June 29, 20223 yr 18 minutes ago, phdhorn said: Updated. These weather models do what they almost always predict for a Texas landfall. They show it going towards Corpus and then, never mind going to Houston/SE Texas to where South Texas and up the Hill Country are on the dry side and it gets super hot thanks to this And Houston gets 15 inches of rain.... There is a reason south of Port O Connor, landfalling tropical systems are as common as many think. Edited June 29, 20223 yr by Nueces River Rat
June 29, 20223 yr Author From the pro Mets I follow, the TVCN model is the one to follow for track. That really sucks for the Highland Lakes.
June 29, 20223 yr Yeah, I don't think anyone here is set on an Austin big rain event, and you're right... the huge majority of these early-season Gulf-forming storms almost always go NE there are sound reasons for that, too, nagonnatellemherenow. The only reason why this one could is that the frontal boundary that's now more or less burnt out NW of the storm might still have enough juice to draw it in and interact. But this storm was originally forecast to be a coast-hugger, so nothing is that out of whack with the models. If it gets enough mass it could bully its way NW ward as well, but dunno. Since the front broke up the high ridge which would normally chew this thing up and spit it out, and the high isn't re-settled yet, there's a tinker's chance. But right now it's pretty much a coin toss.
June 29, 20223 yr Nothing like the prospect of watching the eastern counties get 4-7" of rainfall when knowing if the storm took the same path just 50-75 miles to the east, some of the Highlands could easily go up 10-15' in a matter of days.
June 29, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, TXLNGHRN10 said: Is there still a chance??? Why do you do this to yourself?
July 1, 20223 yr ... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.
July 1, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, phdhorn said: ... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend. Need that baby to make a hard turn north right near the southern tip of Baja and ride up through the desert and eventually dump .10" rain on us.
July 2, 20223 yr 11 hours ago, phdhorn said: ... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend. Just the tip sir, just the tip.....
July 2, 20223 yr Surprise tropical storm popped up over the South Carolina coast overnight. Became a storm while the center was over land.
July 2, 20223 yr Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun. Nope, no hurricane so far. Edited July 2, 20223 yr by phdhorn
July 2, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, phdhorn said: Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun. Nope, no hurricane so far. Any Snoop Dog or Bad Bunny? Edited July 2, 20223 yr by clapclapclap playa
August 1, 20223 yr Author I can already tell you that if something does develop, it will go into Louisiana.
August 1, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, Orange&White said: Here is some "Way-too-early-to-get-excited" wishful thinking from the GFS Yeah, the ol' go into Houston/New Orleans so Austin gets hotter and drier special. Why would we get excited about that?
August 1, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said: Yeah, the ol' go into Houston/New Orleans so Austin gets hotter and drier special. Why would we get excited about that? IDK...would this one help you get your tampon unstuck?
August 4, 20223 yr Looks like the season got downgraded slightly. Now predicting 18 tropical storms - down from 21 4 category 1 or 2 hurricanes (down from as many as 10) 4 category 3, 4 or 5 (down from 6)
August 4, 20223 yr On 8/1/2022 at 10:03 AM, Orange&White said: IDK...would this one help you get your tampon unstuck? So when's that happening? Oh wait. It's not.
August 4, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said: So when's that happening? Oh wait. It's not. It's like you didn't even read what I wrote in the original post, dumbfuck.
August 4, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, Orange&White said: It's like you didn't even read what I wrote in the original post, dumbfuck. LOL
August 8, 20223 yr Author There is finally a little something to talk about. Some models show this moving more west later if it survives the next few days. It's just something to keep an eye out for now. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin
August 8, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, Hate said: There is finally a little something to talk about. Some models show this moving more west later if it survives the next few days. It's just something to keep an eye out for now.
August 8, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, BabaYaga said: Be careful what you ask for, knowing the timeline that we're in. Are we much more likely to get a massive storm that fucks up Matagorda to New Orleans, and only drops a shitload of rain right where we don't need it, also causing airflow to make all points west of there get up to 110 degrees? Yes, yes we are. Pay attention to how shit is going.
August 18, 20223 yr Cross-posted in 3 threads: The weather pattern has absolutely begun to change. As in seasonal. We might get heat/dry back, but this ain't no 1 day reprieve. This is a huge shift. It doesn't mean the end of summer, but it might be very difficult to return to it like it's been.Rain for most of us starting tomorrow, good daily chances for at least next 7 days if not longer.Temps are gonna go down a good bit somewhere low-mid 90's most days. We might not even hit 90 Friday and somewhere within a few days after. The "Gulf thing" (tropics) will help enhance rain chances and moderate temps, even if it doesn't spin up. This one will affect CenTex more than the thing yesterday. Yes, Virginia, summer as we've known it is over, at least for now and waaay into next week. We'll see what September has to say about it.
August 19, 20223 yr Thing in the BoC at 70% to develop into something. Still expected to churn into NE Mexico tomorrow night though.
August 19, 20223 yr I hope this August reprieve means that we're gonna have a Texas OU game with kickoff temps in the 40s.
August 19, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, TornACL said: I hope this August reprieve means that we're gonna have a Texas OU game with kickoff temps in the 40s. For sure. 40 Celsius.
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