Jump to content
View in the app

A better way to browse. Learn more.

Surly Horns

A full-screen app on your home screen with push notifications, badges and more.

To install this app on iOS and iPadOS
  1. Tap the Share icon in Safari
  2. Scroll the menu and tap Add to Home Screen.
  3. Tap Add in the top-right corner.
To install this app on Android
  1. Tap the 3-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of the browser.
  2. Tap Add to Home screen or Install app.
  3. Confirm by tapping Install.

Featured Replies

Last 30 minutes map... figures.

image.png.440d9127b7156ca8ea4fc15aff1bcb76.png

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Views 211k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Most Popular Posts

  • Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

  • jimmyjazz
    jimmyjazz

    I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

  • Grade of D as in David
    Grade of D as in David

    Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

Posted Images

Chances of it hitting 100° today are... not so good...

Tomorrow is forecasted to be the first day with the high below 90, in three months.

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

It would be better if you played at Bushwood.

But gambling is illegal at Bushwood, sir.

5 hours ago, utee94 said:

Those are still really low streamflows.  When we get the major flooding events that generate noticeable changes in lake levels, those go up into the hundreds, and thousands, of CFS.

Yeah. I’m a dumb dumb. Thought I was looking at water level numbers, not CFS

35 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Wait, wut? 5?

Just in case this isn’t sarcasm, yes. Probably the heaviest downpour I’ve ever witnessed. 

Lamar blocked at 9th - in front of Shoal Creek Saloon.  I hope there was ample rain above the Highland Lakes.

1.82 in so far in Manchaca.

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Yep. It's almost like watching a woman take off her bra for the first time.

chuck-norris-approved.gif

Shit came right at us, dissipated when it hit the town and just a light rain. FUCK

Flash flood warning for Austin Central till 7:15.

 

"I'm sick of all this rain, I wish it would dry up and we could get some sun and warm weather!!"

-Surly

29 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

Lamar blocked at 9th - in front of Shoal Creek Saloon.  I hope there was ample rain above the Highland Lakes.

Some but not enough.  Lake Travis recharge zone hasn't gotten much.  Buchanan and the others got some decent rain but it's soaking in and not running off.

Now that all of those areas have been primed with rain, if they got hit with ANOTHER heavy downpour within the next couple of days,  then we'd probably see at least some modest increases in lake levels.

Edited by utee94

Worst traffic getting out of downtown since the pandemic -- felt like the beforetimes. 

2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Oh shit. I just got 1.25" in about 20 minutes.
 

thats-what-she-said-what-she-said.gif

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

"I'm sick of all this rain, I wish it would dry up and we could get some sun and warm weather!!"

-Surly

tumblr_mvzl95sAid1s2gg27o1_400.gif

this was my rain gauge near Bull Creek/2222A34171C5-58ED-4E72-BA8E-C162A0CE666F.thumb.jpeg.888752c84e3001acc881de368ae4d154.jpeg

4.5” (all came down in about an hour too). 
 

Christian Bale GIF by PeacockTV

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Some but not enough.  Lake Travis recharge zone hasn't gotten much.  Buchanan and the others got some decent rain but it's soaking in and not running off.

Now that all of those areas have been primed with rain, if they got hit with ANOTHER heavy downpour within the next couple of days,  then we'd probably see at least some modest increases in lake levels.

A 12” or 15” deluge in the Travis recharge watershed would make it rise what…. 10 feet? 15 feet?

Fuck. This. Shit. 

Screenshot_20220822-184754_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.6e21f4d7355ea623c8a76247648e6d5c.jpgScreenshot_20220822-180102_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.99815c74882565602b0da7d88066b7ff.jpg

Screenshot_20220822-182618_MyRadar.jpg

Edited by NorthLoop

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Fuck. This. Shit. 

Screenshot_20220822-184754_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.6e21f4d7355ea623c8a76247648e6d5c.jpgScreenshot_20220822-184754_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.6e21f4d7355ea623c8a76247648e6d5c.jpgScreenshot_20220822-180102_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.99815c74882565602b0da7d88066b7ff.jpg

Screenshot_20220822-182618_MyRadar.jpg

Same just north of you bro. Put all my plants out and barely anything. 

3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Fuck. This. Shit. 

Screenshot_20220822-184754_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.6e21f4d7355ea623c8a76247648e6d5c.jpgScreenshot_20220822-180102_MyRadar.thumb.jpg.99815c74882565602b0da7d88066b7ff.jpg

Screenshot_20220822-182618_MyRadar.jpg

New Braun fels? More like No Rain Falls

Living the lake travis forcefield life. Got maybe 0.10".  Lame event so far. Work flooded and my drive home to the desert was an adventure so I have that going for me.

8 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

AccurateTartDrake-max-1mb.gif

Pics were a fast flowing White Rock Creek that clearly had breached with some silt/debris but was back in line by the lunch workout hour. Then I got this:

image.thumb.png.17a59c376694f69614ae4f919da49b7b.png

Sooo, not complaining since I got a good bit of rain earlier, but wasn’t the prediction that we’d get most of our rain tonight? Weather apps all showing that we aren’t getting any more. WTF? That earlier line screw up everything?

1 hour ago, hornian said:

this was my rain gauge near Bull Creek/2222A34171C5-58ED-4E72-BA8E-C162A0CE666F.thumb.jpeg.888752c84e3001acc881de368ae4d154.jpeg

4.5” (all came down in about an hour too). 
 

Christian Bale GIF by PeacockTV

Got just over 4” down the street from you

Gimme more in the morning. I hate to be greedy but my ground has taken a lot of rain, and soaked it right up with no problem. Only hint of standing water is at the gutter downspouts. Means it’s still thirsty. 

Update:

Yeomans (KXAN) put it well tonight:  next 2-3 days is a "sloppy" forecast.

That's because rain, and lots of it, is still very much in the picture.  There's a slow-moving disturbance leaving a weak front behind it.  But, that front's still potent enough to do what it did today for 95% of us in ATX.   But he problem is that no one can really tell where the front will park - where it does, underneath it, gobs of rain.  It moved through Dallas yesterday, Austin and east today, but now it can stall and even move back north - or more south.  That's the slop.

Still, another little disturbance is coming into the picture and it'll interact with that front.  The result:  high chances of rain (>70%) the next 2 days.  Much of it is gone tonight, but don't get cozy - models are showing a thunderstorm outbreak 3-4 a.m. right in the ATX area.  Even if that fizzles, it'll certainly whip back up tomorrow.  Widespread flooding is still not out of the picture, never mind the flash flooding (Shoal Creek today had it's 4th highest crest - EVER! - in less than an hour from essentially being a rock bed!).

I'll come back to try and give a better idea tomorrow where the rain falls, as the sun heats up and shows the trigger point  plus with the possitility of more flooding, I'll try to stay on top of it.  ironically, 50 miles one way or another won't get squat.  But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie. 

Longer range, the end of August is more like the end of April, and September is shaping up to start cool and wet.  If the big heat comes back, it'll have to do it well into the first week of Sept.

We might get one of our top 10, even close to #1, rainiest August's ever.

Bet you didn't think that would happen 2 weeks ago.  Weather, she be funky an' shit.

More later.

32 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:

Yeomans (KXAN) put it well tonight:  next 2-3 days is a "sloppy" forecast.

That's because rain, and lots of it, is still very much in the picture.  There's a slow-moving disturbance leaving a weak front behind it.  But, that front's still potent enough to do what it did today for 95% of us in ATX.   But he problem is that no one can really tell where the front will park - where it does, underneath it, gobs of rain.  It moved through Dallas yesterday, Austin and east today, but now it can stall and even move back north - or more south.  That's the slop.

Still, another little disturbance is coming into the picture and it'll interact with that front.  The result:  high chances of rain (>70%) the next 2 days.  Much of it is gone tonight, but don't get cozy - models are showing a thunderstorm outbreak 3-4 a.m. right in the ATX area.  Even if that fizzles, it'll certainly whip back up tomorrow.  Widespread flooding is still not out of the picture, never mind the flash flooding (Shoal Creek today had it's 4th highest crest - EVER! - in less than an hour from essentially being a rock bed!).

I'll come back to try and give a better idea tomorrow where the rain falls, as the sun heats up and shows the trigger point  plus with the possitility of more flooding, I'll try to stay on top of it.  ironically, 50 miles one way or another won't get squat.  But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie. 

Longer range, the end of August is more like the end of April, and September is shaping up to start cool and wet.  If the big heat comes back, it'll have to do it well into the first week of Sept.

We might get one of our top 10, even close to #1, rainiest August's ever.

Bet you didn't think that would happen 2 weeks ago.  Weather, she be funky an' shit.

More later.

Funk GIFs | Tenor

3 hours ago, hornian said:

this was my rain gauge near Bull Creek/2222

4.5” (all came down in about an hour too). 

LCRA is showing 2.66" just up the road.  Our back yard (wet weather "creek") was roaring, I'm more inclined to believe your number.

Need much more.

32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

LCRA is showing 2.66" just up the road.  Our back yard (wet weather "creek") was roaring, I'm more inclined to believe your number.

Need much more.

I drove home during the storm. At the first bridge over Bull Creek (Spicewood Springs) it was kind of raining. By the second bridge, it was raining hard, and by the third it was pouring, but over the low water crossing it was sheets of rain. But if the band hit just right, I'd actually believe the gauge had half the rain that our streets did, because further North on 360 it was not raining nearly as hard. 

  • Author
10 hours ago, phdhorn said:

But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie.

spacer.png

Update:

Not much from my last post.. but the front has stalled south of us about the I-10 corridor.  They'll get the big rains today.  However, Austin is sort of on the north end of this zone, so (as we've seen already today) rain is still likely around a lot of the area, even if not heavy.  No TV weather honk has predicted that the front will move north again (bringing us potentially flooding rains) but that's always a possibility.

There's not a lot out on the radar now beyond what's fallen this morning, but that can be deceiving.  Stuff will pop up as the sun gets going.  

My guess is a cloudy day with only short periods of light/moderate rain.  If the front moves north or we get a lot of lift going, I'll be back.  Otherwise enjoy the fun.  If it stays like this it might not even get much into the 80's, but I think enough sun will pop through that we get near or just over 90°.

And not a 100 in sight for at least 5 more days.  The meteorological season has changed for sure although of course we could easily get hot/dry and over 100 again... but we're done with the marathons.  (Meteorological fall starts Sept. 1).

I'm right at 2 inches (TWSS) of rain in the month of August just east of Pflugerville.  It has added zero to my tank, I think my fish are going to have to grow lungs or die.  It's so frustrating because you watch the radar and it's like watching a rerun of 2008 Tech, you keep hoping the ball gets caught and, yet, are always disappointed

20 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

I'm right at 2 inches (TWSS) of rain in the month of August just east of Pflugerville.  It has added zero to my tank, I think my fish are going to have to grow lungs or die.  It's so frustrating because you watch the radar and it's like watching a rerun of 2008 Tech, you keep hoping the ball gets caught and, yet, are always disappointed

Too soon.

1 hour ago, Catpfish said:

I'm right at 2 inches (TWSS) of rain in the month of August just east of Pflugerville.  It has added zero to my tank, I think my fish are going to have to grow lungs or die.  It's so frustrating because you watch the radar and it's like watching a rerun of 2008 Tech, you keep hoping the ball gets caught and, yet, are always disappointed

Right there with you.  About a block north of Lake Pflugerville and I swear there is a vortex over here that just dissipates any storms or rain.  Frustrating.  Last Friday was the only really good rain.  I’m hoping we are out of this cycle and the wet weather will continue.  

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

Configure browser push notifications

Chrome (Android)
  1. Tap the lock icon next to the address bar.
  2. Tap Permissions → Notifications.
  3. Adjust your preference.
Chrome (Desktop)
  1. Click the padlock icon in the address bar.
  2. Select Site settings.
  3. Find Notifications and adjust your preference.