October 16, 20223 yr That’s a pretty weird line. Road game, feels like they should be 3-4 point favorites.
October 16, 20223 yr Can somebody give me a good reason not to bet like 80% of my checking account on South Carolina +4 at home against... *checks line again*... aggy??
October 16, 20223 yr Popular Post 1 minute ago, TexArcher said: Can somebody give me a good reason not to bet like 80% of my checking account on South Carolina +4 at home against... *checks line again*... aggy?? As long as you don't need that $86 then yes
October 16, 20223 yr Vegas is hard to figure. We had no business being 16.5 favorites against Iowa State. We have no business being favored against Okie State. They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know.
October 16, 20223 yr Author 6 minutes ago, TexArcher said: Can somebody give me a good reason not to bet like 80% of my checking account on South Carolina +4 at home against... *checks line again*... aggy?? Cause Rattler sucks
October 16, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, Lhorn said: That’s a pretty weird line. Road game, feels like they should be 3-4 point favorites. 2 minutes ago, Bigbend1812 said: Oklahoma State's pass defense has been very, very bad. If we play well then this time next week the set of fans who overreact wildly in every direction will once again declare that with Ewers we are the greatest ever. We could play exactly as "well" as we did this week and if Oklahoma State plays like normal relative to what we faced in Iowa State then we will score 40 points and Ewers will throw for 300+.
October 16, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, billfromlaketravis said: Vegas is hard to figure. We had no business being 16.5 favorites against Iowa State. We have no business being favored against Okie State. They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one) SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish.
October 16, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one) SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish. He means it's hard for him to figure. Just now, VirginiaLonghorn said: Vegas odds are not rat poison.
October 16, 20223 yr I felt better about this game before the TCU loss. They always wilt in the big game now it is just a regular game. Like others I expected the standard -3 home advantage.
October 16, 20223 yr Last time I went to Stillwater, UT won. They’re winning again this time around !
October 16, 20223 yr 20 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said: They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. Vegas lines are not predictions and the people who nailed the suckers on the KU-OU line were the people on the other side of those bets.
October 16, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, mdmost said: Maybe we beat them by 1 point. My brain can handle that even if my heart can’t.
October 16, 20223 yr Author 12 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said: Hey what's Henry Waxman doing here
October 16, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, Duane Moore said: My brain can handle that even if my heart can’t. My liver sure as hell won’t like it.
October 16, 20223 yr Honestly thought it'd open oSu -3. They expect a shootout in Stillwater. This, and at a minimum. I bet it moves to 4 or 5 mid week. That place will be rocking.
October 16, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, TexasMan said: Hey what's Henry Waxman doing here I was hoping it was Brad Marchand …
October 16, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, TexArcher said: Vegas lines are not predictions This always gets parroted and I don't understand why. For a sport like college football lines absolutely serve as predictions. If Vegas fucks the line up they lose money.
October 16, 20223 yr 28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said: Sagarin has us as 3.5 point favorites Massey has us as about 1.75 point favorites FPI has us as roughly 5-6 point favorites (not sure their HFA for this one) SP+ will have us as about a 2 point favorite Vegas is actually not that hard to figure out in terms of the lines they publish. So, as long as we don’t miss a FG early in the game or squander a possession deep inside our opponent’s territory, we should be good. Easy peasy.
October 16, 20223 yr Popular Post 1 minute ago, ztejas said: This always gets parroted and I don't understand why. For a sport like college football lines absolutely serve as predictions. If Vegas fucks the line up they lose money. People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one." No, they don't. Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points. Nor do they care. What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line. If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free. If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it. Vegas does not predict games.
October 16, 20223 yr Just now, TexArcher said: People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one." No, they don't. Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points. Nor do they care. What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line. If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free. If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it. Vegas does not predict games. We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth.
October 16, 20223 yr This game does have some similarities to the 2020 game in Stillwater. OSU was undefeated heading into the game, we had been basically shredded by every offense with a pulse and our offense was coming off a meh performance the week before against Baylor. Despite all those favors, the line only opened at like OSU -3.5 and people hammered OSU thinking it was too good to be true. We won outright. Edited October 16, 20223 yr by Hookem2147
October 16, 20223 yr Just now, ztejas said: We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth. Of course it's not going to be exactly even, but it's as even as they can get it. And there's nothing to go in circles all day on. I said Vegas is not in the prediction business. And they're not.
October 16, 20223 yr Just now, TexArcher said: Of course it's not going to be exactly even, but it's as even as they can get it. And there's nothing to go in circles all day on. I said Vegas is not in the prediction business. And they're not. That may be true but Vegas lines still serve as pretty good predictions. Especially in the era of advanced stats/models that every bettor and their mom has access to.
October 16, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, ztejas said: This always gets parroted and I don't understand why. For a sport like college football lines absolutely serve as predictions. If Vegas fucks the line up they lose money. Sportsbooks are in the business of taking bets, not making it. If they do their jobs properly, the lines should reflect the aggregate prediction of the bettors. Betting against it means you think you know something *everybody else* dont. And thats definitely not I.
October 16, 20223 yr 11 minutes ago, ztejas said: We can go in circles all day on this. A lot o bettors are smart. Especially the ones that place a lot of money on games. If Vegas publishes a really bad "prediction" and a bunch of smart money jumps on it then they can get hosed. Also - money is rarely even on both sides of the line. That's a total myth. Dozens of games. Every week. House wins over time. Casinos don’t go broke.
October 16, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, 52-80 said: Betting against it means you think you know something *everybody else* dont. And thats definitely not I. This is a good way of phrasing it. Just now, Bobby Layne said: Dozens of games. Every week. House wins over time. Casinos don’t go broke. Okay?
October 16, 20223 yr 16 minutes ago, TexArcher said: People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one." No, they don't. Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points. Nor do they care. What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line. If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free. If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it. Vegas does not predict games. This is not really true. Books absolutely take positions on games.
October 16, 20223 yr 14 minutes ago, TexArcher said: People see a line like Team A -7 and they say things like, "Wow, Vegas really likes Team A in this one." No, they don't. Vegas does not think Team A is going to win by 7 points. Nor do they care. What they do care about is getting the same amount of money on both sides of the line. If they do, the losers pay the winners and Vegas keeps the juice -- risk free. If they don't, Vegas is exposed to potential loss, which is why lines move once the money starts rolling in. The only thing a line is predictive of is how Vegas thinks bettors will respond to it. Vegas does not predict games. We’re all saying the same thing. The lines are not strictly speaking a prediction, but they are one ipso facto, on the fact that the bets should converge towards a crowd-averaged prediction.
October 16, 20223 yr 57 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said: Vegas is hard to figure. We had no business being 16.5 favorites against Iowa State. We have no business being favored against Okie State. They nailed millions of suckers on the KU-OU line, so what the hell what they’ll do I know. Vegas may be hard for people to figure but they’re right. I have a hard time believing we will be dogs in any remaining games since OU win. ISU line should’ve been 10 to 12. OSU feels right.
October 16, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, 52-80 said: We’re all saying the same thing. The lines are not strictly speaking a prediction, but they are one ipso facto, on the fact that the bets should converge towards a crowd-averaged prediction. Right, and the opening line is their best guess on a starting point to get to that. Another line you hear a lot is, after a 3-point favorite gets pounded by 21, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!" No, Vegas probably came out just fine.
October 16, 20223 yr I’m never confident going to Stillwater but it’s not at night and yesterday we got the win but had plenty of coachable moments, and came close enough to losing that the players should take this coming week of practice seriously.
October 16, 20223 yr 49 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said: I felt better about this game before the TCU loss. They always wilt in the big game now it is just a regular game. Like others I expected the standard -3 home advantage. Texas is never a regular game for the other Big12 teams.
October 16, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, TexArcher said: Another line you hear a lot is, after a 3-point favorite gets pounded by 21, "Boy, Vegas sure got that one wrong!" No, Vegas probably came out just fine. This is a lot more complex than you're making it out to be. Vegas loses money on games all the fucking time. Whether they win or lose money has to do with where the money was. The money is never - or very rarely - 50/50. Vegas makes money on juice and being more right than the bettors. For every game they lose money on they may wind up on the right side of the money twice.
October 16, 20223 yr Re: our game in Stillwater, we're gonna win a defensive slugfest 49-35. Quinn throws for 350.
October 16, 20223 yr 40 minutes ago, markstanco said: This, and at a minimum. I bet it moves to 4 or 5 mid week. That place will be rocking. You’re fooled by historical AP rankings. There is no way the line will shift to OSU -4 or -5. Come the fuck on. Texas is more like to move to -3. Y’all do realize that most computers have us ranked in the Top 5?
October 16, 20223 yr 5 minutes ago, Porterhouse said: You’re fooled by historical AP rankings. There is no way the line will shift to OSU -4 or -5. Come the fuck on. Texas is more like to move to -3. Y’all do realize that most computers have us ranked in the Top 5? Sounds like those computers are missing some chips due to global supply chain issues.
October 16, 20223 yr 4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said: We’ll go down 35-0 and then run a reverse for a touchdown, only to win 42-35 Yiss.
October 16, 20223 yr Oklahoma State is a difficult team to read because they've played such a soft schedule. They're played 1 team over .500 and lost that game. Their pass defense is awful so I expect them to sit in a soft zone and force Texas to methodically move down the field. This is a game where Bijan needs a lot of carries because there will be opportunities for 10 yards a pop.
October 16, 20223 yr For large portions of the TCU game Oklahoma State was in surrender cobra mode defensively. Their defensive staff knows they can't cover anybody. It's going to be interesting if they can be that conservative against Texas because Bijan and Roschon are a different challenge when you play in such a shell of a defense.
October 16, 20223 yr Spencer Sanders is miles better than this Dekkers thing we played yesterday and overall they have better players around him. Our strategy needs to be to keep it out of his hands or we will give up 50. Counting on Ewers to keep up is not a winning strategy. Run run run.
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