June 22Jun 22 11 minutes ago, Hate said: Does this appear to be a once in a lifetime opportunity where the world is aligned and there is a way out for everyone but the Mullahs and the Ayatollah. All of Iran's proxies have been neutered or risk the chance of complete destruction if they respond. Russia can't do shit and even China is kind of limited as they won't go to war for Iran. I could be completely wrong and I am sure I am being way over simplistic, but I don't really see a way out for Iran's leadership at the moment. Please someone tell me where I am wrong. As someone with no special insight, I tend to agree that their days seem numbered. It really depends, I think, on whether anyone with influence remains in leadership in the IGRC. If not, then they might hang with the mullahs. Either way, they're really more of an occupying power than an offensive military. That's why they work through proxies throughout the region. In other words, my impression is that their job is oppression. So, then what do the people do? Urban, secular, pro-Western moderates would either want democracy or just some sane stability, opening to a compromise with any potential strongman (see inka's post above). Then, you've got the crazy religious people, who might be even worse than the mullahs. Do they capture the hearts of the rural, religious rubes? Of course, there's also many ethnic minority groups: Baluchis, Azeris, Turks, Kurds, etc. who might want to break away. No fucking idea what's going to happen beyond more rockets being fired into Israel. Edited June 22Jun 22 by bolverk
June 22Jun 22 44 minutes ago, Hate said: Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now. I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird. I don't think even Putin has said anything yet. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now. Putin might like higher oil prices. China definitely won't and who knows what they are doing, but I'm sure they are trying to cool things down through back-channels.
June 22Jun 22 3 hours ago, Frank Drebin said: Fuck that. They have been attacking us through proxies for 40 years. Trump is doing exactly what should be done. A war with Iran is just the excuse he needs to clamp down on any domestic dissent. Any anti war protests will be crushed by the military.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 33 minutes ago, Keyah said: This is an interesting divergence to how you view other conflicts. Suddenly the US is feckless. In Ukraine, all it would take Is more US proxy support for Ukraine to easily beat Russia, a country with nukes. In Iran, we use our superior forces to directly strike Iran, an inferior power that has been massively wounded, and you’re like wow I guess we’ll see what happens. My 12-year-old understands this better than you: In Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor. In Iran, Israel and now the US are the aggressors. So that's one difference. But here's the bigger difference: Iran can shut down 20% of the world's daily oil consumption. They produce a shitload of drones that would be going up against tankers that you can see for many miles coming, that are slow and can't maneuver worth shit and have no air defense (or sea defenses for that matter, Iran has sea drones as well).
June 22Jun 22 13 minutes ago, Ghost of NMAS said: A war with Iran is just the excuse he needs to clamp down on any domestic dissent. Any anti war protests will be crushed by the military. It's like nobody watched the clone wars dammit! 😜 I honestly wonder how true this is. If foreign policy decisions are being solely made by Trump and Stephen Miller, it makes me think we're just all dead.
June 22Jun 22 6 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said: It's like nobody watched the clone wars dammit! 😜 I honestly wonder how true this is. If foreign policy decisions are being solely made by Trump and Stephen Miller, it makes me think we're just all dead. Dude, we are Rome. I saw that when I came back for a trip in 2005. it is just a new Nero. I doubt SecDef was awake. I mean it is a Saturday.
June 22Jun 22 Former secdef espers book is worth a read to get a true sense of how fucked we are Edited June 22Jun 22 by bluto
June 22Jun 22 9 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said: It's like nobody watched the clone wars dammit! 😜 I honestly wonder how true this is. If foreign policy decisions are being solely made by Trump and Stephen Miller, it makes me think we're just all dead. Or imagine that the president had no idea what was going on due to his dementia. You knew this was coming if you followed the Pentagon Pizza Tracker LOL.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 46 minutes ago, Hate said: Does this appear to be a once in a lifetime opportunity where the world is aligned and there is a way out for everyone but the Mullahs and the Ayatollah. All of Iran's proxies have been neutered or risk the chance of complete destruction if they respond. Russia can't do shit and even China is kind of limited as they won't go to war for Iran. I could be completely wrong and I am sure I am being way over simplistic, but I don't really see a way out for Iran's leadership at the moment. Please someone tell me where I am wrong. I have no idea how this turns out but you have to see this as the line of reasoning. I despise Trump and our endless wars, but I also don’t think Iran with nukes is in anyone’s interest. Everyone agreed they shouldn’t have them, but no one did anything about it. The German PM made a comment to that effect. Shit happened, Israel obliterated Irans proxies and its air defense, and a golden opportunity arose to knock out their nuclear program with a good possibility of limited to no consequences. I’d be tempted too.
June 22Jun 22 Can you chucklefucks leave your anit/pro Trump shit out of this thread. Um, we have a thread for opinions. Keep to the news and analysis.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post I’m good taking away nuclear weapons from the biggest state terror sponsor in the world (with no loss of American life).
June 22Jun 22 "It is now our turn to act without delay. As a first step, we must launch a missile strike on the US naval fleet in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French ships," Hossein Shariatmadari, was quoted as saying in Kayhan newspaper - a conservative and hard-line Iranian daily. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/khameneis-circle-issues-stark-warning-after-us-strikes-iran-donald-trump-target-us-naval-fleet-101750560301195.html
June 22Jun 22 12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said: "It is now our turn to act without delay. As a first step, we must launch a missile strike on the US naval fleet in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French ships," Hossein Shariatmadari, was quoted as saying in Kayhan newspaper - a conservative and hard-line Iranian daily. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/khameneis-circle-issues-stark-warning-after-us-strikes-iran-donald-trump-target-us-naval-fleet-101750560301195.html
June 22Jun 22 25 minutes ago, Keef said: I have no idea how this turns out but you have to see this as the line of reasoning. I despise Trump and our endless wars, but I also don’t think Iran with nukes is in anyone’s interest. Everyone agreed they shouldn’t have them, but no one did anything about it. The German PM made a comment to that effect. Shit happened, Israel obliterated Irans proxies and its air defense, and a golden opportunity arose to knock out their nuclear program with a good possibility of limited to no consequences. I’d be tempted too. This 100%. I hate Trump but most presidents put in this situation if Israel starts shit and has a great plan that takes out everything else would follow thru with the choice to finish their nuclear program. Now the debate is what got us to this point and if it would happen with another president in this timeline. lol.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 14 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said: Fuck off. I got friends at those places and on those ships. You, sir, are a penis wrinkle. You do no even merit dick status.
June 22Jun 22 6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said: If the regime leaves Tehran it does not mean they are not the "regime" and that is my concern. They are cool with end of days. They are fighting a holy war. What do you think our leadership is doing? They've pretty overtly been wanting to do a crusade - our secdef has a big fucking crusade cross tattoo. Nevermind that our president has now twice ordered military strikes against Iran without Congressional approval. We the people do not have any say in how things go anymore. Bomb generals, bomb scientists, bomb facilities - all without approval because it's a """special military operation"""
June 22Jun 22 7 hours ago, Hate said: Iran seems to be pretty goddamn isolated right now. I couldn't find any reaction from China which seems weird. I don't think even Putin has said anything yet. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, but it seems like they would have at least condemned the bombing by now. China wants to keep the oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz, they are too dependent on it right now. As for Russia, they didn’t lift a finger to preserve Assad’s regime when it was crumbling last year, they just gave him a place to live. Putin said the below in the last day or two. Countries in the region will take note of how reliable these “sponsor” nations were during crunch time for their client. 5 hours ago, Brian Fantana said: It's like nobody watched the clone wars dammit! 😜 I honestly wonder how true this is. If foreign policy decisions are being solely made by Trump and Stephen Miller, it makes me think we're just all dead. I’ve heard the five voices he listened to on this were Wiles, Vance, Rubio, Ratcliffe, and Witkoff. Gabbard’s appointment was a political reward for the campaign, it’s clear he doesn’t listen to her and it’s debatable that the DNI isn’t necessary in any administration since the individual agency heads it “supervises” have full control over their fiefdoms. Hegseth is basically a recruiting tool/frontman for DOD. It is what it is, and that’s not optimal. Elbridge Colby is the real policy planner at the Pentagon (even though he was probably against this as well).
June 22Jun 22 The Trump messaging to Iran of “we’re done, but also if you hit our people we’re coming back twice as hard” is the playbook they used after eliminating Soleimani in Trump’s first term. Escalate to de-escalate. Iran raised the Red Flag of Revenge, made public statements of fire and fury, then told us through back channels they would make a symbolic response to save face, and when they did, it was the end of it. We’ll see how it plays out this time.
June 22Jun 22 17 minutes ago, Duane Moore said: The Trump messaging to Iran of “we’re done, but also if you hit our people we’re coming back twice as hard” is the playbook they used after eliminating Soleimani in Trump’s first term. Escalate to de-escalate. Iran raised the Red Flag of Revenge, made public statements of fire and fury, then told us through back channels they would make a symbolic response to save face, and when they did, it was the end of it. We’ll see how it plays out this time. I mean, it sure does not seem like the end of it. The houthi attacks ramped up after their general was taken off the board. I'd bet were going to see a significant increase in terrorist threats, and particularly targeting US soft infra like power grids and public infrastructure. Good thing the US head of counter terrorism is 22 and worked at HEB this time last year, he's got those bad guys bagged. Edit: had to include his no-kidding-actually-real administration photo Edited June 22Jun 22 by Captainant
June 22Jun 22 I think this one is a little different. The gloves came off on this. We really backed them in a corner this time. I would be scared shitless of sleeper cells. Cheap and hard to pin the blame on
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post Fuck off. I got friends at those places and on those ships. You, sir, are a penis wrinkle. You do no even merit dick status. Ever notice how it’s always people with no connection to the military in any way that are the most eager for us to get in a fight? Fascinating how that works, ain’t it?
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 42 minutes ago, Captainant said: 'd bet were going to see a significant increase in terrorist threats, and particularly targeting US soft infra like power grids Joke's on them. In Texas, the power grid targets itself.
June 22Jun 22 40 minutes ago, Captainant said: I'd bet were going to see a significant increase in terrorist threats, and particularly targeting US soft infra like power grids and public infrastructure. I LOL’d at the picture of that guy. Not inspiring to be sure. The threats are real, but have been with this regime since they took over in 1979. I could spam up the thread with a list of them all but if anyone doubts it, just ask your favorite LLM for a list of all Iranian-linked attacks on US interests, at home or abroad since that time. Iran has faced very little payback for any of them across 8 administrations so we’ll see if a credible threat of force makes a difference.
June 22Jun 22 9 hours ago, Hook1997 said: Well there you go…. A well known chant of Israel isn’t death to multiple countries that they try to teach their children. Also getting off the topic of the actual topic of the current reasons and more to root issues at this point. You realize Israel has an extremist party in place that teaches their kids that the same? As a Christian, go visit Israel. See how the locals will treat you there right now.
June 22Jun 22 Notably, Intel is being withheld internally from those who are statutorily supposed to be seeing and advising based on it. If you're not in the Party, then your elected office means nothing Withhding Intel from the gang of eight is just further dissolving the checks and balances, as we are flying full speed towards a shooting war without the consent of the governed. Wonderful.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 10 minutes ago, Duane Moore said: I LOL’d at the picture of that guy. Not inspiring to be sure.   The threats are real, but have been with this regime since they took over in 1979. I could spam up the thread with a list of them all but if anyone doubts it, just ask your favorite LLM for a list of all Iranian-linked attacks on US interests, at home or abroad since that time. Iran has faced very little payback for any of them across 8 administrations so we’ll see if a credible threat of force makes a difference. 1,500+ Americans dead at the hands of Iranian surrogates since 1980.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post It's disturbing to me that I see so many statements here that sound like "He's a lousy archduke whose family didn't go to the funeral. Nothing's going to come of this." in 1914, or "All we have to do is kick the door in and all of Russia's rotten house will fall in." in 1942. We got to determine when, where, and how for the first strike. Iran will now determine how they respond to being attacked. If there is anything that history teaches it is that the scope and intensity of the response to an attack like this is entirely unpredictable. Hold on to your nuts. It's gonna get bumpy.
June 22Jun 22 Sobering piece. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/america-verge-catastrophe-middle-east
June 22Jun 22 Nearly the whole stockpile of MOP's has been dropped. Sure would be a kick in the pants if it turned out that they just moved their stockpile prior to the attack since the president had been saber rattling so hard about their nuclear materials
June 22Jun 22 8 minutes ago, Captainant said: Nearly the whole stockpile of MOP's has been dropped. Sure would be a kick in the pants if it turned out that they just moved their stockpile prior to the attack since the president had been saber rattling so hard about their nuclear materials I’m sure the order for more was processed the instant these dumplings left the depot.
June 22Jun 22 Hoping this turns out to be correct. Israeli intel on Iran has been pretty solid so far: https://x.com/amitsegal/status/1936775408277471601?s=46
June 22Jun 22 Author Sobering piece. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/america-verge-catastrophe-middle-eastYep. It’s not about the effectiveness of the initial/primary military action. It’s about all of the actions, reactions, consequences, and dominoes falling into dominoes that come next.Fortunately, we are led by a cadre that has proven not to be short-term thinkers and are brilliant at 12-D chess….furk.
June 22Jun 22 Fill up those tanks! Again, have to believe Iran’s patron China isn’t going to be happy about this.
June 22Jun 22 9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said: All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to. Bro, for the last 25 years, I’ve stayed up every night worried about Iran getting a nuke.
June 22Jun 22 4 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said: Bro, for the last 25 years, I’ve stayed up every night worried about Iran getting a nuke. Fox news is a hell of a drug.
June 22Jun 22 1 hour ago, Duane Moore said: I LOL’d at the picture of that guy. Not inspiring to be sure. The threats are real, but have been with this regime since they took over in 1979. I could spam up the thread with a list of them all but if anyone doubts it, just ask your favorite LLM for a list of all Iranian-linked attacks on US interests, at home or abroad since that time. Iran has faced very little payback for any of them across 8 administrations so we’ll see if a credible threat of force makes a difference. this is like aggy talking about their record since 1984.
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post 10 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said: Bro, for the last 25 years, I’ve stayed up every night worried about Iran getting a nuke.
June 22Jun 22 2 hours ago, Captainant said: What do you think our leadership is doing? They've pretty overtly been wanting to do a crusade - our secdef has a big fucking crusade cross tattoo. Nevermind that our president has now twice ordered military strikes against Iran without Congressional approval. We the people do not have any say in how things go anymore. Bomb generals, bomb scientists, bomb facilities - all without approval because it's a """special military operation""" This right motherfucking here. Great post.
June 22Jun 22 21 minutes ago, Duane Moore said: Fill up those tanks! Again, have to believe Iran’s patron China isn’t going to be happy about this. This is a crazy move by Iran if true, not that crazy from Iran is unexpected. Punish the Chinese for attacks from Israel and the US. With out more info my best guess is China thinks this will get them to get in the fight against the US? Lotsa room for blowback in that line of thinking if true. Who it pisses off: ME OG US Israel China
June 22Jun 22 Popular Post The fewer countries that have access to nuclear weapons the better. The more countries that have access to nuclear weapons, the more inherently dangerous the world is, on an existential level. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I am in favor of the risk/reward calculus here. Potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear program - and setting a precedent for other countries wishing to develop a nuclear weapon that aren't complete surrogates for China's security concerns - is a good thing, IMO. Of course there are risks. But there was never going to be a better time to do this. Hezbollah and Hamas have been defanged. Iran's air defenses have already been wiped out by Israel. Israel has excellent moment to moment intelligence inside Iran, as evidenced by their assassination of one of the leaders of Hamas while in Iran a couple of years ago, and the assassination strikes it continues to carry out on nuclear scientists and military leaders. I am sorry for anyone and everyone in harm's way, including our service people over there. But potentially eliminating Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb within my lifetime is a good thing.
June 22Jun 22 10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said: All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to. It's really been an incredibly sobering reminder about just how easily we were sold on WMD Iraq.
June 22Jun 22 Author The fewer countries that have access to nuclear weapons the better. The more countries that have access to nuclear weapons, the more inherently dangerous the world is, on an existential level. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I am in favor of the risk/reward calculus here. Potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear program - and setting a precedent for other countries wishing to develop a nuclear weapon that aren't complete surrogates for China's security concerns - is a good thing, IMO. Of course there are risks. But there was never going to be a better time to do this. Hezbollah and Hamas have been defanged. Iran's air defenses have already been wiped out by Israel. Israel has excellent moment to moment intelligence inside Iran, as evidenced by their assassination of one of the leaders of Hamas while in Iran a couple of years ago, and the assassination strikes it continues to carry out on nuclear scientists and military leaders. I am sorry for anyone and everyone in harm's way, including our service people over there. But potentially eliminating Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb within my lifetime is a good thing. But you also realize that between this, Ukraine, and North Korea, we’ve also made the ironclad case for the proposition of “if you don’t have a nuke, you nest get one pronto,” right? There’s a comprehensive approach that would reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation. We’ve fucked up that approach for 20+ years.
June 22Jun 22 8 hours ago, Frank Drebin said: I’m good taking away nuclear weapons from the biggest state terror sponsor in the world (with no loss of American life). Well, yeah, but I'm not understanding why you and others seem to think this thing is over now.
June 22Jun 22 17 minutes ago, SL Xpress said: The fewer countries that have access to nuclear weapons the better. The more countries that have access to nuclear weapons, the more inherently dangerous the world is, on an existential level. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I am in favor of the risk/reward calculus here. Potentially eliminating Iran's nuclear program - and setting a precedent for other countries wishing to develop a nuclear weapon that aren't complete surrogates for China's security concerns - is a good thing, IMO. Of course there are risks. But there was never going to be a better time to do this. Hezbollah and Hamas have been defanged. Iran's air defenses have already been wiped out by Israel. Israel has excellent moment to moment intelligence inside Iran, as evidenced by their assassination of one of the leaders of Hamas while in Iran a couple of years ago, and the assassination strikes it continues to carry out on nuclear scientists and military leaders. I am sorry for anyone and everyone in harm's way, including our service people over there. But potentially eliminating Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb within my lifetime is a good thing. Iran's "nuclear bomb" is a red herring, Trump is just doing what he's told by Netanyahu. The goal here is Israel's safety, not ours.
June 22Jun 22 1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said: It's disturbing to me that I see so many statements here that sound like "He's a lousy archduke whose family didn't go to the funeral. Nothing's going to come of this." in 1914, or "All we have to do is kick the door in and all of Russia's rotten house will fall in." in 1942. We got to determine when, where, and how for the first strike. Iran will now determine how they respond to being attacked. If there is anything that history teaches it is that the scope and intensity of the response to an attack like this is entirely unpredictable. Hold on to your nuts. It's gonna get bumpy. Anyone painting this in simple terms isn't paying any attention or is driving a narrative. This engagement or war if you prefer involves the globes 3 largest nuclear powers, shit tons of proxies, the entire ME OG, Israel, and a region whose control has been fought over "globally" for well, since Alexander the Great, and regionally prior. People often get their news from their biased Twitter content or whatever platform and tend to regurgitate whatever their teams talking heads are saying. Sadly, the ability to have logical, complex discussion just aren't very realistic because it requires looking at all sides of the issues, of which there are numerous in this instance. It also requires one to be open minded enough to be critical of one's own "team" and at times supportive of the other. I'll use some examples on me. I strongly believe and was in favor of ending Iranian nuclear capabilities. I am strongly in favor of the current Iranian regime being toppled. I am glad the attacks were made, I am fearful of the reprocussions. I don't like that the talk from our politicians is that it wasn't to overthrow the current regime, but I understand to say otherwise could potentially escalate this already extremely dangerous situation to a far worse level. I don't want US troops in Iran but recognize that attacks by Iran or it's it's proxies could lead to that reality. I would like Iranian people to he free of tyrannical rule and to find its own autonomy but realize that's mostly hopeful. I don't have any confidence in the current US leadership to handle the situation smoothy or with tact, but acknowledge it's the hand we are dealt. I wish this group of largely university educated middle class and intelligent posters could have a complex conversation and discuss news and developments rationally without dropping in constant political shit talking commonly found on social media. I also acknowledge that's not going to happen and it bums me out, because if this group can't there is zero hope for the US public at large to do so.
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