Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

East of I-35  and north of I-10 probably won't get a drop, but the models are trending westward. The earlier models had most of the rain in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  They have been gradually shifting south and west over the last few days.  We'll see, but most likely the Houston area will get 100 inches of rain and the Hill Country will get nothing...and like it.

file.php?id=19037&mode=view

Edited by Hate

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Views 211k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

  • jimmyjazz
    jimmyjazz

    I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

  • Grade of D as in David
    Grade of D as in David

    Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

Posted Images

Those precip maps look perfect to disappoint everyone along and west of 35 with yet another a last minute shift east or NE (more progressive).

That’s been the trend all spring…I think we’re turbofucked once the death ridge sets up shop this summer (last 2 weeks a preview) but hopefully not.
 

7 hours ago, Jersey Man10 said:

I went to the car wash for the first time in a month so you’re welcome if it rains.

+1 here

Way longer than a month for me though. 

11 minutes ago, Hate said:

Latest GFS model.

gfs_apcpn_us_40.png

 

Come to Butthead | Beavis and butthead quotes, Funny faces, Funny memes

 

 

Haven't washed my truck in over a year.  Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.  

27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Haven't washed my truck in over a year.  Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.  

do it jewish GIF

we handwashed both cars on sunday.  come at me bro.

so is this thing next week happening or what?

Hot damn. As much as I'd love a thorough soaking around here, 13 inches falling in the LCRA watershed would be a godsend. Doubt it'd be quite enough to fill all of em, but it could be close if it fell in the right spots.

Those modes 100% tell me west Austin and the Hill Country will get nothing and like it. Houston watch your cornholes

From Sean Belafiore KWTX Waco- he agrees with the outlook for next week.

 

The weather pattern turns unsettled starting on Sunday depending on where the front stalls. If the front stalls south of our area, we’ll be expecting a mostly dry day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The storm system moving through next week starts to arrive late Sunday and will send waves of off-and-on showers and storms through our area through at least early Wednesday and potentially even longer. The rain will of course keep highs down into the upper 70s and low 80s but we could be dealing with just a bit too much rain all at once. As the periodic heavy rainfall moves through, we’re expecting widespread rainfall totals near 2″ with isolated higher totals 3″-4″+ certainly possible. There could also be a bullseye of 6″ of rain somewhere in Central Texas but it’s far too early for any specificity like that. Although most model data continues to ramp up next week’s rain chances and rainfall totals, I’ll urge a bit of caution. While multi-inch rain totals are trending upward, next week’s rain isn’t a slam dunk just yet.

Latest GFS and Euro models. Let’s hope the GFS is the more accurate model.

9bc0b6ba1702bf7b0ca15e385969f599.jpg
68e1a262ed6f46bfa0e4b5735e65dc82.jpg

I hope we get gobs of rain until Thursday then that needs to stop for 3-4 days.

37 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I hope we get gobs of rain until Thursday then that needs to stop for 3-4 days.

Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend...

16 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend...

It's OK... we're next to a creek.  What could possibly go wrong?  

Home Swept Away as Flooding Hits Upstate New York

Probably confirmation bias but the euro model runs way superior of whatever we put out.

They’ve been aces over the years 

Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?

I can tell you that the weather apps on my phone are extremely accurate.  If they say it's going to rain, it won't.  If they say it won't rain, it will.

4 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?

If the GFS rain models are anything like their future hurricane models, then that graphic is a load of shit.

8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread?

This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM.

https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197

Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.

  • Popular Post
3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.

 

81246548.jpg.0.thumb.jpg.6f9317558fc9e2e58bcb2e461b3e748f.jpg

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

Edited by Loop 1604

47 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

I'll take 1-2" (TWSS), but the hill country really needs to be hit. 

1 hour ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

It depends.  IF I'm not mistaken, wasn't it the GFS that absolutely nailed the Big Freeze in '21?  EURO seems to do better on precip and GFS does pretty damn well on sweeping lows.   

You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. 

Current drought conditions:

 

san_drought?_a=AJAEtWI0

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

31 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

I may thumb my nose at them and go for a mountain bike ride. Or maybe go wash the truck. 

3 hours ago, miguelito said:

You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. 

Current drought conditions:

 

san_drought?_a=AJAEtWI0

Holy shit.

2 hours ago, boknowstecmo said:

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

Enough to trigger my weather apps to say drizzle starting soon, even though I know it's bullshit.

  • Author

Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.

My kids' Camp Allen experiences also usually included rain.  They said everyone just went wild in the mud and made a huge mess.  Best part of the week.

  • Author
21 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Not rain but got a good 8" of snow here last night.

19727550-FBF7-47B2-A02E-8CDDF0668571.jpeg

It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole?

Things are looking better for the Hill Country.

6f22bdb450967f442e485dd810139d99.gif

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole?

Denver - late snowstorm here last night 

10 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Boobie clouds over Boerne. 

20220521_181952.thumb.jpg.fb13812b0592d1ca056533dcc570e8b6.jpg

For an assman, those look like ass cheeks

Cloudy windy and rainy hear in Hewitt.  Knock on wood we might miss the purple stuff

27 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Cloudy windy and rainy hear in Hewitt.  Knock on wood we might miss the purple stuff

image.gif.1d21081937fc81dcedd9ee778c78e6ec.gif

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.