Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Featured Replies

58 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

“It would affect people with $1 billion in assets or those who have reported at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to news reports. That would ensnare perhaps 700 taxpayers — or the wealthiest 0.0002 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/dealbook/democrats-capital-gains-tax.html

Great.  So I'm screwed.  

  • Replies 8.1k
  • Views 496.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

  • PilotsError
    PilotsError

Posted Images

15 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

How did you connect Janet Yellen explaining a unrealized capital gains tax bill proposed by members of Congress to the reason it was proposed was to curb inflation?

They want to spend money on infrastructure. They also want to pay for the expenditures. Their proposal is tax the ultra rich. Seems pretty straight forward. 

You think Congress draws up tax provisions in legislation without Treasury input? 
 

I just thought it was a interesting coincidence given that the government is all MMTers now. 
 

6 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

choose your fighter.  Larry coming out with a thread

 

 

 

Summers is obviously a heavyweight whose opinion is valued highly by the establishment. Also, IIRc he has been on the right side of the argument for years as inflation has been muted. So this is noteworthy.

 

 

 

Edited by Satoshi

51 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Didn't income tax say the same thing until it didn't just hit the wealthiest?

Yep. Gotta start somewhere. 

Fuck Larry Summers.

14 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Fuck Larry Summers.

Total scumbag. Great friend of Epstein. 
 

But at the same time one of the most connected men in the world of finance. Take that for what it’s worth. 

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The world of finance is full of pedophiles?

There are people at the top of the pyramid that make decisions that affect every one of our lives, that are morally bankrupt. 
 

This one’s for Jimmy. 

 

Global economic data but interesting data point 

 

Quote

global manufactures trade stalling, possible global industrial contraction ahead

Chicken and egg. Manufacturing is stalling due to supply chain issues. Supply chain issues are a result of manufacturing stalling.

Home prices at ATH. Up 18.7% yoy. 
 

The Fed and govt response 

5-B466883-61-C6-47-BB-A6-F7-B5-EC9331-F0

 

 

13 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

“It would affect people with $1 billion in assets or those who have reported at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to news reports. That would ensnare perhaps 700 taxpayers — or the wealthiest 0.0002 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/dealbook/democrats-capital-gains-tax.html

So what you're saying is it is tailored so that it doesn't affect any former presidents?

14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

“It would affect people with $1 billion in assets or those who have reported at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to news reports. That would ensnare perhaps 700 taxpayers — or the wealthiest 0.0002 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/dealbook/democrats-capital-gains-tax.html

 

Paywall

can you copy paste this?  

14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

“It would affect people with $1 billion in assets or those who have reported at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to news reports. That would ensnare perhaps 700 taxpayers — or the wealthiest 0.0002 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/dealbook/democrats-capital-gains-tax.html

Wait til they have to start selling their stock to pay for the taxes.  Gonna do a real number to index funds when 70% of your S&P 500 fund growth the past few years is in 6 stocks that are gonna get dumped to pay unrealized gains taxes of 700 people.  

Good buying opportunity at a lower cost basis for those stocks

Just now, swraith said:

Good buying opportunity at a lower cost basis for those stocks

Perhaps, but it could create a downward super-cycle as well so long as those policies would be in place 

10 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

The world of finance is full of pedophiles?

Don't know what you do for work but the world of finance (real finance, not a local commercial banker) happens to be filled with a lot of fucking scumbags.  

4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Don't know what you do for work but the world of finance (real finance, not a local commercial banker) happens to be filled with a lot of fucking scumbags.  

Americanpsycho Keysersoze GIF - Americanpsycho Keysersoze Pointing -  Discover & Share GIFs

Edited by jimmyjazz

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Americanpsycho Keysersoze GIF - Americanpsycho Keysersoze Pointing -  Discover & Share GIFs

If I knew you in person I'd buy you a beer and tell you a story from last week that would blow your fkn mind.

Just now, babysdaddy said:

If I knew you in person I'd buy you a beer and tell you a story from last week that would blow your fkn mind.

New business concept:  VenBeer

Essentially, Drizzly + Zoom

Cathie Wood (intelligent crypto-bull) understands the deflationary headwinds in the economy:

In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off," Wood tweeted in response on Monday. "I was wrong. Instead, velocity - the rate at which money turns over per year - declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling."

In a lengthy Twitter thread, she argues that the price increases impacting consumers should wind down after the holiday season due to three sources of deflation.

Spoiler

According to Wood, the first source [of deflation] is "technologically enabled innovation" such as artificial intelligence. She notes that AI training costs are dropping 40% to 70% at an annual rate, which she called "a record-breaking deflationary force."

"When costs and prices decline, velocity and disinflation - if not deflation - follow," she added. "If consumers and businesses believe that prices will fall in the future, they will wait to buy buy goods and services, pushing the velocity of money down."

The second source, Wood says, is "creative destruction" as a result of disruptive innovation.

"Since the tech and telecom bust and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, many companies have catered to short-term oriented shareholders who want profits/dividends now," she explains. "They leveraged their balance sheets to pay dividends and buy back shares, ‘manufacturing’ earnings per share. They have not invested enough in innovation and probably will be forced to service their debts by selling increasingly obsolete goods at discounts: deflation."

The final source Wood cites is the over-ordering and stockpiling of goods that have occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain bottlenecks.

"Because businesses shut down and were caught flat-footed as goods consumption took off during the coronavirus crisis, they still are scrambling to catch up, probably double- and triple-ordering beyond their needs," she says. "As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind."

She emphasizes that commodity prices such as lumber and iron ore have already dropped 50% and that the price of oil is  "an outlier and psychologically important."

Wood points out that global demand for oil is below 2019 levels and "unlikely to return to its old high, partly because its price has broken a string of lower highs and is above the $77 hit in 2018, therefore destroying demand."

"On the supply side, ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates have forced energy companies to shift capital spending from mature fossil fuels to nascent renewables. Meanwhile, banks have deprived fracking companies of funding after their near-death experience in 2020," she concludes. "In response to the near quadrupling of oil prices since the low last year, electric vehicle adoption has accelerated, sowing the seeds of a serious oil price decline longer term."

Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to Wood's thread, writing "I don’t know about long-term, but short-term we are seeing strong inflationary pressure." Though Dorsey didn't issue a formal reply, he retweeted Musk's tweet.

Wood responded to Musk's tweet with a separate thread, writing that, while she is open to dialogue, she believes "the powerful and converging deflationary forces associated with AI, energy storage (EVs!), robotics, genomic sequencing, and blockchain technology will bend the curve."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/cathie-wood-elon-musk-weigh-in-on-jack-dorsey-hyperinflation-tweet/ar-AAPZ5i6

The economy is running too hot!  The economy is running too cold!

 

As long as we stay with a decent number of people on both sides I'm buying Jamie Diamond's goldilocks quote which is aging quite well at this point.  I've been a maniac about finding every shekel I could get to invest.  I tapped into everything including lines about 8 months ago.  I won't pull out now but I really don't have much else to throw at this fire.  But I'm a crackhead with UPRO etc maxed the fuck out.  I guess the plus side is even a 25% pullback leaves most of us in the green after the run we've had.  The bad news is I won't have anymore firewood on that massive pullback.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc

29 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The final source Wood cites is the over-ordering and stockpiling of goods that have occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain bottlenecks.

This one will take the tide out and we are all gonna see who is swimming naked.

Yeah, outside of a few people hording TP, businesses aren't "over-ordering" and "stockpiling". We are ordering more than usual, but that's because it takes us 3 months to get us what usually took 3 weeks. 

36 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So...stagflation?

Snap GDP numbers from the Atlanta Fed look like shit:

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif?h=360&w=65

Nasty set-up for a financial sector addicted to $120 billion a month welfare payment from the Fed and negative interest rates.

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So...stagflation?

 

stagflation = stagnation + inflation.  by all accounts we have a growing economy even factoring in the reopening bounce. 

 

24 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Snap GDP numbers from the Atlanta Fed look like shit:

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif?h=360&w=65

Nasty set-up for a financial sector addicted to $120 billion a month welfare payment from the Fed and negative interest rates.

we'll see, they've been well off since last year (understandably).  

52 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

we'll see, they've been well off since last year (understandably).  

Yeah, a forward-looking projection (duh) based solely on past data is incapable of factoring in extraordinary circumstances.  We're kinda in the middle of extraordinary circumstances.

6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, a forward-looking projection (duh) based solely on past data is incapable of factoring in extraordinary circumstances.  We're kinda in the middle of extraordinary circumstances.

God I hope not. How about final turn, home stretch, or even the last lap?  

17 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Snap GDP numbers from the Atlanta Fed look like shit:

gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif?h=360&w=65

Nasty set-up for a financial sector addicted to $120 billion a month welfare payment from the Fed and negative interest rates.

 

FWIW, everyone needs to throw Q over Q comparisons out the window. 2020 was a black swan and any comparisons are going to be shit.

18 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, outside of a few people hording TP, businesses aren't "over-ordering" and "stockpiling". We are ordering more than usual, but that's because it takes us 3 months to get us what usually took 3 weeks. 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/10/stop-shopping-global-supply-chain-shipping-delays/620465/

"Worried About the Supply Chain? Stop Shopping."

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

FWIW, everyone needs to throw Q over Q comparisons out the window. 2020 was a black swan and any comparisons are going to be shit.

Now you've done it...

1 minute ago, DonkeyCigars said:

"Worried About the Supply Chain? Stop Shopping."

Worried about high cost of gas? Don't drive anywhere.

It's really simple!

43 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Worried about high cost of gas? Don't drive anywhere.

It's really simple!

 

I just refinanced my house 2 mos ago. I knew rates won't ever be this low again. I still remember my dad talking about his 16% interest rate on our 1st house as a kid. The rate hikes are coming. Also, took out a loan against my life insurance for my business. BTW thats a financial hack I wish I knew about before.

On 10/25/2021 at 9:28 PM, StassneyHorn said:

“It would affect people with $1 billion in assets or those who have reported at least $100 million in income for three consecutive years, according to news reports. That would ensnare perhaps 700 taxpayers — or the wealthiest 0.0002 percent”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/business/dealbook/democrats-capital-gains-tax.html

No. Fuck no. Don’t allow this bullshit under any circumstance. You know what happens once they successfully do it to the ultra rich. Not interested.

6 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

No, what happens?

Figure it out, dipshit. Not to mention that taxing unrealized gains in general is one of the worst ideas ever.

1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

Figure it out, dipshit. Not to mention that taxing unrealized gains in general is one of the worst ideas ever.

No, show us instead of speaking in platitudes. It affects 700 people. They are not powerless minorities.

I think the concern is that it doesn’t just stay with the Uber wealthy, just like income tax didn’t stay temporary. Give them an inch and they’ll quickly take miles and miles.

Taxing unrealized gains also seems weird because what if those values decline and the un realized gain decreases? Does the tax payer get a refund?

47 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

No, show us instead of speaking in platitudes. It affects 700 people. They are not powerless minorities.

If your best argument in support of this idea is “it doesn’t effect you (currently)” it’s probably a really, really shitty idea. 

47 minutes ago, tbone_ said:



Taxing unrealized gains also seems weird because what if those values decline and the un realized gain decreases? Does the tax payer get a refund?

Lol no

29 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

If your best argument in support of this idea is “it doesn’t effect you (currently)” it’s probably a really, really shitty idea. 

If you can’t show examples to support your slippery slope argument,you're probably just giving a really, really shitty ideaological hot take that won’t AFFECT you. Ever. 

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

If you can’t show examples to support your slippery slope argument,you're probably just giving a really, really shitty ideaological hot take that won’t AFFECT you. Ever. 

The initial 1913 income tax was 1% on the highest earners. Just the tip. Next. 
 

 

33 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

The initial 1913 income tax was 1% on the highest earners. Just the tip. Next. 
 

 

Solid analysis.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.