May 21, 20223 yr 6 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said: Hmm, sounds like a buyers' market Edited May 21, 20223 yr by WBT
May 21, 20223 yr 18 hours ago, Trey3216 said: She’s not wrong If you can't trust ReverseCowgirl69 on economics, who can you trust?
May 21, 20223 yr We're in dangerous territory. No way that stripper is paying those ARM mortgages for her 5 homes and condo.
May 21, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Shaggy3.0 said: We're in dangerous territory. No way that stripper is paying those ARM mortgages for her 5 homes and condo. Damn. The stories about the ‘08 bomb with strippers having 3 and 4 “rent” houses on 1 year ARMs was absolutely insane.
May 22, 20223 yr On 5/21/2022 at 10:04 AM, Immaculate Vibes said: If you can't trust ReverseCowgirl69 on economics, who can you trust? She graduated from the same place as most of us, and probably has more experience with the nuances of the cash economy, so…
May 24, 20223 yr On 5/20/2022 at 9:14 AM, tbone_ said: How you consistently overpay for gas in Scottsdale is one of the best running jokes in here.
May 25, 20223 yr How you consistently overpay for gas in Scottsdale is one of the best running jokes in here.It’s a data point fuckstick.No one is asking you where the fuck I should or shouldn’t buy gas.But whatever amuses you I guess.
May 25, 20223 yr Before you do, drive down Hayden South of Indian School Rd and stop at Fry's for $5.00 gas
May 25, 20223 yr Inflation may be sticking around, but expectations of future inflation are cooling off.
May 25, 20223 yr Fed minutes out at 2 pm. Looking for whether Fed will pause hikes when neutral rate reached or whether the Fed will continue hikes until inflation cessation achieved. Doves want pause; hawks want rate increases until inflation controlled.
May 25, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, Parliament said: #transitive This has a slightly different meaning than transitory but you are a buckeye. My data point today: 86 bucks filling up my car at pickys pantry on Bee Cave road. Ouch. Of course it was 93 octane because I can’t use peasant gasoline.
May 26, 20223 yr Here’s another serious inflationary data point: developers are switching a lot of product from single family for sale, or conventional builders, to single family for rent. That is due to lower income families and individuals who want to move into a house not qualifying due to higher interest rates, higher taxes, and higher home prices. The housing affordability crisis is about to get turbo fucked. Because rent is a sure way to take away a method for building wealth for a lot of families.
May 26, 20223 yr Ouch. 1st Quarter GDP -1.5% (after 2021 4Q was + 6.9%). Not totes unexpected but worse than predicted and not great to see that much of a swan dive. And jobless claims are ticking up, again to be expected with economic contraction:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/first-quarter-gdp-declined-15-25-worse-than-thought-jobless-claims-climb/ar-AAXKVmD Recession is a bit closer today than yesterday... but time will tell (June's report is gonna be very bad... or just a little bad.....)
May 26, 20223 yr Treat me like I'm dumb. But I have a few questions. Does it really matter if we're actually *near* or *close* to recession? I mean, don't enough businesses simply need to *believe* recession is here? Do we really need Beeks' crop report with the bad news to make decisions going forward? In IT, company layoffs have signaled recession. ✨Notable 2022 U.S. tech layoffs ✨PayPalKlarnaSkillz Inc.OutsideColossusNetflixPicsartZulilyVroomLatchSubspaceSection4ZwiftDataRobotCarvanaREEFMURALOn DeckCameoIdeoclick, Inc.ViseThrasioNoom Inc.RobinhoodClydeBlendBetterRad Power BikesAutomoxFood52WorkriseFastGopuffClickUpBolt
May 26, 20223 yr Well, "officially" a recession has been 2 proven quarters of contraction in a row (measured by various means). Lots of people still use this, although the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months..." But I agree with you that the impression or dread of recession can alter company/consumer behavior, and sometimes bring them on faster. However, there have been a number of times where the country followed a negative month by a positive one.
May 26, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Well, "officially" a recession has been 2 proven quarters of contraction in a row (measured by various means). Lots of people still use this, although the NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months..." But I agree with you that the impression or dread of recession can alter company/consumer behavior, and sometimes bring them on faster. However, there have been a number of times where the country followed a negative month by a positive one. Latest gdp now estimate for Q2 is 1.8. Was 2.4 last week.
May 27, 20223 yr On 5/25/2022 at 9:59 AM, Storm the Field said: Inflation may be sticking around, but expectations of future inflation are cooling off. It’s not great if we keep stacking inflation at numbers between where they are now and 5 years from now still being over 2. We need some roll backs in prices not this as a new normal. Breathtaking how expensive it was going to the store and buying gas and basically any time I take out my credit card. I can’t imagine how scary this must be for the average person.
May 27, 20223 yr 12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said: I can’t imagine how scary this must be for the average person. Nice humblebrag, sir.
May 27, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said: Nice humblebrag, sir. I’m scared bc of what it could do to my income as an owner of 2 very small businesses in real estate, not what I pay at pump or for hamburger meat.
May 27, 20223 yr Honest question: when have prices ever fallen?Housing cyclesVolatile gas pricesTech, because of Moore’s law etcSeems like everything else is going to really sticky.
May 27, 20223 yr Honest question: when have prices ever fallen?Housing cyclesVolatile gas pricesTech, because of Moore’s law etcSeems like everything else is going to really sticky. Higher prices are the new normal. There will be no reversion to last years prices. Some cooling in from the insanity in the housing market but overall higher prices are here to stay. Inflation is imbedded in consumer goods, food, housing and energy which is the vast majority of the economy. The Fed fucked around and is finding out.The only way prices fall is if we fall into serious recession and while I think that could happen, I see a mild recession as more likely.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
May 27, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, tbone_ said: Honest question: when have prices ever fallen? Housing cycles Volatile gas prices Tech, because of Moore’s law etc Seems like everything else is going to really sticky. So all three things you said are certainly things that can fall. When there are temporary dislocations in the supply and demand curve that should cause prices to fall once they have risen because of said dislocations- I would think. I’m thinking food this happens with all the time with something like mad cow, bird flu, or shitty harvests. I’ve never done drugs but don’t street prices rise and fall based upon interdiction efforts by the government, differences in harvest yields and/or war for turf that effects supply available? Seems like some things should go back down (I hope) and some remain stickier.
May 27, 20223 yr 26 minutes ago, tbone_ said: Honest question: when have prices ever fallen? Housing cycles Volatile gas prices Tech, because of Moore’s law etc Seems like everything else is going to really sticky. Televisions have been deflating for 20 years. Other consumer electronics as well. Food is volatile as well. Specifically, commodities like beef, eggs, milk....
May 27, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, MissingInAction said: How are pork belly futures looking? Let me lift up your mom's shirt and I'll tell you
May 27, 20223 yr 55 minutes ago, tbone_ said: Honest question: when have prices ever fallen? Housing cycles Volatile gas prices Tech, because of Moore’s law etc Seems like everything else is going to really sticky. I feel pretty confident that higher energy prices will be the norm. Cost of the “energy transition”.
May 27, 20223 yr I think the answer to my question is basically never. At least not outside a depression scenario.
May 27, 20223 yr Some good numbers just released. Inflation definitely cooler in April than before (but still pretty bad): - CPI had first decline in 17 months: 6.3% YOY (vs. around the 8%'s the past few months) - Core PCE (w/o energy/gas) down to 4.9% - 3rd straight month of down. - YOY CPI "down" to 8.3% from previous 12-month rolling 8.5ish. - Consumer spending (to me) surprisingly has continued to be positive, if barely, 0.9% last month (March revised slightly upward). The good side is that these indicators clearly show a cooling off, however brief. The bad side is that May has been a brutal month for energy/gas/housing, far worse than recent, and May's figures (released late June) are expected to not be April's. So will this be a rest stop on the steep stairway to more inflation/recession, or a true top of the coaster track? I think it'll be the beginning of a s-l-o-w cooling off, expected to last well into the fall, but slower is better than nothing. However, a return to the "glory days" of <2% inflation is probably way off right now. So the mantra is, "still kinda sucks, but the suckage was less last month. We'll see how the suckage fares after a very bad May, next month."
May 27, 20223 yr I think the answer to my question is basically never. At least not outside a depression scenario. Correct. The globalization of economies and accommodative monetary policies that drove down prices of goods and capital over the last 30 yrs is yesterdays news. It’s a new world.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
May 27, 20223 yr 58 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Some good numbers just released. Inflation definitely cooler in April than before (but still pretty bad): - CPI had first decline in 17 months: 6.3% YOY (vs. around the 8%'s the past few months) - Core PCE (w/o energy/gas) down to 4.9% - 3rd straight month of down. - YOY CPI "down" to 8.3% from previous 12-month rolling 8.5ish. - Consumer spending (to me) surprisingly has continued to be positive, if barely, 0.9% last month (March revised slightly upward). The good side is that these indicators clearly show a cooling off, however brief. The bad side is that May has been a brutal month for energy/gas/housing, far worse than recent, and May's figures (released late June) are expected to not be April's. So will this be a rest stop on the steep stairway to more inflation/recession, or a true top of the coaster track? I think it'll be the beginning of a s-l-o-w cooling off, expected to last well into the fall, but slower is better than nothing. However, a return to the "glory days" of <2% inflation is probably way off right now. So the mantra is, "still kinda sucks, but the suckage was less last month. We'll see how the suckage fares after a very bad May, next month." Look for higher numbers YoY from the summer time because of what we are comparing to from the previous time last year. because that’s know and baked in the numbers to watch for are the month to month to see what direction we are going. If it’s truly going to be getting better we need to start seeing negative - 0.2 or less on the monthly.
May 27, 20223 yr 57 minutes ago, phdhorn said: So the mantra is, "still kinda sucks, but the suckage was less last month. We'll see how the suckage fares after a very bad May, next month." The boxed in area is April, more pain in May.
May 27, 20223 yr Because sometimes you need good news, lumber prices continue to decline. We’re only about 75% above pre covid average.
May 27, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, StruggleBus said: Let me lift up your mom's shirt and I'll tell you That's a penis.
May 28, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Incredulity said: Reported I clicked the post from the guy I have on ignore and immediately regretted it. Good thing it was short and useless.
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