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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

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1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Why?  That has nothing to do with whether inflation climbed and then dropped.   Nobody said we would enter deflation.

Because now you're moving the goalposts again.  

 

"It's temporary/transitory! Trust me"

 

3 years later

 

"Maybe it's just prolonged but at least it's coming down a bit!!"

 

"Higher prices don't matter!!! We're not in deflation!" 

 

 

C'mon man.  

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Because now you're moving the goalposts again.  

"It's temporary/transitory! Trust me"

3 years later

"Maybe it's just prolonged but at least it's coming down a bit!!"

"Higher prices don't matter!!! We're not in deflation!" 

C'mon man.  

What the fuck are you babbling about?  I certainly never predicted price spikes would recede.  I spoke about inflation, and if you think I don't know the definition, think again.  Talk about moving the goalposts.

People don’t understand the difference between rate of change of prices and high prices. News at [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]].

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Now do the compounding effect of years worth of elevated inflation on prices of goods.  

 

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Because now you're moving the goalposts again.  

 

"It's temporary/transitory! Trust me"

 

3 years later

 

"Maybe it's just prolonged but at least it's coming down a bit!!"

 

"Higher prices don't matter!!! We're not in deflation!" 

 

 

C'mon man.  

C’man yourself. The most predictable and widely predicted inflation spike in the history of the developed world, which demonstrated the behavior widely predicted at the inception of the spike- rising and falling in an inverted V shape. In other words, it was transitory. So you are mad at … who? And why? And about what?

 I feel like this was pretty well covered back in 2023, and the shame of it is that you probably know better, but if you really want to do this, go right ahead. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

What the fuck are you babbling about? 

He’s taking a political position, this isn’t about the monetary phenomenon of inflation or the consumer price experience people call inflation. 

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He’s taking a political position, this isn’t about the monetary phenomenon of inflation or the consumer price experience people call inflation. 

I can't decide which is more depressing:  the fact that some people don't understand what inflation is, or the fact that others know what it is but pretend that they don't.

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Beyond that, what is the definition of "transitory"?  5 year chart of annual inflation in the US:

image.png.46614cbbf17d9393d809e5d5dba84b57.png

You should’ve shown the same chart over a longer time period to better illustrate the transience 

9 minutes ago, B00M said:

You should’ve shown the same chart over a longer time period to better illustrate the transience 

I'd need a subscription to go out past 10 years, so this is the best I can do:

image.png.298a7f292e14c8e007576b090263a99e.png

29 minutes ago, B00M said:

You should’ve shown the same chart over a longer time period to better illustrate the transience

image.png.ff1d78b81bb9b8fc32a1545d751c7f0e.png

And?

There is no “and.” Not to him.

Also…don’t you be so mean as to put the US inflation chart against inflation rates that other nations experienced at the same time. That really ruins the “Biden caused our inflation!” narrative. And it REALLY pisses them off when you show them that the US actually performed BETTER than most every western economy, inflation-wise.
Nope. Inflation was caused by Biden, and Trump saved us. Don’t you get it, libtard?

Policy and spending. 
 

Inflation reduction act and Infrastructure act increasing the annual deficit to $1.8 Trillion annually 
 

Increasing the size of government 

The 14.6 million net jobs added during the first three years of the Biden Administration is the largest increase for any first three years of a U.S. presidential administration. This represents a 10.3% increase in the number of jobs.


smaller economies/and countries who rely heavily on the US economy were hit harder than the US in regards to inflation. 

 

Just like poor Americans vs wealthy Americans. 

Edited by ChickenSandwich

15 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I can't decide which is more depressing:  the fact that some people don't understand what inflation is, or the fact that others know what it is but pretend that they don't.

Lol.  I know full well what the fuck it is.  

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Lol.  I know full well what the fuck it is.  

Then why are you confusing price and rate?

3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The 14.6 million net jobs added during the first three years of the Biden Administration is the largest increase for any first three years of a U.S. presidential administration.

Job creation bad is certainly a take.

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Then why are you confusing price and rate?

Didn't he get fired from a financial services job around the time of COVID?

5 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Job creation bad is certainly a take.

Didn't he get fired from a financial services job around the time of COVID?

No, I did not.  

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Then why are you confusing price and rate?

I'm not confusing price and rate by any means.   Continued 'elevated' inflation, even at a lower rate, following a multi-year period of high inflation deepens the effects of the inflation.  The compounding effect.  It's the same reason that most of your retirement savings will be the $$ you contributed years/decades ago

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not confusing price and rate by any means.   Continued 'elevated' inflation, even at a lower rate, following a multi-year period of high inflation deepens the effects of the inflation.  The compounding effect.  It's the same reason that most of your retirement savings will be the $$ you contributed years/decades ago

Wow, you've really solved the puzzle.  Please, tell us more about this "compounding" effect you refer to.

The high inflation rates were transitory.  Period, end of sentence, full stop.  Current inflation rates are within historical norms.  Period, end of sentence, full stop.  Nobody said fuck all about prices.

29 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Continued 'elevated' inflation

“Elevated” = below the historical average

got it.

6 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Policy and spending. 
 

Inflation reduction act and Infrastructure act increasing the annual deficit to $1.8 Trillion annually 
 

Increasing the size of government 

image.thumb.png.3335add551d70bc8dd4aada90f3a32f1.png

Compared to Carter/Reagan/Vockler this bout is relatively transitory and that’s the most recent stretch of inflation to compare to. 

I would have said it’s absolutely transitory especially given its acute cause(s) except that it is still (on these charts) a half a point too high. That lingering upward tick is not good long term.

now what happens is anyone’s guess but if the common thinking it we reenter higher inflationary periods because of tariffs it will look long term but in actuality it will be a separate inflationary cause that fucks the chart and people up more. 

Edited by troph

2 hours ago, troph said:

now what happens is anyone’s guess but if the common thinking it we reenter higher inflationary periods because of tariffs it will look long term but in actuality it will be a separate inflationary cause that fucks the chart and people up more. 

We all know where the blame will be (incorrectly) placed.

By the way, the average inflation rate since the end of WW2 is 3.7%, so . . .

Yea the rate is down. Prices are still high.

Why do we argue about this?

On 3/19/2025 at 9:48 PM, Brisketexan said:


There is no “and.” Not to him.

Also…don’t you be so mean as to put the US inflation chart against inflation rates that other nations experienced at the same time. That really ruins the “Biden caused our inflation!” narrative. And it REALLY pisses them off when you show them that the US actually performed BETTER than most every western economy, inflation-wise.
Nope. Inflation was caused by Biden, and Trump saved us. Don’t you get it, libtard?

What exactly are you saying was the cause of inflation in the U.S., then?

Do you agree that the (painful) raising of U.S. lending rates, by the Fed, was needed to reduce it? If not, why did the Fed do that?

1 minute ago, statsman said:

What exactly are you saying was the cause of inflation in the U.S., then?

The cause of inflation in the US?  The same as it was everywhere else in the world: by and large, a supply shock.  There is a decent argument that it was also materially demand-driven (the appropriate mix on those will surely be debated for a while to come), but the important thing is that the phenomenon was pretty uniform between the US and European economies.  That is, we were seeing the same-timed spikes at similar levels.

4 minutes ago, statsman said:

Do you agree that the (painful) raising of U.S. lending rates, by the Fed, was needed to reduce it? If not, why did the Fed do that?

Of course it was something we were going to do - it's one of the tools in our toolkit, and we were surely going to use it.  And, it wasn't without beneficial effect.  While our inflation performance was similar to Europe's, it WAS generally better.  Our economic effects that we were dealing with were things we had in common, and had some real overlap in causes, but we also had tools to deal with it that differed somewhat (although all western economies saw their central banks use the same tool in response -- raising rates).  Hell, the bottom line is that we had a generally stronger economy heading into the post-COVID inflation, so we weathered it better than most.

On 3/23/2025 at 9:33 AM, StassneyHorn said:

Stores are just daring you to steal nowadays

IMG_0897.thumb.jpeg.d6cf2594555b2cbde3f67371279c3ace.jpeg

Rfk, what are you doing bro?

On 3/23/2025 at 10:33 AM, StassneyHorn said:

Stores are just daring you to steal nowadays

IMG_0897.thumb.jpeg.d6cf2594555b2cbde3f67371279c3ace.jpeg

I could eat a box of those.

On 3/19/2025 at 6:30 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

He’s taking a political position, this isn’t about the monetary phenomenon of inflation or the consumer price experience people call inflation. 

 

On 3/20/2025 at 8:49 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Policy and spending. 
 

Inflation reduction act and Infrastructure act increasing the annual deficit to $1.8 Trillion annually 
 

Increasing the size of government 

The 14.6 million net jobs added during the first three years of the Biden Administration is the largest increase for any first three years of a U.S. presidential administration. This represents a 10.3% increase in the number of jobs.


smaller economies/and countries who rely heavily on the US economy were hit harder than the US in regards to inflation. 

 

Just like poor Americans vs wealthy Americans. 

 

On 3/20/2025 at 3:40 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

image.thumb.png.3335add551d70bc8dd4aada90f3a32f1.png

Amazing how people ignore the major trigger for inflation under Trump with one of the most massive money tosses in U.S. history. Democrats are not immune from criticism either. But let’s not pretend this is a “lib” only problem. Every credible deficit reduction plan must include taxes and spending cuts. We have one party and one party only that refuses the taxes. If you want to argue about this head to cloak room. 

And Bill Clinton signed the 1997 Balanced Budget Act.   I think it worked for awhile?

On 3/24/2025 at 3:33 PM, statsman said:

What exactly are you saying was the cause of inflation in the U.S., then?

 

The same cause as always- too many dollars chasing too few goods.

On 3/24/2025 at 3:33 PM, statsman said:

Do you agree that the (painful) raising of U.S. lending rates, by the Fed, was needed to reduce it? If not, why did the Fed do that?

Slightly below historical average rates = “painful”, got it. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

Wage pressure is down but inflation "expectations" is up due to policy uncertainty.

The challenge imo is we are moving into self-fulfilling prophecy with recession and inflation. Everyone expects it so it becomes true.

 

image.thumb.png.11680d559b64a72bbe828b91c4e22bb8.png

8 hours ago, wackawacka said:

Wage pressure is down but inflation "expectations" is up due to policy uncertainty.

FIFY

On 3/29/2025 at 11:05 AM, wackawacka said:

Wage pressure is down but inflation "expectations" is up due to policy uncertainty.

The challenge imo is we are moving into self-fulfilling prophecy with recession and inflation. Everyone expects it so it becomes true.

 

image.thumb.png.11680d559b64a72bbe828b91c4e22bb8.png

Wage pressure down + inflation = stagflation?

  • 2 weeks later...

A sliver of good news:  CPI dropped 0.1% this month, 2.4% annual.  Core CPI rose 0.1%, 2.8% annual.

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

A sliver of good news:  CPI dropped 0.1% this month, 2.4% annual.  Core CPI rose 0.1%, 2.8% annual.

Good news or recession indicator?

that light you see at the end of the tunnel is just the head lamp of an oncoming train 

  • 4 weeks later...

The Fed appears to be curtailing QT. No QE yet, but the Fed is easing on tightening to maintain liquidity. 

IMG_1863.thumb.jpeg.8d19f0ba40f6fe8790d5c373ff7795fe.jpeg

Is that (SOMA) how much the fed bought this auction? And it’s greater than last auction? Or..?

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