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Nice night for the fire pit but getting cold. Heading inside.  Looks like rain Saturday. 

Edited by YGIFS

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So parts of California have already gotten over 400 inches of snow. And the weather pattern doesn’t seem ready to stop.

Will it be cold again in Central Texas this winter or is it 60s-70s-80s for the rest of Jan and Feb?

25 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Will it be cold again in Central Texas this winter or is it 60s-70s-80s for the rest of Jan and Feb?

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  • Author
Will it be cold again in Central Texas this winter or is it 60s-70s-80s for the rest of Jan and Feb?

Some models are seeing a pattern shift after the 20th, but nothing crazy or out of the norm.
  • Author

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18 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

Will it be cold again in Central Texas this winter or is it 60s-70s-80s for the rest of Jan and Feb?

Next cold front brings some rains Wednesday. 1/19-30 shaping up for a bunch of cloudy days of high's in the low 60's, lows in the low 40's.  So, typical dreary January.

4 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Next cold front brings some rains Wednesday. 1/19-30 shaping up for a bunch of cloudy days of high's in the low 60's, lows in the low 40's.  So, typical dreary January.

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Gonna be pretty dreary the next ~40 hours, but Sunday should be glorious. Little chilly in the morning, but warming to the mid-60's after lunch. Get ya butts outside!

Looks like serious rain in Austin on Tuesday.  I hope it pans out.  I know it's winter, but all the flora looks extra sad right now.  And i had to explain to yet another neighbor kid what happened to their cat.  Raccoons and coyotes get thirsty.  And blood carries more water than an exterior faucet drip.

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I know it's winter, but all the flora looks extra sad right now. 

They need Brawndo.

With wastewater averaging and high utility costs right now, we're really not that far away from it being cheaper to feed plants Gatorade versus water.  I remember being one of like 9 people that saw "Idiocracy" in the theater and thinking it was too hyperbolic even for Mike Judge.  In hindsight, he wasn't even close to accurate on how dumb we'd get  this fast.  

2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

With wastewater averaging and high utility costs right now, we're really not that far away from it being cheaper to feed plants Gatorade versus water.  I remember being one of like 9 people that saw "Idiocracy" in the theater and thinking it was too hyperbolic even for Mike Judge.  In hindsight, he wasn't even close to accurate on how dumb we'd get  this fast.  

Not a movie as much as a goddamn prediction that may have undershot by several hundred years.  

Bout half an inch on the ground in Amarillo. 3-5” expected.

We need every bit of moisture we can get. It’s 28 degrees, so not real nasty out.  Tonight will probably have pretty slick roads out there.

Bout half an inch on the ground in Amarillo. 3-5” expected.
We need every bit of moisture we can get. It’s 28 degrees, so not real nasty out.  Tonight will probably have pretty slick roads out there.

Sounds ugly

Cross posted from the rain thread, but we got awakened by a damn hail storm at 4:00.   Crazy shit.  

1 hour ago, Updawg said:


Sounds ugly

No wind and not really a hard freeze in past 24 hours?  I’ll take it in a heartbeat.

Tomorrow morning will likely be slicker’n hell,  if we don’t get some sunshine this afternoon.

Edited by slorch

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Cross posted from the rain thread, but we got awakened by a damn hail storm at 4:00.   Crazy shit.  

That woke me up. Didn't know about the hail.  Its raining like a MFer here now. 

31 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

That woke me up. Didn't know about the hail.  It’s raining like a MFer here now. 

Wild as shit.   I thought it was the giant raccoon sized possum that runs through our neighborhood running across my roof.  Went to look out back and nickel to quarter sized hail is pounding the patio non-stop for 10 minutes before the rain even started 

This was yesterday morning, just getting around to posting. How can they be this wrong about low temp forecast? And also, crazy how much colder it gets at my house than even a couple miles away.

BA023E57-4883-408F-A8F9-8A43850F2F67.thumb.jpeg.b02581140f5fb98ff401350dc0c54e2b.jpeg
DF374022-DB9B-4F9F-8D7D-F26ADE8C06AC.thumb.jpeg.39e4cf75cbc7d65e09c8723caea072b5.jpeg

Shitty pic, but 23 degrees at my house

Were you rally driving when you took that pic?

But that wasn’t supposed to be the takeaway! On the app, it was 13 degrees below the projected low, and 22 below the projection at my house

Picked a bad day to help my mom do shit in Decatur. @RPM territory

 

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Followed it home. Now snowing in little elm and my dog is loving it.

 

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15 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

This was yesterday morning, just getting around to posting. How can they be this wrong about low temp forecast? And also, crazy how much colder it gets at my house than even a couple miles away.

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Shitty pic, but 23 degrees at my house

They weren't.

 

Those forecasts are for a large area, and must be averaged. If I had to guess, you are in a lower area which gets significantly colder. Local mets hammer on that point anytime Austin gets close to freezing. See tweet below from that morning:

 

 

 

Also notice how the station they are using for Austin is measuring 37.

 

And just for one last data point, here is the weather station in my back yard for that morning. 33.1

 

 

Screenshot 2023-01-25 at 7.55.06 AM.png

My house last week. That's a trampoline frame.

snow.png.25bece0d253845471de6b3d5b66f2161.png

20 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

From the folks at storm2k

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That ain't good.  Talk about fucking up the roads and power grid....  

Yup, and here is the snow forecast at the same time:

 

IMG_1792.jpeg

Am I reading that right? Prediction of 2 inches of snow for Lubbock area?

1 minute ago, slorch said:

Am I reading that right? Prediction of 2 inches of snow for Lubbock area?

The top (pink) one is accumulated frozen rain, not snow. (shitshow Icepocalypse).

 

The one I posted is snow accumulation, which would have LBK at 20 inches.

Edited by UnivTex34

16 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

The top (pink) one is accumulated frozen rain, not snow. (shitshow Icepocalypse).

 

The one I posted is snow accumulation, which would have LBK at 20 inches.

The legend calls out 10:1 inches, so I read that as 2" not 20, which I believe is how slorch is reading it as well.

7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

The legend calls out 10:1 inches, so I read that as 2" not 20, which I believe is how slorch is reading it as well.

The person that posted presented it as 20 inches and not 2. I've actually never seen it present that way with 10 to 1 (seems really pointless), but I did not stay in a Holiday Inn last night.

Aha, that is not 10 to 1 on what is being presented on the graph. It ids the standard snowfall to liquid ratio. This is per PivotalWeather.com

 

So that is 20 inches and not 2.

Screenshot 2023-01-26 at 11.59.46 AM.png

Just now, UnivTex34 said:

Aha, that is not 10 to 1 on what is being presented on the graph. It ids the standard snowfall to liquid ratio. This is per PivotalWeather.com

 

So that is 20 inches and not 2.

Screenshot 2023-01-26 at 11.59.46 AM.png

Ah thanks, that makes sense.

So... wow, that's a lot of snowfall predicted for Lubbock and many surrounding areas.  

Yeah, just stumbling my way through it until that asshole @phdhorn comes back and does it for me.

6 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

Yeah, just stumbling my way through it until that asshole @phdhorn comes back and does it for me.

Eff that guy.  Tornados in the Houston area, Snowpocalypse headed to Lubbock-- and where the heck is he?

  • Author

That is correct. For every one inch of liquid precipitation it is equal to 10 inches of snow.

Meh…

Othersites are forecasting ice on Tuesday and wintry mix on Thursday.  It ain’t gonna be the 20” by a long shot.

Lol, this is just 1 model a week out, so yes, you could be correct.

 

The model could also confirm.

 

3 days out is where we will be able to tell with more certainty.

 

 

20 fucking inches of snow in Lubbock... and other sites are saying smattering of ice on Tuesday and wintry mix with minimal accumulations on Thursday.

Ain't fucking happening.

The all-time record for Lubbock snowfall in a single day still stands at 11.4 inches back on January 20, 1983. The most snowfall recorded in a 24-hour period in Lubbock occurred from January 20-21, 1983 at 16.3 inches.

 

Edited by slorch

Just bought three pallets of water and 48 rolls of toilet paper at HEB.  I'm ready. 

2 hours ago, slorch said:

20 fucking inches of snow in Lubbock... and other sites are saying smattering of ice on Tuesday and wintry mix with minimal accumulations on Thursday.

Ain't fucking happening.

The all-time record for Lubbock snowfall in a single day still stands at 11.4 inches back on January 20, 1983. The most snowfall recorded in a 24-hour period in Lubbock occurred from January 20-21, 1983 at 16.3 inches.

 

Calm down and read what I said. 
 

its a single model, a week out. 
 

is it likely? Doubtful. Can you completely discount it? Nope.

 

this is also total accumulation not in a single day.

 

This is the same model that got the 2021 freeze dead on. Quite a few folks Said the same thing about that one.

 

 

Edited by UnivTex34

12 minutes ago, UnivTex34 said:

This is the same model that got the 2020 freeze dead on. Quite a few folks Said the same thing about that one.

Counterpoint:  It was 2021 so.....yea go ahead and walk it back 🤣

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Counterpoint:  It was 2021 so.....yea go ahead and walk it back 🤣

20, 21, whatever it takes…..

 

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