March 16, 20214 yr 17 minutes ago, joeycovers said: Grand Canyon i must admit that i was surprised to learn that an online school had a basketball team
March 16, 20214 yr Author Anyone got an updated list? on the road driving and don’t have my notebook to keep tabs.
March 16, 20214 yr Cleveland State for me. I was hoping that they would be available for my final pick - I think they could be a spoiler. Remaining teams are just the 16 seeds, at least by my count: 16 Norf/app st 16 MTSM/TXSO 16 Hartford 16 Drexel
March 17, 20214 yr And now I select the 16 seed who will pull the second big upset just like I picked UMBC. Hartford @BigOrange1
March 17, 20214 yr Author That puts Norfolk and app state for Derka. Anyone want to go ahead and put everyone’s team together in one post?
March 17, 20214 yr Team Poster Clemson BigOrange1 Florida St. BigOrange1 Illinois BigOrange1 Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern BigOrange1 Ohio St. BigOrange1 Oklahoma BigOrange1 Oklahoma St. BigOrange1 Texas Tech BigOrange1 BYU HornOnTheBayou Florida HornOnTheBayou Oral Roberts HornOnTheBayou San Diego St. HornOnTheBayou St. Bonaventure HornOnTheBayou UNC-Greensboro HornOnTheBayou Villanova HornOnTheBayou Wisconsin HornOnTheBayou Colgate Huckleberry Georgia Tech Huckleberry Hartford Huckleberry Iowa Huckleberry Oregon St. Huckleberry Rutgers Huckleberry Syracuse Huckleberry Virginia Tech Huckleberry Georgetown Jack Straw Iona Jack Straw Kansas Jack Straw Loyola-Chicago Jack Straw Morehead St. Jack Straw North Carolina Jack Straw Texas Jack Straw Virginia Commonwealth Jack Straw Gonzaga joeycovers Grand Canyon joeycovers Maryland joeycovers Missouri joeycovers North Texas joeycovers UC-Santa Barbara joeycovers Utah St. joeycovers Winthrop joeycovers Alabama Prepuce of Doom Cleveland St. Prepuce of Doom Eastern Washington Prepuce of Doom Liberty Prepuce of Doom LSU Prepuce of Doom Michigan St./UCLA Prepuce of Doom Ohio Prepuce of Doom Oregon Prepuce of Doom Abilene Christian shadow_operative Arkansas shadow_operative Connecticut shadow_operative Houston shadow_operative Michigan shadow_operative Norfolk St./Appalachian St. shadow_operative Purdue shadow_operative Virginia shadow_operative Baylor Wulaw Horn Colorado Wulaw Horn Creighton Wulaw Horn Drake/Wichita St. Wulaw Horn Drexel Wulaw Horn Southern Cal Wulaw Horn Tennessee Wulaw Horn West Virginia Wulaw Horn Edited March 17, 20214 yr by Huckleberry
March 17, 20214 yr System draft rankings: Huckleberry - 108.09 HornOnTheBayou - 77.83 Wulaw Horn - 77.30 BigOrange1 - 66.36 Jack Straw - 62.94 shadow_operative - 62.70 Prepuce of Doom - 56.84 joeycovers - 55.79 GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once. Edited March 17, 20214 yr by Huckleberry
March 17, 20214 yr Is "the system" proprietary and confidential information? If not, care to share how it's weighted, executed, etc.?
March 17, 20214 yr 27 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said: Is "the system" proprietary and confidential information? If not, care to share how it's weighted, executed, etc.? Standard Adjusted Stats calculations. First calculate a normal power rating then go back through and calculate every team's standard deviation of performance. Then use those two values for each team to calculate the probability of each team winning each matchup.
March 17, 20214 yr 3 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said: Picks in draft order. Thank you for editing out all the screw-ups that @joeycovers and I kept making.
March 17, 20214 yr Author Huck/ can you post your draft order and expected points for All 64 teams now that we are done? Always interesting.
March 17, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said: Huck/ can you post your draft order and expected points for All 64 teams now that we are done? Always interesting. 1 hour ago, Huckleberry said: System draft rankings: Huckleberry - 108.09 HornOnTheBayou - 77.83 Wulaw Horn - 77.30 BigOrange1 - 66.36 Jack Straw - 62.94 shadow_operative - 62.70 Prepuce of Doom - 56.84 joeycovers - 55.79 GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once.
March 17, 20214 yr Author 1 minute ago, BigOrange1 said: Not that one (but I like that too) but the one where he posts each teams expected point value. I know Colgate or whatever was his number 1 with 35 points, but I’d like to see the rest.
March 17, 20214 yr Team EV Colgate 35.24 Rutgers 15.48 Villanova 15.42 Syracuse 15.40 Tennessee 15.23 Wisconsin 15.10 Southern Cal 15.08 Maryland 14.20 Connecticut 14.17 Creighton 13.11 Florida St. 12.55 Virginia Tech 12.27 Michigan St./UCLA 12.10 Texas Tech 11.84 Iowa 11.73 LSU 11.48 St. Bonaventure 11.08 Purdue 11.06 Colorado 10.99 Georgetown 10.95 BYU 10.85 North Carolina 10.69 Florida 10.48 Houston 10.43 Georgia Tech 10.34 Loyola-Chicago 10.00 Virginia Commonwealth 9.83 San Diego St. 9.62 West Virginia 9.24 Ohio St. 8.86 Virginia 8.86 Gonzaga 8.78 Kansas 8.62 Oklahoma St. 8.59 Utah St. 8.55 Clemson 8.53 Texas 8.50 Alabama 8.45 Oregon 8.35 Oklahoma 7.99 Missouri 7.55 Ohio 7.39 Illinois 7.18 Drake/Wichita St. 7.00 Oregon St. 6.85 Abilene Christian 6.33 Michigan 5.97 Baylor 5.74 Arkansas 5.63 UC-Santa Barbara 5.47 North Texas 5.01 Liberty 4.70 UNC-Greensboro 3.74 Winthrop 3.69 Eastern Washington 3.01 Grand Canyon 2.54 Iona 2.52 Morehead St. 1.84 Oral Roberts 1.54 Cleveland St. 1.36 Drexel 0.90 Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern 0.80 Hartford 0.78 Norfolk St./Appalachian St. 0.26
March 17, 20214 yr Should have picked Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern before Hartford but was looking at my list of individual team EVs. This leaves open the possibility that BigOrange will benefit from the second ever 16 over 1 upset.
March 17, 20214 yr Author Interesting... so Hucks computer is betting the under on Baylor being an elite 8 team. also, the expected value on the 16 seeds seem high, seeing as how they are something like 1-399 all time.
March 18, 20214 yr On 3/16/2021 at 8:35 PM, Huckleberry said: System draft rankings: Huckleberry - 108.09 HornOnTheBayou - 77.83 Wulaw Horn - 77.30 BigOrange1 - 66.36 Jack Straw - 62.94 shadow_operative - 62.70 Prepuce of Doom - 56.84 joeycovers - 55.79 GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT WARNING - 35 of my points are Colgate. Hahaha. Also, obviously I'm ahead because I use my system. I'm always 1st in this and I've won the thing exactly once. Hey Huck, will you send me your expected points per team? Want to run my league through it. I've got my own way of doing it but similar to you my team always comes out way ahead, so want a 3rd party post-draft ranking to send out. I'll run ya'll's through mine real quick too.
March 18, 20214 yr Here's what I have for ya'll. Wulaw Horn 71.9 HornOnTheBayou 69.2 BigOrange1 68.3 Huckleberry 65.1 shadow_operative 61.7 Prepuce of Doom 57.8 Jack Straw 56.6 joeycovers 53.4
March 18, 20214 yr Author I have watched less than 30 minutes of college hoops this year. I’ve never been more unprepared to know what’s going on in the post season. I’m gruntled by my position high up the rankings.
March 19, 20214 yr Sorry, I've kind of shit the bed on the Eight Pack thing so far, but if we're going to do it (I mentioned it as a $5 side bet - I think that amount makes sense, but all are welcome, not just the eight of us in the snake draft), then please PM me your picks before tipoff tomorrow. I feel like I have fucked this up by not mentioning it sooner, but I always allow people to pick a team play in game as long as they tell me before the team tips off, and if you don't pick them tonight, you can still pick them for the future, but you won't get credit for the play in game. Please PM me with a clear subject line and I promise that I won't open it until after tip tomorrow. If we are doing it, then I'm publicly declaring that I'm picking Michigan State before tonight's game.
March 19, 20214 yr 24 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said: Sorry, I've kind of shit the bed on the Eight Pack thing so far, but if we're going to do it (I mentioned it as a $5 side bet - I think that amount makes sense, but all are welcome, not just the eight of us in the snake draft), then please PM me your picks before tipoff tomorrow. I feel like I have fucked this up by not mentioning it sooner, but I always allow people to pick a team play in game as long as they tell me before the team tips off, and if you don't pick them tonight, you can still pick them for the future, but you won't get credit for the play in game. Please PM me with a clear subject line and I promise that I won't open it until after tip tomorrow. If we are doing it, then I'm publicly declaring that I'm picking Michigan State before tonight's game.
March 19, 20214 yr Post first four update: EVs Huckleberry - 108.08 Wulaw Horn - 77.49 HornOnTheBayou - 77.37 BigOrange1 - 65.82 Jack Straw - 62.86 shadow_operative - 62.72 Prepuce of Doom - 57.16 joeycovers - 55.76 Edited March 19, 20214 yr by Huckleberry
March 19, 20214 yr Spoiler By Poster BigOrange1, Clemson - 8.53 BigOrange1, Florida St. - 12.50 BigOrange1, Illinois - 7.18 BigOrange1, Ohio St. - 8.86 BigOrange1, Oklahoma - 7.99 BigOrange1, Oklahoma St. - 8.59 BigOrange1, Texas Southern - 0.32 BigOrange1, Texas Tech - 11.84 HornOnTheBayou, BYU - 10.64 HornOnTheBayou, Florida - 10.48 HornOnTheBayou, Oral Roberts - 1.54 HornOnTheBayou, San Diego St. - 9.62 HornOnTheBayou, St. Bonaventure - 10.83 HornOnTheBayou, UNC-Greensboro - 3.73 HornOnTheBayou, Villanova - 15.42 HornOnTheBayou, Wisconsin - 15.10 Huckleberry, Colgate - 35.24 Huckleberry, Georgia Tech - 10.34 Huckleberry, Hartford - 0.78 Huckleberry, Iowa - 11.73 Huckleberry, Oregon St. - 6.85 Huckleberry, Rutgers - 15.48 Huckleberry, Syracuse - 15.40 Huckleberry, Virginia Tech - 12.27 Jack Straw, Georgetown - 10.91 Jack Straw, Iona - 2.52 Jack Straw, Kansas - 8.60 Jack Straw, Loyola-Chicago - 10.00 Jack Straw, Morehead St. - 1.84 Jack Straw, North Carolina - 10.69 Jack Straw, Texas - 8.47 Jack Straw, Virginia Commonwealth - 9.84 joeycovers, Gonzaga - 8.78 joeycovers, Grand Canyon - 2.54 joeycovers, Maryland - 14.18 joeycovers, Missouri - 7.55 joeycovers, North Texas - 5.01 joeycovers, UC-Santa Barbara - 5.47 joeycovers, Utah St. - 8.55 joeycovers, Winthrop - 3.69 Prepuce of Doom, Alabama - 8.44 Prepuce of Doom, Cleveland St. - 1.36 Prepuce of Doom, Eastern Washington - 3.04 Prepuce of Doom, Liberty - 4.70 Prepuce of Doom, LSU - 11.25 Prepuce of Doom, Ohio - 7.39 Prepuce of Doom, Oregon - 8.35 Prepuce of Doom, UCLA - 12.62 shadow_operative, Abilene Christian - 6.23 shadow_operative, Arkansas - 5.63 shadow_operative, Connecticut - 14.15 shadow_operative, Houston - 10.43 shadow_operative, Michigan - 6.10 shadow_operative, Norfolk St. - 0.26 shadow_operative, Purdue - 11.06 shadow_operative, Virginia - 8.86 Wulaw Horn, Baylor - 5.74 Wulaw Horn, Colorado - 10.95 Wulaw Horn, Creighton - 13.10 Wulaw Horn, Drake - 7.54 Wulaw Horn, Drexel - 0.90 Wulaw Horn, Southern Cal - 14.78 Wulaw Horn, Tennessee - 15.23 Wulaw Horn, West Virginia - 9.24 By Team EV 1. Colgate, 35.24 - Huckleberry 2. Rutgers, 15.48 - Huckleberry 3. Villanova, 15.42 - HornOnTheBayou 4. Syracuse, 15.40 - Huckleberry 5. Tennessee, 15.23 - Wulaw Horn 6. Wisconsin, 15.10 - HornOnTheBayou 7. Southern Cal, 14.78 - Wulaw Horn 8. Maryland, 14.18 - joeycovers 9. Connecticut, 14.15 - shadow_operative 10. Creighton, 13.10 - Wulaw Horn 11. UCLA, 12.62 - Prepuce of Doom 12. Florida St., 12.50 - BigOrange1 13. Virginia Tech, 12.27 - Huckleberry 14. Texas Tech, 11.84 - BigOrange1 15. Iowa, 11.73 - Huckleberry 16. LSU, 11.25 - Prepuce of Doom 17. Purdue, 11.06 - shadow_operative 18. Colorado, 10.95 - Wulaw Horn 19. Georgetown, 10.91 - Jack Straw 20. St. Bonaventure, 10.83 - HornOnTheBayou 21. North Carolina, 10.69 - Jack Straw 22. BYU, 10.64 - HornOnTheBayou 23. Florida, 10.48 - HornOnTheBayou 24. Houston, 10.43 - shadow_operative 25. Georgia Tech, 10.34 - Huckleberry 26. Loyola-Chicago, 10.00 - Jack Straw 27. Virginia Commonwealth, 9.84 - Jack Straw 28. San Diego St., 9.62 - HornOnTheBayou 29. West Virginia, 9.24 - Wulaw Horn 30. Ohio St., 8.86 - BigOrange1 31. Virginia, 8.86 - shadow_operative 32. Gonzaga, 8.78 - joeycovers 33. Kansas, 8.60 - Jack Straw 34. Oklahoma St., 8.59 - BigOrange1 35. Utah St., 8.55 - joeycovers 36. Clemson, 8.53 - BigOrange1 37. Texas, 8.47 - Jack Straw 38. Alabama, 8.44 - Prepuce of Doom 39. Oregon, 8.35 - Prepuce of Doom 40. Oklahoma, 7.99 - BigOrange1 41. Missouri, 7.55 - joeycovers 42. Drake, 7.54 - Wulaw Horn 43. Ohio, 7.39 - Prepuce of Doom 44. Illinois, 7.18 - BigOrange1 45. Oregon St., 6.85 - Huckleberry 46. Abilene Christian, 6.23 - shadow_operative 47. Michigan, 6.10 - shadow_operative 48. Baylor, 5.74 - Wulaw Horn 49. Arkansas, 5.63 - shadow_operative 50. UC-Santa Barbara, 5.47 - joeycovers 51. North Texas, 5.01 - joeycovers 52. Liberty, 4.70 - Prepuce of Doom 53. UNC-Greensboro, 3.73 - HornOnTheBayou 54. Winthrop, 3.69 - joeycovers 55. Eastern Washington, 3.04 - Prepuce of Doom 56. Grand Canyon, 2.54 - joeycovers 57. Iona, 2.52 - Jack Straw 58. Morehead St., 1.84 - Jack Straw 59. Oral Roberts, 1.54 - HornOnTheBayou 60. Cleveland St., 1.36 - Prepuce of Doom 61. Drexel, 0.90 - Wulaw Horn 62. Hartford, 0.78 - Huckleberry 63. Texas Southern, 0.32 - BigOrange1 64. Norfolk St., 0.26 - shadow_operative
March 19, 20214 yr Today's Matchups: Seed Team (Current Points, EV, Poster - Win Probability) #10 Virginia Tech (0, 12.35, Huckleberry - 47.14%) vs. #7 Florida (0, 10.46, HornOnTheBayou - 52.86%) #14 Colgate (0, 32.48, Huckleberry - 52.57%) vs. #3 Arkansas (0, 5.81, shadow_operative - 47.43%) #16 Drexel (0, 0.87, Wulaw Horn - 3.95%) vs. #1 Illinois (0, 7.11, BigOrange1 - 96.05%) #11 Utah St. (0, 8.68, joeycovers - 35.17%) vs. #6 Texas Tech (0, 12.04, BigOrange1 - 64.83%) #15 Oral Roberts (0, 1.50, HornOnTheBayou - 7.24%) vs. #2 Ohio St. (0, 8.92, BigOrange1 - 92.76%) #16 Hartford (0, 0.76, Huckleberry - 3.91%) vs. #1 Baylor (0, 5.78, Wulaw Horn - 96.09%) #9 Georgia Tech (0, 10.39, Huckleberry - 49.08%) vs. #8 Loyola-Chicago (0, 9.94, Jack Straw - 50.92%) #12 Oregon St. (0, 6.95, Huckleberry - 27.30%) vs. #5 Tennessee (0, 15.07, Wulaw Horn - 72.70%) #13 Liberty (0, 4.69, Prepuce of Doom - 21.86%) vs. #4 Oklahoma St. (0, 8.61, BigOrange1 - 78.14%) #9 Wisconsin (0, 14.89, HornOnTheBayou - 53.21%) vs. #8 North Carolina (0, 10.84, Jack Straw - 46.79%) #15 Cleveland St. (0, 1.28, Prepuce of Doom - 6.33%) vs. #2 Houston (0, 11.01, shadow_operative - 93.67%) #13 North Texas (0, 5.09, joeycovers - 21.58%) vs. #4 Purdue (0, 10.97, shadow_operative - 78.42%) #10 Rutgers (0, 14.83, Huckleberry - 53.32%) vs. #7 Clemson (0, 8.44, BigOrange1 - 46.68%) #11 Syracuse (0, 15.33, Huckleberry - 47.50%) vs. #6 San Diego St. (0, 9.59, HornOnTheBayou - 52.50%) #14 Morehead St. (0, 1.82, Jack Straw - 9.43%) vs. #3 West Virginia (0, 9.12, Wulaw Horn - 90.57%) #12 Winthrop (0, 3.71, joeycovers - 19.34%) vs. #5 Villanova (0, 15.37, HornOnTheBayou - 80.66%)
March 19, 20214 yr I wanted to spread my picks around more so that I wouldn't have any crossed streams between my picks, but I generally hated the right side of the bracket for the purpose of this game.
March 19, 20214 yr I pasted the wrong EVs above but put the correct updated ones in the matchups post. What's important to note is that Colgate's EV is actually down three points already to 32.48 just from adding the First Four games. That's how weakly connected this shortened season made the teams. Just those four games had that big an impact.
March 19, 20214 yr 7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: So now I have the highest EV with Colgate losing? doesn't matter. i'll be taking this.
March 19, 20214 yr Wasn't just the Colgate loss, I also had Va Tech. Tough start for the Fighting Huckleberries.
March 19, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, HornOnTheBayou said: Y'all can go ahead and ship me that money now. Too bad your two accomplishments are due to collide in the next game though... Edited March 19, 20214 yr by Prepuce of Doom
March 19, 20214 yr Just now, Wulaw Horn said: fucking Rick Barnes! should have let Derka jump on thy Grenade. lol i wasn't touching that team with 10 foot pole. they were already bipolar to begin with, so once Fulkerson got his face smashed in during the SEC tourney i was all the way off the bandwagon, as far as Tennessee winning tourney games goes.
March 20, 20214 yr Horn of the Bayou: 36 Huck: 33 Joey: 13 Big Orange: 11 Jack Straw: 8 Derka: 5 Wulaw: 4 Prepuce: 0
March 20, 20214 yr Author Alright @HuckleberryI assume I went from highest EV around 2:00 yesterday afternoon to lowest. Break it down for us...
March 20, 20214 yr Yeah, daily update coming shortly. Ratings are taking forever to run probably because I added a database connection to directly scrape Massey's season scores so it's slowing down Excel. Should have the post up in the next 30 minutes or so, gotta run a quick errand.
March 20, 20214 yr Poster, Current Score, EV HornOnTheBayou, 36, 130.53 Huckleberry, 33, 92.62 joeycovers, 13, 60.76 BigOrange1, 11, 63.06 Jack Straw, 8, 59.10 shadow_operative, 5, 60.55 Wulaw Horn, 4, 63.78 Prepuce of Doom, 0, 52.91 Edited March 20, 20214 yr by Huckleberry
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