

For example, if todays interest rate is 7%, a 2/1 buy down lowers your interest rate to 5% the first year, and 6% the second year. The interest between 7% and 5% the first year, and 7% and 6% the second year, is collected upfront at closing and put in an escrow. 

It lowers the buyers monthly payment in hopes they refinance in the next two years 

 

 

Local credit union is advertising a free 3 year rate swap. Saw the billboard but haven't investigated. Sounds a little like what you just described.

The issue is the seller has to pay for the concession and with as little inventory as there is and as much competition as there is amongst buyers what seller wants to do that?  I’m way more likely to be working with a buyer competing with multiple offers than I am one with a chance in hell of getting the seller to shell out 10k or 15k in concessions. 

We’re still seeing seller concessions as we do have some older homes. We also have realtors that structure the offer with 10K in seller concessions and 10K over ask. It’s a risk with the appraisal, but homes appraising over ask is common in our area with limited inventory and still positive appreciation 

  • Author
1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

We’re still seeing seller concessions as we do have some older homes. We also have realtors that structure the offer with 10K in seller concessions and 10K over ask. It’s a risk with the appraisal, but homes appraising over ask is common in our area with limited inventory and still positive appreciation 

This. Basically whatever you need/want you just go up by that. Almost every time we’ve negotiated it or used it the seller was amenable. They’re still netting the same. As long as it’s not a stupid high amount over usually it stays within the appraisal. We have a shaggy guy doing it right now and it was zero issue. 

So buyers are financing pre-payment of interest to improve monthly cashflow in the hopes that in 24 months they are in a place to lock in that monthly payment long term.  correct?

 

Can't wait to hear the howling from the MSM and stunned borrowers who are surprised to learn what they really signed up for if it doesn't work out.

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

So buyers are financing pre-payment of interest to improve monthly cashflow in the hopes that in 24 months they are in a place to lock in that monthly payment long term.  correct?

 

Can't wait to hear the howling from the MSM and stunned borrowers who are surprised to learn what they really signed up for if it doesn't work out.

Yes.  But, you have to qualify on the real number, so it shouldn't be a problem beyond psychology if the play doesn't work. There should be affordability and ability to pay. 

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

This. Basically whatever you need/want you just go up by that. Almost every time we’ve negotiated it or used it the seller was amenable. They’re still netting the same. As long as it’s not a stupid high amount over usually it stays within the appraisal. We have a shaggy guy doing it right now and it was zero issue. 

Last week I had 3 buyers put in offers.  They all came back with highest and best multiple situations. I hope I start running into some of this but haven't seen it much yet.  I'm ready to have a buyer submit a solid offer and get the house 8/10 or 9/10 like it used to be.  

The Dodd-Frank act amended TILA (Regulation Z) to require lenders to make sure the borrower has the ability to repay the loan based on the full note. It doesn't matter if you're selling an ARM or a Temporary Buydown, they borrower must be qualified and have the ability to repay on the fully indexed rate. Not only that, Dodd-Frank required lenders to provide Disclosures within 3 days of application. 

If a borrower is "stunned" by the full rate after agreeing to the particular product, having their LO explain multiple times, their attorney explaining it, and signing upwards of 30 documents about it, then we probably should just stop allowing people to obtain loans under their own volition. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The Dodd-Frank act amended TILA (Regulation Z) to require lenders to make sure the borrower has the ability to repay the loan based on the full note. It doesn't matter if you're selling an ARM or a Temporary Buydown, they borrower must be qualified and have the ability to repay on the fully indexed rate. Not only that, Dodd-Frank required lenders to provide Disclosures within 3 days of application. 

If a borrower is "stunned" by the full rate after agreeing to the particular product, having their LO explain multiple times, their attorney explaining it, and signing upwards of 30 documents about it, then we probably should just stop allowing people to obtain loans under their own volition. 

 

 

Counterpoint- I ran a fee attorney closing shop for 5 years.  Borrowers eyes glass over the second you start to explain a document to them and they go into a coma where they sign and pay no attention to anything for an hour.  Not all, but many.  But yeah, I agree with your general point for sure but there will still be some that just don't get it/ don't understand why their payment goes up in 2 years... 

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

If a borrower is "stunned" by the full rate after agreeing to the particular product, having their LO explain multiple times, their attorney explaining it, and signing upwards of 30 documents about it, then we probably should just stop allowing people to obtain loans under their own volition. 

I agree totally.  I am fine with people having access to alternative loan products and making informed decisions about what suits their needs.  Yes, the disclosures are ad-nauseum.  IMPO they were even before Dodd-Frank.  

 

You know damn well there will be crying foul/"i didn't know" if it doesn't work out.  Doesn't matter how many forms some people sign.

 

 

Unpopular opinion, and I promise I’m saying this in good faith and not as a criticism of people just trying to do business: holy shit, people are essentially rolling negative equity into mortgages even though rates haven’t eclipsed 7.5%

What could possibly go wrong?

8 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

Unpopular opinion, and I promise I’m saying this in good faith and not as a criticism of people just trying to do business: holy shit, people are essentially rolling negative equity into mortgages even though rates haven’t eclipsed 7.5%

What could possibly go wrong?

Maybe? Maybe not? Maybe go fuck yourself.  

It's not really as bad as all that imo (and I've not done one of these merely b/c we've never been in the situation to do one- we are perfectly capable of doing them) b/c the money sits there and goes to the borrower anyway if and when they refinance, and if they don't and it all gets spent it's not technically negative equity b/c the property appraised for that value (though you and I both know the seller would have sold it for 10k less regardless of what it appraised for).  Probably nobody is getting hurt.  Probably.  

  • The Wire GIF

Home purchasing is absolutely becoming(has been) like car purchasing.

 

What can i afford???

Nahhhh....

 

What PAYMENT can i afford???

No kidding.  My stepdaughter went to buy a new car.  I told her to have a pre-approved loan from a credit union and to only haggle price.  First thing that happens -- "so what's your monthly budget"?

I'm sure you can imagine what transpired from there.

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No kidding.  My stepdaughter went to buy a new car.  I told her to have a pre-approved loan from a credit union and to only haggle price.  First thing that happens -- "so what's your monthly budget"?

I'm sure you can imagine what transpired from there.

She fixes the cable?

47 minutes ago, Incredulity said:
  • The Wire GIF

Home purchasing is absolutely becoming(has been) like car purchasing.

 

What can i afford???

Nahhhh....

 

What PAYMENT can i afford???

It’s something that I always have to ask though. And it’s basically a sanity check on the buyer. Ok Mr. buyer- what is the price point of your house?  300k?  Cool. What kind of payment were you expecting on that?  1200 huh?  Alright- you planning on putting down 250k then as a downpayment?  

Maybe? Maybe not? Maybe go fuck yourself.  
It's not really as bad as all that imo (and I've not done one of these merely b/c we've never been in the situation to do one- we are perfectly capable of doing them) b/c the money sits there and goes to the borrower anyway if and when they refinance, and if they don't and it all gets spent it's not technically negative equity b/c the property appraised for that value (though you and I both know the seller would have sold it for 10k less regardless of what it appraised for).  Probably nobody is getting hurt.  Probably.  

Yeah you’re right, it’s harmless unless it becomes popular.

Context: my grandfather, father, and uncle built 6000 homes from 1945-2009. They saw everything. From sleeping on rail cars of “their” lumber in the lumberyard siding in 1947 to 19.5% rates during the Volker stagflation. 2009 unable to get buyers financed at more than break-even prices, owned and lost an S&L in the early 80s.

I really need to ask my 81 year old uncle what kinds of stuff they did over the years to get stuff sold.
19 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:


Yeah you’re right, it’s harmless unless it becomes popular.

Context: my grandfather, father, and uncle built 6000 homes from 1945-2009. They saw everything. From sleeping on rail cars of “their” lumber in the lumberyard siding in 1947 to 19.5% rates during the Volker stagflation. 2009 unable to get buyers financed at more than break-even prices, owned and lost an S&L in the early 80s.

I really need to ask my 81 year old uncle what kinds of stuff they did over the years to get stuff sold.

If it’s interesting hope you share it here. 

16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If it’s interesting hope you share it here. 

Co-signed.

 

my guess: It’s all been done before.

 

excited for the chapter on price controls.  

Edited by Incredulity

Holy shot. Down 64 basis points today in the market at the opening bell. This is going to be the worst pricing we’ve seen in this run. Unbelievable how bad shit is right now the last 3-5 days, for no reason other than fed fuckery. Inflation has created. An economy contraction is coming. That will lead to job losses and the like. The fed is driving by looking at the rear view mirror not the windshield. 
ADP reported 500k new jobs. Really interested to read the underlying on that. Continuing claims and new claims were actually worse than expectations. I can’t fathom 500k new jobs in this environment. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn

30 year average was at 7.08 yesterday at close. If this keeps up it will be at 7.25 by end of today. Holy hell what a clusterfuck. 

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

ADP reported 500k new jobs. Really interested to read the underlying on that. Continuing claims and new claims were actually worse than expectations. I can’t fathom 500k new jobs in this environment. 

I'd bet the pay on those new jobs is <$40k/yr (<$20ish/hr), which isn't enough to really do much of anything these days

  • Author
12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If it’s interesting hope you share it here. 

It’s whatever is above ZJs because the 10 year is above 4.00 again 

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I'd bet the pay on those new jobs is <$40k/yr (<$20ish/hr), which isn't enough to really do much of anything these days

That or people taking a second or third job.

Bonds down 92 basis points. Brutal

Might just take the next week off. I doubt anyone would notice

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Bonds down 92 basis points. Brutal

Might just take the next week off. I doubt anyone would notice

Off from surly or off from work?

  • Author
1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Bonds down 92 basis points. Brutal

Might just take the next week off. I doubt anyone would notice

Yeah I’m about to email these lenders and be like just stop sending me your rates are rising here’s the new rate sheet emails. 

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Off from surly or off from work?

I don't get paid to Surly...yet

41 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I don't get paid to Surly...yet

There are a lot of employers paying for folks to post on Surly.  They just don't know it.

  • Author
56 minutes ago, South Austin said:

There are a lot of employers paying for folks to post on Surly.  They just don't know it.

image.gif.330396b13ffbbfb1e88af97d4712d369.gif

I took the week off but I’ve been been keeping up with the thread because I’m addicted to bad news.  

14 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Pucker your buttholes.

No worries there dude. Already puckered. 

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Feds report says ADP report is full of shit,  should be some relief.

 

I saw + 209K, is that wrong?

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I saw + 209K, is that wrong?

ADP report was much higher yesterday 

Rates went up expecting Fed to continue rate increases 

209 is below expectations so the fed MIGHT not have to keep raising rates

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.