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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

lol, optimistic about what? Texas flipping? Otherwise WGAF. Also new state, new friends, imo. 

God no. Just that educated women in Texas would turn and vote for their daughters (two of these women have daughters). But they didn’t. 

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3 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

God no. Just that educated women in Texas would turn and vote for their daughters (two of these women have daughters). But they didn’t. 

Are any of them Catholic?  Honest question.

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

According to Kens5 here in San Antonio Bexar county is over 500k in early votes. How does that compare to 2020

There’s a thread that probably has that info. Huck had been tracking Texas by county in the lab thread.

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Somehow I feel like this Epstein shit won’t even make it onto the radar of the general public. 

Yeah, and I honestly wonder what percentage of Americans even knows why Epstein was a bad guy.

Half, maybe?

This is a seriously ignorant country on average, and it's compounded by the fact that a big subset is being willfully deceived.

 

Edited by TexArcher

Just now, TexArcher said:

Yeah, and I honestly wonder what percentage of Americans even knows why Epstein was a bad guy.

Half, maybe?

This is a seriously ignorant country on average, and it's compounded by the fact that about half of us are being willfully deceived.

I expect awareness was more the. You’d expect because so many right wing q nuts jumped on that conspiracy, tried to tie it to Clinton, etc. 

24 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

God no. Just that educated women in Texas would turn and vote for their daughters (two of these women have daughters). But they didn’t. 

I'm friends with a woman who is a doctor, who herself has had an abortion. She grew up a New England Republican. She voted for Trump in 2016 because was on the red team her entire life and didn't believe he was going to do all the things he plainly stated he wanted to do. After the 2016 election we stopped talking politics completely.

After Jan 6, I checked in to see if she'd shifted her position. Nope.

Hard for me to dissociate from her and her husband completely because we share several friends. We both strictly avoid political / news discussion.

4 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, and I honestly wonder what percentage of Americans even knows why Epstein was a bad guy.

Half, maybe?

This is a seriously ignorant country on average, and it's compounded by the fact that a big subset is being willfully deceived.

 

We are a stupid people but we like salacious content. Epstein fits the "news" "sex" Venn diagram well.

Edmund Fitzgerald Song keeps going through my head, particularly this line:

He said, "Fellas, it's been good to know ya"

Well shit, everyone have a good weekend, hope the ags lose, and the best we can do is to be kind to others, even our enemies, in the moment.  

9 hours ago, Macanudo said:

That's what I want to know.  I realize "why" it was filed in Amarillo (friendly MAGA judge) but I don't understand how it's allowed.   Neither CBS or Trump reside or do business there.   How is that allowed as the place for the lawsuit?

Two questions have to be answered here, one is "personal jurisdiction" and the other is venue.  Personal jurisdiction is constitutional and its existence gives the court the power to hear the case and its lack deprives the court of that power.  It attempts to measure the defendant's connections or contacts with the state in question and the fairness/foreseeability of being sued in the state.  It probably barely exists here because the case arises out of CBS' broadcast of the interview and subsequent actions, all of which were available to viewers in Texas, as CBS knew and intended.  That's probably enough.

Venue is not constitutional, it's a creature of statute.  Some statutes mandate where venue lies for certain kinds of cases, like patent infringement, where the suit must be filed where the defendant resides or commits acts of infringement and maintains a place of business (e.g. an Apple store for when Apple infringes patents).  If the suit is not filed in one of those places, venue is conclusively wrong and the suit must be dismissed or transferred to a district where venue is proper.

But a lot of cases have no "mandatory venue" statute, and this would be one of them.  Therefore, if personal jurisdiction is satisfied, so is venue, at least technically.  So, the judge can dismiss or transfer it if the venue is "inconvenient."  There are factors to consider here, one of which is a complete lack of connection of the plaintiff (and defendant) to the venue in question.  However, ultimately it is an "abuse of discretion" standard that mostly leaves it up to the judge.  The only way to appeal a judge's venue decision is by a "writ of mandamus," which is a very narrow type of appeal that is disfavored and typically unlikely to succeed.  It would seem that the political affinity between the 5th Circuit, Kazmethhead, and Trump mean this is effectively unappealable.

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I love Edmund Fitzgerald's voice.

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3 minutes ago, miguelito said:

I love Edmund Fitzgerald's voice.

Yup, his song "The Wreck of the Gordon Lightfoot" is an all-timer.

1 hour ago, hornmpa96 said:

Twice - You’re actually trying to apply the law. Unfortunately, Kaz-Know-Nothing doesn’t actually care about the law. He thinks God wants him to grant a victory to Trump and he will rule for Trump.

As you rightly point out, that will ultimately go through the 5th Circuit which is the most wretched hive of scum and villainy since Mos Eisley. In a 2-1 decision, they will uphold the Amarillo Moron’s decision.

Now, we’re at the Supreme Court. Thomas and Alito will threaten to show up at Court every day open carrying ARs if the Court takes the case. Ultimately the Court takes the case and Trump loses a 5-4 decision with Roberts and ACB joining the 3 liberal justices. Thomas pens a dissent written in crayon and blood that Trump should be able to file this lawsuit in Texas because he sent some nice Russians to his house and they fixed his RV which had broken down in Nebraska.

This timeline sucks.

All true, but half the reason for my posts are not to explain how it WILL go, but how it SHOULD go, if we weren't on this gotdam timeline.

Thirty some odd years ago, when I was a baby lawyer, I was gratified that the Fifth Circuit was one of the more balanced courts of appeal with solid jurists with a sense of humor like Irving Goldberg and even civil rights leaders like Wisdom and others.  And illustrious judicial UT alumni  I now find it disgusting and repugnant and probably the worst court of appeals.  That's really fucking embarrassing.

 

Edited by TwiceHorn

46 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, and I honestly wonder what percentage of Americans even knows why Epstein was a bad guy.

Half, maybe?

This is a seriously ignorant country on average, and it's compounded by the fact that a big subset is being willfully deceived.

 

There is a fairly good percentage voting for Harris that couldn’t tell you who Epstein is. We are not a country that is well educated on much of anything. We can tell you as a country who to watch for fantasy football. We can tell you what the big COLLEGE FOOTBAW matchups are, but the things that should have some relevance and importance to an average American are more unknown than known. We have almost completely lost our way.

Wife and I had dinner tonight avoiding Halloween kids like good republicans. After a few drinks she asked me how I voted. I told her. We left in separate cars as she had to collect kids. This is our text exchange:
image.thumb.jpeg.099ffbe270588597dbf99f53a4586bea.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.a4f2c45e293cf183b8ce97012d020a1f.jpeg
"Babe" is sure giving off "pal" vibes. Tread lightly, Buddy.
Just now, UpperWestside said:

There is a fairly good percentage voting for Harris that couldn’t tell you who Epstein is. We are not a country that is well educated on much of anything. We can tell you as a country who to watch for fantasy football. We can tell you what the big COLLEGE FOOTBAW matchups are, but the things that should have some relevance and importance to an average American are more unknown than known. We have almost completely lost our way.

This is intentional. The media is also complicit with this plan. 

Harris if she wins has the ultimate opportunity to pull us out of the oligarchy to eventual collapse doom loop. Let's see if she has the backbone to stand behind a tough FTC, SEC and has a strong AG to expedite both trust busting and start enforcing the actual securities laws that are clearly being violated by a certain class and bring back accountability. 

7 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Additionally, if he dumped a shitload of shares at once, trading would suspend and it would tank. 

Well, that's exactly what has happened the last two days.  He's selling like a mother fucker.

11 minutes ago, immamac said:

Still expensing the POs even though he's not issuing payment. 

I'm pretty sure after he loses again and eventually dies the expose on everything that was going on is going to make his supporters look even dumber than they do now. 

His followers will never notice. “Witch hunt,” etc. even after he’s dead they won’t wake up. 

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is intentional. The media is also complicit with this plan. 

Harris if she wins has the ultimate opportunity to pull us out of the oligarchy to eventual collapse doom loop. Let's see if she has the backbone to stand behind a tough FTC, SEC and has a strong AG to expedite both trust busting and start enforcing the actual securities laws that are clearly being violated by a certain class and bring back accountability. 

Keep Lina Khan.

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What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump.  As of now, Democrats might take the house,  losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball.  

Please, sack the fuck up. 

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Senior Harris campaign staffer neighbor able to  joined Halloween party late last night. Said she felt good. Checked her phone several times to reply to confidently to work questions. I think we’re good.

Edited by horncyclist

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2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump.  As of now, Democrats might take the house,  losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball.  

Please, sack the fuck up. 

Denzel Washington GIF

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump.  As of now, Democrats might take the house,  losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball.  

Please, sack the fuck up. 

We ain't losing shit, including the Senate.  

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump.  As of now, Democrats might take the house,  losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball.  

Please, sack the fuck up. 

 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Denzel Washington GIF

I am working on the most tedious of anti-trust filings.  Before I had to start doing that, the social media algorithm put those "Garbage" pics through. And these are people I have been friends with for 35+ years.  Sigh.  So just not a good start to my Friday.

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

lol, optimistic about what? Texas flipping? Otherwise WGAF. Also new state, new friends, imo. 

Yeah this is one thing I noticed leaving Houston. A lot of people we knew who would smile and be all friendly were raging Trumpers. I don't need that energy in my life.

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

There's an election to win Tuesday. In June there was like a 99% chance of a GOP sweep and a popular mandate for Donald Trump.  As of now, Democrats might take the house,  losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map, and the White House is a jump ball.  

Please, sack the fuck up. 

I'm tired of the "losses in the Senate appear to be minimal despite a terrible map" narrative in general.  Every map is terrible for Dems.  We can't afford to lose any seats.

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

I am working on the most tedious of anti-trust filings.  Before I had to start doing that, the social media algorithm put those "Garbage" pics through. And these are people I have been friends with for 35+ years.  Sigh.  So just not a good start to my Friday.

I know it's tough, but they've made their choice. The good news is you've got us. 

Shit, no wait, that's more bad news. Sorry about your Friday. 

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I know it's tough, but they've made their choice. The good news is you've got us. 

Shit, no wait, that's more bad news. Sorry about your Friday. 

Best bunch of assholes on the internet.

21 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is intentional. The media is also complicit with this plan. 

Harris if she wins has the ultimate opportunity to pull us out of the oligarchy to eventual collapse doom loop. Let's see if she has the backbone to stand behind a tough FTC, SEC and has a strong AG to expedite both trust busting and start enforcing the actual securities laws that are clearly being violated by a certain class and bring back accountability. 

This right here is a huge part of an actual way forward out of this mess. Anti-corruption, target oligarchs and monopolies with an emphasis on encouraging competitive markets and building small business. It's good policy and would be enormously popular.  

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Best bunch of assholes on the internet.

movie gifs — kane52630: Independence Day (1996) dir. Roland...

GA overnight takeaways

1.  3.695 million have voted

2.  Women now outpace men by 438k, however it's a .1% downtick from yesterday

3.  2020 non voters now make up 734k, the 18-29 demo is 264k  

 

Today is the last day of EV, though mail in will continue to come thru.  However, to date, the total mail in vote has been 230k, at that rate, any amount that continues to come in will be statistically marginal.  This time tomorrow, final data from EV will be out, and I will work on a final projection in the prediction thread.  My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

 

8 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Detroit Free Press is also Harris +3

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Detroit Free Press is also Harris +3

Hooray!

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 

 

My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

 

Compared to less than 5 million in 2020? Seems good?

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26 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

As an 80s kid who was heavily into the British post-punk new wave genre, this is a fantastic reference.

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Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

4 minutes ago, texastough said:

Compared to less than 5 million in 2020? Seems good?

That's my guess based on everything we are seeing.  I took what I am calling a standard attrition of 2% and applied it across the board (i.e. deaths, people moving out of state, etc.).  Then I added the 2020 non voters to date and add 10% on top of that for day of non voters.  When I put all that together, I come to 5.7 million.  I didn't account for the fact that 8.3% of day of 2020 voters have participated in EV, so it might be a little lower, but I don't think by much (think 5.4 to 5.7 million total votes).  At any rate, apathy is always the Democrats biggest enemy, and to be quite frank, I don't see any (at least that jumps out as a huge statistical anomaly).  If I had one slight, and I do mean slight concern, it's that the African American early vote is down relative to percentage by 1 point, I wish that wasn't the case.  

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Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

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21 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Best bunch of assholes on the internet.

Pornhub has entered the chat...

 

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?
Dude, when you've said & done as much shit that would be an automatic disqualifier for any other candidate than dotard & none of it seems to stick it just gets tossed on the pile of "no fucks left to give."
1 minute ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

Last night mine said she’ll probably need therapy if he wins. At least she recognizes it, I guess. 

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

See how differently we deal with stress than Trump? 

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