November 19, 20232 yr 31 minutes ago, blutow said: Yeah, that's rational/logical. But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse). They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward. It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed. They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington. If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help. FSU loss is most likely. I still think that narrative could be Texas beating the shit out of a common opponent (tech) that Oregon barely beat. That would give us 3 points in our favor... 1. Better win 2. Harder sos 3. Better win over common opponent While only 1 point in Oregon's favor 1. Better loss
November 19, 20232 yr We need to be huge Florida fans this weekend. Jordan Travis is out and the game is in Gainesville.
November 19, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said: We need to be huge Florida fans this weekend. Jordan Travis is out and the game is in Gainesville. Unfortunately, Florida just lost their starting QB yesterday as well.
November 19, 20232 yr with travis being out, i doubt florida state finishes in the top 4 even if they win out.
November 19, 20232 yr Just now, ATXbronco said: I think Florida's QB is out also? Just learned. Still will be rooting for UF. It's a rivalry game at their stadium. You never know.
November 19, 20232 yr 23 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said: I still think that narrative could be Texas beating the shit out of a common opponent (tech) that Oregon barely beat. That would give us 3 points in our favor... 1. Better win 2. Harder sos 3. Better win over common opponent While only 1 point in Oregon's favor 1. Better loss That all happened in the past and should have played into the initial rankings that put Oregon in front of Texas/Alabama. From my perception, they really screwed up the initial ranking and they won't change it going forward unless they can come up with the narrative the explain the logic. You can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. I don't see them saying "sorry, we didn't put much thought into the initial rankings, but we are looking at it logically now and moving Oregon behind Texas and Bama". Assuming it plays out with Oregon beating undefeated top ~5 Washington in the CCG, the case for Oregon over Texas gets stronger, not weaker.
November 19, 20232 yr Author 48 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said: with travis being out, i doubt florida state finishes in the top 4 even if they win out. Undefeated P5 champion makes the Playoff, don't be silly
November 19, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, texifornia said: Undefeated P5 champion makes the Playoff, don't be silly we'll see (maybe). on gameday yesterday herbstreit said 12-1 texas should be in over 13-0 fsu and that was before they lost their qb.
November 19, 20232 yr Unfortunately, Florida just lost their starting QB yesterday as well. I doubt the drop off from QB1 to 2 is as large at UF as it is at FSU. We’ll see…
November 19, 20232 yr 42 minutes ago, blutow said: That all happened in the past and should have played into the initial rankings that put Oregon in front of Texas/Alabama. From my perception, they really screwed up the initial ranking and they won't change it going forward unless they can come up with the narrative the explain the logic. You can't put that toothpaste back in the tube. I don't see them saying "sorry, we didn't put much thought into the initial rankings, but we are looking at it logically now and moving Oregon behind Texas and Bama". Assuming it plays out with Oregon beating undefeated top ~5 Washington in the CCG, the case for Oregon over Texas gets stronger, not weaker. They can justify because we haven't played tech yet so there is no common opponent yet.
November 19, 20232 yr We move up one just based on the OSU/Michigan game. The loser can't play in the CCG. The committee has stated they look at wins and losses, conference championship, and head to head competition. Of course there is more, SOS and "other" but we win SOS too. Spoiler The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering: Conference championships won, Strength of schedule, Head‐to‐head competition, Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and, Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance. So we start off at six. If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama. There are a bunch of other scenarios, but we just aren't seeing many upsets this season. FSU could lose to Louisville, or Oregon to Oregon State, but it's unlikely. Two more nice looking wins and I like our chances. Probably, we will be huge Alabama fans in a couple weeks.
November 19, 20232 yr I’ve seen quite a few sports announcers argue that in the scenario where three of the four playoff locks are: 1. Michigan/OSU 2. Washington/Oregon 3. Alabama That Texas could get the nod over an undefeated FSU because of strength of schedule and beating Bama. I originally didn’t buy that, but I guess it’s possible. Especially since they lost their QB.
November 19, 20232 yr first time for five 11-0 teams? That's hard to believe, and it's going to be 4 max after this weekend, maybe 3. but 5 undefeateds this late?
November 19, 20232 yr 12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said: I’ve seen quite a few sports announcers argue that in the scenario where three of the four playoff locks are: 1. Michigan/OSU 2. Washington/Oregon 3. Alabama That Texas could get the nod over an undefeated FSU because of strength of schedule and beating Bama. I originally didn’t buy that, but I guess it’s possible. Especially since they lost their QB. A one loss Georgia doesn't make it?
November 19, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, David Dennison said: A one loss Georgia doesn't make it? Not against an undefeated ACC champ or 12-1 Big 12 champ.
November 19, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said: For fucks sake, I was trying to be nice to you because you clearly are not understanding the situation. It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. All we need is Florida State to lose. Washington winning or losing is completely irrelevant. This. How is this so difficult? Absent some crazy shit the PAC, big 10 and SEC have a spot. Our only reasonably probable path is FSU losing. I suppose you could hope for 1) Iowa to beat the tOSU/Michigan winner or 2) Oregon st to beat Oregon and then Washington loses in the PAC championship to Arizona, or 3) Auburn beats bama who then blows out Georgia, but I'm not gonna hold my breath on any of those scenarios. We win 2, FSU loses one. That's the way.
November 19, 20232 yr 36 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said: If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama. If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. Edited November 19, 20232 yr by Jewish Wang
November 19, 20232 yr 8 minutes ago, Js1 said: Not against an undefeated ACC champ or 12-1 Big 12 champ. Watch
November 19, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, David Dennison said: A one loss Georgia doesn't make it? I don’t agree with others at all that believe a one loss Georgia gets in over a Texas. No way. Texas beat Bama who beat Georgia. Plus one of the most important committee factors is winning your conference. No way.
November 19, 20232 yr An Alabama on a 10 game winning streak that just won the SEC and beat the 2 time defending champ gets in before us. I'm not saying it's right or fair, but the circumcized one is correct.
November 19, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said: For fucks sake, I was trying to be nice to you because you clearly are not understanding the situation. It does not fucking matter what Oregon or Washington do because they play each other and 1 of them will be eliminated from discussion and the other will most likely be ahead of us. All we need is Florida State to lose. Washington winning or losing is completely irrelevant. It’s not completely irrelevant but after Oregon state lost to Washington it became a much less likely scenario. I still think if Bama is in and Oregon is in and Texas is out there is a legit argument we got hosed. And I don’t think the committees decision will be easy. It’s a toss up really. Bud yes FSU loses and Texas wins out then Texas is in next to the winner of the pac 12 probably as the four seed playing big 10 or Georgia. PAC 12 will be 2/3 with Bama or big 10 as 2.
November 19, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said: If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. FSU loses I don’t think it matters. I also don’t think UGA can over come recent loss, to a team Texas beat on the road, and conference champion Texas vs not conference champion Georgia. To put them in ahead of Texas flies in the face of head to head, conference championships and recency.
November 19, 20232 yr 16 minutes ago, Jewish Wang said: If Bama wins CCG, Bama is in. This is an absolute no brainer. And, UGA is probably ahead of us AND an undefeated FSU. Bama winning is the worst possible scenario. This is as obvious a scenario as there is, and you’re taking the exact opposite stance. I used to think this too. But if SOS and Head to Head are as important as stated above, explain this "no brainer." We have both over Bama, no?
November 19, 20232 yr 25 minutes ago, Not a cat said: An Alabama on a 10 game winning streak that just won the SEC and beat the 2 time defending champ gets in before us. I'm not saying it's right or fair, but the circumcized one is correct. That could happen. But only if the Committee ignores their own published criteria for selection. I appreciate how hard that would be to believe, but we beat Bama straight up, in their house. Edited November 19, 20232 yr by Thetexashammer
November 19, 20232 yr 24 minutes ago, Not a cat said: This. How is this so difficult? Absent some crazy shit the PAC, big 10 and SEC have a spot. Our only reasonably probable path is FSU losing. I suppose you could hope for 1) Iowa to beat the tOSU/Michigan winner or 2) Oregon st to beat Oregon and then Washington loses in the PAC championship to Arizona, or 3) Auburn beats bama who then blows out Georgia, but I'm not gonna hold my breath on any of those scenarios. We win 2, FSU loses one. That's the way. I don't think your scenario for the PAC qualifies as "crazy shit." I'm not saying it will happen, but Oregon St. beating Oregon isn't crazy, and honestly, Arizona beating Washington isn't either. FSU is the more likely path, but there is plenty of meaningful football to be played that will decide this, including by us.
November 19, 20232 yr 23 minutes ago, Not a cat said: An Alabama on a 10 game winning streak that just won the SEC and beat the 2 time defending champ gets in before us. I'm not saying it's right or fair, but the circumcized one is correct. Maybe, but Georgia won’t go.
November 19, 20232 yr people forget that the committee ignores SOS if you are an SEC team. you survived the "absolute meatgrinder"TM.....
November 19, 20232 yr 3 minutes ago, idigTexas said: I don't think your scenario for the PAC qualifies as "crazy shit." I'm not saying it will happen, but Oregon St. beating Oregon isn't crazy, and honestly, Arizona beating Washington isn't either. FSU is the more likely path, but there is plenty of meaningful football to be played that will decide this, including by us. Ok, not crazy but certainly highly unlikely. OSU is a 14 point dog to Oregon and Arizona certainly would be to Washington. Once you start relying on multiple upsets, odds get pretty long. FSU is the opposite, we only need one loss and have 2 chances. Not to mention no quarterback.
November 19, 20232 yr I don’t believe a 1 loss conference champion Texas loses out to a 1 loss non champ Georgia when there’s a common opponent to further differentiate. i do think that if fsu can win these next 2, that they’ll get the nod. Didn’t know that UF is without its qb but beating them at home and then…Clemson?… with your backup qb would be enough to say they should still be there based on their season, even without Travis.
November 19, 20232 yr 5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said: Maybe, but Georgia won’t go. Sure, but if FSU doesn't lose we're still out. Bama just jumps into Georgia's spot as SEC champ and we're still #5.
November 19, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said: I don’t believe a 1 loss conference champion Texas loses out to a 1 loss non champ Georgia when there’s a common opponent to further differentiate. i do think that if fsu can win these next 2, that they’ll get the nod. Didn’t know that UF is without its qb but beating them at home and then…Clemson Louisville… with your backup qb would be enough to say they should still be there based on their season, even without Travis. fify
November 19, 20232 yr 12 minutes ago, Not a cat said: Sure, but if FSU doesn't lose we're still out. Bama just jumps into Georgia's spot as SEC champ and we're still #5. As I said earlier, there are several sportswriters saying one loss Texas should go over undefeated FSU because of SOS, injured QB, and win over Bama. Highly unlikely but still a tiny possibility.
November 19, 20232 yr 14 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said: I feel like everyone is overthinking this. If FSU loses Texas is in, period. It’s obvious so no one is looking at that scenario.
November 19, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, blutow said: Yeah, that's rational/logical. But unfortunately they dug a deep hole by putting Oregon in front of Texas/Bama in the initial rankings (based on eye test at the time and OU loss making our loss look worse). They would need a "narrative" to explain a change going forward. It doesn't have to be a great explanation, but they need something to explain why it's changed. They could explain Bama jumping over Oregon based on a CCG win against Georgia (more impressive than Oregon beating an undefeated Washington), but I don't think a Texas CCG win over a lower ranked OSU or OU could be argued as a bigger win than Oregon over undefeated Washington. If we win out, I still like our chances, but we'll need help. FSU loss is most likely. Not if we win the CCG.
November 19, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Js1 said: Not against an undefeated ACC champ or 12-1 Big 12 champ. Unless GA is annihilated by Bama they’re getting one of the four spots
November 19, 20232 yr A one loss Georgia doesn't make it?You're not allowed to lose late. Thems the rules*.*unless you're bama
November 19, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, texastroubadour said: Unless GA is annihilated by Bama they’re getting one of the four spots Highly unlikely. This has happened a few times in the CFP era. There’s too many teams who would have better resumes than a 1-loss Georgia with no conf championship
November 19, 20232 yr Absent complete chaos with upsets over the next two weeks, any team that isn’t a conference champ isn’t going to make the playoff this year. Full stop. Anybody worried about winning out but being below a team that isn’t a P5 champ is wasting their time and doesn’t understand how the committee looks at their rankings.
November 19, 20232 yr 3 minutes ago, texastroubadour said: Unless GA is annihilated by Bama they’re getting one of the four spots No they wont, you are wrong. Stop saying this because it is not true. They would 1000% lose the spot to Texas. They are not conference champ. They lost to the team Texas beat. They lost way too late in the season. They arent getting in. Period.
November 19, 20232 yr 23 minutes ago, Not a cat said: Sure, but if FSU doesn't lose we're still out. Bama just jumps into Georgia's spot as SEC champ and we're still #5. Again, if SOS and Head to Head are paramount, somebody explain how a CCG winning one-loss Bama jumps a CCG winning one-loss Texas who beat them at home. I think you've all got PTSD.
November 19, 20232 yr that QB injury and a Louisville win changes the landscape. Otherwise it's bad news.
November 19, 20232 yr 7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said: No they wont, you are wrong. Stop saying this because it is not true. They would 1000% lose the spot to Texas. They are not conference champ. They lost to the team Texas beat. They lost way too late in the season. They arent getting in. Period. We will see
November 19, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said: first time for five 11-0 teams? That's hard to believe, and it's going to be 4 max after this weekend, maybe 3. but 5 undefeateds this late? There haven’t even been five 10-0 Power 5 teams since at least the start of the BCS. I think I heard 1973 mentioned on a podcast for the last time it’s happened, much less 11-0. Edited November 19, 20232 yr by LonghornSean
November 19, 20232 yr Oregon has no wins over currently ranked wins Texas needs to be pumping that stat - we have 2 wins over a top 10 team and a top 20 team
November 19, 20232 yr If UGA were to get in as a 12-1 non-SEC champ over Texas, it would be purely based on what happened in the two previous seasons. That would be absolute bullshit and I don’t believe the committee would do it. Not a scenario I’m worried about. Edited November 19, 20232 yr by LonghornSean
November 19, 20232 yr If Georgia gets in despite losing in the CCG it’s because the committee still thinks they are one of the top 4 teams based on “eye test.” That’s really it.
November 19, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said: We move up one just based on the OSU/Michigan game. The loser can't play in the CCG. The committee has stated they look at wins and losses, conference championship, and head to head competition. Of course there is more, SOS and "other" but we win SOS too. Reveal hidden contents The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering: Conference championships won, Strength of schedule, Head‐to‐head competition, Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and, Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance. So we start off at six. If Alabama wins the CCG, SEC gets left out, because we have head to head, that's pretty straight up. So we are four in that scenario. We have top 3(?) SOS and the best win all year against Bama. There are a bunch of other scenarios, but we just aren't seeing many upsets this season. FSU could lose to Louisville, or Oregon to Oregon State, but it's unlikely. Two more nice looking wins and I like our chances. Probably, we will be huge Alabama fans in a couple weeks. I don't think there's a chance in hell the SEC champion gets left out of the CFP. Alabama or Georgia will be in, possibly both if Alabama beats UGA in a close game.
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