May 19, 20223 yr East of I-35 and north of I-10 probably won't get a drop, but the models are trending westward. The earlier models had most of the rain in Oklahoma and Arkansas. They have been gradually shifting south and west over the last few days. We'll see, but most likely the Houston area will get 100 inches of rain and the Hill Country will get nothing...and like it. Edited May 19, 20223 yr by Hate
May 19, 20223 yr Those precip maps look perfect to disappoint everyone along and west of 35 with yet another a last minute shift east or NE (more progressive). That’s been the trend all spring…I think we’re turbofucked once the death ridge sets up shop this summer (last 2 weeks a preview) but hopefully not.
May 19, 20223 yr 7 hours ago, Jersey Man10 said: I went to the car wash for the first time in a month so you’re welcome if it rains. +1 here Way longer than a month for me though.
May 19, 20223 yr Haven't washed my truck in over a year. Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.
May 19, 20223 yr 27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said: Haven't washed my truck in over a year. Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.
May 19, 20223 yr Hot damn. As much as I'd love a thorough soaking around here, 13 inches falling in the LCRA watershed would be a godsend. Doubt it'd be quite enough to fill all of em, but it could be close if it fell in the right spots.
May 19, 20223 yr Those modes 100% tell me west Austin and the Hill Country will get nothing and like it. Houston watch your cornholes
May 19, 20223 yr From Sean Belafiore KWTX Waco- he agrees with the outlook for next week. The weather pattern turns unsettled starting on Sunday depending on where the front stalls. If the front stalls south of our area, we’ll be expecting a mostly dry day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The storm system moving through next week starts to arrive late Sunday and will send waves of off-and-on showers and storms through our area through at least early Wednesday and potentially even longer. The rain will of course keep highs down into the upper 70s and low 80s but we could be dealing with just a bit too much rain all at once. As the periodic heavy rainfall moves through, we’re expecting widespread rainfall totals near 2″ with isolated higher totals 3″-4″+ certainly possible. There could also be a bullseye of 6″ of rain somewhere in Central Texas but it’s far too early for any specificity like that. Although most model data continues to ramp up next week’s rain chances and rainfall totals, I’ll urge a bit of caution. While multi-inch rain totals are trending upward, next week’s rain isn’t a slam dunk just yet.
May 19, 20223 yr Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread? This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM. https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197
May 19, 20223 yr 37 minutes ago, texasdago said: I hope we get gobs of rain until Thursday then that needs to stop for 3-4 days. Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend...
May 19, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, utee94 said: Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend... It's OK... we're next to a creek. What could possibly go wrong?
May 19, 20223 yr Probably confirmation bias but the euro model runs way superior of whatever we put out. They’ve been aces over the years
May 19, 20223 yr Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?
May 19, 20223 yr I can tell you that the weather apps on my phone are extremely accurate. If they say it's going to rain, it won't. If they say it won't rain, it will.
May 20, 20223 yr 4 hours ago, SquishMitten said: Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride? If the GFS rain models are anything like their future hurricane models, then that graphic is a load of shit.
May 20, 20223 yr 8 hours ago, bolverk said: Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread? This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM. https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197 Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.
May 20, 20223 yr Popular Post 3 hours ago, NorthLoop said: Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year. Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.
May 20, 20223 yr Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range. The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out. Edited May 20, 20223 yr by Loop 1604
May 20, 20223 yr 47 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said: Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range. The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out. I'll take 1-2" (TWSS), but the hill country really needs to be hit.
May 20, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Loop 1604 said: Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range. The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out. It depends. IF I'm not mistaken, wasn't it the GFS that absolutely nailed the Big Freeze in '21? EURO seems to do better on precip and GFS does pretty damn well on sweeping lows.
May 20, 20223 yr You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. Current drought conditions:
May 20, 20223 yr Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again.
May 20, 20223 yr 31 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said: Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. I may thumb my nose at them and go for a mountain bike ride. Or maybe go wash the truck.
May 20, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, miguelito said: You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. Current drought conditions: Holy shit.
May 20, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, boknowstecmo said: Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. Enough to trigger my weather apps to say drizzle starting soon, even though I know it's bullshit.
May 21, 20223 yr Author Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.
May 21, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, South Austin said: Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome. My kids' Camp Allen experiences also usually included rain. They said everyone just went wild in the mud and made a huge mess. Best part of the week.
May 21, 20223 yr Author 21 minutes ago, 6th Street said: Not rain but got a good 8" of snow here last night. It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole?
May 21, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, South Austin said: It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole? Denver - late snowstorm here last night
May 21, 20223 yr 10 minutes ago, miguelito said: Boobie clouds over Boerne. For an assman, those look like ass cheeks
May 22, 20223 yr 27 minutes ago, Post Oak said: Cloudy windy and rainy hear in Hewitt. Knock on wood we might miss the purple stuff
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