February 11, 20232 yr 8 minutes ago, formermav43 said: I don't believe I have said "all." I have said they tend to, it's nearly inevitable, etc. That's not "my truth," that's what the data says. So you have to bank on Valdez being the rare exception. Based on what data exactly? From what I've read it originated with Bill James arguing that groundball heavy pitchers tend to suffer more rotational injuries, which was later rebutted by others weighing in. There's one article from Fangraphs about one study asking this question but it's from 2016. I'm not arguing there isn't data to support this idea, but I'm asking how much we can actually put into that one article as an article of faith as it relates to an anomaly like Framber Valdez. What about guys like Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux? And Hernandez had a helluva career even if he was out of MLB by his age 33 season (with a shitload of IPs on his arm).
February 11, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, formermav43 said: You've already mentioned 3 of them for starters - Keuchel, Correa, Springer (whom you evidently view as a big loss, and I'd argue the jury is still out on given the length of the contract, not to mention the fact that Tucker made him unnecessary - he's not good in CF anymore). That statement was made in the context of your statement that, "teams routinely pay bigger money to aging players in the back end of contracts knowing there's a good chance the player's performance will fall off." None of those deals fall into that category - the oldest player at the end of it will be Altuve, at 34, and his AAV is a bargain. But they wouldn't budge on the years for Correa. Springer will be heading into his age 38 season when he's a free agent. Etc. And every single guy you named they extended was younger than Valdez is now - and that's without taking into account the aging of groundball pitchers that we already have covered. So the question is, is Valdez more like the young guys they extended, or the older guys they didn't want to give longterm deals to? Even at 5/$90 like you propose, is he more likely to be an effective starter at 34, or washed up before he even hits free agency? I don't think "giving him his money" based on what he did last year is smart, and I think the Astros history of NOT doing business that way is a good thing. 5/90 is too much. That would be 2/60 in his FA. Unless you mean 5/90 after his 6M or whatever it is this year. They would be fine. That’s essential 6/95 then. You don’t give him 30 a year in FA. 20 tops.
February 11, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, Gourmand said: Btw it case any of you assholes missed it, my most hated ex-Chron Astros beat reporter appeared on Greg Rajan's podcast this week to hawk his new book about the Astros and discuss the shit we're tired of hearing about but also inside information about the Astros front office he learned from his time covering the Luhnow Astros. I hate to say it, but he came off better than I expected in this podcast (which I only listened to because I trust Rajan) and he revealed some interesting details outside of the sign-stealing scandal that I'd never heard before (re Springer and also AJ Hinch/Luhnow/JV trade). https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/podcast/article/astros-evan-drellich-winning-fixes-everything-17770669.php What are the highlights, for those of us unwilling to create an account?
February 11, 20232 yr 28 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said: What are the highlights, for those of us unwilling to create an account? https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/podcast/article/astros-evan-drellich-winning-fixes-everything-17770669.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaG91c3RvbmNocm9uaWNsZS5jb20vdGV4YXMtc3BvcnRzLW5hdGlvbi9wb2RjYXN0L2FydGljbGUvYXN0cm9zLWV2YW4tZHJlbGxpY2gtd2lubmluZy1maXhlcy1ldmVyeXRoaW5nLTE3NzcwNjY5LnBocA==&time=MTY3NjE0NjM2Mzc5OQ==&rid=ZWIwYjZmZGItNjBmOS00MzQ1LTg5OGYtYjVhYjc3YTdjMjdl&sharecount=MQ== One that really stood out to me was him saying the Astros were trying to sign Springer to an extension before he'd made his debut (basically what they did with Singleton) and they brought him to Houston under the guise of a medical/eye exam and then sat him down to talk contract extension WITHOUT HIS AGENT present and that pissed George off to the point where he told others around him that he'd get his when the time came (money/revenge?).....Also, Luhnow and Hinch weren't the best of friends and clashed on many occasions. Hinch was tossed in the first inning of a game vs TB during Harvey and used that time to get on the phone with his connections in Detroit to get JV trade talks back on the radar. Also dished on Taubman as Luhnow's key operative (along with Mike Fast being the most unheralded important contributor to their success) and said that Taubman was pissed about not being named Special Asst to the GM and that may have fed into the incident during the playoffs. Also there was obvious conflict between Hinch and Cora. Edited February 11, 20232 yr by Gourmand
February 11, 20232 yr It probably doesn't tell us a whole lot, but I graphed the average age of the top 25 ground ball pitchers and top 25 fly ball pitchers by year. In general, FB pitchers tend to be older, but the average age difference per year is 0.6 years. I guess it could be interesting to see how pitchers progress; i.e. do young GB pitchers become old FB pitchers? How does a pitchers WAR / FIP / whatever change as a function of their batted ball type? How has the proliferation of K's changed the scene? Fly ball pitchers seem to be more of your power K guys while GB pitchers are usually thought of as being the soft-throwing "crafty" fuckers. There are exceptions of course. Further investigation of those ideas are left as exercises for the reader.
February 11, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said: It probably doesn't tell us a whole lot, but I graphed the average age of the top 25 ground ball pitchers and top 25 fly ball pitchers by year. In general, FB pitchers tend to be older, but the average age difference per year is 0.6 years. I guess it could be interesting to see how pitchers progress; i.e. do young GB pitchers become old FB pitchers? How does a pitchers WAR / FIP / whatever change as a function of their batted ball type? How has the proliferation of K's changed the scene? Fly ball pitchers seem to be more of your power K guys while GB pitchers are usually thought of as being the soft-throwing "crafty" fuckers. There are exceptions of course. Further investigation of those ideas are left as exercises for the reader. That massive dip before 2010 coincided with the launch angle revolution I think.
February 11, 20232 yr 59 minutes ago, Jshep34 said: Drellich's book is naming the Dodgers and Joc as living in glass houses. Pretty rich about the RedSox complaining.
February 11, 20232 yr The Astros took the lickin and kept on tickin. Nothing is going to change the minds of the haters( or Manfred.) I don't care for the rehashing, as any true evidence has already been being ignored. We know who they are. They know who they are. Fuck em. Moving on and keep on trucking for H-Town. LFG!!! Edited February 11, 20232 yr by slorch
February 12, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, Jshep34 said: Drellich's book is naming the Dodgers and Joc as living in glass houses. I for one am shocked that Joc Pederson would do something so idiotic
February 12, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said: That massive dip before 2010 coincided with the launch angle revolution I think. The dip in 2009 was more a function of who retired at the end of 2008 or otherwise wasn't among the top 25 groundball pitchers in 2009. From the list of 2008 pitchers in the ground ball bucket, Greg Maddux (age 42 - retired), Mike Mussina (age 39 - retired) and Andy Pettite (age 36 - wound up #50 in 2009) were not on the 2009 list.
February 12, 20232 yr 34 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said: The dip in 2009 was more a function of who retired at the end of 2008 or otherwise wasn't among the top 25 groundball pitchers in 2009. From the list of 2008 pitchers in the ground ball bucket, Greg Maddux (age 42 - retired), Mike Mussina (age 39 - retired) and Andy Pettite (age 36 - wound up #50 in 2009) were not on the 2009 list. Thanks. That chart was not saying what I thought it was saying. Looking at it again is still interesting though. I was thinking effectiveness.
February 12, 20232 yr NSIAP here is Pitching Ninja talking about Javier in the WS: If the dude gets a "third pitch" then he'll be almost unhittable. Great extension. Now get Tucker. Then deal with Framber.
February 12, 20232 yr I still think it is like 35% that Tucker signs a deal. I think he wants free agency
February 12, 20232 yr 18 minutes ago, Scraps said: I still think it is like 35% that Tucker signs a deal. I think he wants free agency Agreed, I think it is more likely the Astros get Framber under contract before he hits FA in 2026 than Tucker. Tucker is the one driving that car but you have to wonder how far the front office is willing to go to sign Tucker to a long-term deal with Gilbert, Melton, and Leon waiting in the minors.
February 12, 20232 yr 7 hours ago, Scraps said: I still think it is like 35% that Tucker signs a deal. I think he wants free agency That seems high to me. I was going to put it at like 10%.
February 12, 20232 yr Handicapping odds of each player signing an extension before 2023 opening day: Tucker 10% Valdez 12% Altuve 12% Bregman 8% Garcia 8% B Abreu 15% Pena 5% Brown 5% Y Diaz 8% McCormick 5% Leon 1% Lee 1% Urquidy 1% Stanek 5% Maton 2% Others 2% Edited February 12, 20232 yr by Snake Diggity
February 13, 20232 yr Anyone thinking the Dodgers didn't cheat, need to look no further than Corey fucking Bellinger. From MVP to DFA'd in 3 seasons.
February 13, 20232 yr 9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said: Handicapping odds of each player signing an extension before 2023 opening day: Tucker 10% Valdez 12% Altuve 12% Bregman 8% Garcia 8% B Abreu 15% Pena 5% Brown 5% Y Diaz 8% McCormick 5% Leon 1% Lee 1% Urquidy 1% Stanek 5% Maton 2% Others 2% Maton's extension is a AAA contract, right?
February 13, 20232 yr Author 20 minutes ago, runthebone said: Maton's extension is a AAA contract, right? that won’t be a difficult negotiation, he’ll take anything
February 13, 20232 yr Let’s hope he’s a late bloomer. 30yo with a whopping 13 IP in the bigs. Edited February 13, 20232 yr by TonyTexas
February 13, 20232 yr Just caught end of a story about Framber back in his homeland on mlb network hot stove. Yonder was the interviewer with him. If someone runs across it please post. Thanks
February 13, 20232 yr On 2/11/2023 at 11:33 AM, Gourmand said: I hate to say it, but he came off better than I expected I guess that's in eye of the beholder. He definitely came off as being confident in his opinion. He also came off as a pompous douche with the way he talked about literally everything. I'm pre-disposed not to like him, but he came off like "everything in this book is exactly how things happened on all teams", which we know can't even come close to being true. He repeated the idiotic "Altuve didn't stop it". No one stopped it. Nor really could they have in the way that people want on the outside. "Astros cheated on the road", there has been no evidence of this literally at all. And he didn't provide any in the conversation. He talked about presenting a full picture, but the truth is, he wanted to make money on this, and writing this book and shutting up before hand was literally the only way to do it. His one and only source was Mike Fiers. He even says that he realized it in the 2018 postseason that they were cheating. This was long after everyone states the Astros stopped doing it, including the league and Ken Rosenthal. But whatever, the Astros were/are just better at it all. They were better at "cheating", they were better at not doing it too. I've moved on, and so has most of the rest of the world of baseball.
February 14, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, Scraps said: Just caught end of a story about Framber back in his homeland on mlb network hot stove. Yonder was the interviewer with him. If someone runs across it please post. Thanks
February 14, 20232 yr Author Bracamonte is the team ‘glove’ man. He’s getting things ready. Soon, very soon https://instagram.com/stories/bracamonte85/3037565209017133694?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
February 14, 20232 yr No comments on the huuuuuuggeeee OXY logo now in jersey sleeves? also Fuck Philly.
February 14, 20232 yr Author 2 minutes ago, utxmike05 said: No comments on the huuuuuuggeeee OXY logo now in jersey sleeves? also Fuck Philly. meh, part of the business. Having several friends that work at Oxy, it’s a great company
February 14, 20232 yr 22 minutes ago, The Dog said: I would disagree with this move but you can always be wrong
February 14, 20232 yr Author Pure internet speculation …. Based on Javier’s extension and what Valdez is looking for, my best guess for what a Framber Valdez extension could look like: $4 million signing bonus 2023 – $6.8 million 2024 – $12.8 million 2025 – $18.8 million 2026-2029 – $28 million Total: $154.4 million with an average annual value of $22 million Would Jim Crane sign a pitcher for seven years? Valdez is coming off an excellent 2022 season that saw him finish 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. Looking at Jacob deGrom‘s $30 million or Yu Darvish‘s $25 million for 2023, where does Valdez fit between those two pitchers? The market for starting pitchers is inflated at the moment. If a pitcher like Valdez can be extended with a $22 million AAV, the Astros should make it happen. That would only be $3-4 million more than the qualifying offer. What do you think a potential extension for Valdez would look like? Edited February 14, 20232 yr by tx 3 putt
February 14, 20232 yr I can't believe the Astros agreed to partner with Oxy. When people see They are going to think
February 14, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: Pure internet speculation …. Based on Javier’s extension and what Valdez is looking for, my best guess for what a Framber Valdez extension could look like: $4 million signing bonus 2023 – $6.8 million 2024 – $12.8 million 2025 – $18.8 million 2026-2029 – $28 million Total: $154.4 million with an average annual value of $22 million Would Jim Crane sign a pitcher for seven years? Valdez is coming off an excellent 2022 season that saw him finish 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. Looking at Jacob deGrom‘s $30 million or Yu Darvish‘s $25 million for 2023, where does Valdez fit between those two pitchers? The market for starting pitchers is inflated at the moment. If a pitcher like Valdez can be extended with a $22 million AAV, the Astros should make it happen. That would only be $3-4 million more than the qualifying offer. What do you think a potential extension for Valdez would look like? That looks very close to what I would expect. Unfortunately I do not consider that a very team friendly deal. Pretty much paying market rate for those free agent years which are into his mid 30s.
February 14, 20232 yr 9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: meh, part of the business. Having several friends that work at Oxy, it’s a great company Was a great company.
February 14, 20232 yr 8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said: Do the opposite of the surly thread All Cretans are liars.
February 14, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, BornOrange said: I can't believe the Astros agreed to partner with Oxy. When people see They are going to think The oxy is for the pain of the rest of the league.
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