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#1001
17 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

The fuck’s goin on the radar? A hurricane forming over central Texas?

That's exactly my thought when I saw the loop/

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#1003

There is a risk of excessive rainfall this weekend for the Hill Country.  The fact that they already have this as slight and moderate this far out means there is a pretty damn good chance it's going to happen. 

 

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194519.png

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194545.png

#1005
1 hour ago, Hate said:

There is a risk of excessive rainfall this weekend for the Hill Country.  The fact that they already have this as slight and moderate this far out means there is a pretty damn good chance it's going to happen. 

 

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194519.png

Screenshot 2023-05-09 194545.png

Every woman must have washed her hair and every man must have washed his truck at the same time in this area to guarantee this level of rainfall.

#1006
3 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Every woman must have washed her hair and every man must have washed his truck at the same time in this area to guarantee this level of rainfall.

Lol you dumbass. We'll get like .25 while Waco gets a foot and a half. 

#1008
3 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Is it even allowed to flood in central Texas in May if it's not Memorial Day weekend?

Give or take a couple of weeks. Lake Travis is thirsty. 

#1010

Uh, just SW of downtown.  Apocalyptic downpour starting at 0750hrs.  Wow.  Be safe on the roads everybody, gotta get the kids to school.  

#1012
7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, Austin got basically nothing the last 48 hours despite threats of rainpocalypse?  Shocking.

I got 0.5" yesterday afternoon/evening. And I think the 'pocalypse is this weekend.

#1016
12 hours ago, Deej said:

 

I can't watch Annie Lennox in that video and not think I'm hearing Rebecca from Ted Lasso.  

Edited by Trey3216

#1017

The Central Texas event isn’t expected to begin until this weekend. The WPC still has the Hill Country in the bullseye. This will put a big dent in the lakes if this verifies.

b70da44393ee3de34c30d3164d5a7e0c.gif

#1018

We've had 2 inches this morning in the Hewitt area.  Got blasted around 7:30 and kept up until 8:45.  Wasn't about to leave for work during that shit, so didn't get here until 9.  

#1019
4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We've had 2 inches this morning in the Hewitt area.  Got blasted around 7:30 and kept up until 8:45.  Wasn't about to leave for work during that shit, so didn't get here until 9.  

9:20 here, you know had to be sure.

#1020

My parents in Axtell had some over the road flooding.  1.5 inches in my area.  It was great. No threat of wind or hail. Just a pleasant rain.  Close to 4 inches so far in May.

#1023
15 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

I’m legit curious what a tornado that spanned from Killeen to Pearsall would register as. Was I being too shortsighted at F-250?

No way Texas could afFORD that kind of disaster.

#1028
55 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

You guys do know about the Balcones fault and the weather, right?

Quote

6. Summary and conclusions

In this study, three different heavy precipitation and flash-flood events were examined to evaluate the effect that the Balcones Escarpment has on extreme precipitation in central Texas. Each event had different synoptic or mesoscale characteristics but all resulted in flooding damage and fatalities along the terrain feature. Numerical simulations were run using ARW at a convection-allowing grid spacing to ensure that a reasonable representation of the event was produced along the Balcones Escarpment. For each case, an experiment was conducted in which the elevation gradient associated with the Balcones Escarpment was removed.

To first order, the removal of the Balcones Escarpment did not change the precipitation characteristics of the events presented in this study. The occurrence and magnitude of the events were not significantly altered, with the overall spatial pattern and area-averaged precipitation showing little change when the terrain feature was removed. However, a shift in the precipitation to the north and west was found in simulations of all three cases. This shift in precipitation associated with removing the Balcones Escarpment, when compared to an ARW ensemble based on the parent Reforecast-2 ICs and LBCs, was much smaller than shifts associated with typical ensemble variability. Although hydrologic factors associated with the Balcones Escarpment make central Texas prone to flooding, it does not appear to cause the extreme precipitation events, of the scale analyzed in this study, that lead to flooding. Based on the results of this study, we conclude that when the synoptic to mesoscale ingredients for extreme convective precipitation are in place over the Balcones Escarpment, the terrain does not directly affect the occurrence or magnitude of precipitation in the region. However, it does appear to affect the spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall in a small but consistent way—namely, by shifting the axis of heaviest precipitation slightly to the northwest. While the Balcones Escarpment did not seem to directly affect the occurrence and magnitudes of the extreme precipitation events studied here, the increased hydrological propensity for dangerous flash flooding associated with the terrain feature should not be ignored. Ongoing work will attempt to examine the effect of the terrain rise on smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as isolated thunderstorms. Since there is a spectrum of convective processes that can produce locally heavy precipitation, it is important to fully understand the meteorological influences the Balcones Escarpment has in this flood-prone region.

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0156.1

#1030
13 hours ago, Wally Pryor said:

Travis is very thirsty. 

PSA, good site for those who aren't aware. Still crazy to see that 30-35 foot rise in May 2015 as a result of the Memorial Day flooding.

https://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/index.php?year=2015

Wow, that's all fancy and stuff.

We are just simple people that just need to know if the lake is full yet.

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

Or if you need to know the depth for some reason

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#depth

 

#1033
1 hour ago, Hate said:

WPC still confident this is going to happen over the weekend.

431cefb9aba16ef27f935ed181bc0369.gif

That looks like a rain where the rivers and lakes need it

#1034

Yes. Hits all over the highland lakes, and a healthy dose for the lower Rio Grande. Too bad it looks like the major stuff will be just downstream from Amistad, but it'll hopefully still get a couple inches.

#1037
1 hour ago, Post Oak said:

That looks like a rain where the rivers and lakes need it

Yeah, I dont really care if Austin metro gets much as long as it pisses all over the lakes and river basins. I grabbed the latest drought map from this morning and overlaid it with the rain totals from above. 

image.thumb.png.8a4989f6a988eb1f968e7e1bc8735381.png

Thats a pretty good rain event if the forecast holds true.

Big if. 

 

Edited by Blotto

#1038
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Yeah, I dont really care if Austin metro gets much as long as it pisses all over the lakes and river basins. I grabbed the latest drought map from this morning and overlaid it with the rain totals from above. 

image.thumb.png.8a4989f6a988eb1f968e7e1bc8735381.png7

Thats a pretty good rain event if the forecast holds true.

Big if. 

 

I love the idea of just gobs of rain over the hill country... and I'll take some in Austin for sure but man, fill up those springs, rivers, creeks, lakes... lesssgoooo

#1039

What's the opposite of the Eeyore "it's gonna rain" meme?  Because, whatever it is, that's me.  

 

Ever Feel Like Eeyore (With a Rain Cloud Over Your Head)? Good News for  Grumps | Glamour

But as always, here's hoping for a lot of the good stuff, right where it's needed!

 

#1043

Last soccer game of the season for the 4yo. Am I a bad dad for hoping they just cancel and don't reschedule? 

Edited by NorthLoop

#1044
2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Last soccer game of the season for the 4yo. Am I a bad dad for hoping they just cancel and don't reschedule? 

Strong post to avatar correlation. 

#1045
29 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Last soccer game of the season for the 4yo. Am I a bad dad for hoping they just cancel and don't reschedule? 

You're a normal dad

#1046

It's 4yo soccer.  10 years from now nobody will remember anything about the games, other than some cute pictures and video.  So really, one game is all you need at that age.

#1047

WPC has expanded the coverage of heavy rain. When we are 24 hours away and they are still this confident, it’s likely going to happen. 
 

 

EB673E0A-F48B-4EC6-9B67-5E9C5270669D.gif

#1049
8 minutes ago, TXLNGHRN10 said:

So south Texas gets all the rain and we might get .25 ?

 

Yep, you're getting where this is going.  Del Rio underwater, Austin maybe gets damp.  Lakes go up .0001 feet.

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