July 7, 20223 yr What are we thinking for 2022 opening weekend and prop bets? Week 1 for Texas vs ULMonroe - 39pt favorite with O/U at 67 in my book. To win the big 12: OU +140 UT +190 OKST +450 BAY +525
July 7, 20223 yr barring ou having some super secret breakout star, or Kstate, Baylor, ok State and Texas each all end up losing their entire starting offense. ou is NOT winning the big 12 this year. right now the best money is on Ok State and Baylor, esp with those odds. what are the Kstate odds, that might also be worth it?
July 8, 20223 yr Author Yea I actually grabbed Baylor early, though the qb situation there could be a problem. KSU is +1200
July 13, 20223 yr usually worth it to shop around for your odds, especially on futures where there are always huge discrepancies from site to site. Here's the odds from my usual site Not hugely different (with the exception of KSU at +2400)
August 2, 20223 yr i assume the 8.5 just includes regular season games right? no championship game? (although dumb question as I dont see how we would make the champ game if we only won 8 games) I see 7 wins just as easily as I see 10. it depends if the players and coaches learn how to make adjustments in the 2nd half. we all know we blew 4 games in a row where we had more than a 13 point lead in the 2nd half and even the 4th quarter and still lost the fucking game. i wouldnt touch that line. Edited August 2, 20223 yr by AUS-97HORN
August 3, 20223 yr Just starting to dig into the season win totals, and stumbled across this graphic from an article in 247: https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Blue-Chip-ratio-2022-college-football-15-teams-who-can-win-the-national-championship--190039196/#190039196_6 Factors in the transfer classes and only a couple of weeks old, so should be pretty accurate. Mapped to the odds on Draftkings because its easily searchable: Alabama - Over 10.5 -190 tOSU - Over 10.5 -205 Georgia - Over 10.5 -205 OU - Over 9.5 -110 Aggy - Over 8.5 -150 Texas - Over 8 -135 LSU - Over 7 +100 Clemson - Over 10.5 +110 ND - Over 8.5 -125 Florida - Over 7 -130 Oregon - Over 8.5 +105 Michigan - Over 9.5 -130 PSU - Over 8.5 -105 Miami - Over 8.5 +100 Auburn - Over 6.5 +130 First glance, LSU looks intriguing to me. Ive seen the number as low as 6.5 (-113) on some sites. I guess its possible that Kelly is just a terrible fit in Baton Rouge, and the faaaaamily tunes him out, but 6 out of his last 7 seasons at ND were 10+ wins. LSU non conference schedule is Florida State (@ Superdome so basically a home game), Southern (home) New Mexico (home), UAB (home). Should be 4 wins there, leaving the SEC schedule to find another 3-4 wins (Miss st, @ Auburn, Tenn, @ Florida, Ole Miss, Bama, @ Arkansas, @ A&M). Basically 8 home games with a shitload of talent, but a new head coach and a question at QB. If I get the O6.5 at -113 on my own sportsbook I'd take it, but right now its O6.5 -145 which dampens my enthusiasm somewhat. Need to make my annual trek to Barnes and Noble for the Phil Steele mag. Same conversation every year... Q: "would you like to join our membership program ($25)?" A: "Nope, I buy one thing a year from Barnes and Noble"
August 24, 20223 yr We're back motherfuckers. My favorite play of week 0: Nebraska -13 v. Northwestern (in Dublin) Last Season: Both teams 3-9. Nebraska 6th ranked SOS vs. 66th for NW Nebraska won head-to-head meeting by 49 points Both 0-7 against mutual opponents. Average margin of defeat: 5.7 and 22.0, respectively Returning production: Connelly's SP+ Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 44, 54, 33 Northwestern- 69, 107, 60 note this weighs returning players (plus transfers) and also weighs quality of recent recruiting Action Network's Transferring Assets & Returning Production Rankings (Overall, Offense, Defense): Nebraska- 33, 28, 46 Northwestern- 60, 70, 61 Other notes: Nebraska's scoring offense held them back last season (73rd points/play, 79th points/gm, 23rd yards/play, 71st turnovers/game) They trade out Casey for Adrian Martinez which I think is an upgrade, assuming health. Also bring in Pitt's OC who should open offense up a bit and I think help with scoring. NW is likely starting Hilinski at QB who was... not good last season. Ranked 150 out of 156 FBS QB's, per PFF player grades. Yes, fuck Casey. But otherwise, tell me why I'm wrong. Edited August 24, 20223 yr by 40acredropout
August 26, 20223 yr week zero picks from Brady. Heard him on radio. He seemed to do some research Brady Quinn: Nevada -9 vs New Mexico State New Mexico State vs Nevada Over 50.5 Hawaii + 7 vs Vanderbilt Hawaii vs Vanderbilt Under 55 North Texas 0 vs UTEP UTEP vs North Texas Over 50.5 Florida Atlantic -7 vs Charlotte Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte Under 57.5 Wyoming + 10 vs Illinois Illinois vs Wyoming Over 44 Utah State -27 vs Connecticut Utah State vs Connecticut Over 60.5 Northwestern + 13 vs Nebraska Nebraska vs Northwestern Under 50.5
August 27, 20223 yr does anyone have a connection to someone with a website that you can fund via venmo? the guy i've used for the past 5ish years is out of the game.
August 27, 20223 yr Here we go. Hit 54% on my picks last season but was (am) a regard and my bet amount allocation put me down overall on the year. This year is different... I've got: Nebraska -13 v Northwestern Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii U44 Wyoming v Illinois U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU UNT PK @ UTEP Placed bets Thursday... line moved in my favor on 4/5 which is validating. But doesn't make a shit... feels like I end up losing those ones way more often than I think I will. Lets go!!
August 29, 20223 yr WVU +7.5- $50 CMU +21.5- $50 Fighting Mack Brown’s- Pick Em- App State- $100.00 Oregon- +17- $50.00 Texas- -34.5 $100 LSU- -3- $100 Bijan- Over 1100.5- -140- $250.00 Also- have a 10 team money line of big favorites Edited August 29, 20223 yr by Wulaw Horn
August 29, 20223 yr 58 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: WVU +7.5- $50 CMU +21.5- $50 Fighting Mack Brown’s- Pick Em- App State- $100.00 Oregon- +17- $50.00 Texas- -34.5 $100 LSU- -3- $100 Bijan- Over 1100.5- -140- $250.00 Also- have a 10 team money line of big Im going to assume that Bijan number is for the year. If so that seems pretty low 🤔 If it’s just for Week 1 gotta take the under 😀
August 29, 20223 yr 30 minutes ago, joeycovers said: Im going to assume that Bijan number is for the year. If so that seems pretty low 🤔 If it’s just for Week 1 gotta take the under 😀 For the year. Already bought up to 1200
August 29, 20223 yr On 8/26/2022 at 7:03 PM, BigOrange1 said: does anyone have a connection to someone with a website that you can fund via venmo? the guy i've used for the past 5ish years is out of the game. I got someone if you want. You pay when you lose no fundage
August 29, 20223 yr Houston- +150 ML @ Tech Pitt v WVU Over- 53- plus - $25.00 to win 28 2 teamer - Missou and Ok State- each - 20.5- 25 to win 78 North Carolina + over 56- $25 to win 62.50 Clemson- 21.5- 25 to win 23.25 OU- Under 9- 25 to win 28 Texas- $10.00- -38.5- +102
August 29, 20223 yr On 8/27/2022 at 9:52 AM, 40acredropout said: I've got: Nebraska -13 v Northwestern Vanderbilt -8 @ Hawaii U44 Wyoming v Illinois U50.5 Nevada @ NMSU UNT PK @ UTEP 3-1-1 is pretty good to start the year.
August 29, 20223 yr On 8/26/2022 at 4:49 AM, closetohumping said: Brady Quinn: Nevada -9 vs New Mexico State New Mexico State vs Nevada Over 50.5 Hawaii + 7 vs Vanderbilt Hawaii vs Vanderbilt Under 55 North Texas 0 vs UTEP UTEP vs North Texas Over 50.5 Florida Atlantic -7 vs Charlotte Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte Under 57.5 Wyoming + 10 vs Illinois Illinois vs Wyoming Over 44 Utah State -27 vs Connecticut Utah State vs Connecticut Over 60.5 Northwestern + 13 vs Nebraska Nebraska vs Northwestern Under 50.5 5-8-1 and he really didnt have a whole lot of close calls. 2 of his wins were close but correct. I dont think a single loss was within 5 points
August 29, 20223 yr 9 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said: 3-1-1 is pretty good to start the year. Second season in a row that I've lost my opening bet because of Nebraska. Lesson fucking learned lol. Starting to dig into Week 1 matchups a little bit. Right now I'm liking Houston -4 at UTSA and BYU - 11.5 at South Florida. Road favorites... I think I'm a sucker because that definitely seems to be one of my tendencies. Speaking of tendencies... I looked back at my picks from last season and I need to start doing more O/U betting. Was 14-6 on those (70%) and then only 33-34 on picking winners against the spread.
August 29, 20223 yr 55 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said: 5-8-1 and he really didnt have a whole lot of close calls. 2 of his wins were close but correct. I dont think a single loss was within 5 points Fade time
August 30, 20223 yr I'm sure I talk myself into adding more but what I have so far for Week 1: U60.5 La Tech at Mizzou O51 WVU at Pitt O52.5 NMSU at Minnesota U51.5 Temple at Duke Houston -4.5 at UTSA BYU -11.5 at USF Utah -3 at Florida Kentucky -16.5 vs Miami (OH) Boise State +3 at Oregon State
August 30, 20223 yr New Mexico State +38.5 at Minnesota. NMSU is ass, but PJ doesn't cover big numbers against tomato cans.
August 30, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, GopherRock said: New Mexico State +38.5 at Minnesota. NMSU is ass, but PJ doesn't cover big numbers against tomato cans. You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points. But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota. Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed. Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. And he can. NMSU is very much ass. 1-10 last year against FBS teams. They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average. They gave up 40.9 points per game. I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over. I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here. Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game.
August 30, 20223 yr 4 hours ago, 40acredropout said: I'm sure I talk myself into adding more but what I have so far for Week 1: U60.5 La Tech at Mizzou O51 WVU at Pitt O52.5 NMSU at Minnesota U51.5 Temple at Duke Houston -4.5 at UTSA BYU -11.5 at USF Utah -3 at Florida Kentucky -16.5 vs Miami (OH) Boise State +3 at Oregon State WE only picked one bet in common- but we did it the same with the over on WVU v Pitt. We actually teased it up to 53 and took the over to go from -111 to +115 or something like that.
August 31, 20223 yr 19 hours ago, 40acredropout said: You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points. But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota. Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed. Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. And he can. NMSU is very much ass. 1-10 last year against FBS teams. They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average. They gave up 40.9 points per game. I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over. I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here. Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game. I've spent a lot of time thinking about this one. I'm probably trying to build a case around my fairly uninformed bet but this is what I've come up with. X-Factor here is Minnesota bringing back Kirk Ciarrocca as OC. He was in same position at MINN from 2017-2019 and was also Fleck's OC at WMU from 2013 to 2016. Look at Fleck's teams PPG with Ciarocca (2013-2019) and since (2020-2021): 2013 WMU- 17.2 2014 WMU- 33.8 2015 WMU- 36.0 2016 WMU- 41.6 2017 MINN- 22.1 2018 MINN- 28.9 2019 MINN- 34.1 2020 MINN- 27.3 2021 MINN- 25.5 He comes back to right the ship. Of note, QB Tanner Morgan is in his 6th year and will be leading the offense. Look at Morgan's year over year decline within the offense and notice what he did in 2019 (Ciarrocca's last season calling plays): They only return one O-lineman which is concerning but I have to think they will be able to hold their own against NMSU. Their #1 WR and best RB are both back so there is skill talent there. Here's to the over on this one and Fleck bitch slapping Jerry in public. Edited August 31, 20223 yr by 40acredropout
August 31, 20223 yr Purdum's ESPN Chalk work is always good. https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/34487451/college-football-betting-nuggets-trends-watch-week-1
August 31, 20223 yr More from Purdum. Best coaching records ATS (min. 3 seasons) Minimum three seasons Overall Liberty's Hugh Freeze 72-41-1 ATS Kansas State's Chris Klieman 22-13-1 ATS Minnesota's P.J. Fleck 64-43-3 ATS Worst Western Michigan's Tim Lester 23-32-2 ATS UTEP's Dana Dimel 47-65-0 ATS Maryland's Mike Locksley 28-37-0 Home games Best Kent State's Sean Lewis 12-5 ATS Liberty's Hugh Freeze 39-19-1 ATS Colorado's Karl Dorrell 26-13-1 ATS Worst Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 9-21 ATS Ball State's Mike Neu 11-21 ATS UTEP's Dana Dimel 20-33 ATS Road games Best Ohio State's Ryan Day 8-3-1 ATS Tulsa's Philip Montgomery 29-11-1 ATS Pittsburgh's Pat Narduzzi 25-11-1ATS Worst USC's Lincoln Riley 7-13-2 ATS Maryland's Mike Locksley 11-19 ATS Texas' Steve Sarkisian 15-24 ATS Western Michigan's Tim Lester 10-16-1 ATS Conference games Best Ohio State's Ryan Day 16-9-1 ATS San Jose State's Brent Brennan 23-13-3 ATS Navy's Ken Niumatalolo 43-24-2 ATS Colorado State's Jay Norvell 24-14-2 ATS Worst Western Michigan's Tim Lester 14-23-1 ATS Maryland's Mike Locksley 18-28 ATS UTEP's Dana Dimel 29-44 ATS Non-conference games Best Northern Illinois' Thomas Hammock 6-2-1 ATS Minnesota's P.J. Fleck 24-9-1 ATS Michigan State's Mel Tucker 5-2 ATS Worst Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 4-13 ATS Georgia Southern's Clay Helton 6-13 ATS San Jose State's Brett Brennan 6-11-1 ATS In August/September games Best Liberty's Hugh Freeze 25-10-1 ATS Northern Illinois' Thomas Hammock 5-2-1 ATS Tulane's Willie Fritz 22-11 ATS West Virginia's Neal Brown 16-8-3 ATS Worst Georgia Southern's Clay Helton 6-15 ATS Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins 7-13 ATS Indiana's Tom Allen 6-11 ATS After a loss Best Colorado State's Jay Norvell 16-8-2 ATS Florida's Billy Napier 8-4 ATS Central Michigan's Jim McElwain 27-14 ATS Worst Indiana's Tom Allen 8-21-1 Ohio State's Ryan Day 1-2-1 ATS Kentucky's Mark Stoops 18-33-2 ATS Over/Unders Highest over percentage UCLA's Chip Kelly (60%) Western Kentucky's Tyson Helton (59%) Ohio State's Ryan Day (58.8%) Highest under percentage Cal's Justin Wilcox (64.8%) Louisiana-Monroe's Terry Bowden (63.3%) Florida's Billy Napier (61.5%)
September 1, 20223 yr 3-1-1 on year so far. Full card this week. U60.5 LaTech @ Mizzou O51 WVU @ Pitt Purdue +3.5 v Penn State O52.5 NMSU @ Minnesota U51.5 Temple @ Duke Houston -4.5 @ UTSA BYU -11.5 @ USF U57.5 Troy @ Ole Miss Utah -3 @ Florida O54 Army @ Coastal Kentucky -16.5 v Miami (OH) Georgia State +12.5 @ South Carolina Boise State +3 @ Oregon State bets places but please still tell me why I’m going to lose. Edited September 1, 20223 yr by 40acredropout Added Purdue +3.5 from bar
September 1, 20223 yr gonna try and be more conservative with my # of bets this season. got purdue ML tonight for my first play of the season.
September 2, 20223 yr ML - Nevada Florida Spread - Texas Kentucky North Carolina O/U Under - Georgia Oregon Edited September 2, 20223 yr by Zeus
September 2, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Zeus said: ML - Nevada Florida Spread - Texas Kentucky North Carolina O/U Under - Georgia Oregon keep in mind a lot of us are seeing diff odds depending on the site and the time of bet. its helpful to list the actual lines you got when you booked the bet.
September 2, 20223 yr 8 hours ago, joeycovers said: Thursday Night CMU +21.5 Penn St - 3.5 WVU +7.5 9.95 for my weekend picks. Just DM me.
September 2, 20223 yr We had that game nailed on OSU over CMU. 51-15 in the third and didn’t cover? That’s a garbage beat. And that was the 1 leg of the parley that didn’t hit.
September 2, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: We had that game nailed on OSU over CMU. 51-15 in the third and didn’t cover? That’s a garbage beat. And that was the 1 leg of the parley that didn’t hit. Definitely a tough beat.
September 2, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, joeycovers said: Definitely a tough beat. Losing the game in and of itself is fine. When that’s the reason you don’t hit your +350 parley though… grrrrr. Up literally $3.00 on the day. Teased the O/u up while taking the over to get a +110 instead of a -110 thus the reason we are up (barely) for the day. our unit bet is 1/20 of our total money in play in the account. How do y’all determine how much your unit bet is? I’ve always heard you want 20 lives in any gambling situation.
September 2, 20223 yr On 8/30/2022 at 2:33 PM, 40acredropout said: You're historically right and 38.5 is definitely a lot of points. But the interesting subtext here is Jerry Kill taking over at NMSU and his contentious relationship with Fleck/Minnesota. Kill has talked shit on Fleck publicly several times over the past few years to which Fleck has downplayed. Without a doubt, Fleck wants to kick the ever living shit out of Jerry. And he can. NMSU is very much ass. 1-10 last year against FBS teams. They rank 116th in returning production from that dogshit team that lost by 18 points per game on average. They gave up 40.9 points per game. I saw the O/U go down to 52.5 and jumped on the over. I cannot imagine Fleck letting off the gas here. Especially since they have 9 days before their next game with FCS Western Illinois, so not like they're looking ahead to a big game. So close yet so far on the -38.5.
September 2, 20223 yr 44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said: We had that game nailed on OSU over CMU. 51-15 in the third and didn’t cover? That’s a garbage beat. And that was the 1 leg of the parley that didn’t hit. Awful fucking beat and I've done this a long ass time.
September 2, 20223 yr I like an in game parley- TCU -13.5 and under 58 v Colorado. + 285 or something like that.
September 3, 20223 yr I got into the bourbon tonight so I placed a small bet on TCU CU under 59.5. Hoping Colorado's offense is still dogshit.
September 3, 20223 yr On 9/1/2022 at 6:50 PM, BigOrange1 said: gonna try and be more conservative with my # of bets this season. got purdue ML tonight for my first play of the season. 6 hours ago, BigOrange1 said: taking illinois +1 tonight. don't see why they aren't favored by at least 3.
September 3, 20223 yr 14 hours ago, joeycovers said: Colorado +14 Everybody that DM me and sent me 9.95 got my real pick. That was just for the poors Sat Picks free of charge one week only. Call me on a recorded line for my stone cold lead pipe lock this week Domers over 59 Arkansas -6.5 BYU -11 Kent St +22 Kent St +23 S Carolina -12.5
September 3, 20223 yr 15 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said: I like an in game parley- TCU -13.5 and under 58 v Colorado. + 285 or something like that. I tailed this and added the Mets ml. Thanks buddy!
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