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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

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  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

  • PilotsError
    PilotsError

Posted Images

15 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They’ve correctly predicted 25 of the last 2 recessions. 

At this point so has pretty much everyone else.  

lol yea everyone was doing that

 

55 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Isn't there a poster on here who earnestly posts ZH stuff?

@bernorange

Edited by StassneyHorn

3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

lol yea everyone was doing that

were you conscious in Jan 2023?

If only there was a thread on the topic that went long enough back to Jan 2023, or even before that, where we could search what people were saying these things.

15 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

If only there was a thread on the topic that went long enough back to Jan 2023, or even before that, where we could search what people were saying these things.

whats your point?

19 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Surprised he wasn't on speaker phone or facetiming.  Every one of those bag of dicks need a beating.

What do you think this is, the bread aisle at HEB??  

1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

They’ve correctly predicted 25 of the last 2 recessions. 

image.png.ed7073f1bff1e2d59314010ac0c488ad.png

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

Not sure yall are getting my crack at them. 

I got it.  I was illustrating it.

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

 

Not sure yall are getting my crack at them. 

Oh, I am.  They(ZH) have been up their own ass forever.

My point is pretty much everyone said '23 would be a recession.  It wasn't...  some said it would happen in '24... it hasn't.  

 

Frankly I am absolutely stunned that 7plus % mortgages and 10 plus % auto loans haven't turbo fucked enough people to cause a recession.  IMPO profligate deficit government spending is what has kept economic numbers positive.   Is that good, or bad...we'll see.

12 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Oh, I am.  They(ZH) have been up their own ass forever.

My point is pretty much everyone said '23 would be a recession.  It wasn't...  some said it would happen in '24... it hasn't.  

 

Frankly I am absolutely stunned that 7plus % mortgages and 10 plus % auto loans haven't turbo fucked enough people to cause a recession.  IMPO profligate deficit government spending is what has kept economic numbers positive.   Is that good, or bad...we'll see.

Can.  Road.  Kicked

Oh, I am.  They(ZH) have been up their own ass forever.
My point is pretty much everyone said '23 would be a recession.  It wasn't...  some said it would happen in '24... it hasn't.  
 
Frankly I am absolutely stunned that 7plus % mortgages and 10 plus % auto loans haven't turbo fucked enough people to cause a recession.  IMPO profligate deficit government spending is what has kept economic numbers positive.   Is that good, or bad...we'll see.

Username

Let's all not forget that ZH is owned by a former member of the Soviet-aligned Bulgarian Communist Party. He also runs a similar website in Bulgaria that frequently pushes conspiracy theories, anti-semitism, anti-LGBT, pro-Russia/anti-Ukrainian crap. Sound familiar? 

"Tyler Durden" is essentially his son, who is the primary editor of the site, which is pretty much his full time job, because he got barred by FINRA for insider trading and lost his career in investment banking.

Core PCE 2.7% YOY, running at 2.1% over last 3 months. 

Headline PCE is down to 2.2% YOY.

Edited by Storm the Field

27 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Core PCE 2.7% YOY, running at 2.1% over last 3 months. 

Headline PCE is down to 2.2% YOY.

Sure looking like inflation got beat back down. 

The rate of growth has come down.  There has not been a compensatory deflation to undo the massive inflation that we have already experienced.

31 minutes ago, bernorange said:

The rate of growth has come down.  There has not been a compensatory deflation to undo the massive inflation that we have already experienced.

94w89v.jpg

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

The rate of growth has come down.  There has not been a compensatory deflation to undo the massive inflation that we have already experienced.

Were you expecting (or even desiring) a deflationary environment?

On 9/26/2024 at 11:42 AM, Incredulity said:

Frankly I am absolutely stunned that 7plus % mortgages and 10 plus % auto loans haven't turbo fucked enough people to cause a recession.

Why?

13 minutes ago, G650 said:

Why?

Because the monthly payment on a $500 K 30 year mortgage at 3% is $2108

The monthly payment on a $500k 30 year mortgage at 7% is $3,326.51

 

What do you want to throw on there for taxes, maintenance and insurance/month?  $1500 sound reasonable?

 

That takes the 28% of gross housing cost "rule" from 90K income to 200K income.  

I would have speculated a change of that magnitude would have literally stopped home sales, at least in the lower and middle.  I know the song and dance has been buy now, eat the financing cost short term and refinance later.  Looks like that MAY work out given the Sept cut. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

Yeah no kidding. This would be disastrous. 

Rates reset slowly for existing ARMs. Most smart people had fixed anyway from low ‘21 rates. I have a jumbo at 2.875%. I told my wife a few years ago we weren’t gonna move, probably ever. 

I'm referencing the buying and selling.  Brokers, realtors, contractors of all types...

19 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Because the monthly payment on a $500 K 30 year mortgage at 3% is $2108

The monthly payment on a $500k 30 year mortgage at 7% is $3,326.51

 

What do you want to throw on there for taxes, maintenance and insurance/month?  $1500 sound reasonable?

 

That takes the 28% of gross housing cost "rule" from 90K income to 200K income.  

I would have speculated a change of that magnitude would have literally stopped home sales, at least in the lower and middle.  I know the song and dance has been buy now, eat the financing cost short term and refinance later.  Looks like that MAY work out given the Sept cut. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's all great, but how does that equate to anyone being turbo fucked? It's a nonsensical statement on myriad levels.

 

I build neighborhoods btw, people have asked me for years, well before Covid, what rates would stop the housing market. My WAG had always been 9%, I'd probably  say 10 now, but regardless, until the supply and demand mismatch resolves, which i probably won't live to see, the housing market will keep on trucking.

 

The essentially free money of the last 15 years has warped so many people. We smack dab in the middle of historic interest rates. And dropping.

7 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Knowing rates will be coming down a lot further, I imagine transactions will be slim through the next 9-15 months, and then kinda explode. 

The first wave will be streamlines - specifically FHA and VA.  Non-credit qualifying, no cash-out transactions.  Many will have HE loans subordinated behind them if applicable.  

The next wave will be the "blended yield" crowd.  First is low, second is higher - so they take a blended rate in the 5's to have a single payment.  Maybe take a little more cash out, etc.  

FHFA is about to green light a FNMA pilot with a few early adopters on title premium waivers as well.  80% LTV, a few other black-box AUS requirements, and the loans have no title premiums, similar to a PIW in lieu of an appraisal.  That will hook a few more people as well.  

1 minute ago, G650 said:

but how does that equate to anyone being turbo fucked?

housing sales stop.....no income for mortgage guys, no income for realtors, title guys..... Cut your income in half for even six months is turbo fucked for the vast majority of Americans.

totally agree there is lag in low demand impacting trades/contractors and a housing shortage so obviously that's not as immediate as the financial end.     

 

4 minutes ago, G650 said:

The essentially free money of the last 15 years has warped so many people

totally agree.   

Just now, Incredulity said:

housing sales stop.

Yeah, that's one thing I'm getting at. On what planet is 7% interest rates going to stop the housing market? I wouldn't have postulated that even in 2018.

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

housing sales stop.....no income for mortgage guys, no income for realtors, title guys..... Cut your income in half for even six months is turbo fucked for the vast majority of Americans.

totally agree there is lag in low demand impacting trades/contractors and a housing shortage so obviously that's not as immediate as the financial end.     

 

totally agree.   

Can confirm. 

Just now, Incredulity said:

housing sales stop.....no income for mortgage guys, no income for realtors, title guys..... Cut your income in half for even six months is turbo fucked for the vast majority of Americans.

totally agree there is lag in low demand impacting trades/contractors and a housing shortage so obviously that's not as immediate as the financial end.     

 

totally agree.   

Shit ton of lenders have left the space - this much is true.  Especially on the individual broker, LO, RE agent side of the house.  That being said, the good ones are still around and lender have ramped back up on hiring biggly.  

This new premium waiver is going to impact low-margin, brick & mortar title companies as well, but not all of them.  Market's are changing, but with demand still high, it's not going anywhere soon.  

1 hour ago, G650 said:

On what planet is 7% interest rates going to stop the housing market? I wouldn't have postulated that even in 2018.

Avg home price went from approx $350K in 2018 to $550K in 2023, with the majority of that run up being '20 and '21.  Mortgage rate bottomed out early 21 being cut in half.

What caused the absurd house price appreciation in 20 and 21?

 

12 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Avg home price went from approx $350K in 2018 to $550K in 2023, with the majority of that run up being '20 and '21.  Mortgage rate bottomed out early 21 being cut in half.

What caused the absurd house price appreciation in 20 and 21?

 

Low interest rates, Covid, Covid stimulus, and a housing shortage. Is this a serious question?

1 hour ago, G650 said:

Yeah, that's one thing I'm getting at. On what planet is 7% interest rates going to stop the housing market? I wouldn't have postulated that even in 2018.

On a planet in desperate need of a real estate correction, the one market sector that struggled with historically normal interest rates. 
If the real estate market can’t function at 7%, it’s non-functional. 15 years of stimulus was way too much.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

29 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Is this a serious question?

rhetorical.

 

 

29 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

15 years of stimulus was way too much.

we all agree on this.  We are headed back there seemingly ASAP.   

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Avg home price went from approx $350K in 2018 to $550K in 2023, with the majority of that run up being '20 and '21.  Mortgage rate bottomed out early 21 being cut in half.

What caused the absurd house price appreciation in 20 and 21?

 

Ok... Still not remotely answering what I'm asking. How are 7% rates turbo fucking anyone?

 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


If the real estate market can’t function at 7%, it’s non-functional. 15 years of stimulus was way too much.

I agree.

7 minutes ago, G650 said:

How are 7% rates turbo fucking anyone?

My post was I’m surprised they haven’t turbo fucked enough people, not that they have.  

 

 

On 9/26/2024 at 5:59 PM, Storm the Field said:

Let's all not forget that ZH is owned by a former member of the Soviet-aligned Bulgarian Communist Party. He also runs a similar website in Bulgaria that frequently pushes conspiracy theories, anti-semitism, anti-LGBT, pro-Russia/anti-Ukrainian crap. Sound familiar? 

"Tyler Durden" is essentially his son, who is the primary editor of the site, which is pretty much his full time job, because he got barred by FINRA for insider trading and lost his career in investment banking.

ZH is his/their full time job. It get insane traffic, im confident it outearns any career in banking below MD. 

Like a newspaper, it has a news side and an opinions side. The opinions side is very obviously anti-establishment for politics and doomer/bearish for finance.

The news side is basically just a squawk service (aka a newsfeed) for market events, and basically everybody uses their social media as a sounding box. Their account is followed by the entire bloomberg team, dan loeb, cliff asness, kyle bass, taleb, any active money manager on social media …

4 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

80% LTV, a few other black-box AUS requirements, and the loans have no title premiums, similar to a PIW in lieu of an appraisal

That would be awesome but good luck getting a PIW right now.  Fannie and Freddie tightened eligibility requirements for automated underwriting software and I mostly can’t get borrowers to meet them, even with 30%-40% equity in purchase made 12 months ago.  

19 hours ago, G650 said:

Yeah, that's one thing I'm getting at. On what planet is 7% interest rates going to stop the housing market? 

Earth? Its relatively stopped, dawg

US_Existing_Home_Sales.png

Just now, B00M said:

Earth? Its relatively stopped, dawg

US_Existing_Home_Sales.png

IMO, it's less the interest rates and more that builders more or less stopped after 2008 and haven't gotten anywhere close to the scale they used to build. Can't buy a house if there's not enough for sale to satisfy the rent seeking boomers getting their fourth rent house and new home buyers getting their first home

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

Earth? Its relatively stopped, dawg

US_Existing_Home_Sales.png

That's what that chart says to you? That's an existing homes chart btw.

New builds look relatively stable, perhaps that’s why it seems like @G650 lives on a different planet?

 

US_New_Home_Sales.png

Just now, B00M said:

New builds

 

 

Ie, the housing market.

4 minutes ago, G650 said:

Ie, the housing market.

Bored Blah Blah Blah GIF

A question for the diverse folks on this thread. It seems very obvious to me that the Covid brrrr machine/cash giveaway  initated by the Trump administration is heavily responsible for the inflation mess we’ve been dealing with. The Biden administration also did not initiate policies to deal with it more strongly. So given this, why aren’t economists and other experts placing blame on the Trump administration? Why aren’t they being fried for their inflationary policies? Trump supporters don’t acknowledge or realize this. 

35 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

A question for the diverse folks on this thread. It seems very obvious to me that the Covid brrrr machine/cash giveaway  initated by the Trump administration is heavily responsible for the inflation mess we’ve been dealing with. The Biden administration also did not initiate policies to deal with it more strongly. So given this, why aren’t economists and other experts placing blame on the Trump administration? Why aren’t they being fried for their inflationary policies? Trump supporters don’t acknowledge or realize this. 


First of all Biden gets more blame because he was actually President when inflation took hold


Also, government spending is a both sides issue, but there are some differences between the monetary stimulus passed during each administration.  


The Covid Cares Act was $2.2T in stimulus passed in March 2020 with nearly unanimous support in both houses of Congress. Essentially emergency legislation. 
 

The American Rescue Plan Act was $1.9T in stimulus passed in March 2021 along a strict party line vote. Discretionary stimulus. Make of that what you will. 
 

CPI report from March 2021. 
 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04132021.pdf

 

10 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

A question for the diverse folks on this thread. It seems very obvious to me that the Covid brrrr machine/cash giveaway  initated by the Trump administration is heavily responsible for the inflation mess we’ve been dealing with. The Biden administration also did not initiate policies to deal with it more strongly. So given this, why aren’t economists and other experts placing blame on the Trump administration? Why aren’t they being fried for their inflationary policies? Trump supporters don’t acknowledge or realize this. 

 

here's the govt spending by year.  trump's non-covid spending was flat vs GDP compared to obama.

the delta between 2020/2021 and 2019 is $2.2T -- the size of the CARES act approved 419-6 in the House and 96-0 in Senate. 

presiding in fed chair was first yellen, an obama apointee, and then powell who was also obama apointee, later reconfirmed by biden.

so if you wanna point out an anomaly, ask why is 2023 is high, and e2024 even higher?

image.thumb.png.40cddea9c660b9d1e8f9fe04c500d90c.png

 

 

Edited by 52-80

Are you seriously saying the fact that outlay as a % of GDP went down during the Biden administration is a problem?  WTF are you trying to say?  Please, educate me.

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

 

here's the govt spending by year.  trump's non-covid spending was flat vs GDP compared to obama.

the delta between 2020/2021 and 2019 is $2.2T -- the size of the CARES act approved 419-6 in the House and 96-0 in Senate. 

presiding in fed chair was first yellen, an obama apointee, and then powell who was also obama apointee, later reconfirmed by biden.

so if you wanna point out an anomaly, ask why is 2023 is high, and e2024 even higher?

image.thumb.png.40cddea9c660b9d1e8f9fe04c500d90c.png

 

 

Wow. Talk about squinting to make data match your preconceived beliefs. This post is incredible. No one, and I mean no one, is going to vote against a spending plan during Covid recommended by the administration, and the Republicans own the most over the top, outrageous spending plan in US history during Covid. A spending plan that was basically a massive cash giveaway.  

But then you top yourself by incorrectly looking at absolute spending instead of spending as a percentage of gdp. Your post is ridiculous. 

On 9/27/2024 at 3:26 PM, G650 said:

Ok... Still not remotely answering what I'm asking. How are 7% rates turbo fucking anyone?

Shit’s broke yo

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

 

here's the govt spending by year.  trump's non-covid spending was flat vs GDP compared to obama.

the delta between 2020/2021 and 2019 is $2.2T -- the size of the CARES act approved 419-6 in the House and 96-0 in Senate. 

presiding in fed chair was first yellen, an obama apointee, and then powell who was also obama apointee, later reconfirmed by biden.

so if you wanna point out an anomaly, ask why is 2023 is high, and e2024 even higher?

image.thumb.png.40cddea9c660b9d1e8f9fe04c500d90c.png

 

 

Give me a fucking break. Are you looking to Cloak Room an Econ thread? Step right up and let me guess your weight. 
Would you please describe what happens on your graph during the year 2019?

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Wow. Talk about squinting to make data match your preconceived beliefs. This post is incredible. No one, and I mean no one, is going to vote against a spending plan during Covid recommended by the administration, and the Republicans own the most over the top, outrageous spending plan in US history during Covid. A spending plan that was basically a massive cash giveaway.  

But then you top yourself by incorrectly looking at absolute spending instead of spending as a percentage of gdp. Your post is ridiculous. 

are you all drunk?

how do you claim republicans “own” a spending plan that received, literally, 99% consensus. by the way, i dont endorse the bill, feel free search to the thread for my criticizing the predictability of ppp getting scammed. 

how you do assume i incorrectly neglected gdp sizing when i intentionally put that in *my* graph and explicitly referred to both you fucking donk. 

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shit’s broke yo

Give me a fucking break. Are you looking to Cloak Room an Econ thread? Step right up and let me guess your weight. 
Would you please describe what happens on your graph during the year 2019?

 

Would you describe the question “why doesnt this political administration get blamed for inflation” as CR free econ?

I posted: here’s how 3 administrations spent; theres a gigantic spike in spending that all legislators affiliated with both admins agreed to. 

thats the entirety if the post. 

if you want to know what happened there, maybe you can find it in your CR? take your fucking break then report back. 
 

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