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It could be a rainy Monday practically anywhere in Texas.  This is the HRRR weather model which is usually pretty good in the short term. 

CACC7-ED3-938-D-4823-B6-CC-4760-F987367-

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  • Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

  • jimmyjazz
    jimmyjazz

    I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

  • Grade of D as in David
    Grade of D as in David

    Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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Please no more rain for a week or two. It is a we mess 

6 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Please no more rain for a week or two. It is a we mess 

Negged.

8 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Please no more rain for a week or two. It is a we mess 

Fuck you. We’re still in extreme drought conditions in SA. 
 

 

9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Please no more rain for a week or two. It is a we mess 

idgaf-dgaf.gif

 

Man, actual negs, on the rain thread?  Tough crowd.

But yeah, no.  No cries of mercy.  Seems we only ever get rain in floods, so let it flood, let it flood, let if flood.

2 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

Fuck you. We’re still in extreme drought conditions in SA. 
 

 

Fuck you were sitting at 10” of rain

Build an ark. Or move to Arizona. 10 inches is nothing. South Austin's mom will tell ya t

River here is about 1 foot under its usual levels. It is spring fed, so that means the aquifers are suffering. 

On 8/28/2022 at 9:12 AM, Wally Pryor said:

We were coming back from a soccer game in RR early evening. Saw this building to the west. Automatically assumed it would fade with the sunset. 

Not so I guess. 

Tournament?  Our match was stopped mid-match thanks to lightning and then Sunday games were cancelled due to soggy fields.

32 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Tournament?  Our match was stopped mid-match thanks to lightning and then Sunday games were cancelled due to soggy fields.

Sally Fields' homely cousin, I presume.

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Build an ark. Or move to Arizona. 10 inches is nothing. South Austin's mom will tell ya t

River here is about 1 foot under its usual levels. It is spring fed, so that means the aquifers are suffering. 

Same here for the Comal. We ain’t had shit except for a quarter inch for a couple of days. Flow that was 271 (mean) last year on this date is now 124. And that’s up from earlier this month where it hovered around a 100. We need a lot of fuckin rain to drop here and in recharge areas of aquifer. 

Things are going to stay wet for at least the next 5-7 days. 

p168i.gif?1661860318

 

And some of the rivers are beginning to rise ever so slightly.  It's a good sign that the ground is finally saturated enough for run off.  I'd love for this map to verify. 

image.png.376ab6449df3b0246497ea1085cd5d93.png

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Things are going to stay wet for at least the next 5-7 days. 

p168i.gif?1661860318

 

And some of the rivers are beginning to rise ever so slightly.  It's a good sign that the ground is finally saturated enough for run off.  I'd love for this map to verify. 

image.png.376ab6449df3b0246497ea1085cd5d93.png

Thanks Hate. What's the link for the top map?

  • Author
22 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I don't think I've ever seen such a consistent 15-day forecast.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/15e42cf0d1698d199d5a55b9570d570c3936042c702535298c1c8545e2a9f477

Within 2 or 3 degrees of 88/75, 85% humidity and 58% chance of scattered showers every day from here to eternity.

The humidity will suck, but I'll take the high 80s and a chance of rain for an 11am kick off on September 10.

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

as of right now.

image.thumb.png.26d0381dc8af1f25a374b0a41c56d558.png

That storm over Del Rio area has been there since like 5 AM. They must e getting pounded.

Weird. According to the radar, I'm not getting anything...nothing even that close by. But if I look out my window, all I see is a wall of water. 

Some very scattered, intense showers. Had rain pouring down and drove 1/2 mile and it was barely wet. 

Apparently there has been a fair amount of rainful in the recharge zone for much of the Highland Lakes.  Let's hope for a lot more.

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Apparently there has been a fair amount of rainful in the recharge zone for much of the Highland Lakes.  Let's hope for a lot more.

 

Not Quite GIFs | Tenor

image.thumb.png.234a4d66c9ca7f33a7a4d80356da66e4.png

6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Within 2 or 3 degrees of 88/75, 85% humidity and 58% chance of scattered showers every day from here to eternity.

Which will make all of the recent transplants forget about the hundred degree days and not reconsider their moves to Austin.

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

 

Not Quite GIFs | Tenor

 

Weather gal on KXAN this morning was saying 1.5-2 inches since midnight.  I didn't say it filled up the lakes.  Baby steps.

It’s saturated the ground in the area so an future rains this week should run off into the rivers. It’s effectively primed the pumps…we’ll see.

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I didn't say it filled up the lakes.

I filled up your mom last night.

59 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

I filled up your mom last night.

I'm surprised you had the energy after digging her up.

Here is what the soil moisture for Central Texas looked like before today.  I think this only updates once a day so it will be interesting to see what it is tomorrow or when it updates next. 

image.thumb.png.bd377168eb7ea4009c29381c5abba70b.png

Edited by Hate

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm surprised you had the energy after digging her up.

image.gif.e514c10b7ba07117d63551cf6d07c43b.gif

15 minutes ago, troph said:

having no idea what the fall is supposed to look like, getting a head start in late august and beginning of september with the mild and cold months ahead of us has to be a good thing.

It's just a trick to distract you before snowpocalypse 2023

Some weather models are seeing an intriguing trend for Texas next week.  There is potential for a dying hurricane in the Eastern Pacific to be caught up in in front and all of the moisture from it being dragged across Texas.  This setup has the potential to be a big rainmaker for us.  A similar setup led to the floods in October of 1998, although that was actually moisture from two dying hurricanes.

ecmwf_apcpn_us_64.png

gem_apcpn_us_40.png

I don't know how many times I've said that the <checks notes> ECMWF is my favorite model!

  • Author
7 minutes ago, Orange&amp;White said:

I don't know how many times I've said that the <checks notes> ECMWF is my favorite model!

Forecasts heavy moisture.  Would bang.

image.thumb.png.6ae3ba9646c350665c5be946e14b1b3b.png

image.png.ec24f89fc817dd8f268b0b8a74212544.png

 

These could be the storm(s) that the Euro is seeing being brought over Mexico and into Texas.  It's just something to watch at the moment as it's likely 7-8 days away and a lot can change. 

The scattered showers bit is really getting old.  Fox 7 showed the rainfall amounts for the month and year to date for Mabry and ABIA.  0.70" behind Mabry and 2.8" behind ABIA for this month and right at 5 inches for the year (making it 11" below normal) and I'm less than 20 miles from both.  The cracks in the ground are just as bad now as they were in July.

2 hours ago, Orange&amp;White said:

I don't know how many times I've said that the <checks notes> ECMWF is my favorite model!

fucking wheelhouse!!

9 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

The scattered showers bit is really getting old.  Fox 7 showed the rainfall amounts for the month and year to date for Mabry and ABIA.  0.70" behind Mabry and 2.8" behind ABIA for this month and right at 5 inches for the year (making it 11" below normal) and I'm less than 20 miles from both.  The cracks in the ground are just as bad now as they were in July.

Would you rather it be a hundred and fuck without a cloud in the sky like in 2001? 

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