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#1453
11 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This a long video, but a sobering and informative analysis of the long-standing situation in Iran.

I've seen a few of these analysis videos, and just looking at past protests, I can understand why it's easy to say it, but this is very different - it is an existential crisis to the regime in a way that no other protests were. The root causes (inflation, economic woes, etc.) are affecting every Iranian (this is not merely a headwear thing that affects only a segment of the population). People are burning the main buildings tied to the regime down. People are controlling towns. People are executing regime security officials and filming it and distributing it.

And because it's millions of people protesting, they all understand that if the regime stays in power, they will have a target on their back and will be just waiting to be executed if the regime regains control.

We are in the third week and they seem to be growing as well. In the past, the regime would have regained some semblance of control in more areas, but that's not happening.

Could the regime survive? Maybe, but I'm not going to be surprised if they fall.

#1454
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I've seen a few of these analysis videos, and just looking at past protests, I can understand why it's easy to say it, but this is very different - it is an existential crisis to the regime in a way that no other protests were. The root causes (inflation, economic woes, etc.) are affecting every Iranian (this is not merely a headwear thing that affects only a segment of the population). People are burning the main buildings tied to the regime down. People are controlling towns. People are executing regime security officials and filming it and distributing it.

And because it's millions of people protesting, they all understand that if the regime stays in power, they will have a target on their back and will be just waiting to be executed if the regime regains control.

We are in the third week and they seem to be growing as well. In the past, the regime would have regained some semblance of control in more areas, but that's not happening.

Could the regime survive? Maybe, but I'm not going to be surprised if they fall.

I'm guessing you didn't watch this one.

Edited by Hank Kingsley

#1455
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm guessing you didn't watch this one.

I made it about 5 minutes in, he repeatedly said it's over and has fallen completely apart, but sure as hell doesn't seem that way. And now that the regime announced they are going to execute all protestors, me thinks it will keep going.

#1456

You should keep watching. He understands the situation inside Iran pretty well.

There is so much propaganda on social media right now. The monarchists and Iranian diaspora are desperately pushing a narrative that seems detached from reality.

Edited by Hank Kingsley

#1457

Shayan is a good follow for Iran situation. He's a BBC journalist that corrects a lot of misinformation (and disinformation).

Edited by Hank Kingsley

#1458

This is the sad harsh truth.

It's been almost 50 years, and the only plan they could come up with is to "bring back the Shah's son and then we can figure things out from there." It's a joke.

#1459
9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This is the sad harsh truth.

It's been almost 50 years, and the only plan they could come up with is to "bring back the Shah's son and then we can figure things out from there." It's a joke.

Counterpoint--I don't know that there's a lot of common thread tying revolutionaries together, but one is they generally don't have the elites that fled the country returning to lead the revolution. Usually, it's someone that was adjacent (maybe exposed to is better) foreign ideas, or was a regime official, but built up support inside the country under the restrictions of the current regime.

I'm not aware of any of those inside in Iran, but the support for someone is there. Iran needs it's own Vaclav Havel.

#1460
1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

Counterpoint--I don't know that there's a lot of common thread tying revolutionaries together, but one is they generally don't have the elites that fled the country returning to lead the revolution. Usually, it's someone that was adjacent (maybe exposed to is better) foreign ideas, or was a regime official, but built up support inside the country under the restrictions of the current regime.

I'm not aware of any of those inside in Iran, but the support for someone is there. Iran needs it's own Vaclav Havel.

Yeah, Pahlavi hasn't even touched Iranian soil in 47 years.

They need defectors inside Iran, but have no strategy and have nothing to show for it. And the reality is the VAST majority of Iranian diaspora have no desire to go back, even if the regime falls.

I've been listening to the cries of regime change for decades from my own family. Not once has a clear solution been presented. My eyes are finally open.

#1461

I haven't read much on the situation but I think things will change because of Israel and the US. This is what Netanyahu wants and Trump will facilitate it.

#1462
3 minutes ago, tomahawk dunk said:

I haven't read much on the situation but I think things will change because of Israel and the US. This is what Netanyahu wants and Trump will facilitate it.

On its face, the idea of Netanyahu and Trump doing something that will positively affect Iran is hilarious.

But yes, that's basically what Iranians in the West are pinning their hopes on right now.

#1463
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

On its face, the idea of Netanyahu and Trump doing something that will positively affect Iran is hilarious.

But yes, that's basically what Iranians in the West are pinning their hopes on right now.

I don't think it will be positive but I do think they will force regime change.

#1465
16 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

You should keep watching. He understands the situation inside Iran pretty well.

There is so much propaganda on social media right now. The monarchists and Iranian diaspora are desperately pushing a narrative that seems detached from reality.

Wait. Are you trying to tell me that Iconoclast Texan is completely detached from reality? I dunno, buddy, that seems like a real stretch. Like a loose billowy asshole kind of stretch.

15 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Yeah, Pahlavi hasn't even touched Iranian soil in 47 years.

They need defectors inside Iran, but have no strategy and have nothing to show for it. And the reality is the VAST majority of Iranian diaspora have no desire to go back, even if the regime falls.

I've been listening to the cries of regime change for decades from my own family. Not once has a clear solution been presented. My eyes are finally open.

Wait a second. Iconoclast Texan also isn't likely to go back if the regime falls? Probably because he has zero actual convictions, he's just a loud theocratic white nationalist who happens to be brown on the internet?

I've got to tell you, this day has suddenly become real deflating.

#1466

they are evacuating a base in qatar. pretty sure thats a go.

on any other day i would be praying its no nuke friday but hey, this wednesday and Feds are at war with everyone already.

#1467
12 minutes ago, staboner said:

they are evacuating a base in qatar. pretty sure thats a go.

on any other day i would be praying its no nuke friday but hey, this wednesday and Feds are at war with everyone already.

Every day is whiskey and war Wednesday if you’re lil’ Petey

#1468
59 minutes ago, staboner said:

they are evacuating a base in qatar. pretty sure thats a go.

on any other day i would be praying its no nuke friday but hey, this wednesday and Feds are at war with everyone already.

I don't think it's just Qatar.

If we are going for regime change like it sounds like, the Iranian leadership is liable to let fly with everything. Obviously not nukes, although it would be interesting if they had any and decided to take down the Saudis or whoever.

#1471
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh. On good authority.

EAiCBCGW4AA3G23.jpg

Obligatory: Thank you, Simone.

Also, Kristy Swanson eats up all 31 Flavors of Trump's bullshit.

Edited by dcbc

#1474
2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

They are absolutely executing people and making it known.

Good to see he's getting played by Iran now, and not just Russia.

#1480
1 hour ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Are there any live news channels covering this?

It's being reported that nobody in the WH is opposing air strikes and Rubio is arguing Trump has to or he'll lose credibility (excuse me for laughing).

And then there's this, within the last hour.

#1481
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They are absolutely executing people and making it known.

Good to see he's getting played by Iran now, and not just Russia.

This just means the bribe cleared escrow.

#1482
On 1/13/2026 at 12:08 PM, tx 3 putt said:

a totalitarian regime only understands violence, blood on the ground

nope-no.gif

On 1/13/2026 at 6:13 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

This is an extremely complex situation, with no consensus on the right actions or paths or visions of Iran's future.

For the outsiders looking in, wish for the best but don't get your hopes up.

good thing we've got a crack team on the case over here to help figure it out!

17684484806745687271945693411887.gif

#1483
8 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Like a loose billowy asshole kind of stretch.

*Loose billowy asshole" will never not be funny.

Edited by Bevo Num1

#1485
6 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

We've seen this before. Are we at the "well, they tried....but it's over" point of this?

How shitty. How fucking sad for an entire country to be run into the fucking ground for.....fucking nothing good. Not a single good thing has come from nearly 50 years of mullah rule.

And the best the "opposition" can come up with is "hey....how about the son of a guy who was kinda shitty and not really liked by many people, in fact his shitty rule led us to revolution and the shitshow we've been in?"

At some point, you gotta help yourselves, people. And it seems rather obvious that what it's going to take is an actual armed rebellion with military action and combat. I hope I'm wrong, and that these are just bullshit statements by the regime, and the uprising still has legs and a chance. But....I feel like....

classic-back-to-the-future.png

#1486

Some people are holding onto the idea that Trump is playing possum. The reality is you cannot remove the Islamic regime with a one and done attack like Maduro. You have to be at war for weeks, months, possibly years. Obviously Trump is a total wild card, so who know how this plays out.

I wish the Iranian people would give up on the Pahlavi bullshit. Move on, the guy is a clown and not a leader in any way.

#1488

Well, Iconoclast hasn't been on here in a few days talking about jerking off dudes for drugs, slavish devotion to theocratic monarchies, and how this time Iran was really rebelling. So I guess it's over, right?

15 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Some people are holding onto the idea that Trump is playing possum. The reality is you cannot remove the Islamic regime with a one and done attack like Maduro. You have to be at war for weeks, months, possibly years. Obviously Trump is a total wild card, so who know how this plays out.

I wish the Iranian people would give up on the Pahlavi bullshit. Move on, the guy is a clown and not a leader in any way.

You mean the full throated, and I mean FULL THROATED support of Pahlavi by Iconoclast isn't a good indicator of a winning decision?

#1489

All of this is complete folly, There are 93 million people in Iran. And the reality is most of the diaspora would be fine with leveling the entire country and starting over. I think most of them really don't care for anyone in Iran outside of their own family members who stayed. They miss the land, but not the people. Remember, the loudest voices in the diaspora are basically boomers. Everything is self-interest. That is my opinion based on all I've seen, and there hasn't been much evidence to disprove it.

The people that were against the extremist Islamic regime in 1979 left the country or died. The people who stayed were pro-Islamic regime or too scared to leave. There is not a strong thread that ties these groups together almost 50 years later.

Remove the sanctions, promote democracy with soft power, and keep relations to hold nuclear program in check. Let Iranians figure it out on there own and hold their hand if desired. The fact that we've depended on US and ISRAEL to magically solve things is so fucking embarrassing.

Edited by Hank Kingsley

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