September 2Sep 2 No evidence of ‘Rainey Street Ripper,’ Texas State study finds The “Rainy Street Ripper” — the rumored serial killer allegedly pushing people into Lady Bird Lake — is nothing but an urban myth, according to a new study by Texas State University criminologists and the Austin Police Department. The report, released Tuesday by Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025 and found they mirror historical patterns and the average risk of drowning in a growing Texas city. Researchers said the data revealed no time-and-place clusters or other indications of a serial killer, concluding there is “neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer” — reiterating what police have said for years. "The number of drownings in Austin is a function of population, Lady Bird Lake visitation, and the proliferation of nearby bars and nightclubs," the report said. "While the shores of the Colorado River are not being stalked by a serial killer, the hazards of drowning in Texas remain a concern." The shore of Lady Bird Lake is less than 100 feet from the end of Rainey Street, which hosts a thriving bar scene. At least 21 bodies have been recovered from the lake since 2018, when three deaths in downtown waterways within three months sparked the first wave of serial-killer speculation. Police denied the rumors then, just as they do now. The theory resurfaced with greater reach in 2023, when social media users tied it to Lady Bird Lake and the Rainey Street district, fueling viral TikTok videos and true crime chatter as more bodies were discovered. A Facebook group named “Lady Bird Lake Serial Killer -True Crime” was started that year, now boasting more than 92,500 followers. Of the 189 drownings researchers examined, 58 fell within the estimated victim profile range of the rumored serial killer. According to the study, the rate of drownings within that range was higher for multiple years before 2023. The years 2015, 2018 and 2020 all had higher drowning rates, when adjusted for population, than 2023. And the Rainey Street District is far from the city’s drowning epicenter, the report found. Between 2004 and 2025, just eight bodies fitting the target profile were recovered from Lady Bird Lake between Congress Avenue and Interstate 35, roughly one every 32 months. The most recent body was found in late March. The report notes that "murder is uncommon," elaborating that only 0.2% of all murders are homicidal drownings. Across the world, other rumored serial killers have also been declared myths, the authors explained, including the Smiley Face murderer, the Manchester Pusher and the New England serial killer. Sensationalism across both traditional and social media is the true culprit, the study suggests. It concludes that such narratives thrive on drama and fear rather than facts, a dynamic that's spilled into the national media cycle. The authors pointed to coverage by Fox News, the Daily Mail and social media influencers. Last year, TV personality Nancy Gracy dedicated a of her show “Crime Stories” to these fatalities. "Look, you don't have to go to law school to figure out there's something very, very wrong at Lady Bird Lake," Grace said at the start of the episode. Austin police have remained firm in their stance that there is no killer. They have repeatedly said that the only common factor between some of the deaths is the combination of alcohol and proximity to the lake, which the study confirms. Only one of the 21 deaths has been ruled a homicide: Police said Josue Moreno, 45, was shot while driving his truck, which then crashed into the water. Joel Santiago Gonzalez-Paron, 18, later pleaded guilty to Moreno's murder. The authors argue that lasting progress will come not from chasing lurid narratives, but from problem-oriented policing and evidence-based prevention. They point to Austin’s own efforts — nearly $1 million in safety upgrades on the Rainey Street Trailhead — as an example of how targeted measures can reduce drownings. In 2023, the city began installing safety measures after emotional pleas from the families of two who died in the lake, Jason John and Martin Gutierrez. The improvements were finished last summer, including new lighting, fencing, sidewalk extensions and a camera. Since then, the number of drownings has decreased, according to the study. D. Kim Rossmo and Zena Rossouw of Texas State University’s School of Criminal Justice and Criminology, along with Edward R. Anderson of the Austin Police Department, authored the paper. Well, if Nancy Grace says that there’s a murder spree/cover-up, I’m now 100% certain that there’s nothing nefarious actually happening.
September 2Sep 2 22 minutes ago, scottsins said: Well, if Nancy Grace says that there’s a murder spree/cover-up, I’m now 100% certain that there’s nothing nefarious actually happening. Nicole thanks you for your support.
September 2Sep 2 21 minutes ago, Nicole44 said: Keep posting any tips y’all have. It’s good to stay in the know if YKWIM. Don't accept a drink from you under any circumstances?
September 3Sep 3 6 hours ago, Deej said: This won't stop until an APD officer gets killed by the Town Lake Ripper. Town Lake Terrorist if an APD officer is assaulted.
September 3Sep 3 11 hours ago, HenryJames said: Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation, headed by Nicole Fortefor…
September 3Sep 3 Look at the rug in this guy’s office. He’s probably Sardo Numspa and will pray to his satanic overlord that he’s helping the “ripper” get away with shit for the greater evil by pretending as though none of these crimes are connected. And if you caught the Sardo reference you’re safe. One time get out of the lake…I mean out of jail free card for life courtesy of me. Just like my post so I can make sure you’re on my safe list 😂
September 3Sep 3 12 hours ago, Nicole44 said: Look at the rug in this guy’s office. He’s probably Sardo Numspa and will pray to his satanic overlord that he’s helping the “ripper” get away with shit for the greater evil by pretending as though none of these crimes are connected. And if you caught the Sardo reference you’re safe. One time get out of the lake…I mean out of jail free card for life courtesy of me. Just like my post so I can make sure you’re on my safe list 😂 Nice antique rolltop desk. Mine is of modern manufacture - made out of solid walnut. Bought it new in 1967.
September 3Sep 3 18 minutes ago, Armybrat said: Nice antique rolltop desk. Mine is of modern manufacture - made out of solid walnut. Bought it new in 1967.
September 3Sep 3 9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said: Now these furniture pieces are antiques from 1910….
September 3Sep 3 14 hours ago, Nicole44 said: Look at the rug in this guy’s office. He’s probably Sardo Numspa and will pray to his satanic overlord that he’s helping the “ripper” get away with shit for the greater evil by pretending as though none of these crimes are connected. And if you caught the Sardo reference you’re safe. One time get out of the lake…I mean out of jail free card for life courtesy of me. Just like my post so I can make sure you’re on my safe list 😂 great - now @Nicole44 has the identity the pursuer/next victim
September 19Sep 19 Sorry to bump this thread but when did Nicole move to Houston? Edited September 19Sep 19 by HiggyBaby
October 8Oct 8 On 9/18/2025 at 8:20 PM, HiggyBaby said: Sorry to bump this thread but when did Nicole move to Houston? 7th in 30 days found this AM. 16th overall. Damn Nicole.
October 8Oct 8 28 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said: 7th in 30 days found this AM. 16th overall. Damn Nicole. This whole thing is insane. And I didn’t move to Houston. I rarely go to that shit hole, lol. Checks calendar. Sees my last visit doesn’t line up with any drownings. If there is actually a serial killer in Houston one might say this individual is escalating? If there is a killer, sloppiness and mistakes often accompany an escalation like that. So if LE thinks there may be a killer there is some hope of the killer being caught. If one exists, which the experts have said isn’t true. Lawd. Edited October 8Oct 8 by Nicole44
October 8Oct 8 6 minutes ago, Deej said: Only seven times, right? Walked right into that one (not the bayou)
October 14Oct 14 @Nicole44 The headline reminded me of you. Glamorous suspected serial killer ‘takes pleasure in killing." https://nypost.com/2025/10/14/world-news/glamorous-suspected-serial-killer-linked-to-4-deaths/?dicbo=v2-rIt24uK
October 14Oct 14 8 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said: @Nicole44 The headline reminded me of you. Glamorous suspected serial killer ‘takes pleasure in killing." https://nypost.com/2025/10/14/world-news/glamorous-suspected-serial-killer-linked-to-4-deaths/?dicbo=v2-rIt24uK Nicole:
October 14Oct 14 8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said: Nicole: What’s glamorous about getting caught? Amateur. Being a phantom is the epitome of elegance and class.
October 14Oct 14 On 9/3/2025 at 7:38 AM, Mittens said: “… the m.o., and the victimology, of the rainey street ripper, if he or she exists…” thanks, dr. rossmo, we are way ahead of you.
October 15Oct 15 34 minutes ago, futureman said: “… the m.o., and the victimology, of the rainey street ripper, if he or she exists…” thanks, dr. rossmo, we are way ahead of you. So Dr. Rossmo reads Surly? 🤔 maybe we need a big surly happy hour on Rainey? Edited October 15Oct 15 by Nicole44
October 15Oct 15 2 hours ago, Nicole44 said: So Dr. Rossmo reads Surly? 🤔 maybe we need a big surly happy hour on Rainey?
October 26Oct 26 Was Nicole in Sarkville? Or was she livening up another boring weekend without the Horns here in town? Besides the link posted below,...news stated that another body was found this evening in Shoal Creek.
October 26Oct 26 10 hours ago, BillyGoatHill said: Was Nicole in Sarkville? Or was she livening up another boring weekend without the Horns here in town? Besides the link posted below,...news stated that another body was found this evening in Shoal Creek. Probably a homless person who fell in while shitting in Shoal Creek.
October 26Oct 26 4 hours ago, Deej said: Probably a homless person who fell in while shitting in Shoal Creek. No. It was definitely @Nicole44 expanding her web 😆
October 26Oct 26 I was watching our game. In all fairness, I could watch that fourth quarter on a loop. Except the play where Arch gets concussed.
October 27Oct 27 I was watching our game. In all fairness, I could watch that fourth quarter on a loop. Except the play where Arch gets concussed. Ha! This proves you were dumping bodies during the 4th quarter. Arch was concussed in overtime.
October 27Oct 27 On 9/2/2025 at 5:41 PM, Goredho said: you under any circumstances? @Nicole44, I could think of a few circumstances I could be under you.....
October 27Oct 27 Just now, BabaYaga said: @Nicole44, I could think of a few circumstances I could be under you.....
October 27Oct 27 33 minutes ago, BabaYaga said: @Nicole44, I could think of a few circumstances I could be under you..... Well now it’s justifiable homicide.
October 27Oct 27 59 minutes ago, MissingInAction said: And we wonder why there's only 5 women on this entire site.
October 27Oct 27 1 hour ago, MissingInAction said: And we wonder why there's only 5 women on this entire site. And Nicole thought it was a good idea to post nudes here.
October 27Oct 27 Smiley face killer network: Austin, Houston, Chicago deaths - possible connection to serial killers 29mins ago
October 27Oct 27 6 hours ago, BabaYaga said: @Nicole44, I could think of a few circumstances I could be under you..... \ ETA: MIA beat me to it. Edited October 27Oct 27 by DDD Dad
October 28Oct 28 lol why are you guys piling on? it’s only natural to shoot your shot. maybe not in the thread but we’ve all propositioned nicole through DM. right?
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