Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

Featured Replies

  • Replies 8.1k
  • Views 496.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

  • PilotsError
    PilotsError

Posted Images

17 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Oh boy today is going to suck.

I can only be sucked so much.

Met with a monthly manufacturing exec group this morning…. Had one guy talking about people trying to source from him with 12 month lead time, and his answer was he can’t even price right now for 3 because of raw material inflation and skyrocketing shipping cost…. 
 

The recession is here and it’s going to be the big “R” not the little one.

Just now, Laxtonto said:

Met with a monthly manufacturing exec group this morning…. Had one guy talking about people trying to source from him with 12 month lead time, and his answer was he can’t even price right now for 3 because of raw material inflation and skyrocketing shipping cost…. 
 

The recession is here and it’s going to be the big “R” not the little one.

Same. "Can you give us pricing that can be locked in thru 2023?"

Are you high or just not paying attention? 

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Same. "Can you give us pricing that can be locked in thru 2023?"

Are you high or just not paying attention? 

Had another guy that does large scale commercial countertops fab and had a firm come to him asking to quote for 3,000 units for Spring 24 and his first ask was are you insane and his seconds was how are you getting financed for new construction? 
 

It’s ugly. Was not the normal cheery group I’ve met in the past, but it didn’t help that the CPI print dropped in the middle of it.

The Fed will keep the beatings until morale improves.

Damn. I keep buying... and it keeps going down. It is nice to at least be able to earn a little on savings though.

Economic warfare from Russia to tighten up energy markets and destabilize other markets has been very successful. Hopefully as we recover, our supply lines will remember this shit show and choose differently to be less reliant on JIT

9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Hopefully as we recover, our supply lines will remember this shit show and choose differently to be less reliant on JIT

That Pandora's box will never be closed. 

 

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Same. "Can you give us pricing that can be locked in thru 2023?"

Are you high or just not paying attention? 

#whynotboth

  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting chart I found. 
as10-2.png

51 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Interesting chart I found. 

Would be cool to see that chart with Net Profit as a second line to see the impact of taxes/interest

In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago. Longer term, the cattle cycle has started to confirm what is likely to be a massive contraction, so expect beef to be much more expensive 12-24 months out. 

20 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Would be cool to see that chart with Net Profit as a second line to see the impact of taxes/interest

Have taxes changed? Interest rates really only changed in the past few months. 

19 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Have taxes changed?

Depends what you mean by "taxes". Federal "corporate taxes" have gone down. Payroll taxes have increased. State/Local/Municipal taxes have increased.

But the devil is in the detail. Corporate taxes are the easiest to manipulate/control by offshoring / Cap investment timing, etc.

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago.

Avocados are quite cheap again. 

For a long time, it was really hard to find a rack of ribs for less than $20. I've found multiple on sale for $10 or less the last 2 months or so.

9 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

In a piece of ancedata, while grocery shopping yesterday, almost everything I bought was marked down from where it was two weeks ago. Longer term, the cattle cycle has started to confirm what is likely to be a massive contraction, so expect beef to be much more expensive 12-24 months out. 

Looking forward to $50 a pound brisket. 

16 minutes ago, Deej said:

Looking forward to $50 a pound brisket. 

Wait another 12-24 beyond the spike and the cattle cycle will swing hard the other way at least 

11 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Interesting chart I found. 
as10-2.png

Does this take into account decreased volume?. Less pies mean you need to make more on your pies if you are selling less pies.

CHIEF

Edited by CHIEF

11 hours ago, CHIEF said:

Does this take into account decreased volume?. Less pies mean you need to make more on your pies if you are selling less pies.

CHIEF

Fewer pies. Fewer.

 

On 9/16/2022 at 9:10 AM, Humble Beast said:

Yep FedEx getting rekt. Pulled guidance for next year. Demand went off a cliff in August evidently. 
 

UPS on the other hand.

 

Case-Shiller home index for August registers a pretty significant drop for the 2nd straight month.

Down 0.7% in July, 1.3% in August. 

YOY change has dropped from 21% as of April to 13% as of this latest report.

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Case-Shiller home index for August registers a pretty significant drop for the 2nd straight month.

Down 0.7% in July, 1.3% in August. 

YOY change has dropped from 21% as of April to 13% as of this latest report.

we did it wow GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

18 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

A YouTuber that’s pretty financially savy stated that on inflation, “The US is nicest house in a bad neighborhood.”

Yeah comparisons to Turkey and Argentina are nonsensical.  Argentina has been a complete disaster for at least a decade and Turkey is essentially a failed state.

32 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

A YouTuber that’s pretty financially savy stated that on inflation, “The US is nicest house in a bad neighborhood.”

Well yeah.  I mean, we ARE the reserved currency in this game.  Please walk this way...right over here, so I can demonstrate the most recent model of our well-built printing press.  It's this way, down in the JPow basement.  Plenty of fun can be had by all.

 

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

37 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

Cracking Up Lol GIF by HULU

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

Yeah, welcome to being self insured. It's been about that for years now. I purposely haven't previewed rates for 2023 because it will put me in a terrible mood. 

And that's for abysmal coverage.

Fed is expected to raiset the prime rate twice more before the end of the year. Prepare thine anuses

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

LOL
6 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Sort of related I think - BCBS quoted us a 17% increase on insurance for our company. Hopefully HR can shop around and find something less expensive that is still good coverage 

Nothing new.  Although I am an engineer, at our startup we all wear multiple hats, and I got the "manage the company health plan" short straw.  Our cost (per person) has been going up about that much every year for a while.

Edited by jimmyjazz

Have definitely noticed the change at the grocery store people mentioned above. Sausages down quite a bit so that stuck out /phrasing 

 

Japan going with some pretty heavy stimulus. Included are energy subsidies and other means to “help” with inflation. 
 

Their inflation is lower than the rest of the globe’s, only 3%.  But the currency exchange rate has been tanking all year. This should help that continue. 

 

17 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Well don’t trip over yourselves to post today

Here ya go 

 

On 10/24/2022 at 9:11 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Interesting chart I found. 
as10-2.png

This is incredible. I wonder if pseudo-monopolies/duopolies are responsible for a lot of the margin increases. 

26 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This is incredible. I wonder if pseudo-monopolies/duopolies are responsible for a lot of the margin increases. 

That would be my guess. Think about how a handful of companies (Apple/Google, etc) dominate the value of the S&P500. Their margins would account for a HUGE percentage of this. A bubble chart would be much more telling, but Apple/Google would be like putting Jupiter next to a marble when comparing them to any other business.

PCE price deflator comes out tomorrow. It is a big data point for the Fed.  
 

The Fed uses the PCE price deflators numbers rather than CPI for several reasons, not the least of which is a consumer’s ability to substitute lesser quality goods/services when prices rise for higher quality products (think NY Strip steak instead of Ribeye).  
 

Regardless, I still expect .75 rather than .50 as some have been wish-casting lately. 

It's about time people woke the fuck up and stopped buying superfluous shit.  This is what the Fed is looking for (generally, not specifically wrt amazon).

Visas earnings deck this week didnt go into forward projections but all their lagging spending indicators were still showing uppies

14 hours ago, bernorange said:

It's about time people woke the fuck up and stopped buying superfluous shit.  This is what the Fed is looking for (generally, not specifically wrt amazon).

Time for "flight to safety" that will go away when the next shiny object comes along.

The weaker economies reliant on energy imports going to stay fucked for a while.  Some because they fucked themselves (Germany) some because they just are in the crossfire.  

25 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The weaker economies reliant on energy imports going to stay fucked for a while.  Some because they fucked themselves (Germany) some because they just are in the crossfire.  

That’s the paradox. We’re (hopefully) realizing we need more oil and gas investment right as interest rates are rising worldwide. Makes it tougher to increase supply which would bring prices down over time. 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.