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  • Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

  • jimmyjazz
    jimmyjazz

    I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

  • Grade of D as in David
    Grade of D as in David

    Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

Posted Images

86" this year recorded along AL gulf coast this year.

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

In before drought.
Thanks a lot, La Niña!

Except at your house. It will be a rain forest. 

18 hours ago, miguelito said:

It's never going to rain again. 

This guy gets it.

You'd think we might have gotten a drop or two with a serious cold front running roughshod into 81 degree, muggy weather.  Not even a hint.  

There is nothing in the forecast for much of Texas over the next week.

p168i.gif?1641227481

Yeah that front had 40-50% chances a few days before... and then poof.

I believe it was an old, old wooden ship that was used during the Civil War era.

 

On 1/2/2022 at 10:25 AM, phdhorn said:

In before drought.
Thanks a lot, La Niña!

This is not the content I came here for. 
 

furk. 

On 1/3/2022 at 10:32 AM, Hate said:

There is nothing in the forecast for much of Texas over the next week.

p168i.gif?1641227481

Please come to West Houston this morning and explain that to me again.  

9 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

Please come to West Houston this morning and explain that to me again.  

Houston doesn’t count 

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Houston doesn’t count 

Yeah we get 50+” a year. “It’s gonna rain” forecast is always in the cards, even when it’s not. 

Edited by UT_OB1

Sleetin'

Yeah, WTF, I'm getting light rain mixed with tiny sleet

 

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

Is it too much to ask for something more than this drizzle to help wash out the cedar pollen?

Austin might be the weirdest place on earth for rain. At the end of the year it's rained 35 inches, but it never seems like it fucking rains. We're nearly a month in the year and had 0.1" of rain? And today's 80% chance of rain has turned into... pffffft.

In NE Austin, I haven't had a thorough rain (the kind that actually wets the soil) since one time in October. And I don't recall getting anything significant in September. 

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Austin might be the weirdest place on earth for rain. At the end of the year it's rained 35 inches, but it never seems like it fucking rains. We're nearly a month in the year and had 0.1" of rain? And today's 80% chance of rain has turned into... pffffft.

Because it comes in 2-4" dumps with a lot of nothing in-between.

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Because it comes in 2-4" dumps with a lot of nothing in-between.

And it seems to always rain in the middle of the night.

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

And it seems to always rain in the middle of the night.

Especially the most severe stuff.  That was the case in Houston... the most screwed up flooding-type rain loved to arrive at night just to screw up your sleep.

Some models are seeing a potential big rainmaker for SE Texas on Monday.

file.php?id=18561&t=1

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

Some models are seeing a potential big rainmaker for SE Texas on Monday.

file.php?id=18561&t=1

10 inches of rain in Lake Jackson. Zero in Austin. 

Par for the course.

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

10 inches of rain in Lake Jackson. Zero in Austin. 

Par for the course.

David Byrne Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

What the cuss happened to the rain chances on Friday in Austin?  For a week, long-term forecasts had it well above 50%, now it's 20% isolated AM showers.  Which don't make a shit.  

Will Monday at least pan out for us?  

There is a joke abut an old West Texan who bet his friends that it would never rain again and ended up collecting from two of them.

I wouldn't say you get nothing.  The NWS doesn't seem as bullish about the rain as some of the weather models, but they are usually pretty conservative until just a couple of days before the event.

p168i.gif?1643341173

Good rain for Austin Monday.

Less but at least some rain for Austin Wednesday.

Wed. freezing precip gets close, but nah.

Then it gets cold for 3-4 days, like last week (40's-20's in ATX area).

The end.

Edited by phdhorn

Any word on La Nina? Sticking around for a while?

On 1/28/2022 at 10:07 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Any word on La Nina? Sticking around for a while?

Usually a late fall/winter thing, so the forecast for the rest of the winter is... it's starting to weaken as expected, but could last through April in some forms.  Here is ENSO's latest summary:

image.png.8fa0474cdf477dd7fd639ca02bf69e48.png

I think most of the rain is past us now, however there could be another lighter wave as the atmosphere heats up this afternoon.  In any case should be all outta here for the rest of the evening.

Then we wait - for the Cold of Death.

I thought the rain was past but it is just dumping now in NE Travis County

 

Edited by Paper_jam

17 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

I thought the rain was past but it is just dumping now in NE Travis County

 

Pouring in NW Travis as well.

  • Author
7 hours ago, phdhorn said:

In any case should be all outta here for the rest of the evening.

image.gif.e1332d221b4f9a28398a198d6eae984a.gif

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

image.gif.e1332d221b4f9a28398a198d6eae984a.gif

Hmmm... Wrong on the amount but right on the time of day (quote the sentence before the one you did). Probably poor use of  preposition but you have to get to an evening in order to have the "rest of" it (I posted that just after noon).  Should have said something like "out of here by later this evening." In fact Zach Shields my man at channel 7 was the only weather guy I heard call it correctly. So I sort of us6e his forecast but called for less rain.

So I'll take half your money not the whole thing.

Edited by phdhorn

  • 3 weeks later...

Watch your anoose in the Red River Valley this afternoon.

day1otlk_1300.gif

And watch your anoose in the Mississippi Valley tomorrow.

day2otlk_0700.gif

@phdhorn what are the odds that the rain forecasted for SE Tx on Thursday fizzles out?  I got people lined up to get a roof installed and inspected that day. 

1 minute ago, Hate said:

821cbdd550e8a0d82d243612c8629f7b.jpg

Figures…

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