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#1401
Erdogan is accusing the US of working with his opposition to topple him.
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Wonder when he will release the official results.

I mean, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if we were.
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#1403

The Turkey presidential election is going to be... interesting.

Quite interesting: Turkish journalist Fatih Altayli says appeal requests are being filed for the ballot boxes in which Kilicdaroglu is ahead and that is why the data from those ballots are not being shared/accounted for. Says this makes the overall picture misleading. https://t.co/MnhjgxFCoZ

 

#1404
21 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The Turkey presidential election is going to be... interesting.

So Erdogan is trying to flat-out steal it.  Bold strategy in this day and age.

 

#1405
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Erdogan is trying to flat-out steal it.  Bold strategy in this day and age.

 

I am not a Turkey wonk, but my bet is that he’s buying time. He wants to find out if he actually lost in the first round outright or if this will go to round 2. He’ll accept round 2, but if he lost outright that’s when he’ll trigger the other authoritarian tricks. 

#1406

I want to add, it’s a nightmare trying to get good news and commentary on this, as I don’t have my feed cultivated and am less sensitive to the signs of utter bullshit in the Turkey info space. Cool job, Elon! 

#1407

Heh. Photo caption on the Guardian live blog right now says "Supporters of outgoing Turkish president Erdoğan..."

So let it be written, so let it be done. 

Edited by flatdawgs
Tenses, how do they work?

#1408
14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to add, it’s a nightmare trying to get good news and commentary on this, as I don’t have my feed cultivated and am less sensitive to the signs of utter bullshit in the Turkey info space. Cool job, Elon! 

Yeah, and it's now 9pm in Turkey/Turkiye, so the results are supposed to be released.

So the misinformation channels are flooding the zone.

#1410
The Anadolu Agency has stopped updating Turkey’s election returns. And Erdoğan’s party is objecting to results in hundreds of places where it is way behind. These are among the indications that the opposition is doing well

 

#1411

One of the cul-de-sacs the aspiring democratic world (that includes us) has to find a way out of:

It’s unreasonable to expect people go play by the rules to bear people who don’t play by the rules. But once you start breaking them as well, you lose the entire argument for yourself. 
 

Nothing about Turkey’s system outside of strict ballot counting is fair or democratic, which renders even “fair” elections tainted. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide

#1412

one note - the percentage they are showing is the percentage of "ballot boxes opened" (kind of like how we have total precincts reporting).

as of now 89% of the boxes have been opened but only about 50% of the votes have been counted. 

image.thumb.png.0d9479ba9dfe87c87b8db71ef280abce.png

 

#1414
56 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

So this one is headed for OT?

Oh yes.

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

one note - the percentage they are showing is the percentage of "ballot boxes opened" (kind of like how we have total precincts reporting).

as of now 89% of the boxes have been opened but only about 50% of the votes have been counted. 

image.thumb.png.0d9479ba9dfe87c87b8db71ef280abce.png

 

So the reason why it was showing Erdogan as being ahead, is that any ballot/polling areas that are challenged cannot report their results, so Erdogan's allies are continuously demanding recounts while they try to figure out how bad it is.

At polling stations where the opposition is way ahead, votes are counted again and again. Even if the counts are identical, AKP or one of its allies requests an additional recount. This delaying tactic is being used nationwide, to make Erdoğan appear victorious. https://t.co/TJxaoiGadE
A polling station in one of Turkey’s opposition strongholds. As expected, Kılıçdaroğlu is way ahead of Erdoğan. But Erdoğan’s side has asked repeatedly for recounts. 11 recounts thus far. The vote count at this station won’t be official until recounts end. https://t.co/RIuuhr5tSt
Big news of day: Erdoğan has lost round 1 of Turkey’s presidential election. Though state-controlled Anadolu News Agency shows him at just above 50%, it’s missing 10M votes from opposition strongholds. Only unknown: Will Kılıçdaroğlu clear 50%?

 

#1415
There are a lot of disinformation about the Turkey elections vote count. Let me explain, bear with me1- Votes are counted in individual polling stations and each party get the results and submit them to their own database 2- Then the bags full of ballots carried to districts
5- That’s why opposition leaning Anka news agency is able to publish data for the 97.8 percent of the ballot boxes, because the information is directly coming from the polling stations, the first stage where the parties collect their initial results.
8- And that’s why you have people carrying bags of ballots are waiting outside the Provincial Electoral Board in Diyarbakir 9- There would be ultimate objections which will be remedied in the next five days ENDS

My brain hurts

#1417

It looks like Erdoghan will still get around 49% of the vote. The guy at 5%, Ogan, is an ultra nationalist, pro-Russia nutjob. Seems unlikely those votes flip to Kilicdaroglu.

#1419
Erdogan the Turkish 🇹🇷 President has won the 1st round of voting, but did not get 50% of the vote. The run-off will occur on May 28thCurrent Results: (Votes)Erdogan: 49.4% (26.1 million)Kilicdaroglu: 44.9% (23.7 million)Ogan: 5.3% (2.8 million)Uncounted: 3.5% (2.4 million)

 

#1420
33 minutes ago, The Dog said:
Erdogan the Turkish 🇹🇷 President has won the 1st round of voting, but did not get 50% of the vote. The run-off will occur on May 28thCurrent Results: (Votes)Erdogan: 49.4% (26.1 million)Kilicdaroglu: 44.9% (23.7 million)Ogan: 5.3% (2.8 million)Uncounted: 3.5% (2.4 million)

 

A good portion of the Turkish opposition wasn't thrilled with Kilicdaroglu and thought he wasn't a strong enough candidate to win. Looks like they were correct.

#1421

Russians need Erdogan in there to keep playing games with Sweden, although it’s a moot point since Sweden integrated part of its military with NATO partners.

#1422
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians need Erdogan in there to keep playing games with Sweden, although it’s a moot point since Sweden integrated part of its military with NATO partners.

Erdogan has said he’ll approve Sweden after the election. He don’t give a fuck.

#1423
13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Erdogan has said he’ll approve Sweden after the election. He don’t give a fuck.

He’s also accused the US or meddling in this election.  Don’t trust him one bit.

#1424
Thanks God. This huge JUI-F crowd remained peaceful today in front of Supreme Court of Pakistan. A message was conveyed to Chief Justice that there are many crowd pullers in Pakistan other than ⁦@ImranKhanPTI⁩ and ⁦@MoulanaOfficial⁩ is one of them.

 

#1425

This is a great sign...

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/business/argentina-interest-rates-inflation/index.html

The Central Bank of Argentina raised its key interest rate Monday by six percentage points to 97% in an effort to tackle soaring inflation that has reached 30-year highs.

Central banks across the globe are struggling to rein in inflation, but it’s a particular problem in Argentina, where the annual inflation rate soared above 100% last month.

#1427
16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just saw a blurb that four members of the US Embassy in Nigeria were killed..

@InkaUtexas  know anybody down that way?

Not direct, but that is a hard country. 

And yes, BBC confirmed. two US Consular officers killed with two others. Could be the driver and interpreter. Embassies work with so many locals at all levels and they get overlooked. 

Sucks, may they all be in peace. 

#1428
56 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not direct, but that is a hard country. 

And yes, BBC confirmed. two US Consular officers killed with two others. Could be the driver and interpreter. Embassies work with so many locals at all levels and they get overlooked. 

Sucks, may they all be in peace. 

Clarification. Two non-US employees and two security personnel. No Americans. Still humans in service for the US and Nigeria. 

#1429

Department of State comment on the attack. I am really surprised if there was not one American present. Odd that we would send only host country nationals to inspect a US project. 

Unknown assailants yesterday attacked a convoy of two U.S. government vehicles in the Ogbaru Local Government Area of Anambra state, Nigeria. The convoy was carrying nine Nigerian nationals: five employees of the U.S. Mission to Nigeria and four members of the Nigeria Police Force. They were traveling in advance of a planned visit by U.S. Mission personnel to a U.S.-funded flood response project in Anambra.

We do not yet know the motive for the attack, but we have no indications at this time that it was targeted against our Mission. The assailants killed at least four members of the convoy, and U.S. Mission personnel are working urgently with Nigerian counterparts to ascertain the location and condition of the members of the convoy who are unaccounted for.

We condemn in the strongest terms this attack. We will work closely with our Nigerian law enforcement colleagues in seeking to bring those responsible to justice.

The United States has no greater priority than the safety and security of our personnel. We express our heartfelt condolences to the families of those killed in the attack, and pledge to do everything possible to safely recover those who remain missing. We deeply value our relationship with our Locally Employed Staff and our partnership with Nigeria.

The United States reaffirms its commitment to the people of Nigeria to assist in the fight against violence and insecurity.

  • 2 weeks later...
#1430

Water rights.

Background on the situation between Iran and Afghanistan.In short, water rights.https://t.co/dRprWxJB8G

 

#1432
Reports from Turkey are saying the voter turnout for the second round of voting is low by Turkish standards.

Which side does that bode best for?
#1435

LOL, it’s so fucking wild that this place is a NATO member. For East is East, and West is West…..
 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan handed out money to supporters outside the polling station where he cast his ballot in the runoff election https://t.co/DM7VCR8xW5

 

#1436
10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Water rights.

Background on the situation between Iran and Afghanistan.In short, water rights.https://t.co/dRprWxJB8G

 

Wisky's for drinkin', water's for fightin'.

#1437
On 5/28/2023 at 1:23 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Water rights.

Background on the situation between Iran and Afghanistan.In short, water rights.https://t.co/dRprWxJB8G

 

So this is real. The amount of water diverted from the Helmand River was crazy. Add to that the creation of the Karjaki dam. South of Nimroz province is a salt flat that used to be a pretty cool wetland. 

Watch the Southern part of Iran. I really expect to see a Sunni led insurgency flare up and the Shia's in Afghanistan to get hammered by the Talibs. Herat is going to be lit. 

#1438
If there's one video you need to watch about the recent events in northern Kosovo, it's this.American NATO soldier tells the truth about the attacks on NATO soldiers to the face of Srpska Lista senior officials.Srpska Lista is directly controlled by Serbia's regime.

 

#1439
Uganda says 54 African Union peacekeepers killed in Somalia attack https://t.co/LwobTSYGil

 

  • 2 weeks later...
#1440

School attack in Uganda. Damn.... 

Kampala, UgandaCNN — 

Armed rebels attacked a school in western Uganda, killing at least 41 people, mostly students, and abducting six others, Ugandan officials have said. 

Some were hacked to death with machetes while others died when their dormitories were set on fire, military spokesman Felix Kulayigye told CNN.

About 20 members of the ISIS-linked Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group attacked the Lhubirira secondary school late on Friday, according to Uganda’s military. 

The school is situated along Uganda’s border with Congo in the town of Kasese, and educates children between the ages of 13 and 18. Of the dead, 39 were students and two were from the local community, local officials said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/17/africa/uganda-school-attack-25-dead-intl-hnk/index.html

#1441

Austria trying to go the Hungary route.

During a recent visit to Budapest, where he met w his mentor Orbán, Kickl made no secret of his aim to turn Austria into another Hungary, which he praised as a “refuge of national self-determination&resistance against globalist intervention from Brussels.” https://t.co/M1Q8chjmKu

 

  • 3 weeks later...
#1442
On 8/18/2022 at 3:37 PM, Humble Beast said:

How do you think we would stop Chinese exports? Physical blockade?
 

If Russia can re route their exports then I’m sure the #2 economy would manage. 

As far as what they import, I think if we try to sanction what they import, especially from other countries then we should expect a tit for tat there that will be extremely disruptive to the global economy and our economy. Acting like we’ll just sanction China and that will show them is naive imo. We depend on each other too much. Mutually assured destruction?
 

If we want to stop them from taking Taiwan when the time comes, we have to be ready to get our military involved directly. The Ukraine/Russia playbook will not work imo. 
 

That’s great, but now if you want to expel them it’s going to take a massive effort. Sanctions take time to take effect and don’t always have the effect you think they will. See: Russian income/current account, and Ruble strength.
 

Also, China can prepare for sanctions. We’ve telegraphed what we’ll do. I believe they have the largest grain stockpiles in the world. I shared the article a while back about new oil shipping tankers/routes that a mystery Chinese entity is creating. All I’m saying is if you think sanctions will be a meaningful deterrent or have a big effect on the outcome of any conflict with China I think you’re mistaken. 

What ruble strength doing? 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.07b77f67527774693e9ba84125ba3cd7.jpeg

#1444
1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Food prices up 65.9% in Egypt. Inflation at 35%. Ouch. 

Russia is trying to fuck around and find out by screwing with Ukrainian food shipments, which even if those shipments aren't headed to North Africa or the Middle East still affects prices and overall availability.  Their Wagner operations in various areas could go south really fast, as well as in Syria.

#1445
A conflict is brewing between Iran and Russia after the Russian Federation supported the UAE in a territorial dispute with Tehran.Three islands: Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb have been controlled by Iran since 1971, but they are also claimed by the United Arab…

 

 

#1446
On 7/10/2023 at 9:35 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is trying to fuck around and find out by screwing with Ukrainian food shipments, which even if those shipments aren't headed to North Africa or the Middle East still affects prices and overall availability.  Their Wagner operations in various areas could go south really fast, as well as in Syria.

Except most of the leadership where Wagner is operating does not really give much care to their population. If they starve, they starve. food is a weapon across Africa. 

#1448

India has had a lot of recent problems - monsoons this year, drought/heat waves last year. I could see them getting nervous about feeding their people.

#1449

Israel heating up as Netanyahu gets his pacemaker put in.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-752051

Quote

Some 10,000 reservists from throughout the IDF will no longer show up for service, they announced in a press conference on Saturday evening, according to N12.

These reservists are joining more than 1,000 Air Force reservists who made the same announcement in a letter on Friday.

Quote

"This is one of the most difficult evenings for the State of Israel, but it's also one of the most important in the state's history," said Brothers in Arms leader Eyal Neve. "We represent some 10,000 reservists who are telling the government, the defense minister and the prime minister the responsibility is on you! If you want us on your side as we've served under right and left wing governments, we are calling on you to stop the legislation."

Quote

"I've served om the Air Force for 35 years," said a former fighter pilot. "The people in the force are my family, and this is a difficult day for us. The deep commitment to Judaism and democracy is the inner fuel of our engine. Our statement is clear: If the government violates the basic values and becomes a dictatorship, we won't serve."

Quote

"We are fighting for the dearest thing to us so that our kids can continue to live here," said another Brothers in Arms leader Ron Sheref. "This government is fighting against the state's values and against the spirit of the IDF. There is an incredible list here of people from all the units. Everyone here is the people of Israel who only want to go back to living in a democratic country without waking up every morning with someone threatening them and their basic values."

Quote

 a group of former IDF, Israel Police, Mossad, and Shin Bet chiefs backed up the decision in a letter that was sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday.

Quote

"We hold you accountable for the hard hit to the IDF and security in Israel," they wrote to Netanyahu. "Israel's government in your leadership is advancing legislation while completely ignoring the damage to Israeli democracy."

The reservists were also defended by former IDF chief of staff MK Gadi Eisenkot who said they weren't refusniks. He also voiced that he blames Netanyahu for the situation and added that reservists have the right to stop volunteering for service.

11,000 reservists may not seem like a big deal, but Israel is a country of 9 million, with reservists making up around 460,000 and if things continue, a lot more reservists will quit:

Quote

Earlier this week, the IDF put out a statement saying that despite the reservists' protest, the army was still ready for war, but N12 reported on Saturday evening that IDF Chief of Staff said that if the reasonableness standard bill passes, the army's readiness will be significantly damaged within 48 hours. The IDF later denied this.

The bill:

Quote

The "reasonableness standard bill" is an amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary, that would block Israel's courts from applying what is known as the "reasonableness standard" to decisions made by elected officials. The reasonableness standard is a common law doctrine that allows for judicial review against government administrative decisions that are deemed beyond the scope of what a responsible and reasonable authority would undertake.

May not seem like a big deal, but a shitload of people have been protesting and if it is pushed through, may not be a full-on civil war, but a massive chunk of Israel will be in the streets, and the military will be impacted - there's only 170,000 Israelis on active-duty.

Israelis are extremely polarized over this.  It's seen by many as a coup against the judiciary by Netanyahu.

These are protests from the past few weeks, and just a few of the protests

545727

2023-07-08T191037Z_2063127520_RC27Z1AEMW

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo

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