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7 hours ago, RPM said:

Power is out all across PR.

 

 

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  • Kyrie Eleison
    Kyrie Eleison

    hustle never sleeps...  

  • Ogie Ogilthorpe
    Ogie Ogilthorpe

    Still no power but we have internet. First generator died. Friend gave me their generator since they have power back so house is powered but no ac (too much draw on generator).     a few of our

  • Update. We evacuated this morning. The good news is that if we get past the 3 am high tide the house will survive as will the wine.  We are now safe in Miami.    The bad news is that friends ac

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43 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

GOM Sept 29 👀

^ he's talking about the Euro model having a strong Cat 2 in the eastern gulf on 9/29.

I ain't skeered of any model prediction 10 days away, personally.

  • Author

I think the GFS has it making landfall on the Yucatán and then again in Houston.

14 hours ago, Hate said:

I think the GFS has it making landfall on the Yucatán and then again in Houston.

that big "H" says fuck off with that shit..........

texas (2).jpg

  • Author

That big H is supposed to move east by the time that storm makes it into the GOM…maybe.

10 day model runs - c'mon y'all, do better.  Want to see where the 10 day model runs had Fiona?  Florida devastation, yo.

  • Author

Yeah, the “cold front” early next week should push this East, but you never know.

It's not coming here...

98L_tracks_latest.png

98L_geps_latest.png

storm_98.gif

 

But, whoever gets it... may really get it...

98L_intensity_latest.png

Edited by texasdago

  • Author

He_s_coming_right_at_us_Airplane.gif

  • Author

It's still too early to tell exactly where this will end up.  For those who remember Ike, they will know to never say never.

 

Edit:  I can't get the gif to post, but here it is in case anyone wants to check it out.  Basically the gif shows how quickly the forecast track can change...and how quickly.

Quote

AL092008_5W_041_0.GIF

Edited by Hate

9 hours ago, Hate said:

It's still too early to tell exactly where this will end up.  For those who remember Ike, they will know to never say never.

 

Edit:  I can't get the gif to post, but here it is in case anyone wants to check it out.  Basically the gif shows how quickly the forecast track can change...and how quickly.

AL092008_5W_041_0.GIF

Wanna bet its not coming anywhere west of Bolivar?

The 10 day advance models and the fear mongering associated with said models normally piss me off.  But these models have been moving steadily west since last weekend.  First it was directly over the Keys and Naples.  Now this morning it is near Lake Charles.  This late in the season, most storms are picked up by remnant cold fronts and carried away to the east.  This one seems to be an anomoly and will be interesting to watch.

 

  • Author
Wanna bet its not coming anywhere west of Bolivar?

Absolutely not. I’m not predicting landfall or any impact to Texas. All I do is pass on what I read from some professional meteorologists I follow. It most likely won’t end up in Texas, but it can’t be completely ruled out yet. Ike wasn’t supposed to hit Houston, but it did. Harvey wasn’t even supposed to be a storm, but it developed in to a huge storm.

dc9a8716ef3b7e95d2a2c8aa7388d327.jpg
That is the latest GFS which develops this storm into a monster if it makes I into the gulf. Someone along the Gulf Coast could be dealing with a huge storm.
2 hours ago, Hate said:


Absolutely not. I’m not predicting landfall or any impact to Texas. All I do is pass on what I read from some professional meteorologists I follow. It most likely won’t end up in Texas, but it can’t be completely ruled out yet. Ike wasn’t supposed to hit Houston, but it did. Harvey wasn’t even supposed to be a storm, but it developed in to a huge storm.

dc9a8716ef3b7e95d2a2c8aa7388d327.jpg
That is the latest GFS which develops this storm into a monster if it makes I into the gulf. Someone along the Gulf Coast could be dealing with a huge storm.

Yes, that's the GFS but its just one model run and if you look at the various models, the greatest majority of them do not put anything there.  In fact, I'm sure the meteorologists you follow will tell you... don't look at one model run and certainly be skeptical of model runs that are 8 days out.  That one shows one scenario 8 days from now.  I think the Space City Guys do a good job of explaining this:

https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sees-upper-90s-for-five-more-days-before-a-front-and-keeping-an-eye-on-the-tropics/

 

As for Harvey, here's the Space City guys speculating on what might become of Harvey and you can see the signaling about potential issue with steering...

https://spacecityweather.com/yeah-this-weekend-is-looking-wet-for-texas/

https://spacecityweather.com/texas-faces-a-tropical-threat-later-this-week-heavy-rains-possible/

These guys - not just Space City - are pretty good at nailing locations these days and if you look at the predicted track, they were starting to get pretty close

https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-redevelops-in-southern-gulf-will-bring-major-rains-to-texas/

Preponderance of models still have it hooking...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

  

  • Author

Jesus dude.  What part of could is lost in translation here?  I follow several pro mets that talk about these storms as they are occurring.  Some of them point out from time to time that the models are wrong, especially when we don't even have a "storm" yet.  Put my posts on ignore if the bother you.  I'm not recommending anybody beginning to board up their house on Bolivar or that they cancel vacation plans on the Yucatan.  I'm posting because this stuff interests me. 

 

In regards to Harvey, many called it dead a week before the link of the SCW guys you posted because the models called it dead.  I posted about it on Shaggy that it was something that could happen (uh oh, there's that word again) because that's what the mets I follow were saying.

Models have it coming back to SW Florida this morning. Waiting to see the panic start around here.

  • Author

Yeah, if I were anywhere in the Florida peninsula area, I might go ahead and start loading up on supplies and checking my generator.  One thing I always do when a storm is likely to hit our area is buy a window unit and leave it in the packaging.  I return it if I don't need it, but at least I have it if I need it.
 
Here is the latest HWRF model.

2a52ea1004e0f9d2790c6d292da0e608.jpg

44 minutes ago, Hate said:

One thing I always do when a storm is likely to hit our area is buy a window unit and leave it in the packaging.  I return it if I don't need it, but at least I have it if I need it.

I assume you need a window unit because your main A/C is out of order.  I also assume the main A/C is kaput because you don't have power.  If you ain't got no power then what's a window unit going to do for you?

  • Author

Hence the generator.

Hence the generator.

Yeah I thought that was pretty explanatory. Didn’t know it needed to be said lol.

Officially TD9 now. Nada for Texas but Tampa better watch their cornhole.

20 hours ago, Hate said:

Jesus dude.  What part of could is lost in translation here?  I follow several pro mets that talk about these storms as they are occurring.  Some of them point out from time to time that the models are wrong, especially when we don't even have a "storm" yet.  Put my posts on ignore if the bother you.  I'm not recommending anybody beginning to board up their house on Bolivar or that they cancel vacation plans on the Yucatan.  I'm posting because this stuff interests me. 

 

In regards to Harvey, many called it dead a week before the link of the SCW guys you posted because the models called it dead.  I posted about it on Shaggy that it was something that could happen (uh oh, there's that word again) because that's what the mets I follow were saying.

Sorry about that... as someone with a lingering bit of Harvey PTSD (not much at all anymore since I got the F out of Houston), I always get flustered with people that show a random model run showing direct impacts on New Orleans or Houston or whatever... if you follow guys like that, they are posting clickbait.  I know people who lose it when they think a big one is coming after going through Harvey.  Shoot... I knew people who would just cry when it rained they were so messed up so the single model run "experts" really piss me off.

That said, Levi's about to start putting out some content.  Not looking good for SW FL.

 

  

Edited by texasdago

Does "M" stand for motherfucker? 

  • Author
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Sorry about that... as someone with a lingering bit of Harvey PTSD (not much at all anymore since I got the F out of Houston), I always get flustered with people that show a random model run showing direct impacts on New Orleans or Houston or whatever... if you follow guys like that, they are posting clickbait.  I know people who lose it when they think a big one is coming after going through Harvey.  Shoot... I knew people who would just cry when it rained they were so messed up so the single model run "experts" really piss me off.

That said, Levi's about to start putting out some content.  Not looking good for SW FL.

 

  

Yeah and I have Ike PTSD. I remember watching it for a while when it was Florida storm, and then a Louisiana storm, and then South Texas storm before making a b-line for the I-45 corridor. I was without power for 15 days and we had a one month old. That sucked. Ever since then, if there is a storm in the GOM, I pay attention until it actually is 24-36 from landfall. Harvey wasn’t that bad for us. Our neighborhood flooded so we couldn’t leave, but I was pretty well stocked with food and liquor so we just partied. There wasn’t anything else we could do. We only lost power once the storm has passed and it cooled off. No big deal.

 

1 hour ago, Dewey said:

Does "M" stand for motherfucker? 

Major…meaning Cat 3 or higher.

14 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah and I have Ike PTSD. I remember watching it for a while when it was Florida storm, and then a Louisiana storm, and then South Texas storm before making a b-line for the I-45 corridor. I was without power for 15 days and we had a one month old. That sucked. Ever since then, if there is a storm in the GOM, I pay attention until it actually is 24-36 from landfall. Harvey wasn’t that bad for us. Our neighborhood flooded so we couldn’t leave, but I was pretty well stocked with food and liquor so we just partied. There wasn’t anything else we could do. We only lost power once the storm has passed and it cooled off. No big deal.

 

Major…meaning Cat 3 or higher.

Sounds like Ike for us... we escaped relatively unscathed but two weeks with no power with a one-year old.  We spent a lot of time at my parents who lost power for a grand total of four hours.  Their house was also high and dry which was our "evacuation house" during/after Harvey.  Don't miss any of that garbage.  Thank God Rita turned, too.

Will y’all please stop talking about Harvey. I ended up homeless for about 3 years. Kthxby.

I've got a couple of crews on a big project in Fla right now.  About right on this snakebit project.  

Levi Cowan is worth listening to.  I've followed him for some time.  He's made a believer outta me.  His dissertation yesterday stated the landfall locating would be more probable once the storm was due south of Jamaica.  He had two probabilities at the time.  One, curving over towards Florida and the second was more towards Texas/Louisiana.  All of this was dependent on a trough making its way down from the Great Lakes area.

45 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Levi Cowan is worth listening to.  I've followed him for some time.  He's made a believer outta me.  His dissertation yesterday stated the landfall locating would be more probable once the storm was due south of Jamaica.  He had two probabilities at the time.  One, curving over towards Florida and the second was more towards Texas/Louisiana.  All of this was dependent on a trough making its way down from the Great Lakes area.

Levi is so good.

And the details in his videos are perfect for a weather novice.

^^ 100 percent this.  If ya' can stick it out and take the time to listen and pay attention he'll teach ya' something.  I like him because he just gives so much more info than the local guys.  They only have so much time to get in the weather before a commercial breaks.

I have meetings scheduled in Miami on Monday and Tuesday. Would I be a complete moron if I tried flying in Sunday evening and out Tuesday late afternoon?

8 minutes ago, Seger78 said:

I have meetings scheduled in Miami on Monday and Tuesday. Would I be a complete moron if I tried flying in Sunday evening and out Tuesday late afternoon?

 

hurricanes are not joke and this one could be a monster. I'm surprised they haven't canceled on their end. 

Billy Gardell Reaction GIF by CBS

Edited by tx 3 putt

Latest update from NHC has Ian heading more towards the FL panhandle, coming onshore due south of Tallahassee. 

AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

 

More time to develop if hitting panhandle. Surge and tornadoes will be a given

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

13 minutes ago, hornian said:

I hope Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ian takes out Florida's Governor (No CR). Do your thing, namesake hurricane, do your thing. 

Hey me too.  Namesake and everything. 

  • Author
I hope Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ian takes out Florida's Governor (No CR). Do your thing, namesake hurricane, do your thing. 

And then continues up the coast and takes out all the politicians…oh, I forgot /no cr.

Keep the goddamn politics in the Cr. Start a thread in there of Hurricanes or tropical storms that I hope takes out (insert hated politician).

Well, I see all of the fancy Schmancy hurricane graphics and maps, but until I hear it from the real expert, Frankie MacDonald, I ain't buying it....

This damn storm isn’t going to let me close on selling lot on 30A. If anything the hurricane could help clear out some undergrowth. 
 

I’m worried the buyer is going to realize he is a dumbass for paying what he agreed to pay. Bama grad so it’s only fair. 

On 9/24/2022 at 3:57 PM, Seger78 said:

I have meetings scheduled in Miami on Monday and Tuesday. Would I be a complete moron if I tried flying in Sunday evening and out Tuesday late afternoon?

I was scheduled to be there Tuesday said fuck that and now going to be at our LA office. Don't risk it

Latest models run show it turning more east now. Tampa is not going go do well if they take a direct hit. 4d4c8a47fbbf4d5c0d28a31225917cb1.jpg

  • Author

Yeah, Tamps is fucked if the track is correct.  Over 12 hours of being on the "dirty" side of a major hurricane is not good.

102341_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

2 hours ago, Hate said:

Yeah, Tamps is fucked if the track is correct.  Over 12 hours of being on the "dirty" side of a major hurricane is not good.

102341_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Dude... Tuesday through Friday just pummeling that area.  F that.  That's awful.

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