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Tomorrow's Matchups:

 

#5 Houston (5, 24.10, Huckleberry - 59.91%) vs. #4 Illinois (4, 11.83, Capn81 - 40.09%)
#7 Ohio St. (7, 18.78, Capn81 - 36.73%) vs. #2 Villanova (2, 9.67, shadow_operative - 63.27%)
#7 Michigan St. (7, 16.48, Wulaw Horn - 34.94%) vs. #2 Duke (2, 8.83, Capn81 - 65.06%)
#11 Iowa St. (11, 30.42, Wulaw Horn - 46.26%) vs. #3 Wisconsin (3, 9.34, Prepuce of Doom - 53.74%)
#11 Notre Dame (11, 21.32, Prepuce of Doom - 27.80%) vs. #3 Texas Tech (3, 15.04, henrygandorf - 72.20%)
#10 Miami (FL) (10, 18.44, shadow_operative - 21.85%) vs. #2 Auburn (2, 12.93, Huckleberry - 78.15%)
#6 Texas (6, 24.90, henrygandorf - 42.75%) vs. #3 Purdue (3, 17.13, Bartles - 57.25%)
#9 TCU (9, 16.41, shadow_operative - 21.95%) vs. #1 Arizona (1, 6.78, Prepuce of Doom - 78.05%)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 98, 146.24
shadow_operative, 57, 114.12
henrygandorf, 33, 69.53
Wulaw Horn, 31, 59.85
Huckleberry, 26, 58.75
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 51.17
Bartles, 15, 36.93
TXSooner518, 15, 21.44

Houston's win over Illinois slows the Capn81 train just a bit. Not enough to help me be competitive but maybe helps keep him within Derka range.

Edited by Huckleberry

Ohio State's loss also brings Capn81 back a little closer to the pack.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 98, 132.23
shadow_operative, 61, 118.38
henrygandorf, 33, 69.51
Wulaw Horn, 31, 59.83
Huckleberry, 26, 58.10
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 51.02
Bartles, 15, 36.92
TXSooner518, 15, 21.44
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.12
shadow_operative, 61, 118.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 72.83
henrygandorf, 39, 73.23
Huckleberry, 26, 58.13
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 34.39
Bartles, 15, 36.61
TXSooner518, 15, 21.14

Wulaw with the Cyclone bump.

  • Author
16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.12
shadow_operative, 61, 118.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 72.83
henrygandorf, 39, 73.23
Huckleberry, 26, 58.13
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 34.39
Bartles, 15, 36.61
TXSooner518, 15, 21.14

Wulaw with the Cyclone bump.

My only team left.  Need them to get to at least the final 4 and have the rest be chalk. Even that might not be enough. 

  • Author
9 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

I am mathematically eliminated. 

Yeah but you won’t last year so you are a hero in my book. I’ve never won. 

Late tonight I rerun the ratings and transition to posting each participant's # of paths to victory and win probability. Can't do that from the beginning because of the number of possible permutations, but I have a spreadsheet that calculates the scores for each of the 32,768 possible permutations of the Sweet 16 forward.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.50
shadow_operative, 81, 149.90
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.96
henrygandorf, 39, 74.14
Huckleberry, 26, 47.70
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 35.22
Bartles, 15, 36.65
TXSooner518, 15, 21.15

Auburn loss wrecked me, but we have a new EV leader @shadow_operative with the Miami win. I probably need a Houston national championship to win the contest.

Yeah a Houston title gets me to 111 points. I would also need all three of Capn's remaining teams to lose in the Sweet 16 (Michigan, St. Peter's, and Duke). then have UCLA beat UNC for Derka. Shit, getting into permutations I might already be eliminated too. We will see later tonight.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 135.15
shadow_operative, 81, 148.90
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.96
henrygandorf, 39, 55.21
Huckleberry, 26, 47.68
Prepuce of Doom, 23, 35.21
Bartles, 21, 47.11
TXSooner518, 15, 21.11
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 134.63
shadow_operative, 81, 141.66
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.82
henrygandorf, 39, 55.16
Huckleberry, 26, 45.24
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 36.69
Bartles, 21, 47.07
TXSooner518, 15, 21.10

Three participants have been eliminated

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 52.33% (12,726)
Capn81 - 35.98% (16,315)
Wulaw Horn - 9.09% (3,209)
Tie - 1.24% (228)
Huckleberry - 0.84% (60)
henrygandorf - 0.52% (230)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 102, 117.66
shadow_operative, 87, 152.69
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.47
henrygandorf, 39, 58.65
TXSooner518, 27, 38.27
Huckleberry, 26, 45.92
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 36.20
Bartles, 21, 39.99

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 70.20% (4,514)
Capn81 - 15.92% (2,527)
Wulaw Horn - 11.26% (1,004)
Huckleberry - 1.35% (30)
henrygandorf - 0.94% (87)
Tie - 0.31% (26)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 108, 125.87
shadow_operative, 87, 152.85
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.48
henrygandorf, 39, 45.91
TXSooner518, 27, 38.48
Huckleberry, 26, 45.94
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 36.21
Bartles, 21, 40.08

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 65.91% (2,176)
Capn81 - 21.91% (1,390)
Wulaw Horn - 10.69% (492)
Huckleberry - 0.77% (10)
Tie - 0.55% (16)
henrygandorf - 0.09% (8)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 108, 125.90
shadow_operative, 87, 153.24
Wulaw Horn, 53, 83.63
Huckleberry, 41, 67.57
henrygandorf, 39, 45.96
TXSooner518, 27, 38.51
Prepuce of Doom, 25, 31.69
Bartles, 21, 40.12

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 65.53% (1,085)
Capn81 - 20.91% (691)
Wulaw Horn - 10.72% (246)
Huckleberry - 1.60% (10)
Tie - 1.03% (10)
henrygandorf - 0.09% (4)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

Michigan lost to Villanova today. That's your extra 33 for Capn and missing 6 for Derka. You gave Michigan the win.

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Michigan lost to Villanova today. That's your extra 33 for Capn and missing 6 for Derka. You gave Michigan the win.

Yep. Thanks! 

 

20220324_234500.jpg

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 153, 175.93
shadow_operative, 87, 164.23
Wulaw Horn, 53, 81.42
Huckleberry, 41, 66.69
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 28, 34.31
TXSooner518, 27, 39.26
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
Capn81 - 51.66% (299)
shadow_operative - 42.59% (173)
Wulaw Horn - 3.93% (36)
Tie - 0.73% (2)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

The two tie possibilities are between Derka and Capn, of course.

Poster, Current Score, EV
Capn81, 153, 182.41
shadow_operative, 141, 203.57
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 66.96
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 28, 34.62
TXSooner518, 27, 40.37
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 68.57% (70)
Capn81 - 31.43% (58)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)
  • Author

And this is where I end every year- 3rd to last eliminated (with only a punchers chance going into the sweet 16) and 4th or so. 
another year another failure. 

Still a two-horse race. I still have the opportunity to accumulate meaningless points on the back of Kansas, but all others are now parked. 

With the exception of the two contenders, everyone else put up some pretty measly scores this year. 

20220327_093430.jpg

Poster, Current Score, EV
shadow_operative, 181, 210.12
Capn81, 161, 170.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 41.00
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 36.91
TXSooner518, 27, 27.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 85.04% (7)
Capn81 - 14.96% (1)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

Duke over Villanova in the championship game gives the title to @Capn81. Any other result gives it to @shadow_operative

 

  • Author

Honestly?  All love to Capn but Derka deserves to win this one for picking UNC 1st with the #3 overall pick. That was maybe the best first round pick we’ve ever had in this thing.  Congrats to him. 

17 hours ago, Huckleberry said:
Poster, Current Score, EV
shadow_operative, 181, 210.12
Capn81, 161, 170.55
Wulaw Horn, 53, 53.00
Huckleberry, 41, 41.00
henrygandorf, 39, 39.00
Prepuce of Doom, 32, 36.91
TXSooner518, 27, 27.00
Bartles, 21, 21.00

 

Poster - Win Probability (# Paths)
shadow_operative - 85.04% (7)
Capn81 - 14.96% (1)
Wulaw Horn - 0.00% (0)
Tie - 0.00% (0)
Huckleberry - 0.00% (0)
henrygandorf - 0.00% (0)
TXSooner518 - 0.00% (0)
Bartles - 0.00% (0)
Prepuce of Doom - 0.00% (0)

 

Duke over Villanova in the championship game gives the title to @Capn81. Any other result gives it to @shadow_operative

 

Shouldn't that be dook over Kansas gives Capn the title, and any other outcome favors Derka?

If it's Villanova against dook in the CG, then Derka will collect another 10 points from Villanova which keeps it at a 20 point difference going into the CG which dook won't eclipse even with a win. 

1 hour ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

Shouldn't that be dook over Kansas gives Capn the title, and any other outcome favors Derka?

If it's Villanova against dook in the CG, then Derka will collect another 10 points from Villanova which keeps it at a 20 point difference going into the CG which dook won't eclipse even with a win. 

That's correct. I read from the wrong line in my sheet. 

Honestly?  All love to Capn but Derka deserves to win this one for picking UNC 1st with the #3 overall pick. That was maybe the best first round pick we’ve ever had in this thing.  Congrats to him. 

Yeah but he passed on St. Peter’s six straight rounds.

honestly it feels to me (and i assume everyone else) like Duke over KU is the most likely outcome, but i was already rooting hard against that anyway, so it doesn't change anything for me. it's still fuck duke, like it's always been. capn i hope you feel dirty rooting for Coach Stan Valchek and the mighty blue devils. 

Edited by shadow_operative

Kansas beats Duke  - 19.96%

Duke beats Kansas - 14.96%

Kansas beats North Carolina - 14.64%

Duke beats Villanova - 13.35%

Villanova beats Duke  - 13.24%

Villanova beats North Carolina - 10.10%

North Carolina beats Kansas - 7.21%

North Carolina beats Villanova - 6.54%

honestly it feels to me (and i assume everyone else) like Duke over KU is the most likely outcome, but i was already rooting hard against that anyway, so it doesn't change anything for me. it's still fuck duke, like it's always been. capn i hope you feel dirty rooting for Coach Stan Valchek and the mighty blue devils. 

Haha, I don’t!

Congrats Derka., What a fun run buddy! Let’s continue this in fantasy baseball.

Thanks all for tracking the outcomes . Great great of dudes to run it with.

  • Author

Seriously though- what did we say- $20?  $25?  Seems like it’s always a little different. Nobody has ever not been paid on one of these things. Let us know if there’s any issues. 
is that Venmo?  Or pay pal?  Once upon a time I wrote Big Orange a check and mailed it- so apologies if that’s a dumb question but I’m not typically an internet pay guy until very recently. 

It doesn't look like we ever discussed the buy in. The 2019 thread indicates it was $25 that year, so that's what I sent

with this victory, i become the first surly member to have won the surly fantasy baseball league (twice), the surly roto league, the surly fantasy hoops league (countless times), the surly bracket challenge, and now, the surly seeded draft. you know it's true what they say- if you never work, and have nothing but free time on your hands, and spend all of that free time online and watching sports, then you too can be pretty good at fantasy sports. 

18 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

with this victory, i become the first surly member to have won the surly fantasy baseball league (twice), the surly roto league, the surly fantasy hoops league (countless times), the surly bracket challenge, and now, the surly seeded draft. you know it's true what they say- if you never work, and have nothing but free time on your hands, and spend all of that free time online and watching sports, then you too can be pretty good at fantasy sports. 

I have already begun the paperwork to get you onto the next Wheaties box - keep an eye on your mail! 

On 3/16/2022 at 10:34 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

$25 it is. Derka can get a loan from Gandorf. 

 

On 4/3/2022 at 8:57 AM, shadow_operative said:

y'all can each send your $500 entry fee to me here:

 

53F7197D-5F3A-4419-B36F-CA92B368A9D5.jpeg

ive gotten money from four of you so far. to the remaining members:

 

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