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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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#52301
It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won't put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn't want to play poker against Ann Selzer.

her track record means this poll is clearly showing a) late Movement to Harris, b) Trump Midwest slippage is real. 

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#52303
6 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm legitimately dumbfounded right now

After crunching numbers in Georgia this morning, I'm not.  The Republicans are about to feel the wrath.  Fuck em

#52304

That Iowa poll is a shocker.  Given the bs polling all over it is hard to put much on one poll but Seltzer is the gold standard in Iowa.  If this pans out it’s a landslide coming.

#52305
8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

image.png.1cd36d93ce1578ff902b30b15e78c242.png

He has the pro-rape vote I guess. But what kind of asshole shows up to a football game with political bullshit? So glad Texas has a bye week if that is what we are seeing this weekend.

Edited by Valmy77

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#52309
1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

That Iowa poll is a shocker.  Given the bs polling all over it is hard to put much on one poll but Seltzer is the gold standard in Iowa.  If this pans out it’s a landslide coming.

She doesn’t make assumptions of the electorate makeup or put her own bias into polls. Post-2016 (I think?) she said, “I assumed nothing. My data told me.”

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#52310
1 minute ago, Js1 said:
It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won't put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn't want to play poker against Ann Selzer.

her track record means this poll is clearly showing a) late Movement to Harris, b) Trump Midwest slippage is real. 

"Incredibly gutsy"

Those two words show everything wrong with polls right now. Guts should have nothing to do with it. Report what you find. 

#52313
12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:
IOWA POLL by Des Moines/Selzer🔵 Kamala Harris 47%🔴 Donald Trump 44%

 

 

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#52314

From the poll article:

 

 

Quote

Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin. 

Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.  

 

 

Quote

Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.  

Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.  

Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.   

Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September. 

But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).  

 

Quote

Harris holds a small lead with likely Iowa voters who are younger than 35, 46% to 44% over Trump.  

Harris’ larger support among likely voters 65 and older, who prefer her 55% to 36%, could be a boon, because older Iowans tend to be more reliable voters and show up at disproportionately higher rates.  

 

Quote

Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.  

He carries Iowa men 52% to 38% and evangelicals 73% to 20%.  

Trump leads with those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in towns (49% to 40%). But Harris carries those in cities (61% to 33%) and suburbs (59% to 36%).  

Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris gets those with a college degree, 61% to 31%.  

 

Quote

Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.  

“It's not what I like about her, it's what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn't vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.” 

He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.  

 

#52321
12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

image.png.1cd36d93ce1578ff902b30b15e78c242.png

 

rapist are pro trump, duh 

dumbass will be preaching on his radio show monday - I just don’t see how trump can lose this one !  literally it was all trump in pa 

#52322

Even if every single undecided broke for Trump, he’d win 53-47 and +6 would still make me pretty confident about Tuesday

Queen Ann, don’t do this to us. Not sure my confidence can go past 100%

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#52323

 

Today: I was in the line for early voting. The woman who got in line behind us was middle-aged, by herself, and was breathlessly asking which line was correct. She smiled shyly and said “this is my first time voting.”Donald, you’re going to lose.

 

 

#52325
Just now, Js1 said:

 

Queen Ann, don’t do this to us. Not sure my confidence can go past 100%

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#52328
1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

To give some context, the final 2016 Selzer poll was Trump + 7 (he won by 9). The final 2020 Selzer poll was Trump +7 (he won by 8). 

And her final 2020 Senate poll was Ernst +4 and she won by 6

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#52331

I'm just gonna go out on limb here and suspect that two people just shat their pants.  Their names:

Ted Cruz

Rick Scott

#52333
3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

IMG_2243.jpeg

This is how absolutely beaten down the last 8 years have made me: my initial thought was, "Shit, that's going to send shockwaves to every unenthused reliable R voter in the country. Might have been better to be Trump +1-2."

That was 5 minutes ago though. I'm ready to fuck shit up.

#52336
Just now, BamaATL said:

I'm just gonna go out on limb here and suspect that two people just shat their pants.  Their names:

Ted Cruz

Rick Scott

Deb Fischer too. 

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#52339

I think it's pretty damn clear that wives are going against their Trumpy husbands in droves.

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#52340
Just now, aggie08 said:

I think it's pretty damn clear that wives are going against their Trumpy husbands in droves.

Older women remember life pre-Roe. I think this is a huge demo that’s being under considered 

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#52342
12 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

From the poll article:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump is underwater with old white guys.  Fucking fabulous.

#52343

CNN, dogshit that they are just changed all their headlines to suddenly women aren't responding to Trump.  Lol, pure dogshit network.  

#52345
10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I completely agree that the media ecosystem is completely broken, but I do have hope.  Someone, eventually, is going to realize that more Americans want actual news than infotainment, and they will emerge and crush the current mainstream crap we have going on.  The current media is bloated, massively in debt, and lost in the wilderness.  That is a situation that makes for perfect conditions for disruption.   

https://ground.news

#52348
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

He's not losing Texas.

Or Ohio. immamac keeps trying to make Ohio happen. 

#52350
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Older women remember life pre-Roe. I think this is a huge demo that’s being under considered 

Every white male pollster looking at all of their polls the last five months: "No way women care about abortion that much, better slide this thingy to the right about seven points..."

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