Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Featured Replies

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Tell me you’re a millennial without telling me you’re a millennial.

FFS I wish you stupid fucks would look at something that goes back more than 15 minutes.

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

  • Replies 8.1k
  • Views 496.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

  • PilotsError
    PilotsError

Posted Images

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Tell me you are in the top 20% of household incomes ($130k) without telling me your in the top 20% of household incomes. 

You underestimate my income… a lot. But my income has nothing to do with you calling the last couple of years “24 consecutive months of record inflation.”  I guess we’re going to pretend the late 70’s early 80’s didn’t happen. 

10 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You underestimate my income… a lot.

Settle down, Rocko

Yawn

I mean, he has a point.  Late 1970s says "hold my beer".  WWII scoffs.

image.thumb.png.7a1475b4d9fc8d2f06af12fb6f5cba9b.png

15 hours ago, Hal Finney said:

Settle down, Rocko

Yawn

Awwww, is our little crypto scammer upset?  Yeah, fuck off. 

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Yeah guys, just look at this fucking weirdo anti-Fed website I found. The government is lying to you. Wake up sheeple. 

Interestingly enough, their "1980-based" chart doesn't start at 1980.  Hmmm.  I wonder what they're hiding?

image.png.8d6d220af05ead3e47d6250680d8440f.png

On 9/1/2023 at 9:02 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

90, 92, and 2016. 

So, if I recall correctly, tuition for 90 and 92 was less than about $1000/year (>$3000 for the professional graduate degree), which makes the ROI calculation a lot less critical.  Like, non-critical.

By 2016, presumably, you are about 40 something and making an informed cost-benefit decision on the ROI of the tuition, which has increased about 20x.

Yes, it is true that people make lousy cost-benefit decisions on education, particularly when they can't do it on a cash basis or nearly so.  But, like home ownership, the "incentives" to do it can overwhelm good decision-making.

On 12/23/2023 at 10:59 PM, Gatorubet said:

I believe his point was talking about historical inflation. I have a friend who bought his first house for 15 1/2% interest. The interest rate was 13% when I bought my first house. We have been living in a low interest bubble for quite some time. While that is great, it is absolutely not the norm in our country forever.   Somewhere, I have an old WIN button from the Jimmy Carter era, which signifies Whip Inflation Now.   I recall at the time some utility companies had 19% bonds you could lock into.   

I’m not saying that the increase in inflation is a good thing, but people bitching about 6 or 7 or 8% do indeed have a limited worldview because of their age.  This obviously does not affect people who are suffering right now.

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I agree with all of this. 

However, I keep having the thought that the current Federal debt at historically average rates is a catastrophe.  It would probably be best if we(the royal we) had the fortitude to deal with it and the austerity it will cause.  I don't think we do.

1 hour ago, G650 said:

 

The wild part is I had god knows how many conversations over the past 10 years that this bizarre no interest rate environment has to end at some point. It lasted waaaay longer than I had ever dreamed it would. I remember my first mortgage was 6.75%, and it was a killer deal.

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

19 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Seriously, answer where you find these links.

Gold bug community

4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm locked in on mine from 2010 at 3.875%.  Pretty much resigned to the fact that I'll never get that deal again.

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

On 12/24/2023 at 8:57 PM, bernorange said:

It's not apples to apples to compare CPI over long stretches of time because the calculation criteria changes.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Ahh, good ol ' Shadowstats. The website that cranks and hacks trot out every so often to show that the "real" unemployment rate is actually 25% or something (usually referenced when there's a Democrat in office).

They get their "data" by literally just making shit up. They take the official reported numbers for CPI, GDP, jobs...etc. and then just tack on or subtract a large percentage they've made up (whichever makes the number look worse) and say "these are what the numbers should be if calculated the right way before they started started fudging the numbers in (insert a year during the Clinton administration)."

I added the missing data in their graph:

image.png.a9251e2a04dc282a9acb7c1ff7d17ccc.png

Pepsi and 7up canned from supermarket shelves over ‘unacceptable’ price rises

A supermarket chain has said it will no longer sell Pepsi and 7up in protest against “unacceptable” price rises.French retail giant Carrefour said it plans to ditch PepsiCo products after repeated price increases despite the cost of living crisis.

Shelves once stocked with PepsiCo drinks will be now accompanied by a note that reads: “We are no longer selling this brand due to unacceptable price increases.” The grocery giant, which has more than 12,000 stores worldwide, said the signs will only appear in France.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pepsi-7up-canned-supermarket-shelves-125033648.html

I point this out because Pepsi is own by PepsiCo, which also owns the Doritos brand. I mentioned a bit ago how the price of those chips has gone up 80% since inflation hit and I didn't buy it for a second that the cost of producing and getting them to store shelves had risen 80%. Looks like I'm not the only one.

On 12/26/2023 at 4:34 PM, fattyflattie said:

2.625 here and feels like I really fucked up not leveling up a few levels at the time.  Oh, well. Maybe next time we get decades of free money I’ll remember that lesson.   

Yeah, I took my 4% 30 year to a 2.75% 15 year.  Only paying about $200 more/month but LOVE seeing that principal shed away each month.

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Today I learned 5/12=50%

GODDAMNIT, I AM GOING TO TYPE IN ALL CAPS SO "YOU PEOPLE" UNDERSTAND. BLUE COLLAR WORKERS HAVE FASTER GROWING WAGES THE LAST 3 YEARS THAN WHITE COLLAR WORKERS.

2 hours ago, BeardIP said:

Are we back to the market taking good news as bad news again?

Yes, but a poor ISM report got the market back on the hopium train.

Joe Biden’s supermarket sweep the first week of January was fun. Also, AZ is just bipolar

 

 

IMG_0236.jpeg

Edited by StassneyHorn

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

zerohedge.com. Same thing.

What does the phrase "zero hedge" mean, anyway?  A zero cost hedge?  No such thing exists, right?  Insurance costs money.  Buy a long call, it'll cost you.  Buy a put to hedge your long stock, it'll cost you.  Buy homeowner's insurance, it'll cost you.

zero hedge means "all in"
You aren't hedging your bets.
You talk like you know everything. Like some shitty commodities trader.

4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

zero hedge means "all in"
You aren't hedging your bets.
You talk like you know everything. Like some shitty commodities trader.

Ah.  OK, it's NO hedge.  Thanks.

On 1/5/2024 at 10:39 AM, Captainant said:

Wage growth is a fun number to toss in because it includes the top flight that are taking the lions share of wage growth by dollar. Sure, you can say "hourly workers got a 50% pay bump!" But going from $12 to $17 an hour ain't gonna pull anyone out of desperation and poverty

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Let's not attack good news because it's not perfect. Wage growth has been better for 75% of workers. 

image.thumb.png.fda632eb94de5e5a328017a25f9acf9d.png

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

Edited by Captainant

20 hours ago, Captainant said:

75th percentile means that it's higher than 75% of wages. The top 25% has the highest wage growth according to this chart, and the group that makes more than 25% of the population (the bottom 25%) saw their wages fall. 

 

Also, the average is above the median which is another indicator of top-heavy distribution 

This isn't a shot or anything, because you obviously do get it, but your reference to median vs mean here is timely given that I've been watching in fascination the last day or so as a mainstream liberal econ guy has been attempting to explain the difference between median and mean to far-left Bernie bros on Twitter. A seemingly Sisyphean task if you dig through his feed the last few days.

Although, once in a while, he manages to break through.

 

I presume a large share of those $8.5B of “profits” are unrealized capital gains?

On 8/31/2023 at 9:26 AM, bernorange said:

Apologies for the necro bump, but I've seen this statistic pop up in recent days, and I remember it being referenced in this thread. 

The number seems shockingly high b/c it's not realistic, given "paycheck to paycheck", in this context, is thrown around very gratuitously.  When you see something that says nearly 2/3 of people making over $100K live "paycheck to paycheck" your bullshit meter should go off. Also, your bullshit meter should go off when the solitary source that gets quoted for this statistic is a "report" put out by a personal loan company.

"Paycheck to paycheck" means if you miss a paycheck, you're in deep shit. You can't make rent, your car gets repo'd, you have to take out a usurious loan or borrow from family...etc.

It doesn't mean "I would have to dig into my savings/carry a credit card balance for a bit" or "I make a lot of money, but I spend like a drunken sailor and don't save or invest."

 

 

7 hours ago, Parliament said:

I presume a large share of those $8.5B of “profits” are unrealized capital gains?

Trillion…

When grocery prices goes up, its gouging. 

When housing prices goes up, its supply. 

Cant this lady stay with 1 script?
 

 

Deficit spending keeping the "booming" economy going.

 

Also interest expense now outpacing military spending just when hot conflicts spreading around globe. 

I have to admit i don't know the ins and outs of how RRP relates to QT, but if QT is ending that opens to door to reverse policy to some good old fashioned QE.

 

 

1 hour ago, Hal Finney said:

... if QT is ending ...

From Saturday:

Quote

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank may need to slow down the pace at which it shrinks its portfolio of assets amid scarcer liquidity in financial markets.

While liquidity and bank reserves in the financial system are still more than ample, she said, individual banks could start to see liquidity constraints, especially as balances in the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase facility fall. Logan said it’s now “appropriate” to begin discussing the parameters around a Fed decision to slow the pace of its balance-sheet runoff.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/logan-says-fed-should-slow-asset-runoff-as-reverse-repo-dwindles

 

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lulz noCR tho amirite?

No shit, Surly 101.  "No left wing politics, everything else, cool cool".

Fucking hypocrites.  Lather, rinse, repeat.

New policy of mine:  I'm negging every political post I see on this board, either side.

7 hours ago, Hal Finney said:

No she can't. She is the worst.

Econ 101. She's concerned about supply, huh. What about demand?

She's happily endorsed policies that have artificially inflated demand by millions of "units" the last few years.

 

Never mind the politics of this post we don’t have enough housing. The biggest input to the demand side was the combination of 

1) Low rates (monetary stimulus by the Fed to encourage investment ahead of savings)

2) The 2001, 2003, and 2017 Tax cuts (Fiscal stimulus expressly designed to protect/inflate asset values) 

3) Millennials entering the workforce 

And 

4) The 2007-2010 financial crisis

Elizabeth Warren sure as shit hasn’t endorsed #2, so I’m not sure Elizabeth Warren has to do with the other 3.

but either way, local exclusionary zoning and bad planning standards prevented the infill boom that should have happened in response to the above. We need more housing.

IOW Go get your shinebox and take it to the CR.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.