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We've hit resistance on the MBS Market right now- if we bust through this (up 24 basis points on the day- 100 over the last 3 days or so) we will end up having even more fun, probably.  

October 30, 2023- inflection point.  

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Missed the 3.9xx one. So I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.8xx which could happen by lunch. 3.928 currently. 

image.png.d8af66d2fe70ef61bb4db1f0ca41fd91.png

Image result for nice gif

what does a 75 bps cut translate to for avg 30 year rate?

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5 minutes ago, gurt said:

what does a 75 bps cut translate to for avg 30 year rate?

Like the one they’re factoring in for 2024?  I’d say low 5’s 

31 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Like the one they’re factoring in for 2024?  I’d say low 5’s 

right that was what I meant.  That is good to hear.

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31 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Low 5s by end of 2024?

That’s the hope. But there’s all sorts of things that could happen/come up between now and then. That’s just my gut 

I absolutely figure at some point intents right borrower will be getting a rate that starts with a 4 sometime in 24 and strongly suspect something that starts with a 3 between now and 2026 EOY. 

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7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I absolutely figure at some point intents right borrower will be getting a rate that starts with a 4 sometime in 24 and strongly suspect something that starts with a 3 between now and 2026 EOY. 

Promise 4 and see how that goes. And I’m on your side of fours 

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Promise 4 and see how that goes. And I’m on your side of fours 

Not a promise, but I think that happens. Maybe we dodge a recession )that would be against al the historical numbers) in which case no cuts and probably not, but I think we get at least a mild one and that should be enough to drop a point or so which is all we need for “the right borrower and deal” to get into 4’s. 

Williams speaks up in an attempt to ruin the party. Trying to talk down the bulls. 

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8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Williams speaks up in an attempt to ruin the party. Trying to talk down the bulls. 

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Was wondering what happened- thanks.  Twas a wild ride.  At 7:30 Central we were up 10 basis points in the mbs market.  Then, at 8:01 we were down 40.  now, at 8:14 we are back to zero on the day.  Looks like maybe the bulls shrugged him off?

Be interesting to see what the cap markets do with pricing in an hour- are they going to view that as the down 40 we were early or go with level to start the day.  Lots going on right now market wise for no reports being published today...

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Be interesting to see what the cap markets do with pricing in an hour- are they going to view that as the down 40 we were early or go with level to start the day.  

You know they're going to keep as much back as they can just in case

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

You know they're going to keep as much back as they can just in case

That's my supposition.  Also it's Friday- pricing is generally soft on Friday it seems like.  They don't want a ton of exposure going into the weekend without being able to course correct/lay off risk with options I suppose. 

On 12/14/2023 at 5:47 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I absolutely figure at some point intents right borrower will be getting a rate that starts with a 4 sometime in 24 and strongly suspect something that starts with a 3 between now and 2026 EOY. 

 

On 12/14/2023 at 7:09 PM, Neonmoon said:

5s is a very healthy market. Make it so 

 

Yeah, the 5s is where I want to end up.  

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I feel like the 10 year is mostly gonna coast through these next two weeks. Keep it at or below 4.000 come Jan 2 and I’m a happy camper 

10 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I feel like the 10 year is mostly gonna coast through these next two weeks. Keep it at or below 4.000 come Jan 2 and I’m a happy camper 

PCE is out Friday. That’s the last market mover (potentially) of the year. Flat to up 1/10th would be good as it would bring inflation under 3, which should send the markets off and running in a positive direction.  
selfishly, I’d like to see MbS up 50 basis points in the next couple weeks and then have it chill out there for about 3 months and see if we can catch our breath from some of this roller coaster and begin a graduated retreat. 

Yeah I'm tired of the roller coaster. 

I'm also tired of realtors sharing interest rates on Instagram like that's legal 

Edited by Neonmoon

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On 12/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Only thing about this program is they could have gone a little lower with the preset percentages. They’re lower than current but comparative to 210 days ago they’re not. 

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

So, I looked at all the stuff and here is where it boils down to...

Most likely FHA and VA's closed between 11/15/22 and 1/2/23, plus VA's in April of 23 and FHA's in March, April and May of 23, more or less.  Now- once you get into July all the VA's and FHA's are going to make sense between July and december 1 or so- but they have to be 210 days away on the payment.  So- that's the sweet spot in your pipeline that's going to make sense. I had 4 or 5 people hit those parameters.  If you can get a mailing list of people that closed with those loans you are good.  Also- keep in mind that retail branches especially load up rate on FHA and VA- and the idea they have is not necessarily to refinance your pipeline but the asshole down the streets pipeline.  

Hope that helps.  I have a way of figuring out everything except rate on someone else's pipeline- so I can bust out a list of 1000 people almost overnight that closed during those times (I'm just using the ST. Louis fed average interest rate database) but I can't mico target for actual rate- but rather have to deal with date as a proxy for someone who it "probably" makes sense for. I want to buy that list with rate and contact but can't find that out there, so I guess I'm just going to old school send some mailings out and see what happens.  

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

Their turn times are behind right now.  I think it was a way for them to narrowly stress test their system so that when we go into full on refinance mode they know what kind of staff they are going to need to keep the railroad running on time.  

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

A “things could be worse”  happy reminder.

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On 12/7/2023 at 6:57 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

This. It’s by far the most annoying and horrid thing about our job. And as mentioned above you guys I’ve been working with for 15+ years now (all the way back to Hornfans) so for it to just absolute annihilate you guys every single time when I run your credit makes me feel like a horses patoot 

12 calls in the last hour. Thanks Phil!  
 

*messing with you. I know it’s not your fault. 

On 12/7/2023 at 10:39 AM, UT_OB1 said:

Your link may be 100% OK, but it is amusing that it takes you to a somewhat random appearing site (not a .gov or anything) and says you’ll need to give your name, address, DOB, and SSN.  Lol hard pass

 

3 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

12 calls in the last hour. Thanks Phil!  
 

*messing with you. I know it’s not your fault. 

 

Maybe you should try that link I provided 😉

 

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On 12/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Only thing about this program is they could have gone a little lower with the preset percentages. They’re lower than current but comparative to 210 days ago they’re not. 

They opened up the 5.499 option on FHA and VA but are kind of still on the same scale of the 5.75 costs x etc so while it’s an option it’s not overly a great one. Maybe they’ll keep reading my bitching on here and shift the whole subset of the offer and actually make everyone a good deal 

23 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

 

 

Maybe you should try that link I provided 😉

 

Nah. I just switched my phone to silence calls that aren’t from contacts

  • Author
On 12/14/2023 at 10:10 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Missed the 3.9xx one. So I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.8xx which could happen by lunch. 3.928 currently. 

I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.7xx. Nice little 2 day run has us at 5 month lows at 3.87 at the end of today. 

9 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

First American is under cyberattack

I heard about this from a client today. Sounds like a mess.

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16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

The year starts in July? We need another 0.60 to get to March lows 

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9 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

The year starts in July? We need another 0.60 to get to March lows 

Nm misread. Thought it was saying lows. Let’s get to March lows of 3.28

Inflation came in cooler than expected. Mbs prices are… down.  Hmmmm. Thought that might be springboard to go higher but certainly no complaint about the run we’ve been on the last month or so.  

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation came in cooler than expected. Mbs prices are… down.  Hmmmm. Thought that might be springboard to go higher but certainly no complaint about the run we’ve been on the last month or so.  

I’m liking the odds of keeping the 10 year under 4.00 by EOY

12 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I’m liking the odds of keeping the 10 year under 4.00 by EOY

No doubt. 

85% of people still have a mortgage under 6%. We still need rates to come down more

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46 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Zaaaamnnn I see you 10 year 

 

On 12/20/2023 at 3:21 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.7xx. Nice little 2 day run has us at 5 month lows at 3.87 at the end of today. 

I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.6xx

Edited by UTPhil2006

On 12/21/2023 at 11:31 AM, Gil Bang said:

First American is under cyberattack

Earlier Fidelity and Mr. Cooper/  They're making the rounds

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Earlier Fidelity and Mr. Cooper/  They're making the rounds

I have friends still at Mr. Cooper and they were shutdown for almost 2 full weeks. And that's a 100% shutdown, not a single employee (except for some IT who were in charge of thge rebuild), not a single closer, not a single funder, no payoff statements issued for the largest non-banking servicer in the country. 

  • Author
16 hours ago, shnsajax said:

I have friends still at Mr. Cooper and they were shutdown for almost 2 full weeks. And that's a 100% shutdown, not a single employee (except for some IT who were in charge of thge rebuild), not a single closer, not a single funder, no payoff statements issued for the largest non-banking servicer in the country. 

Damn. 

34 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Live look at MBS in 2024

anigif_original-grid-image-27915-1424054799-4.gif.f5cdf20c7eb9053ef9d9bb2110f86187.gif

Starting the way last year did if I recall correctly. 
 

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Live look at MBS in 2024

anigif_original-grid-image-27915-1424054799-4.gif.f5cdf20c7eb9053ef9d9bb2110f86187.gif

Still below 4.00 on the 10 year and a lot of the the damage was done yesterday.. gotta think this is a little leveling off from the week we had between Christmas and NYE drop. 

We’re down 24 bips on mbs market at one time today and now only down 2. Getting better. 

  • Author
10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We’re down 24 bips on mbs market at one time today and now only down 2. Getting better. 

Yep we need Neon to reverse jinx more often 

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yep we need Neon to reverse jinx more often 

Why do you think I post on football threads when we’re down? 

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