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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

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19 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Yes. Cereal costs 2 dollars there. Suck my dick.

No thanks? 

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  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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    PilotsError

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21 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

This is just the first page. I can show you 4 dollar pizzas and $2.50 9%alc  tall boys in a bit

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Cereal is serious business.

In an ominous poultry related moment for me at work, my turkey raising client was instructing an employee to cut into the 6 dead birds they had while on the phone with me 

2025 financial goals: get 3-5 more laying hens. 

Only pussies worry about the cost of eggs.  Just sit back and enjoy a cheap cup of coffee!

Wouldn't egg producers WANT a nice bird flu every 2 or 3 years? 

1 hour ago, UTGrad98 said:

Wouldn't egg producers WANT a nice bird flu every 2 or 3 years? 

When a barn is infected, all the hens need to be euthanized, barns sterilized (think powerwashers and clorox and such) then new chicks hatched and raised a few months. All while all the fixed costs remain.  The rise in egg prices doesn't come close to covering all that.

 

Well I'll take your bird flu, and raise you a potential pandemic like jump into the already reduced cattle population!

New bird flu variant found in Cows in Nevada

US herd is at 73 year low.  I could post a bunch of links about the fears of how a lack of good inter-agency communication could hinder stopping outbreaks from last year's scare in Texas.  I can't imagine the communication of agencies improved at the Fed level at this point, can you?  IF this new variant spreads even a little you could see some severe upwards price pressure on beef.  Which will encourage non-infected meat sources to edge their prices up as well. (if they think they can). Read about the small calf numbers in this link for greater clarity on the risk. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years

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I will be fascinated to month over month inflation numbers at the end of Feb and March.  Markets will shit a brick if that number moves upward.  And you know that coffee, sugar, eggs, cocoa and lumber all markedly up in the last month.  Not that there is not some good news downward, but to me a lot more news that could really being inflation back as a focus, especially if we have to start culling from the smallest US cattle herd in our lifetimes...

Of course if we run off enough labor, the smaller cattle herd won't do anything for cattle prices because you'll still have capacity constraints while beef prices take off. 

On 1/29/2025 at 10:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Dumb question amnesty requested:  so there's this huge (justifiable) uproar over the price of eggs.  "They" are telling us that it's because of bird flu.  OK.  So why hasn't the price of chicken risen a similar amount, at least in my experience?  Has bird flu hit the egg farms particularly hard?

Three reasons:

1) Laying hens and broilers (the chickens we eat) are two different populations and live in different conditions.

2) Broilers are younger and less susceptible to respiratory disease 

3) Related to both points above, broilers spend less time together and rotate through the system faster, which means they less time in contact with disease vectors.

 

On 1/29/2025 at 3:04 PM, Parliament said:

Cereal is serious business.

al gore internet GIF

CPI. Inflation up. Animal spirits pricing in tariffs raising prices. No reason for Fed to lower Fed Rate. 

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

CPI. Inflation up. Animal spirits pricing in tariffs raising prices. No reason for Fed to lower Fed Rate. 

Those damn jobs reports....

41 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

CPI. Inflation up. Animal spirits pricing in tariffs raising prices. No reason for Fed to lower Fed Rate. 

Yeah, I was saying Sunday to another investor that just constantly talking about tariffs can bring anticipatory price rises.  Either for additional profits sellers think are within reach. Or to ease prices up to cover future additional raw materials costs that would be impacted by the discussed trade. It was almost funny to see the political spin on CNBC by Rick Santoli and Joe Kerns dutifully saying it was silly to think any upwards creep could be anticipatory of stated Trump policies. And it was dishonest to do so.  When right before the number came out, Joe was debating was this a Biden number or a Trump number...   Then when it's bad... one of those options became an impossibility...

My regret is that instead of making my hedge in UVIX so large, I would have pulled the trigger on that March $560 Tesla put for $150 my finger hovered over. 

 

Inflation went up already? NO WAY

What is it called when an economy has high inflation and massive unemployment? 
 

Stagflation, if we are lucky enough to avoid a Depression.
 

Jesus take the wheel. 

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Inflation went up already? NO WAY

No Way Wow GIF

Inflation has monotonically increased for the last seven months.

The elements of the CPI that increased are not imported goods subject ot tariffs. The biggest was housing, which made up 30% of the CPI increase. The rest was health costs, food, used cars, and energy.

Spoiler

CPI Highlights:

  • The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in January, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the monthly all items increase. 

  • The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month, as the gasoline index increased 1.8 percent.

  • The index for food also increased in January, rising 0.4 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.5 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

  • The food at home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.9 percent over the month, as the index for eggs increased 15.2 percent. This was the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015 and it accounted for about two thirds of the total monthly food at home increase

  • The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent in January. The index for limited service meals rose 0.3 percent over the month and the index for full service meals rose 0.1 percent

  • The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 2.2 percent over the same period, while the index for other food at home rose 0.8 percent and the index for dairy and related products increased 1.2 percent

  • The energy index increased 1.1 percent in January. The gasoline index increased 1.8 percent over the month.

  • The index for natural gas rose 1.8 percent over the month while the index for electricity was unchanged in January

Core CPI Details:

  • Indexes that increased over the month include motor vehicle insurance, recreation, used cars and trucks, medical care, communication, and airline fares. The indexes for apparel, personal care, and household furnishings and operations were among the few major indexes that decreased in January.

  • The shelter index increased 0.4 percent over the month.

    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent in January, as did the index for rent.

    • The lodging away from home index increased 1.4 percent in January.

  • The medical care index increased 0.2 percent over the month. The index for prescription drugs increased 2.5 percent in January and the index for hospital services rose 0.9 percent over the month.

    • The physicians’ services index increased 0.1 percent in January.

  • The motor vehicle insurance index rose 2.0 percent in January.

  • The index for recreation rose 1.0 percent over the month and the index for used cars and trucks increased 2.2 percent.

  • Other indexes that increased in January include communication, airline fares, and education.

  • In contrast, the index for apparel fell 1.4 percent in January.

  • The indexes for personal care and household furnishings and operations also declined over the month. The new vehicles index was unchanged in January.

 

Edited by Thetexashammer

Been on long budget conf calls last few days with contractors and equity on two apartment construction deals we are about to close.

Anyone want to guess what domestic lumber suppliers are doing with lumber pricing?

Thanks a lot you dickhead orange cunt.

5 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Been on long budget conf calls last few days with contractors and equity on two apartment construction deals we are about to close.

Anyone want to guess what domestic lumber suppliers are doing with lumber pricing?

Thanks a lot you dickhead orange cunt.

Nowai.

6 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Inflation has monotonically increased for the last seven months.

By my count, four months.  (Bad screencap, that point I highlighted is Sep 2024.)

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Edited by jimmyjazz

Well at least we count on fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction to put downward pressure on the bond market.  Maybe that will offset the proven inflationary results of tariffs? 

 

 

 

Now clean that coffee you just spit out off the table!

 

This quote inspires a lot of confidence...

Quote

White House economist Kevin Hassett on Thursday wouldn’t say whether President Donald Trump’s impending reciprocal tariffs would hit consumers’ wallets.

Asked whether the Trump administration can ensure that prices wouldn’t rise, Hassett, Trump’s director of the White House National Economic Council, said he is “confident” there will be no “price effect” related to new tariffs.

“Prices move up, prices move down. That’s the way the world works, right?” Hassett said during an MSNBC interview.

This guy sounds like he might have read a book once. OK, maybe not, but I bet he could pick a book out of a lineup. 

21 minutes ago, Blotto said:

This quote inspires a lot of confidence...

This guy sounds like he might have read a book once. OK, maybe not, but I bet he could pick a book out of a lineup. 

Tide goes in, tide goes out. You can't explain that.

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

To be fair, inflation has been going back up since the FED announced the first rate cut.  

Construction bids for heavy civil have been pretty stable for about 18 months since the crazy hikes in 2022.  Just been looking at pricing and it’s about to get interesting again.  Main difference is a lot of GCs seem to be short of work right now.  Not quite the backlog everyone had before.

We continue to run 8-10% lower on beef packing runs vs. the prior year last week. Seasonal demand weakness is offsetting on boxed beef for now, but we could see it get real stupid as spring demand picks up.  

51 minutes ago, The Dog said:

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no woman, no cry. Messenger, no shoot.

On 2/12/2025 at 9:22 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Those sweet egg prices sure are dropping!

 

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On 2/13/2025 at 2:09 PM, Captainant said:

Tide goes in, tide goes out. You can't explain that.

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2025 financial goals achieved.  

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On 1/29/2025 at 10:28 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Dumb question amnesty requested:  so there's this huge (justifiable) uproar over the price of eggs.  "They" are telling us that it's because of bird flu.  OK.  So why hasn't the price of chicken risen a similar amount, at least in my experience?  Has bird flu hit the egg farms particularly hard?

 

NPR had a story on this a few weeks ago. Their explanation, as best as I can recall, was basically: 

 

On 2/11/2025 at 7:24 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Three reasons:

1) Laying hens and broilers (the chickens we eat) are two different populations and live in different conditions.

2) Broilers are younger and less susceptible to respiratory disease 

3) Related to both points above, broilers spend less time together and rotate through the system faster, which means they less time in contact with disease vectors.

 

 

Also, since broilers are younger, they are replaced faster. 

 

Opening a bunch of bids Thursday that contractors are whining about steel tariffs on.  Let’s see if it’s real or not.  If real, we’re about to see things really escalate.

16 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Opening a bunch of bids Thursday that contractors are whining about steel tariffs on.  Let’s see if it’s real or not.  If real, we’re about to see things really escalate.

I would be curious to know the numbers and how they fell in line with your expectations.  I honestly do not know how you could bid something really large with steel as a contract component that might span over several years.  I assume most of the bids have differing types of cost escalation clauses?

 

On 2/13/2025 at 2:10 PM, Js1 said:

So let me get this straight -

Egg prices have gone up, not down

Inflation has gone up, not down

Gas prices have gone up, not down

We are going to cut millions of federal jobs and companies continue to have layoffs or outsource, so millions out of work

Mass deportations and tariffs are going to affect food prices, construction prices, etc.

 

Are we great again?

are you a wealthy white man?

 

 

,

Edited by yoladu

Oof!

Quote

The U.S. economy is in a potentially precarious position, having become "unusually reliant on rich Americans," The Wall Street Journal reports. As working- and middle-class households struggle to keep up with inflation, spending by the top 10% of earners has soared to account for almost 50% of all spending and nearly one-third of gross domestic product. Experts worry that if stock or home values decline and the wealthy cut back, the economic impacts could be "significant."

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

"If line no go up, mongo lose his shirt"

Yea it’s a dangerous place to be in. I think partly to blame is the lack of honesty about the “Heater” economy that was pumped by folks who were looking to spin the economy/inflation for Biden, when talking about jobs and labor market and job growth (not saying that was you).

When the majority of the growth (80%) is in garbage jobs like low pay service jobs at holiday inns and McDonald’s of the world and (20%) a handful of speculative and bubble companies, you get situations like yesterday where depending on how nvidia’s Q4 went, either the market will completely tank or will be okay. Thats a dangerous position to be in!

The lack of the white and blue collar jobs that the middle class historically depended upon is dangerous. They are endangered. And so the billionaires have outsized influence (and the digital labor revolution, if it comes, will be the death knell).

Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

 

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