April 9Apr 9 18 minutes ago, LTtxfan said: ⬆Please explain @Wulaw Horn like I'm a 5yr old. Just curious how mortgage market and real estate market are currently doing?? Interest rates have gone up about 5/8 of a point in the last 72 hours. Not great.
April 9Apr 9 Author 1 hour ago, LTtxfan said: ⬆Please explain @Wulaw Horn like I'm a 5yr old. Just curious how mortgage market and real estate market are currently doing?? 10 year was at 3.88 Friday morning. It is at 4.45 today. Anything above say .05/day is not crazy bad but bad. .57 in basically 3 mornings is horribad. We were basically in here in mid February so not all is lost, but there was a massive potential for a crapton of people to refi that went poof (for now).
April 9Apr 9 well spreads are spiking up to and maybe past 163 basis points on top of a 10-year treasury hitting 4.43%. So might stick above 7%. So... not good. Oh, and steel, lumber, copper, and aluminum are tariffed fubar'd so builders are gonna be pinched. At least oil might hit $40 and tens of thousands of unemployed can learn how to hang cheap Chinese drywall.... oh wait. But my selling mom's house and closes 4/30 (under contract) so maybe it's all good.
April 9Apr 9 1 minute ago, LCHorn said: Is Habib saying anything positive? Nope. Nothing positive to say beyond- of this all gets wrapped up one way or another we should snap right back. But nobody knows what the end game is so who knows?
April 9Apr 9 2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said: 10 year was at 3.88 Friday morning. It is at 4.45 today. Anything above say .05/day is not crazy bad but bad. .57 in basically 3 mornings is horribad. We were basically in here in mid February so not all is lost, but there was a massive potential for a crapton of people to refi that went poof (for now). Thx to you and Wulaw for explanations... crazy that rates have moved up that much... 😬
April 9Apr 9 4 minutes ago, LTtxfan said: Thx to you and Wulaw for explanations... crazy that rates have moved up that much... 😬 It's not normal stuff for sure. The world is super volatile right now. It's hard and frustrating operating in that market environment.
April 9Apr 9 4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: It's not normal stuff for sure. The world is super volatile right now. It's hard and frustrating operating in that market environment. Some builders likely in a bind with volatility of materials prices
April 9Apr 9 within an hour of each other, two of my investor clients called me and told me to stop searching for them; they are holding off any further investments and hoarding cash. 4 million worth of cash buyers gone in a poof. Thanks, Obama?
April 9Apr 9 1 hour ago, Gil Bang said: within an hour of each other, two of my investor clients called me and told me to stop searching for them; they are holding off any further investments and hoarding cash. 4 million worth of cash buyers gone in a poof. Thanks, Obama? My Austin realtor buddy (so damn tight we had the same blood type) said he had some clients from Denver cancel on him when Donald won the election
April 10Apr 10 1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said: Down .09 to start the day. Emphasis on start the day And now we reprice for the worse…
April 10Apr 10 The US bond market is behaving in a very scary way... US dollar drop, stocks drop, US bonds drop...
April 10Apr 10 20 minutes ago, westexhorn said: The US bond market is behaving in a very scary way... US dollar drop, stocks drop, US bonds drop... So…what you’re saying is that, considering the future, we should all invest in the cannabis industry?
April 10Apr 10 1 hour ago, westexhorn said: The US bond market is behaving in a very scary way... US dollar drop, stocks drop, US bonds drop... Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
April 10Apr 10 30 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said: Can you explain this to me like I'm 5? sheeet go in the water, water go in the cup, water go in the stomach, sheet come out your butt sheet go in the water, water go in the cup, sheeet go in the stomach, blood come out your butt
April 10Apr 10 2 hours ago, UTGrad98 said: Can you explain this to me like I'm 5? Everything US getting sold which could mean decreased confidence in the US by the market (including foreign funds). Usually see this type of behavior in 3rd world country markets. US (particularly US treasuries) could be losing its impression as safe haven. Anyways, just plenty to think about and monitor.
April 10Apr 10 So, an arbitrage trade might be available between stocks, bonds and the dollar? Explain it to me like I'm 6.
April 10Apr 10 SIAP - 2025 Travis CAD appraisals are up: https://travis.prodigycad.com/property-search
April 10Apr 10 5 minutes ago, smokebomb said: SIAP - 2025 Travis CAD appraisals are up: https://travis.prodigycad.com/property-search Up 12%. Doesn't surprise me, our last appraisal dropped 31% in one year, which seemed absurd.
April 11Apr 11 Author 2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said: Up 12%. Doesn't surprise me, our last appraisal dropped 31% in one year, which seemed absurd. Promise I'm getting back to you on this. It's been a week
April 11Apr 11 Predicting the direction of 10 year rates right now is impossible. We have multiple competing data points. Inflation is down, but has the potential to sky rocket because of US debt levels and tariff policies. Interest rates could drop like a rock as we tumble into a self-induced recession. Or, they could stay relatively the same as the yield curve normalizes. I’ve just been laddering bonds. Screw predicting. It’s impossible.
April 11Apr 11 18 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said: Promise I'm getting back to you on this. It's been a week No worries, I'm not going anywhere
April 11Apr 11 I'll explain it to y'all like you're 5. We're turbo fucked. Fucking morons are in charge. Prepare your anus.
April 11Apr 11 Author 5 hours ago, Gil Bang said: I'll explain it to y'all like you're 5. We're turbo fucked. Fucking morons are in charge. Prepare your anus. I actually think it goes down the next 10 days but I'm not Habib and I think the Astros are hosed this year
April 11Apr 11 I was convinced we were going to see +25 to +30 on the MBS 5.5 coupon yesterday. Instead it opened at like -3 and just kept dropping from there. Usually when there’s this much volatility there’s some move towards an equilibrium in which we recover maybe half of what we lost, but I don’t think we’re done yet with the price deterioration.
April 11Apr 11 12 minutes ago, LCHorn said: I was convinced we were going to see +25 to +30 on the MBS 5.5 coupon yesterday. Instead it opened at like -3 and just kept dropping from there. Usually when there’s this much volatility there’s some move towards an equilibrium in which we recover maybe half of what we lost, but I don’t think we’re done yet with the price deterioration. Good inflation report the other day. Apparently everyone is hoarding gold!
April 11Apr 11 PPI came in way lower than expectations, so, that’s interesting. I don’t fully understand tariffs being a 1 time inflation event and not a big shock to the final number- but I do know that’s a prevailing school of thought. I guess it will kill demand either way price hikes and not lead to more money chasing fewer goods on one hand, but on the other prices all will go up, so I don’t understand the balance point or the measurement aspect of it. if we can dodge stagflation that’s obviously positive as compared to worst case possibilities with however this shakes out.
April 11Apr 11 5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: PPI came in way lower than expectations, so, that’s interesting. I don’t fully understand tariffs being a 1 time inflation event and not a big shock to the final number- but I do know that’s a prevailing school of thought. I guess it will kill demand either way price hikes and not lead to more money chasing fewer goods on one hand, but on the other prices all will go up, so I don’t understand the balance point or the measurement aspect of it. if we can dodge stagflation that’s obviously positive as compared to worst case possibilities with however this shakes out. The Eurodollar podcast guy thinks a recession is imminent. Granted, I mostly stopped listening to that one because he’s been saying that since 2022.
April 11Apr 11 59 minutes ago, LCHorn said: The Eurodollar podcast guy thinks a recession is imminent. Granted, I mostly stopped listening to that one because he’s been saying that since 2022. Recession should push 10 year lower and MBs higher and be good for interest rates, unless we go thermo nuclear in the bond market with active fuxjery feom all parts of the globe. Which, is obviously on the table right now. i tend to think that won’t happen but I’m just a wild eyed optimist!
April 11Apr 11 Author 2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said: Down 55 this morning. Back to worst case before the massive rally the other day. Bout landing where I thought. You wanna take odds on Texas vs Kentucky?
April 11Apr 11 8 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said: Bout landing where I thought. You wanna take odds on Texas vs Kentucky? Don’t call it a comeback! Reprice for the better- now down “only” 23 on the day. texas 2/3 over Kentucky.
April 11Apr 11 And now back to 41 down for the day. Reprice for the worse coming 30 minutes after reprice for the better!
April 11Apr 11 Author I guess as @Captainant wants the beatings will continue to morale improves. Hopefully your guy locked you or used his points with you
April 11Apr 11 Thankfully we're locked in below 7. And yeah there's gonna be lots of time for us all to take a few rounds in the barrel in the name of LIBERATION
April 12Apr 12 On 4/10/2025 at 6:02 PM, jimmyjazz said: Up 12%. Doesn't surprise me, our last appraisal dropped 31% in one year, which seemed absurd. Up 11%. Makes sense when you think about how sales prices are still down in the metro. /s
April 14Apr 14 1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said: 10 year down .09 but basically just getting back to Thursdays levels Will take it! MBS up 33 right now. If we stay there should close the day below 7 after that ugliness was brought back into our life.
April 15Apr 15 we are all in a shitty situation, and it's gonna get turbo-shittier. Plan accordingly. Me? Fuck it, I'm gonna party like a mofo.
April 15Apr 15 MBs up 20 basis points. We’ve clawed back to where we were last Wednesday maybe? Got a long. Trip to go still to get back to where we were last Friday at lunch time, which was the best of the interest rate markets in 2025 so far (he said) hopefully.
April 15Apr 15 Author Still got .30 and really .40 to go on the 10 year to get to the Lows of 10 days ago. But I'll gladly take .05/day to get there
April 18Apr 18 Any advice on finding a decent realtor for someone looking to purchase a residence in north Austin? Feel free to PM me suggestions. Would be appreciated.
April 18Apr 18 1 hour ago, GW Hayduke said: Any advice on finding a decent realtor for someone looking to purchase a residence in north Austin? Feel free to PM me suggestions. Would be appreciated. Sent.
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