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#551
Not saying I disagree with you, however aren't some of the folks from those Latin American countries most of the ones who are still trying to get into our country by any way possible? Yeah, we do some pretty crappy stuff, and did much crappier stuff in the past, but that doesn't mean that all people don't see the good in America still. While I haven't spent any time in the Middle East, I spent a summer in an overwhelmingly muslim West African country, and they all wanted to go to America even though none of them liked our leader, Dubya. We've obviously not meddled in West Africa in recent history like we have the Middle East, but I would not be surprised at all if you could find a significant proportion of people even in Iran who would be pro West. I'm not saying sanctions are the best option, but there isn't reason to abandon all hope.

Except for maybe the bastards who have gotten rich and the hard core Islamists, the rest of Iran wish they could live in the US and most have relatives that do and would love a normal government.

You don’t think the people of Honduras, Venezuela or El Salvador wouldn’t get on their hands and knees for some TR style gunboat diplomacy by the US to help fix their messes in their country. Hell, if the UN declared them US mandates to help get rid of the gangs, I’m sure there would be support from the natives
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  • Hank Kingsley
    Hank Kingsley

    My dad is Iranian, so I'm not gonna let Iconoclast be the sole Iran authority on this thread.  To say the US-Iran relationship is complex is an understatement.  You could make a very strong argum

  • Lagunamadre
    Lagunamadre

    If only we could come to an agreement with Iran and all of our allies to bring them to the table to end their nuclear program. 

  • sheeeit
    sheeeit

    First, this is the problem with any POTUS entering into such a dramatic deal without congressional approval.  Because if we let one guy do it, then we do not have a choice if the next guy wants to und

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#552
9 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:




3. Kill Khamenei. He is the prime stumbling block and this where assassinations can be used for good. I would have Maduro in Venezuela killed too.

 

The Shias would love that. Do you think the Catholics would be pissed if we assassinated the Pope?  

#553

Don't confuse liking some Americans or wanting to live in America with political attitudes toward America.

American churches and charities have done wonderful things in Latin America. American government trained death and torture squads, put puppet governments in place in order to allow American corporations to reap the wealth of the countries. We are guilty of crimes against humanity in Latin America.

Maybe the Iranians have forgotten the Shah and Savak, our viral injections into their world. I doubt it. American involvement with Iran and most of the MidEast except Saudi and Israel has been stupid, violent, and inconsistent. Arabs and Persians wanting to live here likely has no bearing in how they view us in their own countries.

Maybe they feel about our meddling the same way we feel about Russian meddling in the US. Maybe they're sort of like us that way.

#554
7 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:


Except for maybe the bastards who have gotten rich and the hard core Islamists, the rest of Iran wish they could live in the US and most have relatives that do and would love a normal government.

You don’t think the people of Honduras, Venezuela or El Salvador wouldn’t get on their hands and knees for some TR style gunboat diplomacy by the US to help fix their messes in their country. Hell, if the UN declared them US mandates to help get rid of the gangs, I’m sure there would be support from the natives

I'll add that this sounds an awful lot like, "Inside every gook there's an American trying to get out."

We're arrogant and vain that way.

#555
4 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

The Shias would love that. Do you think the Catholics would be pissed if we assassinated the Pope?  

They'd feel liberated and fall on their hands and knees in gratitude.

There's some crazy shit on this page.

#556
48 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

1. Apply pressure on the thugocracy which thanks to Trump we are doing.

Not really. What little "pressure" is being applied on Iran is just backfiring as usual because it's a stupid idea. When you levy sanctions on a government, the wish and hope is that the crippling of the citizenry will galvanize them to turn on the country's leader. That almost never happens because it's an easy-as-shit propaganda tool to use: "look, the US is the one that's fucking y'all over. It's not us."

33 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

2. Don’t support any groups threatening the territorial integrity of Iran.

Well that would include the US and Israeli governments because they've been repeatedly calling for Iran's destruction for well over a decade by now. Really all you're left with are governments that are supportive of Iran and Iranians themselves in terms of people who fit that description.

33 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

3. Kill Khamenei. He is the prime stumbling block and this where assassinations can be used for good. I would have Maduro in Venezuela killed too.

Ha. Yeah, just like killing Saddam Hussein worked so well for the people of Iraq, right? Symbolic killings appeal only to the symbol-minded. Killing the head of state might make you personally feel good, but the issue isn't what makes you feel good. It's about what's best for Iranians in general, and for a foreign power to kill him would only incite them further. I mean just look at us. Most of the country finds Donald Trump to be a pathetic, loathsome creature and they'd like nothing more than to see him take a long walk off a short pier, but I'll be goddamned if anyone can find any respectably sized demographic who would support getting rid of him via assassination by a foreign power.

33 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

4. Call for a national referendum for free elections in Iran without any vetting by the Islamic theocrats

What makes you think the United States is interested in free elections in the Islamic world? Did you not read the Palestine Papers w/r/t the US' dismissive attitude towards the idea of hoaxing the 2006 PLC election? If the US' desire for free elections in the Middle East were fuel, it wouldn't power a flea's motorcycle around a drop of rain. You know better than that.

33 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Obviously #3 is a wish but the rest of these items are doable

They're also detestable.

#557
2 hours ago, Iconoclast Texan said:


Do other countries have the US military, economic clout and diplomatic pull that we can point to to counter any attempt by an adversary to assassinate our own people? We have the might and ability to get away with assassinations just like Israel and we wouldn’t be stupid like MBS was in killing Khashoggi in our own consulate. I didn’t agree with Orca on virtually anything except for sanctions are a poor substitute to dropping a bomb or having a sniper blow Khamenei’s head off.

So it's a question of efficacy then?  If a country (Russia, China, DPRK, etc.) had enough to gain from such a plan such that the risk was outweighed you would be okay with it?  As a less extreme example, how about if they meddled with our elections?  Under your logic, if it would be okay for us I don't see why someone else shouldn't be able to do the same if it makes sense for them to do so.  

Edited by Fozzz

#558
46 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Not really. What little "pressure" is being applied on Iran is just backfiring as usual because it's a stupid idea. When you levy sanctions on a government, the wish and hope is that the crippling of the citizenry will galvanize them to turn on the country's leader. That almost never happens because it's an easy-as-shit propaganda tool to use: "look, the US is the one that's fucking y'all over. It's not us."

Well that would include the US and Israeli governments because they've been repeatedly calling for Iran's destruction for well over a decade by now. Really all you're left with are governments that are supportive of Iran and Iranians themselves in terms of people who fit that description.

Ha. Yeah, just like killing Saddam Hussein worked so well for the people of Iraq, right? Symbolic killings appeal only to the symbol-minded. Killing the head of state might make you personally feel good, but the issue isn't what makes you feel good. It's about what's best for Iranians in general, and for a foreign power to kill him would only incite them further. I mean just look at us. Most of the country finds Donald Trump to be a pathetic, loathsome creature and they'd like nothing more than to see him take a long walk off a short pier, but I'll be goddamned if anyone can find any respectably sized demographic who would support getting rid of him via assassination by a foreign power.

What makes you think the United States is interested in free elections in the Islamic world? Did you not read the Palestine Papers w/r/t the US' dismissive attitude towards the idea of hoaxing the 2006 PLC election? If the US' desire for free elections in the Middle East were fuel, it wouldn't power a flea's motorcycle around a drop of rain. You know better than that.

They're also detestable.

Asking for free elections with no vetting is detestable in your view?

#559
49 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

So it's a question of efficacy then?  If a country (Russia, China, DPRK, etc.) had enough to gain from such a plan such that the risk was outweighed you would be okay with it?  As a less extreme example, how about if they meddled with our elections?  Under your logic, if it would be okay for us I don't see why someone else shouldn't be able to do the same if it makes sense for them to do so.  

We have and continue to meddle in foreign elections, even those of allies like Israel, when Obama wanted anyone to the left of Netanyahu. As for the Russians doing it to us, that’s fair game in my book and have to tip your cap to them on what they pulled off. Try harder to prevent them from doing it again. 

#560
44 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

Asking for free elections with no vetting is detestable in your view?

They’re not interested in free elections in the Middle East. That’s make believe and pretend, and that’s why it’s detestable.

  • 1 year later...
#561

Massive thread bump here, although I must say that @hpslugga's post above is rather on point for 2020 in America.

Ran across this in the morning news and um it's a little concerning:

I'm becoming so jaded by Trump and his people, that I'm torn between believing that she is a target by Iranian govt vs our own (as a sacrificial lamb). It is awful to even consider but here we are 2020. Where re-election desperation has no boundaries.

#562
6 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Massive thread bump here, although I must say that @hpslugga's post above is rather on point for 2020 in America.

Ran across this in the morning news and um it's a little concerning:

I'm becoming so jaded by Trump and his people, that I'm torn between believing that she is a target by Iranian govt vs our own (as a sacrificial lamb). It is awful to even consider but here we are 2020. Where re-election desperation has no boundaries.

Starting wars doesn't seem to be Trumps thing, so I don't believe she's gonna be set up by our own gov't.  I have no doubt that Iran is planning a tit for tat retaliation, and that does fall squarely on his shoulders based on his approval of the killing of Soleimani, even if it was justified for his past acts.

#563
8 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Massive thread bump here, although I must say that @hpslugga's post above is rather on point for 2020 in America.

Ran across this in the morning news and um it's a little concerning:

I'm becoming so jaded by Trump and his people, that I'm torn between believing that she is a target by Iranian govt vs our own (as a sacrificial lamb). It is awful to even consider but here we are 2020. Where re-election desperation has no boundaries.

Reichstag fire is very much within the realm of possibility for these traitors.

#564
10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Starting wars doesn't seem to be Trumps thing, so I don't believe she's gonna be set up by our own gov't.  I have no doubt that Iran is planning a tit for tat retaliation, and that does fall squarely on his shoulders based on his approval of the killing of Soleimani, even if it was justified for his past acts.

That's what I was leaning towards, but I really struggle with the killing of Khassoghi and what really happened with respect to the Administration (and I'm including Jared in this). I mean it's just awful. And we never truly know (despite the hearings) what went on with Yavanovitch as it came across (with respect to the danger) as an "it is what it is" response directly from the CiC. I mean, her life was already at risk just given the circumstances surrounding Ukraine and Russia relations and the elections there, and most career ambassadors seem to understand the circumstances specific to their assignments, but that situation was clouded by the WH intentionally.

I agree that Trump does not seem eager to start foreign wars.

#565
3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

That's what I was leaning towards, but I really struggle with the killing of Khassoghi and what really happened with respect to the Administration (and I'm including Jared in this). I mean it's just awful. And we never truly know (despite the hearings) what went on with Yavanovitch as it came across (with respect to the danger) as an "it is what it is" response directly from the CiC. I mean, her life was already at risk just given the circumstances surrounding Ukraine and Russia relations and the elections there, and most career ambassadors seem to understand the circumstances specific to their assignments, but that situation was clouded by the WH intentionally.

I agree that Trump does not seem eager to start foreign wars.

Yep, and who the hell really knows what gov't's do today that we never see, and wouldn't dream they would do.  Nothing surprises me today beyond who wins, and loses sporting events.

#566
39 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Massive thread bump here, although I must say that @hpslugga's post above is rather on point for 2020 in America.

Ran across this in the morning news and um it's a little concerning:

I'm becoming so jaded by Trump and his people, that I'm torn between believing that she is a target by Iranian govt vs our own (as a sacrificial lamb). It is awful to even consider but here we are 2020. Where re-election desperation has no boundaries.

Pre-election Hail Mary from Vlad?

  • 1 year later...
  • 1 year later...
#575
With a hard work ethic Inshallah the U of M will return to its glory days.

Lol. I guess he’s happy tonight. 

  • 2 years later...
#578
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah…it’s powerful because she’s hot.

You could even say "smokin'"

#579

For context, the higher estimates of the death toll from the Tiananmen Square massacres are in the ~10K range.

Tucker Reals: Over 12,000 feared dead after Iran protests, as video shows bodies lined up at morgue

Information trickling out of Iran on Tuesday suggests that a crackdown by authorities to end more than two weeks of widespread anti-government protests has likely been far more deadly than activists outside the country have reported. With phone lines opening back up for calls from inside the Islamic Republic, two sources, including one inside Iran, told CBS News on Tuesday that at least 12,000, and possibly as many as 20,000 people have been killed.

Britain's Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said in Parliament on Tuesday that the U.K. government believed there "may have been 2,000 people killed, there have been more. My fear is that the number may prove to be significantly higher." The truth has been incredibly difficult to piece together due to Iran's hardline rulers cutting off internet access and phone service in the country for the last five days. While a complete internet shutdown in Iran remained in place for a fifth day, some Iranians were able to make phone calls out of the country on Tuesday, though it was still not possible to call into Iran from outside.

A source inside Iran who was able to call out told CBS News on Tuesday that activist groups working to compile a full death toll from the protests, based on reports from medical officials across the country, believed the toll was at least 12,000, and possibly as high as 20,000. The same source said security forces were visiting the many private hospitals across Tehran, threatening staff to hand over the names and addresses of those being treated for injuries sustained in the protests.

CBS News has not been able to independently verify the massive death toll indicated by the source, which is some many times larger than the numbers reported by most activist groups independently in recent days — though those groups have always made it clear that their tallies are likely underestimated. The opposition Iran International television network said Tuesday that its information suggested about 12,000 people were killed.

A source in Washington with contacts in Iran told CBS News on Tuesday that a credible source had told him the toll was likely between 10,000 and 12,000. Iranian officials have not provided regular official estimates of overall deaths from the unrest. Reuters quoted an unnamed Iranian official Tuesday as saying about 2,000 people had been killed since the protests began on Dec. 28, and blaming the violence on foreign influenced "terrorists," even suggesting that agitators had been paid to foment chaos.

CBS News has verified that video posted online Tuesday shows the bodies of at least 366 and likely more than 400 people killed amid the protest piled up at a morgue in a Tehran suburb. The video appears to show forensic personnel documenting gruesome injuries on the bodies, and crowds of people seemingly trying to identify the dead. The injuries visible are extensive and include gunshot wounds, "birdshot" shotgun wounds, gashes and other severe injuries.

New video shows badly injured bodies lined up at morgue

An Iranian activist and blogger who identifies himself only as Vahid Online first posted the shocking 16-minute clip. Vahid said it was sent to him from a source who traveled about 600 miles to upload the video amid the communications blackout. The graphic video shows people with what appear to be injuries caused by bullets and shotgun pellets, as well as other wounds, and piles of bloody clothing inside the morgue compound.

The protests — which drew warnings of a U.S. military intervention by President Trump — were sparked in late December by anger over a new spike in the cost of living in Iran's sanctions-hobbled economy. They quickly grew into mass rallies in all of Iran's 31 provinces, with tens of thousands of people chanting for the downfall of the country's Islamic rulers.

Even the lower death toll reported by Cooper in Britain on Tuesday, if confirmed, would surpass any officially reported casualty figure from past anti-regime protests in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which brought the current government to power.

When Mr. Trump was asked Tuesday how many people have been killed in the protests in Iran, he responded, "Nobody's been able to give me an accurate number." Mr. Trump warned multiple times as the protests escalated last week that if the Iranian regime killed protesters, the U.S. would take action, without ever specifying a red line that might prompt a response, or what the response might be.

President Trump tells Iranian protesters help is on the way

"Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY," Mr. Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday. Again he offered no details about what help the U.S. might provide to Iran's long-stifled domestic opposition.

The president's national security team was scheduled to hold a meeting at the White House on Tuesday to discuss his options, according to several sources familiar with the matter. It was unclear whether the president himself would attend. He has been briefed on a wide array of military and covert tools that could be used against Iran, well beyond conventional airstrikes, according to two Pentagon officials who spoke to CBS News on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

A crackdown "much worse than we can even imagine"

"The information that we are receiving shows that the violent crackdown [against] the protests has probably been much worse than we can even imagine," said Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, who leads the Norway-based activist organization Iran Human Rights. "The whole international community's red lines have been crossed," said Amiry-Moghaddam. "We have a mechanism called responsibility to protect civilians against grave human rights violations, against mass killings … so not only [the] United States, not only President Trump, but the European Union, basically all countries have a responsibility to stop these atrocities."

He didn't call for U.S. military action, but urged world powers to "provide Iranians with more means to communicate with the world, because this is what the regimes do — they shut off the internet. Basically, it's like solitary confinement. They put Iranian people into solitary confinement and start torturing and killing them." He told CBS News his organization had received a video Monday night showing the aftermath of one purported attack by security forces that left 75 people dead in Mazandaran province, about a three-hour drive north of Tehran.

Amiry-Moghaddam said he could not share the video or specific town where the alleged assault occurred as the information "can be tracked," and would thus endanger his sources. "This is what indicates that the extent has been much worse than we anticipated," said Amiry-Moghaddan. Internet access and text messaging services were still blocked in Iran on Tuesday, leaving largely in place the blackout initiated on the evening of Jan. 8, when thousands of people appeared to heed a call by Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to make their voices heard.

The protests — and the security forces' action against them — appeared to escalate sharply for a couple of days from that evening. On Tuesday, Iran's police chief claimed the protests had been ordered from outside the country and that "terrorists" paid to cause unrest had been confronted inside Iran.

Iranians want "anyone who can remove the Islamic Republic"

Amiry-Moghaddan told CBS News many Iranians wouldn't believe that narrative from their leaders. "Iranian people are so fed up with the regime, and so desperate to come out of this system," he said. "I remember that I used to ask many people, with different backgrounds, 'Who would you support?' And all of them basically say that we would support anyone who can remove the Islamic Republic. Iran is a country with a lot of different kinds of people, different opinions. Some would like to have monarchies, some are opposed to monarchy, but I think the priority is to remove this regime."

Pahlavi has said he's ready to return to lead Iran, despite not having been there since his father, the U.S.-backed shah, fled almost 50 years ago amid intense public outrage over his rule. He told CBS News' Norah O'Donnell on Monday that the Iranian people "need action to be taken." "The best way to ensure that there will be less people killed in Iran is to intervene sooner, so this regime finally collapses and puts an end to all the problems that we are facing," he said.

Pahlavi said he has communicated with the Trump administration, but he didn't reveal any details of those conversations. Amiry-Moghaddan said an "absolute majority" of Iranians "don't want the regime, like more than 80%." But he said that 80% was "roughly divided into three groups, those who would like to have [the] shah's son, those who oppose a monarchy, and those who haven't made up their minds."

Untited2.jpg

Edited by satyanash

#581
3 hours ago, satyanash said:

For context, the higher estimates of the death toll from the Tiananmen Square massacres are in the ~10K range.

As mentioned in the other thread, there's no coming back from this and the people know it. If they don't overthrow the current regime, and the regime gets their shit together, they will be hunting down and killing tens or even hundreds of thousands of these people.

#582

Jared Malsin: The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin

The biggest harbinger that things were about to fall apart in Iran didn’t come from the thwarted anger of the country’s opposition or the frustrated hopes of young people hungry for more personal freedom. It came from the collapse of a bank. Late last year, Ayandeh Bank, run by regime cronies and saddled with nearly $5 billion in losses on a pile of bad loans, went bust. The government folded the carcass into a state bank and printed a massive amount of money to try to paper over all the red ink. That buried the problem but didn’t solve it.

Instead, the failure became both a symbol and an accelerant of an economic unraveling that ultimately triggered the protests that now pose the most significant threat to the regime since the founding of the Islamic Republic half a century ago. The bank’s collapse made clear that the Iranian financial system, under strain from years of sanctions, bad lending and reliance on inflationary printed money, had become increasingly insolvent and illiquid. Five other banks are thought to be similarly weak.

The crisis hit at the worst possible time. The Iranian government’s credibility had already been battered by a 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June that showed it couldn’t defend its population from attack. Its leaders had refused to budge in negotiations over the country’s nuclear program, putting sanctions relief out of reach. In November, Israel and the U.S. threatened to strike again if Iran tried to reconstitute its ballistic missile arsenal or nuclear efforts.

The country’s beleaguered currency, the rial, tipped into a new downward spiral the country had little ability to stop. U.S. enforcement actions had cut Iran off from its crucial flow of dollars from Iraq, significantly reduced its hard currency earnings from oil sales and put its overseas reserves of foreign exchange out of reach with sanctions.

After decades of engineering workarounds and using shadowy flows of cash to keep the country’s battered economy functioning, Tehran had reached a dead end, with no tools to address a deepening economic crisis or meet the needs of an increasingly desperate population. Hundreds of merchants, who don’t typically join the country’s mass protests, took to the streets of Tehran to demand relief.

“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt et cetera, which underscored that the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” said Adnan Mazarei, a former deputy director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund. The failure of the bank added to what he called “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”

Ayandeh Bank was founded in 2013 by Ali Ansari, an Iranian businessman who merged two state-owned banks with another he founded previously to form the new lender. He hails from one of the country’s richest families and owns a multimillion-dollar mansion in north London. Politically, he is seen as close to former conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The U.K. sanctioned Ansari last year just days after the collapse of Ayandeh, calling him a “corrupt Iranian banker and businessman” who helped finance the sprawling Iranian elite paramilitary and business organization, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In a statement in October, Ansari blamed the bank’s failure on “decisions and policies made beyond the bank’s control.” Ayandeh offered the highest interest rates of any Iranian bank, attracting millions of depositors and borrowing heavily from the central bank, which printed money to keep the institution afloat, economists said. Like other troubled Iranian banks, Ayandeh had a large number of nonperforming loans, one of a range of factors that eventually drove it to failure.

Its largest investment was the Iran Mall, which opened in 2018. The project displayed an opulent excess that made little sense amid the stagnation in the rest of the Iranian economy. Twice the size of the Pentagon, the mall is a city within a city with its own IMAX movie theater, a library, swimming pools and sports complexes, along with indoor gardens, a car showroom and a hall of mirrors modeled on a 16th century imperial Persian palace.

Economists and Iranian officials said the project was an example of self-lending, in which Ansari’s bank effectively lent money to his own companies. When it folded, a report in the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, citing a top central bank official, said that more than 90% of the bank’s resources were tied up in projects under its own management. Ayandeh came under scrutiny for years from some conservative and reformist politicians who pushed for the bank’s closure and argued that the central bank’s support for the institution would drive up inflation due to its need to print money to fund it.

Those calls reached a fever pitch late last year. Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, publicly called on the central bank in October to take action, threatening on social media to take legal measures if the banking authorities didn’t step in. The central bank announced the bank’s dissolution the next day. The government took on the bank’s debts and forced it to merge with the country’s largest state-owned lender, Bank Melli.

At least five other Iranian banks are now facing a similar fate, according to economists and a statement from a central bank official last year. Those include the state-owned Bank Sepah, one of the largest in the country, which had previously absorbed other failed banks. The director of bank supervision at the Iranian central bank last year called Ayandeh “a Ponzi scheme.” For many Iranians, it was a symbol of a system whose few resources had been diverted to a well-connected few while they suffered.

“It’s yet another example of the kinds of stories of corruption or unfair practices that give a lot of ordinary Iranians the impression that the system has been rigged against them, or at least rigged in the favor of a small number of elite,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, an economic think tank.

Ayandeh was at the heart of what economists say was a broader crisis in the financial system that accelerated following the reimposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018. Lacking funding, Iranian banks have relied on borrowing from the central bank through an emergency liquidity mechanism that charged high interest rates but lent money without requiring collateral. The banks then invested the funds unwisely, often lending to connected elites to engage in speculation and big construction projects.

The central bank printed money to fund the loans, which banking officials and economists have long warned was creating an inflationary cycle and weakening the currency. The result was a shaky financial system dependent on the state at a time when Iran was about to be hit with a series of increasingly severe shocks: waves of sanctions, the fall of regional allies like Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria, and direct conflict with Israel and the U.S. As of 2019 the government effectively controlled about 70% of Iran’s banking system, according to an analysis by Mazarei, the former IMF official.

Ayandeh’s collapse set off alarm bells. “It reinforced the sense that the banking system is very, very fragile and vulnerable,” Mazarei said. “If something goes wrong, it will come back to the public purse.”

Iran’s economic collapse was years in the making but unfolded rapidly in recent months. The national currency lost 84% of its value compared with the dollar in 2025. Food prices rose at an annual rate of 72%, nearly double the average in recent years. The country is also dealing with an energy and water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian has proposed moving the capital out of Tehran and closer to the Indian Ocean coast.

Wages didn’t keep up, and the fast-rising prices pushed ordinary Iranians to a breaking point. People said they could no longer afford food. With the value of the rial dropping by the hour, shop owners couldn’t figure out how to set prices. Importers were losing money even before they could put their goods up for sale. “The Iranian middle class has been destroyed,” said a 43-year-old female artist and Tehran resident. “When you can no longer even try to obtain food, you have nothing left to lose.”

While the government was spending money to wind down Ayandeh, it was cutting support for the public. The budget proposed by the government in December included a number of austerity measures. It called for the elimination of a favorable exchange rate for imports, the removal of some bread subsidies, and for imported gasoline to be sold at market prices.

In all it proposed cutting $10 billion in government support for the public and key interest groups like importers, according to an analysis by Bijan Khajehpour, a managing partner of the Vienna-based consulting firm Eurasian Nexus Partners. The budget was officially presented to parliament on Dec. 23, but rumors of the coming wave of austerity circulated beforehand, stirring concerns about further economic pain at a time when the rial was already falling.

Economists said this growing financial crisis came to a head at the same time that a perfect storm of pressure—tightening international sanctions, the fallout of last year’s war with Israel and years of economic mismanagement—was sapping the government’s ability to address it. Worsening U.S. and European sanctions have forced Iran’s oil industry to rely on an international “shadow fleet” of tankers to export its products, meaning that more oil revenue flows into the hands of middlemen and less into the state’s coffers and the wider Iranian economy.

A U.S. crackdown on money laundering by Iraqi banks deprived Iran of one of its most important sources of dollars. Iraqi banks had been known as the “lungs” of the Iranian financial system, giving liquidity to Iran’s otherwise isolated banks. The June war with Israel also delivered a severe shock that left the government with the need to increase defense spending to rebuild its own military capabilities and shore up allies like Hezbollah.

Military pressure began to rise again late in the year after a six-month respite. The U.S. and Israel warned of new strikes over Iran’s missile program, a threat punctuated by the American raid on Caracas to seize Venezuela’s president in early January. Anxieties about a new attack accelerated a flight of capital from Iran that began during last summer’s 12-day war with Israel. Iranians dumped the rial and moved their money into foreign currency, gold and assets such as cryptocurrency.

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an economist at Virginia Tech, estimated Iran’s total capital flight last year at between $10 billion and $20 billion, creating what he called “a bad situation that does not seem tenable.” An energy crisis resulting from a shortage of natural gas starting in 2024 caused long power outages. The cuts came despite the country’s vast oil and gas wealth and called into question the government’s risky, decadeslong effort to enrich uranium for what it said was a peaceful nuclear energy program. The growing power cuts, worsening water shortages and increasingly worthless currency fueled an impression among many Iranians that the state was beginning to fail.

The government tried to mollify protesters by introducing a monthly cash subsidy of 10 million rials per person—about $7, though it goes further in Iran—and vowing to crack down on price gougers. Iran’s central bank governor resigned in late December and was replaced by Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former minister of economy, who had been impeached by parliament last year as the country fell into its currency crisis.

It didn’t work. Protests got under way at the end of the year and escalated for two weeks, spreading to dozens of cities around the country. Thousands protested in recent days despite an internet blackout and a toughening government crackdown in which hundreds of people have been killed, according to human rights groups.

Whatever happens with the protests, the stress on the regime from deep-seated internal financial problems along with heavy pressure from outside isn’t going away. “If they could spend their way out of it they would have done that before, and they wouldn’t have had to resort to this kind of violence,” said Erik Meyersson, the chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB. “That really makes things more difficult for the regime.”

#583

The regime does find itself in a bit of a pickle it hasn't been in before.

"Stop protesting our we'll kill you."

"My dudes. We can't buy food, and much of Iran is running out of water. We're already dead. So your threats don't exactly carry the weight they might have once had."

Angry about liberty and freedom is one thing. Anger about not being able to eat is quite another.

#584
15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

As mentioned in the other thread, there's no coming back from this and the people know it. If they don't overthrow the current regime, and the regime gets their shit together, they will be hunting down and killing tens or even hundreds of thousands of these people.

Total wishcasting. The people inside Iran are not going to overthrow the regime. It ain't happening until there is an actual organized and powerful opposition with a realistic vision for the future. And right now, they have absolutely nothing.

The only threat to the Islamic regime is Trump and Netanyahu bombing the hell out of the country.

#585
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Total wishcasting. The people inside Iran are not going to overthrow the regime. It ain't happening until there is an actual organized and powerful opposition with a realistic vision for the future. And right now, they have absolutely nothing.

The only threat to the Islamic regime is Trump and Netanyahu bombing the hell out of the country.

I don't think it's quite that simple. A populist uprising can cause the regime's leadership to flee, leaving a vacuum. Now, the fact that there is not cogent opposition means that vacuum could be really shitty and last a while and Iran could descend into a civil war (based in part on ethnic factions) is entirely possible.

In short, you're not entirely wrong, but you're not entirely right. Having a real opposition might help move things forward, but having hit a critical mass of population with nothing to lose is a unique problem for the regime.

#586
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't think it's quite that simple. A populist uprising can cause the regime's leadership to flee, leaving a vacuum. Now, the fact that there is not cogent opposition means that vacuum could be really shitty and last a while and Iran could descend into a civil war (based in part on ethnic factions) is entirely possible.

In short, you're not entirely wrong, but you're not entirely right. Having a real opposition might help move things forward, but having hit a critical mass of population with nothing to lose is a unique problem for the regime.

People inside Iran have seen what has happened to Iraq and Syria. They know things can get worse, that there is more to lose. That's the problem and why the critical mass hasn't happened. Also there is a massive disconnect between people living in Iran and the diaspora who haven't set foot in their homeland in decades. This is only something that I've fully realized recently, so I'm not trying to be some smartass. But something has felt really off for me about this for years, and now I see it.

Also, the Ayatollah will not flee. Any reports of that are complete bullshit.. They stay in Iran and die in Iran. That is their religious duty.

#587

Jon Gambrell: Iran signals fast trials and executions for protesters

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s judiciary head signaled Wednesday there would be fast trials and executions ahead for suspects detained in nationwide protests despite a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump. The comments by Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei came as activists had warned hangings of those detained could come soon. The security force crackdown on the demonstrations has killed at least 2,500, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported. The current death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades and recalls the chaos surrounding the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Trump has repeatedly warned that the U.S. may take military action over the killing of peaceful protesters, just months after it bombed Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day war launched by Israel against the Islamic Republic in June. Iran meanwhile has threatened it could make a preemptive strike after alleging without offering evidence that Israel and the United States orchestrated the protests. A U.S. official said some personnel at a key U.S. military base in Qatar have been advised to evacuate by Wednesday evening, a decision that came as a senior official in Iran brought up an earlier Iranian attack there.

A mass funeral also was held Wednesday for some 100 security force members killed in the demonstrations. Tens of thousands of mourners attended, holding Iranian flags and photos of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The caskets, covered in Iranian flags, stood stacked at least three high. Red and white roses and framed photographs of people who were killed covered them. People elsewhere remained fearful in the streets. Plainclothes security forces still milled around some neighborhoods, though anti-riot police and members of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force appeared to have been sent back to their barracks.

“We are very frightened because of these sounds (of gunfire) and protests,” said a mother-of-two shopping for fruits and vegetables, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. “We have heard many are killed and many are injured. Now peace has been restored but schools are closed and I’m scared to send my children to school again.” Ahmadreza Tavakoli, 36, told The Associated Press he witnessed one demonstration in Tehran and was shocked by the use of firearms by authorities.

“People were out to express themselves and protest, but quickly it turned into a war zone,” Tavakoli said. “The people do not have guns. Only the security forces have guns.”

‘We have to do it quickly’

Mohseni-Ejei’s comments about rapid trials and executions were made in a video shared by Iranian state television online. “If we want to do a job, we should do it now. If we want to do something, we have to do it quickly,” he said. “If it becomes late, two months, three months later, it doesn’t have the same effect. If we want to do something, we have to do that fast.”

The comments stand as a direct challenge to Trump, who warned Iran about executions an interview with CBS aired Tuesday. “We will take very strong action,” Trump said. “If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action. We don’t want to see what’s happening in Iran happen. And you know, if they want to have protests, that’s one thing, when they start killing thousands of people, and now you’re telling me about hanging — we’ll see how that works out for them. It’s not going to work out good.”

One Arab Gulf diplomat told the AP that major Mideast governments had been discouraging the Trump administration from launching a war now with Iran, fearing “unprecedented consequences” for the region that could explode into a “full-blown war.” The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to journalists.

Satellite internet service offer

The demonstrations began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, as the country’s economy is squeezed by international sanctions in part levied over its nuclear program. Iran’s government cut off the country from the internet and international telephone calls on Jan. 8. Activists said Wednesday that Starlink was offering free service in Iran. The satellite internet service has been key in getting around an internet shutdown launched by the theocracy on Jan. 8.

Iran began allowing people to call out internationally on Tuesday via their mobile phones, but calls from people outside the country into Iran remain blocked. “We can confirm that the free subscription for Starlink terminals is fully functional,” said Mehdi Yahyanejad, a Los Angeles-based activist who has helped get the units into Iran. “We tested it using a newly activated Starlink terminal inside Iran.” Starlink itself did not immediately acknowledge the decision.

Security service personnel also apparently were searching for Starlink dishes, as people in northern Tehran reported authorities raiding apartment buildings with satellite dishes. While satellite television dishes are illegal, many in the capital have them in homes, and officials broadly had given up on enforcing the law in recent years.

#588

Let's put it this way, the reason this time "feels different" for Iranians is mainly because Trump is President.

Most Iranians in the West love Trump and think he's enough of a madman/authoritarian to get the Islamic regime out. The country has terrible political culture and instincts, so it makes sense they look at Trump as a savior.

#589
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

People inside Iran have seen what has happened to Iraq and Syria. They know things can get worse, that there is more to lose. That's the problem and why the critical mass hasn't happened. Also there is a massive disconnect between people living in Iran and the diaspora who haven't set foot in their homeland in decades. This is only something that I've fully realized recently, so I'm not trying to be some smartass. But something has felt really off for me about this for years, and now I see it.

Also, the Ayatollah will not flee. Any reports of that are complete bullshit.. They stay in Iran and die in Iran. That is their religious duty.

Solid observation. The disconnect between much of the diaspora (particularly the American portion) and the population in Iran seems quite material. But I wonder about whether critical mass has or hasn't happened (with limited info, it's hard to tell). Again, what's MAYBE different now is that so many are in the "we have nothing left to lose" position.

Starving your people gets governments deposed. That's been a thing for a long, long time.

Just now, satyanash said:

Jon Gambrell: Iran signals fast trials and executions for protesters

That could work to suppress the movement.....or it could tell them "you're dead already, they're going to kill us if they stay in power, so we have no choice but to depose them." A message from the regime of "when this is over, I'm going to kill you" is a strong motivator for the intended victims to not stop until the regime is deposed. I mean, you just told me that I'm dead if I resist, I'm dead if I capitulate....I might as well try for the third option: make you dead/gone FIRST.

#590
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Starving your people gets governments deposed. That's been a thing for a long, long time.

True. But the Iranian people and government are deeply ingrained with Shi'ism. I'm no history buff, but I think the fact that religion is so embedded makes this an outlier.

#591
4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

True. But the Iranian people and government are deeply ingrained with Shi'ism. I'm no history buff, but I think the fact that religion is so embedded makes this an outlier.

I confess that as an outsider, I don't know how true that is today. Recent (2022) polling seems to indicate that religion/religious fervor is not nearly as strong a cultural motivator as it was 47 years ago.

#592

The Pahlavi "movement" is a farce. I've been hearing this shit for years, assumed there was something to it. Nope.

The dude is a total joke, just a bunch of propaganda to pretend people inside Iran want him to lead.

#595

pentagon moving the abraham linkoln cvn-72 from the south china sea to the middle east. Iran just issued a NOTAM (air space closure), Germany just told all german airlines not to fly in or around iran.

#596
4 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

pentagon moving the abraham linkoln cvn-72 from the south china sea to the middle east. Iran just issued a NOTAM (air space closure), Germany just told all german airlines not to fly in or around iran.

Rumors it will be within 24 hours (strikes, not the carrier group, that'll take a week or so).

Trump was out there saying he was assured there were no executions while the Iranians were executing people openly, so now he once again looks like a fucking idiot but he actually gets the chance to bomb those who embarrassed him.

#598

How mavy countries do you have to attack / takeover to win the Nobel Peace Prize? Asking for a friend

Edited by Fastbreak

#600
33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Rumors it will be within 24 hours (strikes, not the carrier group, that'll take a week or so).

Trump was out there saying he was assured there were no executions while the Iranians were executing people openly, so now he once again looks like a fucking idiot but he actually gets the chance to bomb those who embarrassed him.

Let's face it. There's a pretty good chance he's intentionally going to carpet bomb the protesters. If he does, the muftis might withdraw their fatasswah though.

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