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In-laws are 11 miles east of Bradenton just north of the Manatee River. They’re riding it out because, “got the storm shutters up”. Hard headed MFr’s. 

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  • Kyrie Eleison
    Kyrie Eleison

    hustle never sleeps...  

  • Ogie Ogilthorpe
    Ogie Ogilthorpe

    Still no power but we have internet. First generator died. Friend gave me their generator since they have power back so house is powered but no ac (too much draw on generator).     a few of our

  • Update. We evacuated this morning. The good news is that if we get past the 3 am high tide the house will survive as will the wine.  We are now safe in Miami.    The bad news is that friends ac

Posted Images

14 hours ago, UnivTex34 said:

image.thumb.png.4097465545055a1469d5df11349b11a6.png

A good friend of mine lives on the “a” in Bradenton on that map. 

Our Cliff Claven left Friday for a week of fishing near Tampa. Hope he stays the whole week.

  • Author
We're sticking it out in Naples.  Forecasts have shown us in the tropical storm range but this southerly trend does have me worried.  The next county up (Lee County) has an evacuation order in for zone A and B.  We are in zone A in Collier County so it's a little close for comfort right now but it would take a significant wobble to the east for us to get the big storm surge.  Right now we're predicted at 3-5'.

You might want to rethink that. I don’t think you want anything to do with a Cat 4 storm.

Yeah, this thing tracking way more east than models expected yesterday. Still not a lot of agreement, but the UKMET looks terrible for you guys in Naples.

HWRF still has a Tampa landing, but that is after Ian drags his balls all down the coast first.

Good luck to all in Florida. For sure it is going to be nasty. 

Anyone build a blue shed yet?

 

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Anyone build a blue shed yet?

You don't build a blue shed, sir; the blue shed builds you.

On 9/23/2022 at 7:39 PM, fattyflattie said:

I've got a couple of crews on a big project in Fla right now.  About right on this snakebit project.  

Hope you have a nice builder’s risk policy on it.  

Good luck to all in Florida. For sure it is going to be nasty. 
Anyone build a blue shed yet?
 

Is Jeff on his way?
13 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

Shit. Stacking within the three day is no good. 
 

 

This track is literally my entire territory for work.  Not sure who I'm gonna call this week.

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This track is literally my entire territory for work.  Not sure who I'm gonna call this week.

ghostbusters GIF

We haven't left yet but I do have a hotel booked in Miami. The stickler is that we have two 80 lb dogs and it's going to be miserable for us either way. Our street can take up to a 9-10 ft surge before it gets wet. We are forecast for 5-8' which I know is a little close for comfort. My friends across Vanderbilt Beach Rd on the fingers are fucked if it gets to 8'.

We will continue to watch the forecast and will make a decision by 7 PM. A northward trend would be good for us but then I feel for those poor people up north. A lot of people are going to get fucked by this storm.

Right now I am leaning heavily towards going but we do have some time to watch the forecast. The drive to Miami right now is only about 15 minutes longer than normal so that isn't a huge concern yet.

IMO, I would get on the road asap. I think this will be a Ft Myers storm.

Buncha nerds at the below links. Although they DO want worst case scenarios, there is some really valuable info in the "Discussion" and "Models" threads.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123005&start=3380

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=123007&start=3240

Yup, most of my info coming from there at this point. Still lots model disagreement. 

Just announce parts of zone C evacuation in Lee County

Just finished putting up the last shutter (left one of the sliders open - will put it up before I go to bed tonight),

We are staying. I am far enough inland that storm surge won't be an issue.

Schools in Collier now canceled through Thursday.

Rain pretyy steady now but no wind yet.

Here is a cam at Southern Most Point in KW, getting rougher for sure.

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ 

Naples Pier cam still calm

https://naplespanorama.org/

Man, I feel for y'all on the Gulf coast of Florida.  

Head on a swivel, watch your six, stay frosty, etc.

1 hour ago, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

Just announce parts of zone C evacuation in Lee County

Just finished putting up the last shutter (left one of the sliders open - will put it up before I go to bed tonight),

We are staying. I am far enough inland that storm surge won't be an issue.

Schools in Collier now canceled through Thursday.

Rain pretyy steady now but no wind yet.

Here is a cam at Southern Most Point in KW, getting rougher for sure.

https://southernmostpointwebcam.com/ 

Naples Pier cam still calm

https://naplespanorama.org/

Hey, here's Darwinism in real time.

2022-09-27_15-15-48

 

1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

We haven't left yet but I do have a hotel booked in Miami. The stickler is that we have two 80 lb dogs and it's going to be miserable for us either way. Our street can take up to a 9-10 ft surge before it gets wet. We are forecast for 5-8' which I know is a little close for comfort. My friends across Vanderbilt Beach Rd on the fingers are fucked if it gets to 8'.

We will continue to watch the forecast and will make a decision by 7 PM. A northward trend would be good for us but then I feel for those poor people up north. A lot of people are going to get fucked by this storm.

Right now I am leaning heavily towards going but we do have some time to watch the forecast. The drive to Miami right now is only about 15 minutes longer than normal so that isn't a huge concern yet.

You don’t want any part of a cat 4 storm. Fuck the surge you are looking at 8 plus hrs of hurricane force winds. 

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

This track is literally my entire territory for work.  Not sure who I'm gonna call this week.

FEMA.  They will be the only ones working in your territory.

For those of y'all staying put in Florida, buckle up, and here's wishing you the best.

ALSO, a hint my family learned during Ike: take tupperware containers, fill them with water, and put them in your freezer.  Those will give you blocks of ice to keep drinks and such cold for several days (and will keep your freezer from thawing out, if you can get power back in 2-3 days).  It's gonna be the "hot and humid weather, with no AC" that wears on you the most, presuming that your property survives major damage.  Cold drinks and ice blocks help buy you a few days.

Make sure all your backup batteries for phones and such are fully charged, too.  That also buys you several days of communications without having to charge them out at your running car.

Good luck, guys.  And F hurricanes.

13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Hey, here's Darwinism in real time.

2022-09-27_15-15-48

 

Can’t stop watching this “hold my beer” crew. 
Watching for the fat ass in the poncho to get swept away by sneaker waves. Fucking morons.

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For those of y'all staying put in Florida, buckle up, and here's wishing you the best.

ALSO, a hint my family learned during Ike: take tupperware containers, fill them with water, and put them in your freezer.  Those will give you blocks of ice to keep drinks and such cold for several days (and will keep your freezer from thawing out, if you can get power back in 2-3 days).  It's gonna be the "hot and humid weather, with no AC" that wears on you the most, presuming that your property survives major damage.  Cold drinks and ice blocks help buy you a few days.

Make sure all your backup batteries for phones and such are fully charged, too.  That also buys you several days of communications without having to charge them out at your running car.

Good luck, guys.  And F hurricanes.

as much water in the fridge as possible as well. lots of thermal mass to keep stuff cooler, longer. 

 

edit: also leave your wireless thermometer probe in there so you can monitor the temp (wired might be ok though it does break the seal there a bit)

Edited by elfenix

2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

as much water in the fridge as possible as well. lots of thermal mass to keep stuff cooler, longer. 

. . . and when the power goes out, don't open the fridge/freezer doors for the usual "stare and eventually select" game.  Know what's in there, grab it, shut those doors pronto.

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . and when the power goes out, don't open the fridge/freezer doors for the usual "stare and eventually select" game.  Know what's in there, grab it, shut those doors pronto.

You could have just said "don't let your wife and kids touch the fridge."

37 minutes ago, Marshall_Lucky said:

Can’t stop watching this “hold my beer” crew. 
Watching for the fat ass in the poncho to get swept away by sneaker waves. Fucking morons.

Naples still looks pretty calm. A few swimmers in the web cam.

 

 

Hey, here's Darwinism in real time.
LWR_Recording.png  

Getting dumber.

eb67267335a6d100ab3f40bcf6f852e0.jpg

Gulf of of Naples is eerily flat

2 minutes ago, heso said:


Getting dumber.

eb67267335a6d100ab3f40bcf6f852e0.jpg

No one there now, either KWPD shut it down or they got washed out to sea

26 minutes ago, heso said:


Getting dumber.

eb67267335a6d100ab3f40bcf6f852e0.jpg

That dipshit has the southernmost IQ in the United States.

Any good storm chaser links?

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Hope you have a nice builder’s risk policy on it.  

Always. It’s well qualified for storms. But fuck man it’s just a pain. 

This made me laugh a bit. 

image.jpeg

Reminded me of 

 

image.jpeg

Edited by Ogie Ogilthorpe

Fail Weather Man GIF - Fail Weather Man Erection GIFs

Tropical Storm JOHNson

6 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

We haven't left yet but I do have a hotel booked in Miami. The stickler is that we have two 80 lb dogs and it's going to be miserable for us either way. Our street can take up to a 9-10 ft surge before it gets wet. We are forecast for 5-8' which I know is a little close for comfort. My friends across Vanderbilt Beach Rd on the fingers are fucked if it gets to 8'.

We will continue to watch the forecast and will make a decision by 7 PM. A northward trend would be good for us but then I feel for those poor people up north. A lot of people are going to get fucked by this storm.

Right now I am leaning heavily towards going but we do have some time to watch the forecast. The drive to Miami right now is only about 15 minutes longer than normal so that isn't a huge concern yet.

Let me know if you need some support in Miami.  I got about 45 men there and some yard space, etc. 

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This is amazing.

 

G16_conus_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220927-2124.gif

And meanwhile in the GOA.

G17_conus_GEOCOLOR_12fr_20220927-2131.gif

Edited by Hate

  • Author

Latest Euro has it crossing over and hitting the South Carolina-Georgia border.  I'm going to go ahead and guess that Ian gets retired. 

 

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_fh3-84.gif

21 minutes ago, Hate said:

Latest Euro has it crossing over and hitting the South Carolina-Georgia border.  I'm going to go ahead and guess that Ian gets retired. 

 

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_fh3-84.gif

Shit, that looks like it is going to hit Nashville and maybe go up 65 to Louisville, Indianapolis, and Chicago.

11 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

We're sticking it out in Naples.  Forecasts have shown us in the tropical storm range but this southerly trend does have me worried.  The next county up (Lee County) has an evacuation order in for zone A and B.  We are in zone A in Collier County so it's a little close for comfort right now but it would take a significant wobble to the east for us to get the big storm surge.  Right now we're predicted at 3-5'.

You may have chosen....poorly:

 

Shit is gonna be bad. Man Tampa/St. Pete development over the last decade is gonna get wrecked. Supposed to head there next week for work. Our office is in a bag location if these models track right

1 hour ago, Zepol87 said:

Shit is gonna be bad. Man Tampa/St. Pete development over the last decade is gonna get wrecked. Supposed to head there next week for work. Our office is in a bag location if these models track right

Send pictures of the Strippers you tip.

Hell yea few strip clubs right by as well. From my experience in the navy the best part of hurricanes are the hurricane party with the locals and strip club hanging out after. Lipstick in Pensacola was go to spot 

Stumbled across these articles when doing a little research on which insurance companies had the greatest exposure in Florida. Sounds like there has been general fuckery going on which has caused a few companies to fail with several more on shaky ground. The highest average property insurance in the nation could be getting worse, especially if Florida gets some additional large storms later in the season. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hurricane-ian-reignites-panic-floridas-strapped-insurance-market-rcna49687

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/large-nationwide-homeowners-insurers-have-most-cat-exposure-to-hurricane-ian/

 

For when shit starts getting crazy

 

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