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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

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I'm part of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Survey every month and that's what they are reporting. The only people making money on this are at the very start of the supply chain (Raw materials suppliers). Everyone else is passing it along.

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  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

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Inflation within the Euro zone is 6 percent. Nothing politicians have done has really lead to inflation. Supply chain issues and now at are entirely out of the Fed’s control and nothing they do can counter. 

Like with all things Russian, it’ll only get worse 

34 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Inflation within the Euro zone is 6 percent. Nothing politicians have done has really lead to inflation.

Not true, since the european central bank has followed the same expanionary path and playbook as the US. Rates like eurlibor were at negative (we got our mortgage at a 1 pointer). 
 

this was all set in motion pre-pandemic and supply chain bottlenecking. 

1 hour ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Nothing politicians have done has really lead to inflation.

Excuse Me Reaction GIF by Mashable

57 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Not true, since the european central bank has followed the same expanionary path and playbook as the US. Rates like eurlibor were at negative (we got our mortgage at a 1 pointer). 
 

this was all set in motion pre-pandemic and supply chain bottlenecking. 

I'm certainly not an economist and about as anti Trump (no /cr) as I can be but I can't think of much his admin did to bring on inflation. Even if a political action led to some, it would be quite minor. The rapid increase is due to factors IMO outside the control of central governments.  

If you think they should have raised rates back in 2018/19, fair. I just don't know much impact that'd have with today's environment. 

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Not true, since the european central bank has followed the same expanionary path and playbook as the US. Rates like eurlibor were at negative (we got our mortgage at a 1 pointer). 
 

this was all set in motion pre-pandemic and supply chain bottlenecking. 

 

they went the same expansionary direction but the scope, magnitudes, and timing were different.  

 

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

I'm certainly not an economist and about as anti Trump (no /cr) as I can be but I can't think of much his admin did to bring on inflation. Even if a political action led to some, it would be quite minor. The rapid increase is due to factors IMO outside the control of central governments.  

If you think they should have raised rates back in 2018/19, fair. I just don't know much impact that'd have with today's environment. 

 

don't look at it from a Administration A vs Administration B pov.  where'd all those stimmies come from?

38 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

I'm certainly not an economist and about as anti Trump (no /cr) as I can be but I can't think of much his admin did to bring on inflation. Even if a political action led to some, it would be quite minor. The rapid increase is due to factors IMO outside the control of central governments.  

If you think they should have raised rates back in 2018/19, fair. I just don't know much impact that'd have with today's environment. 

well its not 1 thing, caused by 1 party, that can be undone by 1 action.  its a bunch of things which has now coalesced together.  thats the plain and simple reality (which is rarely binary).  my disdain is when it gets cherry-picked for credits and blames and the public gets talked down like children and that goes for both sides of the aisle

2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

where'd all those stimmies come from?

This. You can't keep giving your lazy kids candy and be shocked when they get fat.

15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This. You can't keep giving your lazy kids candy and be shocked when they get fat.

Happy Dance GIF

 

 

So we've been handing out stimulus money for decades -- "cash for clunkers", anyone? -- but suddenly it's the fault of the current administration when inflation spikes?

This isn't all about stimulus, although it contributed for sure, by increasing savings rates.  Who knew a good thing could be a bad thing?

I don’t believe the stimulus payments hurt more than they helped. They literally helped save lives. We will never have data to prove either side but I work in the affordable housing industry and they literally have kept tens of thousands of our clients under roof. Europe who is seeing inflation didn’t do these type of payments and well here we are. Did they increase inflation a small bit? Sure. But probably a rounding error. 

53 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

I don’t believe the stimulus payments hurt more than they helped. They literally helped save lives. We will never have data to prove either side but I work in the affordable housing industry and they literally have kept tens of thousands of our clients under roof. Europe who is seeing inflation didn’t do these type of payments and well here we are. Did they increase inflation a small bit? Sure. But probably a rounding error. 

I mean you posted Europe at 6 and we are at 7.9 so that’s different. If that 6 isn’t apples to apples with our 7.9 my apologies, but specify next time. Japan running under 1%. They’ve recently had deflation and that’s got its own problems of course, but the idea that government policy doesn’t play more than a rounding error part in inflation isn’t something I’d bet lots of money on. 

You guys are dog whistling to the CR and they’re already here with their hot takes.

On 3/7/2022 at 1:43 PM, Blotto said:

If this website is to be believed, its probably cheaper than you would expect based on general inflation over the last 22 years

image.thumb.png.27907fd379a01f0fd55e71d173d1e73d.png

Well, I sit in a McDonald’s for the first time in years here at Disney world. They might be inflated Disney World prices but it’s 4.39 for a large fries. 

On 3/11/2022 at 8:27 PM, The Ace of Aces said:

I don’t believe the stimulus payments hurt more than they helped. They literally helped save lives. We will never have data to prove either side but I work in the affordable housing industry and they literally have kept tens of thousands of our clients under roof. Europe who is seeing inflation didn’t do these type of payments and well here we are. Did they increase inflation a small bit? Sure. But probably a rounding error. 

Not saying it was the right thing or the wrong thing, but from a "pure" economics standpoint, it had an impact. 

Workers get paid for producing a good or service. When they don't produce a good or service, they don't get paid. 

When you pay a worker who doesn't produce, your costs go up. When your costs go up, prices go up. Not only that, but you create a deficit in the amount of goods that are produced (scarcity) which also raises prices (supply/demand). 

 

Quote

Europe who is seeing inflation didn’t do these type of payments and well here we are.

That's just not true. Europe has many provisions already built into their system and had additional measures for Covid relief.

https://time.com/5923840/us-pandemic-relief-bill-december/

Europe has had covid-specific unemployment payments (above and beyond traditional unemployment payment).  They have had (and still do) electricity subsidies.  France have had gasoline subsidy...and I think another country just announced more gasoline help. 

When things get more expensive, you cant fight it by handing out even more money. 

This is not the same as claiming these were the primary causes - the net cost of these actions arent that high, and you cant let people freeze in their homes - but theyre another brick on the path where we are today

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

but theyre another brick on the path where we are today

Exactly. Poor Fed policy (QE lasted way too long), Unbridled government spending, Covid, Artificial supply/demand curve, etc.

No one is blaming one thing, one President, one party but here we are. Time to pay the piper.

On 3/11/2022 at 1:23 PM, The Ace of Aces said:

I'm certainly not an economist and about as anti Trump (no /cr) as I can be but I can't think of much his admin did to bring on inflation. Even if a political action led to some, it would be quite minor. The rapid increase is due to factors IMO outside the control of central governments.  

If you think they should have raised rates back in 2018/19, fair. I just don't know much impact that'd have with today's environment. 

Did central governments shut businesses down unilaterally or did business owners just decide they didn't want to open their doors and keep their livelihood?  

Guys, guys, guys. Fed raises rates 0.25% day after tomorrow. This thread is no longer needed.

Welp. Inflation is now tamed.

FN_XN0rWYAcqloj?format=jpg&name=small

we're just being set up for the rugpull

50 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

we're just being set up for the rugpull

Or the all-knowing market knows the Russian invasion is on its last legs.

One can hope.

15 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Or the all-knowing market knows the Russian invasion is on its last legs.

One can hope.

there's a saying, i think it's in texas - maybe its in tennessee - rug me once, shame on you.  rug me twice... i cant be rugged again

3 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

there's a saying, i think it's in texas - maybe its in tennessee - rug me once, shame on you.  rug me twice... i cant be rugged again

aint they hot george harrison GIF

these are some examples of why inflation is important despite how some posters here act. Lol at posters here claiming inflation affects the rich more  



 

On 3/13/2022 at 5:47 PM, Immaculate Vibes said:

Well, I sit in a McDonald’s for the first time in years here at Disney world. They might be inflated Disney World prices but it’s 4.39 for a large fries. 

Lol. Ain't no way that many companies aren't using this as an excuse to push price. It's silly to think otherwise. 

Are they getting squeezed by rising costs? Absolutely. Are they also raising prices to keep margins at historically elevated levels? Absolutely.

Sure but raising prices to keep margins doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll sell the same amount of widgets. At some point there’s demand destruction.


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Transcript from last week's fed open market committee meeting.  Powell's comments on causes of inflation, projection of level and duration, how they'll react to it.  It's much more refreshingly adult than hearing the politicians talk about it.  

The committee expects inflation to drop by next year to 2.7%, but still higher than long-term target of 2%.

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220316.pdf

Not sure why it’s an opinion piece since it merely states the obvious. It’s a pretty well accepted tenet of modern economics that inflation, particularly petro induced inflation, effects lower incomes more than high income earners. Nothing controversial about it.


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2 hours ago, TxTower said:

Not sure why it’s an opinion piece since it merely states the obvious. It’s a pretty well accepted tenet of modern economics that inflation, particularly petro induced inflation, effects lower incomes more than high income earners. Nothing controversial about it.


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counterpoint:

image.thumb.png.f20a505878a72664432ca009298d67f4.png

 

counterpoint:
image.thumb.png.f20a505878a72664432ca009298d67f4.png
 

Does she also sell beachfront property in Arizona? Deeds to the Brooklyn Bridge?


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19 minutes ago, TxTower said:


Does she also sell beachfront property in Arizona? Deeds to the Brooklyn Bridge?


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Well, what else are ya gonna do with a journalism degree

11 hours ago, TxTower said:

Not sure why it’s an opinion piece since it merely states the obvious. It’s a pretty well accepted tenet of modern economics that inflation, particularly petro induced inflation, effects lower incomes more than high income earners. Nothing controversial about it.


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This isn’t a serious thread. People are talking about how they overpay for gas, can’t find shit on Amazon, or try and convince everyone how bad things are getting while they are on a vacation to Disneyworld and how out of control the price of French fries have become.

 

18 hours ago, TxTower said:

Not sure why it’s an opinion piece since it merely states the obvious. It’s a pretty well accepted tenet of modern economics that inflation, particularly petro induced inflation, effects lower incomes more than high income earners. Nothing controversial about it.


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It’s been posted here, maybe by NeonMoon (?), that inflation is harder on rich people. Also, before it really got rolling that it was good. In any case it is highly destabilizing which we will continue to see. Wait until there’s a global famine later this year, due to increased wheat/commodity costs.

 

strong change of tone from powell towards much more hawkishness than have been heard recently...

On 3/20/2022 at 6:02 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

So 99% of us?

99% of you. (#surlyballerleague)

Edited by Sbbruin

21 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

This isn’t a serious thread. People are talking about how they overpay for gas, can’t find shit on Amazon, or try and convince everyone how bad things are getting while they are on a vacation to Disneyworld and how out of control the price of French fries have become.

 

On 3/20/2022 at 12:35 PM, 52-80 said:

counterpoint:

image.thumb.png.f20a505878a72664432ca009298d67f4.png

 

It's like most people on here are rich, and that the person who asked for two grand, was told to fuck off, complains about rising prices that affect me personally, and you basically make fun of me from there. Fuck off.

 

You were told to fuck off cause you went the route of immediate gratification and asked strangers for money rather than making a budget and sticking to payments. 

 

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