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2022 Summer Season: Flavor-Aid (Strength: Prison Wine)

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10 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

I’m not arguing those CFB projections, but you ignore pretty much all stats/information that is positive.

There’s really no reason to believe we’ll regress on the Oline. In almost any year, you get at least one guy who has improved or plays better than anticipated and beyond expectations. It seems that if Banks comes in at LT and can be average, that is a huge upgrade in most peoples minds.

We played teams that defensively created chaos. On a per game basis, we played 3 of the top 17 in average TFLs per game. All 3 in consecutive weeks, the last two had Bye weeks prior to playing us. The third we screwed up by jacking our lineup due to injury. Take out G5 teams it was 3 of top 11. Six conference foes were top 38. There were 5 SEC teams in the top 38. 7 from the ACC. 2 Big 10.

Now let’s take the Stuff Rate. Texas was best in the Big 12 on the Oline with the lowest rate. Obviously there are sacks allowed. We were tied at 61st in the country in sacks allowed.

You can argue Bijan saved some here. Probably but he wasn’t far and away the broken tackles leader either. I’d also counter that our QBs didn’t save us much either.

But the point is that our opponents didn’t sit back and play passively. They attacked. And they were good at it. Not just against us but every team they played.

So I’ll ask simply this. Do you expect our Oline to be better next year? Even incrementally. Year 2. Good coaching. Additional year of maturity. Great incoming talent.

What in the fuck are you trying to do with this post? Instill hope through logic and data? You're a heartless bastard.

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Just now, closetojumping said:

What in the fuck are you trying to do with this post? Instill hope through logic and data? You're a heartless bastard.

I have dubbed him Dumb Enough fwiw 

7 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

I’m not arguing those CFB projections, but you ignore pretty much all stats/information that is positive.

There’s really no reason to believe we’ll regress on the Oline. In almost any year, you get at least one guy who has improved or plays better than anticipated and beyond expectations. It seems that if Banks comes in at LT and can be average, that is a huge upgrade in most peoples minds.

We played teams that defensively created chaos. On a per game basis, we played 3 of the top 17 in average TFLs per game. All 3 in consecutive weeks, the last two had Bye weeks prior to playing us. The third we screwed up by jacking our lineup due to injury. Take out G5 teams it was 3 of top 11. Six conference foes were top 38. There were 5 SEC teams in the top 38. 7 from the ACC. 2 Big 10.

Now let’s take the Stuff Rate. Texas was best in the Big 12 on the Oline with the lowest rate. Obviously there are sacks allowed. We were tied at 61st in the country in sacks allowed.

You can argue Bijan saved some here. Probably but he wasn’t far and away the broken tackles leader either. I’d also counter that our QBs didn’t save us much either.

But the point is that our opponents didn’t sit back and play passively. They attacked. And they were good at it. Not just against us but every team they played.

So I’ll ask simply this. Do you expect our Oline to be better next year? Even incrementally. Year 2. Good coaching. Additional year of maturity. Great incoming talent.

This is the hope of the Mighty Quinn. We look back at some of the film from the second half of OSU and OU games. Those defenses came after Texas, especially OSU. They dared Texas to beat them with the pass. I am sure someone can pull up that picture of OSU with the whole defense playing inside of 10 yards of the LOS. Texas needs a QB that can get the all out in a hurry and on target. Put it in perspective, only 3 QBs in the NFL averaged 3 seconds or more to throw a pass. I am pretty confident Texas was well beyond 3 seconds last year 

20 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

We played teams that defensively created chaos. On a per game basis, we played 3 of the top 17 in average TFLs per game.

Now take their defensive stats against us out and where did they rank?

What in the fuck are you trying to do with this post? Instill hope through logic and data? You're a heartless bastard.

I’m not sure I can answer that question. I’m fully aware it will do nothing to lessen the whining of some. Maybe it makes me feel better. The data does provide interest. To me anyway.

But damnit I’m hopeful. That’s the path I’ve chosen.
1 minute ago, Had Enough said:


I’m not sure I can answer that question. I’m fully aware it will do nothing to lessen the whining of some. Maybe it makes me feel better. The data does provide interest. To me anyway.

But damnit I’m hopeful. That’s the path I’ve chosen.

Maybe pick a new username?

1 hour ago, JFKFC said:

One of the most valued metrics in college football models like this is Returning Offensive Line Starts. These models work under the assumption that, if a team is choosing to start a player again, he must be a quality offensive lineman. If a team were to curiously start 4 substandard offensive linemen in consecutive seasons, the model will crank out bad data. 

hopefully guys get better year over year if they are starting

Maybe pick a new username?

Well I have had enough of losing/being mediocre. Yet still hopeful.
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11 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Maybe pick a new username?

Oh I read it as having nothing to do with football.

image.png.0039205ffbea75d405aeccc7481b18fd.png

10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

7 wins is our peak with Sark until proven otherwise 

Sark's peak...

nicolas cage film GIF

22 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

This is the hope of the Mighty Quinn. We look back at some of the film from the second half of OSU and OU games. Those defenses came after Texas, especially OSU. They dared Texas to beat them with the pass. I am sure someone can pull up that picture of OSU with the whole defense playing inside of 10 yards of the LOS. Texas needs a QB that can get the all out in a hurry and on target. Put it in perspective, only 3 QBs in the NFL averaged 3 seconds or more to throw a pass. I am pretty confident Texas was well beyond 3 seconds last year 

     2:51 mark... All eleven on defense within 5yrs of the LOS  😠

 

That picture makes me ragey. An injured Casey Thompson was helpless against a good defense. Didn’t he also throw a terrible pick six in that game? 

6 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

That picture makes me ragey. An injured Casey Thompson was helpless against a good defense. Didn’t he also throw a terrible pick six in that game? 

He did. That is also a great example of what I am talking about. Texas is running a pick and the arrow route is open. The ball doesn’t come out and the rest is history. He even cuts it up the sideline and is open, ball still doesn’t come out 

Edited by Codaxx

Now take their defensive stats against us out and where did they rank?

If Texas-OSU didn’t count, then OSU goes from 2nd to 1st in TFLs per game.

I did scan box scores quickly except ULaLa. If you were to back out our games, it was more often than not our opponents had fewer TFLs and loss yardage versus us than their season average.

One thing that was not readily apparent in box scores was receptions that resulted in TFLs. I did see one and counted it against Worthy versus OSU.
1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

7 wins is our peak with Sark until proven otherwise 

The S&P 500 index won't close above 4800 until proven otherwise. 

You see how dumb that is? 

30 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


If Texas-OSU didn’t count, then OSU goes from 2nd to 1st in TFLs per game.

I did scan box scores quickly except ULaLa. If you were to back out our games, it was more often than not our opponents had fewer TFLs and loss yardage versus us than their season average.

One thing that was not readily apparent in box scores was receptions that resulted in TFLs. I did see one and counted it against Worthy versus OSU.

For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

I think run blocking will be solid, but like last year it may take a little time. I still think Texas is in dire need of OT that can hold up in pass pro without help. Offense is likely to start out a bit inconsistent and mature over the course of the year. Despite all the nonsense in here about the OL and offense in general, the real issue last year was the defense. I suspect that isn’t getting cured over night. The defense is going to determine this teams ceiling 

1 hour ago, Newy25 said:

That picture makes me ragey. An injured Casey Thompson was helpless against a good defense. Didn’t he also throw a terrible pick six in that game? 

One of the worst I’ve seen

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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

     2:51 mark... All eleven on defense within 5yrs of the LOS  😠

 

58939604_ScreenShot2022-04-15at4_17_38PM.thumb.png.78ab12cfbbdcd2a4910a226b688e1529.png

At 2:54 ... Worthy is running up the sideline, while his man is standing still.  That's an easy conversion.

Cade Brewer standing at the first down marker, wide open.

Casey Thompson gets tackled for a loss.

I think a competent QB might be able to convert the first down there.

  • Popular Post

OBs

Spoiler

(DUNLAP)

I was able to catch up with a Texas high school coach this week who has been out at various UT spring practices as well as the coaches clinic that occurred last weekend. Here are some of his thoughts on the team, the coaching staff and more. It was interesting to hear the takeaways of somebody outside of the program:

On the offensive line:

- Kyle Flood loves Hayden Conner, would show reps to the HS coaches from practice and would comment on how Conner can play four different positions for them, both guards and both tackles.

- Sawyer Goram-Welch is working at center, he had to work with the twos on Saturday during the scrimmage because Junior Angilau was being held back, so Cole Hutson was with the first group filling in. Logan Parr moved to RG and Goram-Welch handled the center.

- Junior Angilau (along with Roschon Johnson) are the most vocal leaders of the team on offense. There was a fight at the scrimmage on Saturday between Anthony Cook and Jahleel Billingsley when Xavier Worthy was hit late on a trick-play pass where Worthy was the QB. Angilau, who was held out of the scrimmage because he a little banged up, had to be physically held back from joining the fray.

- This coach is friends with Tray Allen, who is the former Texas OL and the current OL coach at Duncanville HS. He says Allen was at practice Thursday and told him that Cam Williams is coming in ready to play. He said that Williams gives Flood what he wants AT GUARD and Flood has communicated to Allen that this is where he wants Williams to play. I had previously said I thought Williams can play RT (still think he can), but now we know that Flood's first preference is at guard, where Allen told this coach that Flood sees Williams in much the same mold of a Deonte Brown-type of behemoth interior lineman he had at Bama two years ago.

- Allen also told this coach that the staff loves Kelvin Banks and he'd be surprised if he doesn't at least get a shot to play left tackle right off.

On the tight ends

- Billingsley has been making moves to get more involved in recent practices, but JT Sanders and Gunnar Helm have both look great. Billingsley was being used as a flexed WR in a 4WR look where he was flexed off the line. It was a specialty role that the coach didn't see the other TEs taking part in.

- This coach was impressed with the way Sark used his three athletic TEs in practice because it was different than last season. "There's always someone curling inside to sit over the linebackers," he said. "Those guys are so athletic that if you don't get a safety coming down there, they can hurt you. Then, when the safety does come down, the top gets opened up for Worthy and those guys."

- He said that Sark and Jeff Banks pound the crap out of route-work and route-tree stuff with their TEs, so much more than Tom Herman did. "They were always with Herb Hand and the linemen (before)," he said. I told him that was hilarious because Herman literally split his TEs out as receiver over three times more frequently than Sark does.

On the RBs

- It is not breaking news to anyone that Texas has good RBs, but this coach says he's been coming to practices since he started coaching in the mid-2000s and it is clearly the best RB room he's seen.

- Plenty of 2RB running back sets, but not much sighting of Roschon Johnson as a wildcat QB, the staff is having to get every rep it can in evaluation of Ewers and Card.

- This coach noticed the same thing I did about recent LB-to-RB transitioner Jaden Hullaby, which is that he is a unit and hard to take down. "He looks like Chris Warren," he said. He also said he legitimately thought he would take over the Roschon role once Roschon moves on.

- He mentioned how much he loved new RB coach Tashard Choice. "He was the all-star of the clinic," he said. "He's all juice, all the time, doesn't matter if it's 6am or what. He got a big ovation after his presentation, he could be up there talking about how to brew coffee or something and it would get you fired up."

- He also said that Choice told a group of coaches at practice that this is the "most toys" he's ever had to play with as far as RB personnel. He also said "and don't worry, I have more coming." It's unclear who exactly he's referring to, but he's extremely confident about something this coach said.

On the QBs

- Surprisingly not much to be said here. He said that Quinn Ewers must have thrown five picks on Saturday (an exaggeration) but also had good enough moments to where he was pretty convinced he'll be the eventual starter. He said that the QB who played with the first OL was the better QB in practice and that playing behind the second OL just meant a lot of stuff that looked like unrehearsed jailbreaks.

On Sarkisian

- "He's more fired up this year," he said. "He's getting on kids more. He's not afraid to get on them when he's not happy with what he's seeing."

On Strength Coach Tori Becton

- Becton told some of the coaches in attendance that there was more focus on lifting and explosion this year than last. "He has a track background," the coach said. "Sark wants explosion and last season, they came in and saw guys Yancy had beefed up and wanted them to be more flexible, faster and quicker." This coach said flexibility and agility will always be part of Becton's M.O., but it is a more multi-pronged approach coming into Year 2 where the guys' bodies are more in line with what they want.

On the WRs

- Not too much talk about these guys, but I did find it interesting that this coach said that Xavier Worthy doesn't take the bus back to the locker room after practice. He just walks through the LBJ library parking lot like all the coaches.

On the DL

- This coach thought that Keondre Coburn is likely still starting because he is a senior but would not be surprised if Byron Murphy is basically starting by the time the season starts. "Murphy is better," he said, noting that Coburn's pad level in team drills is still a concern.

On the LBs

- LBs coach Jeff Choate told some of the HS coaches in attendance that the LB unit last season "couldn't break old habits," and at times he felt like the linebackers were "a step behind" in 2021. I think fans would agree. The focus has been on fundamentals, and about fitting the run better. "Trust your eyes is what we tell them," Choate said. "They're starting to trust the system more and trust their eyes, which is what we're looking for."

- This coach was impressed with Jaylan Ford and believes he will be a great complement to Demarvion Overshown. "Overshown is going to overrun a few plays for you, but on the next play he's going to blow someone up," he said.

On Gary Patterson

- "That dude is NOT just there collecting a paycheck," he laughed. Anwar has talked about how Patterson is always the first coach out at practice, but this coach echoed the sentiment: "He seems like he thinks he's going to be the one calling plays (next year)," he said. "That's how seriously he takes it."

- He said that Patterson seemed very interested in talking with the HS coaches in town, many of whom he already knew. This coach told Patterson that it was wild to see him in Texas gear, flashing the hook'em etc. and Patterson shrugged it off and said he loved it here. This coach, who has enormous respect for Patterson, says he thinks his impact on the team will be far greater than his title and reported salary would indicate

 

2 hours ago, Had Enough said:

There’s really no reason to believe we’ll regress on the Oline.

Counter: Texas 2010-2021

1 hour ago, NoName said:

hopefully guys get better year over year if they are starting

Counter: Texas 2010-2021

 

Ball is lined up, Charlie.

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is in dire need of OT that can hold up in pass pro without help. Offense is likely to start out a bit inconsistent and mature over the course of the year. Despite all the nonsense in here about the OL and offense in general, the real issue last year was the defense. I suspect that isn’t getting cured over night. The defense is going to determine this teams ceiling 

  • 1) So someone want to provide some strong spiked Kool-Aid on why this defense will be a lot better in 2022??

(I'm guessing addition of Ryan Watts plus the hopeful addition of Ochaun Mathis will be part of the answer )

 

  • 2) Where The Fuck has Leadership really improved on this 2022 team, especially on the defensive side of the ball ??

I'm trying to find some tough nasty guys, who give a shit and will start for this team in 2022.  The only one to fit the bill so far might be Byron Murphy.

 

10 minutes ago, Fud said:

This coach thought that Keondre Coburn is likely still starting because he is a senior but would not be surprised if Byron Murphy is basically starting by the time the season starts. "Murphy is better," he said, noting that Coburn's pad level in team drills is still a concern.

I am as down on Sark and Pete K as anyone, but if they will make this a meritocracy, and bench a 5th year guy for someone like Murphy who (I have heard from multiple analysts) is better, that would be a tremendously positive sign. Let's hope it happens. 

13 minutes ago, Fud said:

"He seems like he thinks he's going to be the one calling plays (next year)," he said. "That's how seriously he takes it."

closetojumping

2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
  • 1) So someone want to provide some strong spiked Kool-Aid on why this defense will be a lot better in 2022??

(I'm guessing addition of Ryan Watts plus the hopeful addition of Ochaun Mathis will be part of the answer )

 

  • 2) Where The Fuck has Leadership really improved on this 2022 team, especially on the defensive side of the ball ??

I'm trying to find some tough nasty guys, who give a shit and will start for this team in 2022.  The only one to fit the bill so far might be Byron Murphy.

 

I think Cook and Crawford have the potential to really upgrade the Safety spot. Kitan has legit wheels at FS. I do think Watts should be nickel. Barron at CB, but even with this configuration it is better. Cook wasn’t good when asked to cover int he slot. Barron allows them to be much more aggressive in coverage. LB will be improved. You can base that on Ford’s progression last year from game 1 to game 12. Have to hope Overshown being healthy for his first spring ball improves his game. Texas will be fine on the interior DL. That is about all I got for Kool Aid 

17 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

58939604_ScreenShot2022-04-15at4_17_38PM.thumb.png.78ab12cfbbdcd2a4910a226b688e1529.png

At 2:54 ... Worthy is running up the sideline, while his man is standing still.  That's an easy conversion.

Cade Brewer standing at the first down marker, wide open.

Casey Thompson gets tackled for a loss.

I think a competent QB might be able to convert the first down there.

There is also Washington running down the middle of the field. So the deep safety on that side has to Split Washington or Worthy. We can’t see if he shaded one side or the other,  it it is a 2 on 1 

8 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

I am as down on Sark and Pete K as anyone, but if they will make this a meritocracy, and bench a 5th year guy for someone like Murphy who (I have heard from multiple analysts) is better, that would be a tremendously positive sign. Let's hope it happens. 

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much. Sweat and Ojomo both played more snaps over Coburn as the year went on last year and Murphy saw the field a fair amount.

Edited by Hookem2147

8 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I think Cook and Crawford have the potential to really upgrade the Safety spot. Kitan has legit wheels at FS. I do think Watts should be nickel. Barron at CB, but even with this configuration it is better. Cook wasn’t good when asked to cover int he slot. Barron allows them to be much more aggressive in coverage. LB will be improved. You can base that on Ford’s progression last year from game 1 to game 12. Have to hope Overshown being healthy for his first spring ball improves his game. Texas will be fine on the interior DL. That is about all I got for Kool Aid 

Thx Codaxx...

I'm also hoping that the offense doesn't have nearly as many 3 and outs in 2022, and averages closer to 35+pts per game -- that would definitely increase the number of wins for Texas this year.

Coach Banks better bust his ass with the Special Teams this year -- not sure what Texas has there...

 

Edited by LTtxfan

Just now, Hookem2147 said:

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much. Sweat and Ojomo both played more snaps over Coburn as the year went on last year.

Sweat and Collins are the 2 to focus on, if you want Kool Aid. If someone can get their motors running hot every play, this is a different defense.  Coburn is Coburn. He is fine vs the run, but he just isn’t a disruptive player at this point. Maybe he turns it on, but Sweat and Collins have NFL upside. Murphy is young and shows nice promise, but the one thing he separates from the rest is his motor. He plays hard every play 

I'm here for the Murphy party. 

Untitled.thumb.png.f349753bd5c06e1c3396a0e3bd29a697.png

9 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Thx Codaxx...

I'm also hoping that the offense doesn't have nearly as many 3 and outs in 2022, and averages closer to 35+pts per game -- that would definitely increase the number of wins for Texas this year.

Coach Banks better bust his ass with the Special Teams this year -- not sure what Texas has there...

 

Damn you, you made me look. Texas was 105th in OFD (drives with at least one first down). I believe @NoName or @Nope had a stat that showed the Texas offense was abysmal with bad field position. It was basically of the offense got the ball inside their 25 it was almost a sure 3 and out. The defense was 90th in DFD. That was a 2 fold issue. One they tired out, because they didn’t get off the field. #2 they gave up field position and forced a poor starting position for the offense 

Edited by Codaxx

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

7 wins is our peak with Sark until proven otherwise 

I don't understand that stance when Sark's last 2 full seasons as a head coach before UT (2014 USC & 2013 UW) He won 9 games each of those seasons.

The idea of Cam Williams as a pulling guard is extremely gruntling

14 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

There is also Washington running down the middle of the field. So the deep safety on that side has to Split Washington or Worthy. We can’t see if he shaded one side or the other,  it it is a 2 on 1 

Why not leave Washington open? It's not like he is going to catch the ball.

5 minutes ago, Nope said:

The idea of Cam Williams as a pulling guard is extremely gruntling

I watched him in the playoffs and I was really impressed with his pass blocking. Oddly his running blocking needed work. Lot of lunging and pushing. I am guessing because he had work on pass pro and he could get away with natural size advantage in the run game. I maybe higher on him than anyone (if he stays in shape)

Edited by Codaxx

14 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Damn you, you made me look. Texas was 105th in OFD (drives with at least one first down). I believe @NoName or @Nope had a stat that showed the Texas offense was abysmal with bad field position. It was basically of the offense got the ball inside their 25 it was almost a sure 3 and out. The defense was 90th in DFD. That was a 2 fold issue. One they tired out, because they didn’t get off the field. #2 they gave up field position and forced a poor starting position for the offense 

 

FYI... May see the Texas Defense have to defend more plays/gm in 2022 with the new higher rep offenses at blOU, tech, wvu, and tcu.   

Spoiler

Gonna be a lot more plays/gm to defend 

  • blOU -- Jeff Lebby           80.5 plays/gm   (#4)
  • tech -- Zach Kittle            77.2 plays/gm    (#14)
  • wvu -- Graham Harrell     76.4 plays/gm    (#17)
  • tcu -- Sonny Dykes          75.5 plays/gm    (#25)

 

Interesting...  2021 Stats 

  • UTSA -- Jeff Traylor         73.8 plays/gm     (#30)
  • TEXAS --  SARK                68.8 plays/gm     (#80)
  • USC  -- Blinkin' Riley        66.8 plays/gm     (#107)*

*  at blOU

 

 https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/plays-per-game#:~:text=College FB Team Plays per Game , 97.0 42 more rows

 

 

41 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I understand your point, but announced starters on the DL don’t mean anything because we rotate so much.

I think it would send the right message to the team to not have a 5th year guy start if he doesn't deserve to start. 

1 hour ago, Fud said:

OBs

  Hide contents

Choice told a group of coaches at practice that this is the "most toys" he's ever had to play with as far as RB personnel. He also said "and don't worry, I have more coming." It's unclear who exactly he's referring to, but he's extremely confident about something this coach said.

 

Damn, that whole OB writeup is a diabetes inducing sized serving of Kool Aid, but this part about Choice can only mean Rueben Owens, right?

For their faults in pass pro the Oline was a good run blocking unit last year.  What I worry about is falling behind there without making up ground elsewhere.

It could happen, but that’d surprise me. This whole team has undergone a lot of changes over several seasons. That’ll make you a step slow.

Kerstetter was better at pass pro so that’s why I expect more improvement in the run game as I’d think we won’t see a drop off at RT in that regard. If it Jones, I’d expect improvement. Then it’s the production from the LT.

I’d also assume the RBs show improvement in their blocking. TE maybe?
5 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


It could happen, but that’d surprise me. This whole team has undergone a lot of changes over several seasons. That’ll make you a step slow.

Kerstetter was better at pass pro so that’s why I expect more improvement in the run game as I’d think we won’t see a drop off at RT in that regard. If it Jones, I’d expect improvement. Then it’s the production from the LT.

I’d also assume the RBs show improvement in their blocking. TE maybe?

The first task is to not allow free rushers due to simple stunts and blitzes

The first task is to not allow free rushers due to simple stunts and blitzes

True. Experience in the system in theory should help. Playing together should too. Not that should be excused in year 1.

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