Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

On 10/17/2022 at 8:35 PM, Cousin Strawberry said:

PPP fraud is what is driving a lot of this inflation.  The companies screening those applicants did zero due diligence.  

How exactly is PPP fraud driving up consumer goods, gas prices, etc.?

 

  • Replies 8.2k
  • Views 481.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

Posted Images

On 10/13/2022 at 11:45 AM, Incredulity said:

of course, its a highly regressive tax on low income earners.

 

 

concern troll is concerned about the poors.

 

 

On 10/17/2022 at 6:47 PM, Biff Tannen said:

 the revolution when the poors fight back. 

 

lol

 

 

7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

We've had this discussion.

Posting corporate profits in dollar terms is nonsensical.  As a % of GDP corporate profits are in a similar range as they have been.

The Evolution of U.S. Corporate Profits_2.pdf (pficdn.com)

image.thumb.png.b82c00009f47060e9887c3ed0b73ef9e.png

Quote

Yet, economics is about trade-offs: corporate profits’ increased share of GDP has been roughly offset by a decline in employee wages, which have fallen from 56% of GDP from 1970 through 2000 to around 53% over the past decade. In tandem, the share of capital has surged from 18% to over 21%. Stated differently, earnings that now amount to roughly $600 billion a year have been transferred from labor to capital.1

Next bullshit lie please.

Edited by Brian Fantana

So I take it you want to return to the 50's.

What happened in 2000? 

I'll answer for you, the start of low interest rate and QE infinity policy. 

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

So I take it you want to return to the 50's.

What happened in 2000? 

I'll answer for you, the start of low interest rate and QE infinity policy. 

Why don't you respond to the questions?

Your question?

Do I need to post a graph of GDP growth in constant dollars?  Cliffs: it matches the OHMGRD corporate profits graph.

  • Popular Post
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

We've had this discussion.

Posting corporate profits in dollar terms is nonsensical.  As a % of GDP corporate profits are in a similar range as they have been.

this is simply not true.  here is a chart i just made with the FRED data for GDP, GDP per Capita, and After Tax Corporate Profits.

2044668765_Screenshot2022-10-19132254.thumb.png.2d35118879d7d3b0d1b879ea70d4c69d.png

and here it is on a comparison basis.

706457103_Screenshot2022-10-19133814.thumb.png.0696fadc989e4059c77bba5ca1f02514.png

even if one allows for a ton of friendly accounting adjustments for inventory and capital consumption the average from 1930 to 2020, the average was 5.2%.  2021 was 8.4% (the first time since before the great depression it was over 7.6%) and 2022 will likely be over 9%. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=42211#snid=42228

so no, your obfuscating talking point is factually erroneous.  we are in uncharted, extraordinary times in terms of corporate profits...not just on a nominal basis, but also relative to GDP.

Edited by sidis

this is what you are looking for as it takes into account tax policy.

fredgraph.png?g=UQNC

like i pointed out...it was 8.4% in 2021.  it will be over 9% in 2022.  That is a significant departure from historical numbers averaging 5.3%.

Edited by sidis

the postwar average is 5.6%.  one standard deviation on that is 1.1%. 8.4% is nearly 3 standard deviations away.  so, yes, it is significant.

 

and on a 23 trillion dollar economy that is a bit over $4,000 per employed worker. 

Edited by elfenix

14 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

no its not.

most expect the 2022 to register at ~9.5%.  from 1931 to 2020, the average was 5.3% with a max of 7.6% and a standard deviation of 1.4%.

you don't believe that three standard deviations to the right of the mean of a pretty normally distributed population (and more than a standard deviation greater than the previous maximum) is statistically significant?

okay.  seems productive to continue arguing with a delusional system.

eta: just to close this whole silly argument off, if corporate profits as a percentage of gdp achieves its near century long average of 5.3% of anticipated 2022 gdp of $22.79 trillion, that would mean that after tax corporate profits would be $1.21 trillion.  if it achieves 9.5% that is anticipated, that would be the equivalent of $2.16 trillion.  so nearly a trillion dollars more of profits (equivalent to 20% of the federal government's budget) is not "significant."  even if it is (conservatively) 8.4% like last year, that would represent more than $700 billion more in profits.  for someone pretending to freak out about 5-10% yoy inflation in the cpi, one would think that an 60-80% inflation in corporate profits would be considered "significant."

Edited by sidis

I'll reply for him:

But it's only like 3% LULZ that's not that much LULZ owned libtard

Profits after tax isn't the appropriate measure of corporate performance/"greed".  Specifically in the context of the 2017 tax change.

 

 

  • Popular Post

"we rewrote the laws to benefit ourselves but you can't consider that when discussing how much we're fucking you over"

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

Profits after tax isn't the appropriate measure of corporate performance/"greed".  Specifically in the context of the 2017 tax change.

 

 

so now the rent seeking behavior of corporations that the republican party has been championing since 1980 in creating significant tax benefits to themselves, as well as driving how said corporations perform their corporate finance/accounting/treasury activities no longer have any impact on economic outcomes for those corporations?

natalie-dormer-eating.gif

sure, jan.  it's kind of a big part of the point.

  • Popular Post

It's like watching someone die on this page.

12 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Profits after tax isn't the appropriate measure of corporate performance/"greed". 

 

 

Why not?

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Why not?

It's just remarkable.  The data are there in every chart, and yet he still tries to hand-wave away the obvious. 

Joe Shylock’s IRS goons at it again. This time raising the tables for income tax and the standard deduction in order to give you strong, patriotic, supporters of capitalism more money to feed your fat, precious children. Along with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, the lowest unemployment rate ever for Hispanics, and the highest wage growth YoY that I won’t be checking for truth

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/19/irs-here-are-the-new-income-tax-brackets-for-2023.html

7 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Joe Shylock’s IRS goons at it again. This time raising the tables for income tax and the standard deduction in order to give you strong, patriotic, supporters of capitalism more money to feed your fat, precious children. Along with the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, the lowest unemployment rate ever for Hispanics, and the highest wage growth YoY that I won’t be checking for truth

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/19/irs-here-are-the-new-income-tax-brackets-for-2023.html

But they hired 80,000 new auditors to arrest hard working Americans!!!!!11!!1

No, they didn't.  The vast majority of those new positions are low end jobs like customer support, but Rs won't let those facts get in the way either.  Facts schmacts.

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

It's like watching someone die on this page.

and they don't even know it. sad.

A strong contender for dumbest poster on the board, but tbf there's a lot of competition

Edited by trauma babe

5 hours ago, landman said:

How exactly is PPP fraud driving up consumer goods, gas prices, etc.?

 

Fraud or not, it was a monetary injection of dubious need/value. It's about the same amount as the stimulus checks to individuals, but mostly benefited businesses.  In theory, it was intended to maintain payrolls and keep jobs.  But again, fraud or no, I don't think it had that intended effect.

Edited by TwiceHorn

10 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Fraud or not, it was a monetary injection of dubious need/value.

It was badly needed by many businesses.  Specifically restaurants and hospitality industry that was completely shut down.  Others not so much, there was very little done to discern between the two.  Frankly I don't blame any business who took PPP.  I said at the time that I was sure there would be clawbacks and significant need tests.  That was obviously dead wrong.

It is absolutly inflationary, every half ass business got significant cash liquidity.  Seeing as they are run by US citizens they spent it, just like citizens did with the direct checks.

2 hours ago, sidis said:

so now the rent seeking behavior of corporations that the republican party has been championing since 1980 in creating significant tax benefits to themselves, as well as driving how said corporations perform their corporate finance/accounting/treasury activities no longer have any impact on economic outcomes for those corporations?

natalie-dormer-eating.gif

sure, jan.  it's kind of a big part of the point.

Not so much that as it relates to the topic in the OP.  "Corporate Profits are causing Inflation"

In a tax policy discussion, absolutely.

5 hours ago, landman said:

How exactly is PPP fraud driving up consumer goods, gas prices, etc.?

 

I literally can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not. 

40 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

almost forgot about doocy. fucking clown

58 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Not so much that as it relates to the topic in the OP.  "Corporate Profits are causing Inflation"

In a tax policy discussion, absolutely.

Well then you need to remove the inventory and capital consumption adjustments as well and the analysis would be on the nominal basis reflected in the two charts I created above. 

4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

It's like watching someone die on this page.

Incredulity is swam?

7 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

image.thumb.png.b82c00009f47060e9887c3ed0b73ef9e.png

 

6 hours ago, Incredulity said:

So I take it you want to return to the 50's.

What happened in 2000? 

I'll answer for you, the start of low interest rate and QE infinity policy. 

I'll play. First post on CR, I think, and I only read the last 3 pages...

What happened in 2000?

I used to think that Y2K was the reason for so many ills in our economy in that it gave the IT community access to the highest levels of corporate America. Over time, I realized that innovation and riding the tech wave increased our efficiency in damn near everything, resulting in much higher productivity and ultimately, corporate profits.

I never saw the cost/benefit of paying 4X for an Apple computer over a Microsoft based clone. Still don't.  I took my high school age son shopping at the Apple store in 2006, and was overwhelmed by so many happy people who couldn't wait to tell me about their great products. Didn't buy anything that day, but I bought Apple stock the next day. Ding, Ding, Ding!!! WINNER!!!

Over the last 10-15 years, I migrated from investing in Oil & Gas (my profession) to high tech ($$$).  Apple was making train loads of cash with iphones (no risk) v. O&G, which is arguably the highest risk profession there is. Taking Oil & Gas, boosting it to high pressure, and putting a fire under is the definition of risk. 

Fast forward, and over time, my salary, the "Labor Share" on the graph, was secondary to my investment earnings (savings, 401k, IRA, Roth, etc.), the "Profit Share" on the graph. That statement probably holds true for everyone who is not dependent on a government paycheck. Every pension fund, not government related, his heavily invested in the stock market, and every contributor to every pension fund is by definition,  invested in the stock market.

Corporate Profits are not a bad thing. Those profits trickle down to individual investors and pension funds, who pay their share of taxes.  

So, the solution is call the Tech company management before congress, and ultimately, kill the geese that were laying golden eggs. Well done.

Re: stimulus checks.

Lets see, Covid disrupts everything, people can't/don't work, supply chain issues, same amount of people chasing fewer goods and services, supply and demand fundamentals go to work, and prices start rising. 

Some people, those forced out of the workplace, needed help. I get that.

But a lot (most?) of people didn't, they were able to work remotely. But everyone got a check, whether they needed it or not.

Inject Trillions of $$$ into a supply challenged economy, and now we have a whole lot more money chasing good and services that were already in high demand, superheating the economy, and inflation explodes.

Combining those two events, crushed profit margins and out of control inflation, and we went from our best economy ever to dogshit in a few short years.  I got a few $ from my stimulus checks in return for my life's savings getting crushed.  Whoppee shit!

I think that applies to most of America. 

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

Corporate Profits are not a bad thing. Those profits trickle down to individual investors and pension funds, who pay their share of taxes.  

again-there-you-go-again.gif

It's piss that's trickling down, not gold. 

  • Popular Post

Still over here chuckling about someone coming into CR to make their first post and it's stanning trickle down economics. Wild.

And saying it's just Big Tech's profits that are the problem?

And saying it's just Big Tech's profits that are the problem?

Well, I mean, here’s the thing. Big Tech is innovators, they are the American dream, they are the pinnacle of capitalism and freedom and the American flag rendered in 1’s and 0’s. You dirty libs should stop hating on them.

Also, Big Tech won’t let people disseminate videos produced in Moscow stating that Joe Biden is an actual lizard who steals elections with mind control rays purchased by (((soros))), so, the government definitely has to regulate Big Tech.

From the outside, you can’t understand it, from the inside, you can’t explain it.

I would need to know the cost of turning barrels of crude into gallons of gasoline in 2010 vs now before I render a decision on that tweet. 

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

again-there-you-go-again.gif

It's piss that's trickling down, not gold. 

image.png.3e3d9b19cdcbbc7fa17e595155f7742c.png

Call it what you will, but the market cap of the just the FAANG stocks has risen almost $3 Trillion in ~ 20 years.

A significant portion of that value increase is shared by the majority of pension funds, 401k's, and numerous individuals who have chosen to invest in these particular stocks.

Those "obscene corporate profits" have resulted in a proportionate increase in stock value, meaning each individual investor has realized a proportionate increase in their investments.

One share of Apple in 2006 was ~ $35/share, and has split 7 for 1 in 2014 and 4 for 1 in 2020, giving you 28 shares from your original 1 share. Your $35 original investment in 2006 is worth over $4,000 today.

Perhaps characterizing a 100 fold increase in value as a trickle is not the correct term.

TIL that Surly can boast of posters, @Incredulity and @PTINS, who claim superior understanding of corporate profit to poor Mike Konczal, director of macroeconomic analysis, at the Roosevelt Institute.


 

Edited by Willfully Horn

some normies get some scraps so everything is good in @PTINS book

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Well, I mean, here’s the thing. Big Tech is innovators, they are the American dream, they are the pinnacle of capitalism and freedom and the American flag rendered in 1’s and 0’s. You dirty libs should stop hating on them.

Also, Big Tech won’t let people disseminate videos produced in Moscow stating that Joe Biden is an actual lizard who steals elections with mind control rays purchased by (((soros))), so, the government definitely has to regulate Big Tech.

From the outside, you can’t understand it, from the inside, you can’t explain it.

Plus, they donate almost exclusively to the preferred party.  So posting profit margins that make O&G majors blush is completely fine.  No gouge, no mention, no problem.  

13 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

and they don't even know it. sad.

They know it, they just ignore it and lie...and it wins them election after election.  And it will end in fascism.  

10 hours ago, PTINS said:

Oil & Gas (my profession)

Those profits trickle down to individual investors 

I think that applies to most of America. 

image.gif.0313a77a397077ae94c9fe8a660ef0fd.gif

9 hours ago, PTINS said:

image.png.3e3d9b19cdcbbc7fa17e595155f7742c.png

Call it what you will, but the market cap of the just the FAANG stocks has risen almost $3 Trillion in ~ 20 years.

A significant portion of that value increase is shared by the majority of pension funds, 401k's, and numerous individuals who have chosen to invest in these particular stocks.

Those "obscene corporate profits" have resulted in a proportionate increase in stock value, meaning each individual investor has realized a proportionate increase in their investments.

One share of Apple in 2006 was ~ $35/share, and has split 7 for 1 in 2014 and 4 for 1 in 2020, giving you 28 shares from your original 1 share. Your $35 original investment in 2006 is worth over $4,000 today.

Perhaps characterizing a 100 fold increase in value as a trickle is not the correct term.

Nobody gives a fuck, dumbass. None of this benefits the average American worker. Go fuck yourself in the face.

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.