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Featured Replies

Iowa also played a pretty good IU team while ISU played a pretty good FCS team.  Not completely apples to apples but I see your point.  It just always seems ISU chokes in this game.

That’s not far from the truth, I was very surprised to see that isu has never been fav in recent memory. Vegas has been within the hook two of last 3 mtgs and the other was a Iowa clinching TD with 4 min left.

Not saying isu is a lock but this has all the makings of proof Vegas gives no fucks about ‘even money’ on both sides that’s always thrown around. They’re in the biz of making the most money possible.
  • Author
1 minute ago, Hook1997 said:

Way to go Surly consensus pick!

I was starting to get nervous in the 4th but I was silly to doubt the collective wisdom in this thread.

LFG.

3-0 this week. 

 

My stone cold lock of next week is Texas -6 or minus -6.5. I think we cover all games leading up to OU then we will have to see what it’s at.  Everyone is understanding this team right now and we will get back to the days of coving spreads vs bad teams.  
 

I also just gave a aggie guy I know double the spread at -12 for a $100….  Cause he wouldn’t stop taking shit.  He said we had a 50/50 chance of beating Ark I said well that a even line then put your money where your mouth is, he wouldn’t obviously. His excuse was I only bet on aggy, I said if you feel confident at all even have the balls to bet me doubling the line atleast and he finally caved.  

Edited by Hook1997

Way too much unknown to jump on Texas this early as a stone cold lock. Texas still isn’t good enough to overcome multiple mistakes and this one is on the road.

  • Author

I actually do like us a lot at -6.5 but my new personal rule is that I don't touch UT or A&M games anymore.  I am a mental midget and my reasoning is so easily clouded by my obvious bias.

12 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

My stone cold lock of next week is Texas -6 or minus -6.5. I think we cover all games leading up to OU then we will have to see what it’s at.  Everyone is understanding this team right now and we will get back to the days of coving spreads vs bad teams.  
 

I also just gave a aggie guy I know double the spread at -12 for a $100….  Cause he wouldn’t stop taking shit.  He said we had a 50/50 chance of beating Ark I said well that a even line then put your money where your mouth is, he wouldn’t obviously. His excuse was I only bet on aggy, I said if you feel confident at all even have the balls to bet me doubling the line atleast and he finally caved.  

my stone-cold lock of the week last week should have been Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions, but I only noticed it about 5 minutes before kickoff, as I rarely even look at cfb player props. Sadly, I didn’t have much available in the online account at the time, so I couldn’t really pound it. I think he grabbed his 3rd in the second  qtr, so it wasn’t a sweat, but surprisingly Bijan only ended up with 4 on the day. I'll be looking for it this week if they offer the same wager, as I think sark's gonna continue to look for ways to get him the ball in open field.

I really don’t like us this week at all. Our oline was pretty much dogshit vs lala (we played behind the chains way too much) and I tend to believe a hostile atmosphere’s biggest impact is on a visitors oline… communication, extra juice for d line, and generally speeding things up. This is not even mentioning none of our qb’s playing away yet or that the scheme is still new.

Arky O has a few players, and our LB will be tested by a bigass running qb and very quick RB.

Not saying we lose, but ark+ would be my play.

  • Author

Aight, will see how long my luck can last.  Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4.

  • Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas
  • NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State
  • Liberty v Troy O61.5
  • Army v Western Kentucky U52

image.png.52f83a02a0fa04dc765b8739218fa754.png

May put down something on NC State that is an interesting one.

Coastal Carolina is that that good? That's a ton of points

19 hours ago, closetohumping said:

When do Bear and Steve's picks come out?

You gonna do the opposite of what they say?

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  • Author
27 minutes ago, Zeus said:

image.png.52f83a02a0fa04dc765b8739218fa754.png

May put down something on NC State that is an interesting one.

Coastal Carolina is that that good? That's a ton of points

They beat Kansas in Kansas by 15 points last year in their opener after being a 5 win team in 2019.  They return something like 20 starters and reached another level by the end of the season.  I think they’re solid and I think Kansas is that bad.

I'm on CCU big tonight.  They're going to beat Kansas by 30+.  

Also on Army big tomorrow. Playing at home on 9/11 anniversary, Army will cover.

Early games.
Ten +4

Ok St -12

Org +14.5

Western Kentucky Army over 52, guy I went to high school’s kid is WK QB and transferred from Houston Baptist his stats have been unreal and Army will run all over them. 

ECU +3

let’s go!

Edited by Hook1997

i wanted to bet tennessee, but saw they were missing 4 key players.  i really don't like anything early on.  trying to find something.

1 hour ago, Revolution512 said:

I took the Aggy at -17, Colorado is ass

 

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On 9/8/2021 at 8:10 PM, bluto said:

Our game, under 56 locked in

Agree on the under in our game. Don't see how Ark gets to their expected point total of 25.

Edited by pacman

On 9/7/2021 at 1:05 PM, Blotto said:

my stone-cold lock of the week last week should have been Bijan Robinson over 2.5 receptions, but I only noticed it about 5 minutes before kickoff, as I rarely even look at cfb player props. Sadly, I didn’t have much available in the online account at the time, so I couldn’t really pound it. I think he grabbed his 3rd in the second  qtr, so it wasn’t a sweat, but surprisingly Bijan only ended up with 4 on the day. I'll be looking for it this week if they offer the same wager, as I think sark's gonna continue to look for ways to get him the ball in open field.

Fuuuuuuuuck....-145 odds. Guess I'll see if they adjust it closer to gametime

image.thumb.png.1a5dfb6bdc861ead41ed49841813d919.png

I’ll take my medicine on Iowa state… eff Casey Thompson’s running ability though costing me the under.

Went ahead and took Ole Miss/Lou U75.5.
Already locked in some week 2 bets:
-Iowa + 3.5 v. ISU
-Colo +17 v. aggy
-Horns -6
Added Iowa ML late so 3-1 this week, 6-1 for the season.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

Ok I'm done for the season lol

Screenshot_20210912-133856__01.jpg

  • Author
On 9/8/2021 at 8:21 PM, 40acredropout said:

Aight, will see how long my luck can last.  Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4.

  • Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas Covered By 2
  • NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State Lost by 16.5
  • Liberty v Troy O61.5 Lost by 27.5
  • Army v Western Kentucky U52 Lost by 21
  • LATE ADD-  U56.5 Tennessee v. Pitt Lost by 18.5

I returned to earth this week lol.  Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks.

That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.

7 minutes ago, 40acredropout said:

I returned to earth this week lol.  Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks.

That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.

Does betting on these obscure games make it where ya want to watch them? I try to watch a lot of ball but those games were not on the must see list lol

  • Author
1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Does betting on these obscure games make it where ya want to watch them? I try to watch a lot of ball but those games were not on the must see list lol

Definitely.  Some of my favorite CFB moments in last few years have been non-marquee to obscure weeknight games I bet (see Tulsa hail mary against Tulane or 2018 Egg Bowl).  It's not by design but upside is it often working out to where I have something I'm interested in watching all day.  

Early Week 3 and I only have these so far but will look to add more:

Mich St +6.5 vs. Miami (This is just a Manny _iaz fade)

Purdue +7 vs. ND (ND has looked like trash and their win against FSU is pretty much meaningless now)

Lines that intrigue me but I haven't touched:

Neb +22 vs. OUsux
VT +3 vs. WVU
UF +15.5 vs. Bama
SCe +30.5 vs. UGA
Aub +6 vs. PSU
OSU -26.5 vs. Tulsa

Thoughts?


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The books will obviously adjust, but through two weeks here are the biggest over and under achievers vs the line according to espn

Worst underachievement vs. closing line through two weeks, 2021

Navy: 53 points
Ohio: 52.5
Georgia State: 51.5
Georgia Southern: 47.5
Washington: 43
Iowa State: 36.5
Louisiana: 34.5
Oklahoma State: 32.5
Vanderbilt: 31.5
Rice, Washington State: 31
Colorado State, UConn, Northwestern: 30.5

Greatest overachievement vs. closing line through two weeks, 2021:

Rutgers: 40 points
Iowa: 38.5
Utah State: 37.5
Georgia: 36
Army: 32.5
Michigan: 31
Marshall, Virginia: 30

 

  • Author
19 hours ago, Assman said:

Mich St +6.5 vs. Miami (This is just a Manny _iaz fade)
Neb +22 vs. OUsux

These are circled on my "looks interesting at first glance" list but I actually ended up on other side as you.

I can't argue with logic of a _iaz fade but I actually like Canes here (as someone who watched neither of their games this year).  MSU seems very mediocre to me and their win against NW doesn't impress as that team lost about everything from last year (which admittedly they also beat that squad to be fair).  Alabama was Alabama and App State actually had 10 starters back from what was a top 20 defense by most metrics.  I think Miami offense looks more like what it looked like last year and has no trouble scoring and I don't really believe MSU can keep up (a bottom 20 offense last year by most metrics).  

It does seem like a lot of points when you look at OU v Tulane game but I expect OU offense to finally be clicking and I have absolutely zero confidence in an Aaron Martinez led offense.  I really just think Nebraska is dog shit, which maybe is adequately baked in at 22 but I could see this being a beat down.

I don't see Nebraska hanging around whatsoever with ousux, nor do I see Bama having any issues covering their number. I am not betting on ousux bc I refuse to enjoy any benefit from their success, but I am laying the points with Bama and I doubt it is ever even close. 

  • Author

Yep, I got my card for the week.  Looks like multiple differences of opinion within the thread this week.

  • Liberty - 27 v Old Dominion
  • Wake Forest -6 v Florida State
  • Alabama -15.5 @ Florida
  • OU -22 v Nebraska
  • Miami -6.5 v Michigan State
  • UCF -7 @ Louisville (I actually regret placing this one)

Didn't realized until I placed my bets that I didn't pick a single dog.  I'm probably succumbing to some simpleton gambling fallacy but whatever, let it rip.

Edited by 40acredropout

i'm on ohio +19 tonight and teased lousiville +13 and over 61 tomorrow night.

I like the under tonight in Ohio ULaLa. Feels like a 30-14 kind of game. 

Did a three team 6 point teaser for tonight and tomorrow. 
Ohio +24.5

Louisville  +12.5 

Maryland -1

Oh and on Alabama A&M -4 straight. 

Edited by Hook1997

3 hours ago, TornACL said:

I like the under tonight in Ohio ULaLa. Feels like a 30-14 kind of game. 

Billy Napier can get fucked. 

Now that AZ had legal sports betting what’s the best onshore option?  I use mybookie right now but their cost seem a little high.  

Maryland -7 

Feel pretty good about this one after reading up a bit.  

Illinois got handled pretty easily by Virginia last week, and I think they will get slapped around again this week by Maryland.

The Terrapins only allowed 24 points to West Virginia and they have a much better offense than the Illini do. Maryland scored 30 points on WVU also, and again, a better defense than Illinois.

The Illini defense currently ranks 227th in passing defense, 158th in rushing defense, and 182nd in points allowed. That’s awful.

 

I’m new to sports betting. Just got a my bookie account last year.

Using betonline and mybookie this season.

My bets this week

Sparty +185

VA +8

Marshall -10

kansas +17.5

Edited by drifter379

UCF just hosed my teaser with Maryland. Wow. They make the best play of the game and just need 3 but throw the pick 6. My god. 

went with nebraska tt over 20.5 and a mich st +13, va tech +8 tease for the early slate.

WV -2

Wake Forest -4.5

Tex, Ok, Alabama  in a ten point teaser.  

Here's my crazy parlay for the day, 25:1.   Counting on ND being trash again. Looking good so far with Mich St since Diaz is a disaster.   

 

Michigan State +6½-110MICHIGAN STATE vs MIAMI FLORIDAGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Oklahoma -22-115NEBRASKA vs OKLAHOMAGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Texas A&M -28½EvNEW MEXICO vs TEXAS A&MGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 12:00 pm
Colorado -2-110MINNESOTA vs COLORADOGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 01:00 pm
Purdue +7-105PURDUE vs NOTRE DAMEGame Date: Sep 18, 2021 - 02:30 pm

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