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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

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Not sure how we missed it. It was so simple!

image.jpeg.32ba7b94751698b64c3ea321b9f1a524.jpeg

 

But seriously... Thanks for posting, I look forward to reading it.

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  • Bateshorn
    Bateshorn

    The only thing more predictable than the GOP running up huge deficits on tax cuts and military spending, is each one suddenly becoming horrified by deficit spending 5 mins after a Democrat is sworn in

  • PilotsError
    PilotsError

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Our main finding is that the shift in consumption demand from services towards goods can explain a large proportion of the rise in U.S. inflation between 2019:Q4 and 2021:Q4.

 

I'm going to get on my soapbox on this until I turn blue.

1. We have become a service economy for China's goods which will continue to create a class of workers who are "expendable" during a crisis and will continue to suppress wages.

2. We have been sold on the idea of JIT inventory streams that provide little wiggle room during a crisis. No worries, if it goes bad, China will crank up the shop! (until they can't)

Until we bring manufacturing back to the US, this will happen again and again. 

That’s our world now. Everything calibrated for max efficiency. Which is great until there’s a monkey wrench in the gears and there’s zero tolerance for any lack of precision whatsoever.

Wasn't Dimon recently claiming that the FED was pushing us into recession? Gotta play both sides!

Edited by Cheeseweasel

Well who gave the monkey a wrench???

China apparently.
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wasn't Dimon recently claiming that the FED was pushing us into recession? Gotta play both sides!

And saying that a "hurricane" was coming?

And a recession in 6-9 months as of October 2022 (meaning 6 months starts in March)  (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-warns-us-likely-to-tip-into-recession-soon.html) followed by comments today that the "U.S. economy is doing quite well" and he isn't "breaking out the recession playbook"? (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/02/23/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-he-always-has-a-recession-playbook-but-isnt-using-it-right-now.html)

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

 

I'm going to get on my soapbox on this until I turn blue.

1. We have become a service economy for China's goods which will continue to create a class of workers who are "expendable" during a crisis and will continue to suppress wages.

2. We have been sold on the idea of JIT inventory streams that provide little wiggle room during a crisis. No worries, if it goes bad, China will crank up the shop! (until they can't)

Until we bring manufacturing back to the US, this will happen again and again. 

Hence the rise of Shein and **checks notes for htis week** TEMU.

2 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

Hence the rise of Shein and **checks notes for htis week** TEMU.

Horrible that we allow it to happen.

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Well who gave the monkey a wrench???

shareholders did, they demanded lower costs and monkeys will work for peanuts!

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

shareholders did, they demanded lower costs and monkeys will work for peanuts!

We swapped pensions for 401Ks. It's almost like it had to happen this way...

Saw an early headline push to my phone -- "Inflation 5.4% Month to Month".  Uh, surely that's YoY?  Yup.  Way to cause mass cardiac arrest, guys.

28 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Futures don't like it.

That seems to be the response to all news, good or bad.

27 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That seems to be the response to all news, good or bad.

Not true,  The markets are looking for news that the Fed's work is yielding disinflation.  The market wants to place bets on a Fed pivot (ending QT and rate increases).  The market wants more financial crack (QE, rate decreases).  News which shows the economy doing well or inflation running hot means the Fed has to keep pressure on the brake (futures no likey).  News which shows the economy under pressure or disinflation means the Fed might be persuaded to end the reign of (QT and rate increase) terror.  The markets just want to front run the Fed.

On 2/16/2023 at 12:22 PM, HamsterHookah said:

I'm starting to think that we are a nation of consumers now who will literally not stop buying things until we are all broke and in the ditches of the muddy streets. And even then we will have a smart cell phone with cash app.

Sane, rational policies to try and get people to stop buying crap is not going to work in 2023, I guess is the fear.

 

On 2/20/2023 at 5:07 PM, washparkhorn said:

Housing price inflation in one chart.

Peaked in April 2022 at 2.74 trillion. 

that doesn't show housing price inflation, it shows the total dollar amount of mortgage backed securities held on the fed's balance sheet at any point in time.  

 

if you're looking for a housing price inflation chart use the case shiller price index.  here's the chart for that over the same time period.

image.png.da812480a706568cc3f1288ccbc6b92f.png

So housing prices have essentially doubled in the last decade.

Get fucked, grandkids.

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So housing prices have essentially doubled in the last decade.

Get fucked, grandkids.

I get the sentiment, but housing equity is one of the biggest traditional sources of "wealth" accumulation for the average Joe.  Maybe there will be something to leave those grandkids.  (Yes, the buying power of each dollar is diminished, too.)

I hope you are right. I fear that aging boomers will blow that wealth on hookers and blue pills as a final middle finger to the world.

11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I get the sentiment, but housing equity is one of the biggest traditional sources of "wealth" accumulation for the average Joe.  Maybe there will be something to leave those grandkids.  (Yes, the buying power of each dollar is diminished, too.)

The issue is exactly that. Grandparents were able to buy an affordable house and build wealth through it. The grandkids aren't able to do so near as easily. Instead of building wealth themselves, they are now hoping that grandparents leave them a little something.

3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The issue is exactly that. Grandparents were able to buy an affordable house and build wealth through it. The grandkids aren't able to do so near as easily. Instead of building wealth themselves, they are now hoping that grandparents leave them a little something.

Attorneys specializing in murder of grandparents to get wealth before they blow it is going to be a lucrative business.

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

So housing prices have essentially doubled in the last decade.

Get fucked, grandkids.

Don't fret.  This bubble will also deflate and/or pop.

Lol. Redfin's home value estimates are hot garbage. I explained on another thread that I keep a monthly spreadsheet of accounts. I pull the Redfin and Zillow home estimates and average them together.

At the peak, Redfin said my house was worth $680K. It is now sub-$500k just about 8 months later. But if you look at their chart of the historical value, it rose in 2020/2021 and has now just been flat. It's like they decided to just ignore that they ever had the house value that high. 

Since higher, for longer is the mantra regarding rates...

 

 

Now spending more on interest than our beloved military industrial complex. Ruh roh.

35 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. Redfin's home value estimates are hot garbage.

They definitely seem disconnected.  Last time I got an "estimate" from Redfin, it was roughly 0.6X what Travis County appraises my house for.  Zillow is dead nuts on TCAD, barely 0.3% higher.  Redfin's assessment of my immediate neighbors, whose houses are decades older, smaller, on similar lots are way higher than their estimate for my house.  I dunno, I'm thinking Redfin is basically a roulette wheel.

43 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Now spending more on interest than our beloved military industrial complex. Ruh roh.

Yes, but I've been informed not to worry because we are paying the interest to ourselves. 

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yes, but I've been informed not to worry because we are paying the interest to ourselves. 

Only if all of ourselves hold t bills, right?  I am very interested in the potential outcomes here and I don’t see that ultimately it is either austerity or inflating out of debt that’s the answer.  Maybe both!  But it’s going to get fugly eventually.

Quote

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rise fell 0.5% in December, its sixth monthly decline.

Year-over-year appreciation was still up 4.6%, but has slowed down from a 6.8% annual increase in the previous month.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in December, but was up 5.8% over the past year.
...
Big picture: Home prices reflect the major slowdown the interest rate-sensitive housing sector went through at the end of last year.

And with mortgage rates back up, housing sales are poised to take a hit, meaning that home prices will likely continue this downward slide in the coming months.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-financing-remains-a-headwind-for-home-prices-home-price-growth-slows-in-december-with-san-francisco-leading-the-way-60a0332c?rss=1&siteid=rss

Hate anecdotal posts but I’ve been seeing a lot from the below article in regards to falling rent in Scottsdale and Chicago. Saw a place advertising first 2 months free and a $1000 gift card in Scottsdale, places near LakeShore Dr on the north side of Chicago with 1BR for $1550 or less with most amenities and internet included. Studios in the $1100 area. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/rent-decline-fall-apartment-housing-market-landlords-tenant-lease-construction-2023-3?amp

Landlords aren't just lowering rents — they're handing out perks like gift cards and free parking

Gift cards and concessions on new build lease up apartments aren’t at all uncommon.

22 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Gift cards and concessions on new build lease up apartments aren’t at all uncommon.

How long til I can pay rent with Best Buy gift cards?

1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

Gift cards and concessions on new build lease up apartments aren’t at all uncommon.

No they aren’t. $1000 gift cards ARE uncommon, especially combined with 2 months free or 6 weeks are. 

30 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

No they aren’t. $1000 gift cards ARE uncommon, especially combined with 2 months free or 6 weeks are. 

My second apartment in Denver, granted that was in 2020, was 6 weeks free and $2000 gift card. It was wild 

Stassney - do you really want to argue with me on what’s common and what isn’t common regarding new apartment complexes?

3 hours ago, B00M said:

How long til I can pay rent with Best Buy gift cards?

I have some crypto in my FTX account I'd like to get rid of.

 

2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Stassney - do you really want to argue with me on what’s common and what isn’t common regarding new apartment complexes?

I literally agreed with you. Change your tampon. Tons of places offer free month rent or 500 dollar gift cards. Not two months free and 1000-2000 dollar gift cards.

15 hours ago, B00M said:

How long til I can pay rent with Best Buy gift cards?

How many USB ports does the apartment have?

40 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

How many USB ports does the apartment have?

2 just in the bidet controller 

 
I literally agreed with you. Change your tampon. Tons of places offer free month rent or 500 dollar gift cards. Not two months free and 1000-2000 dollar gift cards.

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