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The 2020 Census was not kind to Democrats. It was basically a +5 shift to red states. 

If you take the 2020 map, plug in presumptive nominee Desantis instead of Trump and account for the changes from the last census and assume Democrats aren't going to flip any Trump states, it looks like this:

2020 Map= Biden 306 - Trump 232

Census changes: +5 to Red states, Texas +2, Fla +1, NC +1, Montana +1, CO +1, Oregon +1, California -1, NY -1 PA -1, Illinois -1, Ohio -1, Michigan -1, WVA -1

New map totals would be Biden 301 - Desantis 237

Flip Georgia= Biden 285 - Desantis 253

Flip Georgia + Arizona= Biden 274 - Desantis 264

Flip Georgia + Arizona + Wisconsin = Biden 264 - Desantis 274 

You can play with the map Here

yet another thing Trump fucked us on. I have no confidence the last census was accurate

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